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SET's 4th time RSI(50m)< 30 since it's inceptionEvery time the SET Index enters the RSI "red zone" (oversold territory), the long-term outcome has consistently been positive. Historically, the following 8–10 years have delivered strong returns, with some bull markets reaching over 15% annually. The duration of time spent in this red zone has also been decreasing—21 months during the 1997 crisis, 6 months in 2008, and just 3 months in 2020. Currently, we are 5 months into this oversold zone. But unlike developed markets, Thailand’s stock market is largely liquidity-driven rather than purely fundamentals-driven. That means prices can often disconnect from actual economic conditions due to capital flows and investor sentiment. When liquidity dries up, prices fall sharply—but that also creates mispricing and higher information asymmetry, which can lead to alpha opportunities. This is exactly why we need to pay even closer attention now.
SET:SET
by JirathB
DOLLAR INDEXThe relationship between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10-year US Treasury yield is generally positive but has shown signs of weakening and occasional breakdowns recently. Key Points: Typical Positive Correlation: Historically, when the 10-year Treasury yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and when yields fall, the dollar weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar. Conversely, lower yields reduce dollar appeal. Mechanism: The 10-year yield reflects investor expectations about inflation, economic growth, and Federal Reserve policy. Higher yields often signal stronger growth or inflation, supporting a stronger dollar due to higher real returns on US assets. Recent Weakening of Correlation: Since early 2025, this positive correlation has weakened significantly. Despite rising 10-year yields (around 4.4% to 4.5%), the DXY has hovered near the 98–99 range and even declined over 10% year-to-date. This divergence is attributed to: Investors re-evaluating the dollar’s reserve currency status and shifting capital to other markets (e.g., European equities). Outflows from US assets amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Asynchronous monetary policy cycles globally, with some central banks hiking or cutting rates at different paces than the Fed. Market Sentiment and Safe-Haven Flows: In times of stress, the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven can be challenged, further complicating the yield-dollar relationship. Conclusion While the 10-year Treasury yield and the US dollar index usually move together, recent market dynamics have disrupted this pattern. Rising yields have not translated into a stronger dollar in 2025, reflecting broader shifts in investor sentiment, geopolitical risks, and global monetary policy divergence.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Us500:What is going to happen?hello friends👋 This time we are here with the analysis of us500, an important and vital index in the market that is being talked about a lot these days. Well, let's go to the analysis, you will see that with the drop we had, a lower floor was made and the price was quickly supported and pumped by buyers. Now it is clear that an ascending pattern has been formed, which is a very strong support in the specified area and a good buying point that you can enter into a transaction with capital and risk management. Note that if the floor is broken and the stop loss is placed, our bullish pattern becomes invalid and we have to wait for lower floors. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheHunters_Company
1
Big CorrectionThe S&P index. The chart shows the potential end of the final rally from the 2009 low. Currently, with this rally from the recent 4,800 low, we are still in a correction period that will end in late October (highs and lows are irrelevant), & We have a date coming up in August so let's see what happens there. After this period, we will have a rally combined with uncertainty and unjustified speculative movements (bubble) that could take us to the final peak, which I expect in 2026. This remains a possibility, but don't base your trades on it. However, caution is often good.
SP:SPXShort
by mmj50
uraniumThe 10-year Treasury bond yield plays a significant role in the energy markets, including uranium, by influencing financing costs, investment decisions, and broader economic sentiment, which in turn affect uranium demand and pricing dynamics. Significance of the 10-Year Bond Yield in Uranium and Energy Markets: Benchmark for Financing Costs The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs for utilities and mining companies involved in uranium production and nuclear energy infrastructure. Higher yields increase the cost of capital, potentially delaying or raising the cost of new uranium mine developments and nuclear plant investments. Conversely, lower yields reduce financing costs, supporting expansion and production. Indicator of Economic and Inflation Expectations Rising 10-year yields often signal expectations of stronger economic growth and inflation, which can boost energy demand, including uranium for nuclear power generation. Declining yields typically reflect economic caution or slowdown, which may temper energy demand growth. Impact on Utility Procurement Behavior As uranium accounts for only about 5–10% of nuclear power generation costs, utilities prioritize securing supply to avoid operational disruptions, even at higher prices. When bond yields are stable or falling (indicating lower financing costs and economic uncertainty), utilities are more likely to lock in long-term uranium contracts aggressively, driving prices higher. Recent market conditions with the 10-year yield around 4.5% have coincided with utilities purchasing uranium in record quantities, pushing prices to 15-year highs. Geopolitical and Supply Risk Amplification The uranium market is sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially given that over half of global uranium supply and processing is controlled by countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rising bond yields amid geopolitical tensions can increase risk premiums on uranium prices as investors and utilities seek supply security. Investor Confidence and Capital Flows The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor confidence and risk appetite. Higher yields can attract capital away from commodities toward fixed income, potentially dampening speculative interest in uranium. Conversely, lower yields can boost commodity investment appeal as investors seek higher returns, supporting uranium prices. In essence, the 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial macro-financial gauge that indirectly shapes uranium market dynamics by affecting financing, demand expectations, and risk perceptions, thereby influencing uranium prices and investment decisions in the energy sector. Key Use Cases of Uranium Uranium serves critical functions across multiple sectors: Nuclear Energy Fuel for commercial reactors generating electricity which Provides 10% of global electricity with low carbon emissions Medical Isotopes ,the Production of radioisotopes (e.g., Technetium-99m) Enables cancer diagnostics and treatment through PET scans the Military/Defense use uranium for Nuclear weapons , naval propulsion systems and the Powering of submarines and aircraft carriers Space Exploration using Nuclear thermal propulsion with Potential fuel for long-duration space missions. Scientific Research and Geological dating and particle physics which Studies earth's age and fundamental particles all apply uranium . Demand drivers: 72 new nuclear reactors under construction globally (as of 2025) Medical isotope market growth (7.2% CAGR projected) Space agency investments in nuclear propulsion Investment Considerations Price volatility: Uranium spot prices impact producer profitability but long-term contracts provide stability Sector-specific risks: Regulatory constraints, waste management challenges, and geopolitical factors affect uranium investments Growth areas: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and radioisotope production represent emerging opportunities Conclusion: Uranium's value stems from its diverse applications in energy, medicine, defense, and science. While no dedicated "uranium bond" exists, the sector's performance is reflected in mining stocks and long-term contracts. The metal's fundamental importance in clean energy and advanced technology underpins its long-term market position.
TRADU:URANIUMLong
by Shavyfxhub
URANIUMThe 10-year Treasury bond yield plays a significant role in the energy markets, including uranium, by influencing financing costs, investment decisions, and broader economic sentiment, which in turn affect uranium demand and pricing dynamics. Significance of the 10-Year Bond Yield in Uranium and Energy Markets: Benchmark for Financing Costs The 10-year Treasury yield serves as a benchmark for long-term borrowing costs for utilities and mining companies involved in uranium production and nuclear energy infrastructure. Higher yields increase the cost of capital, potentially delaying or raising the cost of new uranium mine developments and nuclear plant investments. Conversely, lower yields reduce financing costs, supporting expansion and production. Indicator of Economic and Inflation Expectations Rising 10-year yields often signal expectations of stronger economic growth and inflation, which can boost energy demand, including uranium for nuclear power generation. Declining yields typically reflect economic caution or slowdown, which may temper energy demand growth. Impact on Utility Procurement Behavior As uranium accounts for only about 5–10% of nuclear power generation costs, utilities prioritize securing supply to avoid operational disruptions, even at higher prices. When bond yields are stable or falling (indicating lower financing costs and economic uncertainty), utilities are more likely to lock in long-term uranium contracts aggressively, driving prices higher. Recent market conditions with the 10-year yield around 4.5% have coincided with utilities purchasing uranium in record quantities, pushing prices to 15-year highs. Geopolitical and Supply Risk Amplification The uranium market is sensitive to geopolitical risks, especially given that over half of global uranium supply and processing is controlled by countries within Russia’s sphere of influence. Rising bond yields amid geopolitical tensions can increase risk premiums on uranium prices as investors and utilities seek supply security. Investor Confidence and Capital Flows The 10-year Treasury yield reflects investor confidence and risk appetite. Higher yields can attract capital away from commodities toward fixed income, potentially dampening speculative interest in uranium. Conversely, lower yields can boost commodity investment appeal as investors seek higher returns, supporting uranium prices. In essence, the 10-year Treasury yield is a crucial macro-financial gauge that indirectly shapes uranium market dynamics by affecting financing, demand expectations, and risk perceptions, thereby influencing uranium prices and investment decisions in the energy sector. Key Use Cases of Uranium Uranium serves critical functions across multiple sectors: Nuclear Energy Fuel for commercial reactors generating electricity which Provides 10% of global electricity with low carbon emissions Medical Isotopes ,the Production of radioisotopes (e.g., Technetium-99m) Enables cancer diagnostics and treatment through PET scans the Military/Defense use uranium for Nuclear weapons , naval propulsion systems and the Powering of submarines and aircraft carriers Space Exploration using Nuclear thermal propulsion with Potential fuel for long-duration space missions. Scientific Research and Geological dating and particle physics which Studies earth's age and fundamental particles all apply uranium . Demand drivers: 72 new nuclear reactors under construction globally (as of 2025) Medical isotope market growth (7.2% CAGR projected) Space agency investments in nuclear propulsion Investment Considerations Price volatility: Uranium spot prices impact producer profitability but long-term contracts provide stability Sector-specific risks: Regulatory constraints, waste management challenges, and geopolitical factors affect uranium investments Growth areas: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and radioisotope production represent emerging opportunities Conclusion: Uranium's value stems from its diverse applications in energy, medicine, defense, and science. While no dedicated "uranium bond" exists, the sector's performance is reflected in mining stocks and long-term contracts. The metal's fundamental importance in clean energy and advanced technology underpins its long-term market position.
TRADU:URANIUMLong
by Shavyfxhub
UK100 Bearish Setup Developing📉 Weekly Overview: Price is currently held by a significant weekly resistance level. Last week formed bearish price action, indicating potential exhaustion from buyers and room for sellers to step in. 📉 Daily Chart: Although no strong momentum candle yet, price has already broken internal bullish structure to the downside. EMA50 is starting to flatten, hinting at a potential momentum shift. 📉 4H Chart: Clear sign of bearish transition – uptrend line is broken, price is now trading below the 50EMA, and we recently see strong seller momentum candles. This adds further confluence to bearish bias. 🔍 Plan: Bias: Bearish Entry: After bearish confirmation candle on 1H or 4H retracement to premium zone Targets: TP1: Previous 4H low TP2: Daily support zone Invalidation: Break and close above 4H 50EMA and recent structure high
PEPPERSTONE:UK100Short
by Amitrading
NASDAQ Bullish Play into Liquidity Before Potential ReversalForecast: NOTE: At this moment, this is a forecast and trades will be taken dependent on live PA. Price has reacted strongly off the 21,410–21,430 Daily Order Block, suggesting bullish intent. If bullish structure holds, I expect a move into the 22,060–22,130 liquidity zone, where sell-side setups could form. This is a classic Buy to Sell model: Buy from OB at ~21,420 Target liquidity above recent highs (~22,100+) Look for shorts after sweep into 22,130–22,220 range Invalidation: Break and close below 21,410 suggests the OB failed — potential deeper drop toward 20,700.
IG:NASDAQLong
by SKA_CAPITAL
Another drop for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD broke the low of the previous week just as I've said in my outlook. After that it went up again. This pair is still in a bigger correction down. So next week it could drop again into the direction of the bullish Weekly FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade short term shorts to the previous Weekly lows. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
Nifty 50 at a Turning Point? Key Levels & Market Outlook AheadThe Nifty 50 ended the week at 25,112.40 with a gain of 1.59% If Nifty sustains below 25,033, selling pressure may increase. However, a move above 25,192 could restore bullish momentum. Key Levels for the Upcoming Week 🔹 Price Action Pivot Zone: The crucial range to watch for potential trend reversals or continuation is 25,033 -25,192. 🔹 Support & Resistance Levels: Support: S1: 24,797 S2: 24,482 S3: 24,093 Resistance: R1: 25,431 R2: 25,750 R3: 26,144 Market Outlook ✅ Bullish Scenario: A sustained breakout above 25,192 could attract buying momentum, driving Nifty towards R1 (25,431) and beyond. ❌ Bearish Scenario: A drop below 25,033 may trigger selling pressure, pushing Nifty towards S1 (24,797) or lower. Disclaimer: lnkd.in
NSE:NIFTY
by ALICEBLUE
Bank Nifty Weekly Insights: Key Levels & TrendsBank Nifty ended the week at 56,252.85 with a gain of 1.31% Key Levels for the Upcoming Week 🔹 Price Action Pivot Zone: The critical range to monitor for potential trend reversals or continuation is 56,135 to 56,372 🔹 Support & Resistance Levels: Support Levels: S1: 55,781 S2: 55,308 S3: 54,726 Resistance Levels: R1: 56,729 R2: 57,206 R3: 57,786 Market Outlook ✅ Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 56,372 could trigger buying momentum, potentially driving Bank Nifty towards R1 (56,729) and beyond. ❌ Bearish Scenario: If the index falls below 56,135, selling pressure may increase, pulling it towards S1 (56,729) and lower levels. Disclaimer: lnkd.in
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by ALICEBLUE
Weekly Volatility Snapshot Good Evening -- Here we are again looking down the barrel of another week tracking the volatility within the broader markets! Let us begin -- Last week, the TVC:VIX was trending down as the S&P500 rotated upwards making it within 1.43% of highs, before selling off on war conflict news to end the week -- spiking the VIX again. We are now 114 days into the correction with uncertainty still being the only thing that is defined. However, it does seem that buyers are stepping in during these times of selling off. But, without lifting the uncertainty of trade deals and deadlines or negative news cycles, we could just be locking in a lower high and within another bear market phase. As we trend into the 2nd half of June, the SP:SPX has an IV (16.18%) entering the week trending 72% to it's yearly range suggesting slightly expensive premium. This is up from 52% IVp last week. Now in comparison to what is happening, HV10 (9.94%) is showing a lower volatility range than stated IV by -6.24%. This can be important when considering a premium disadvantage with a consolidating VIX under already expensive premium. The 'strength of IV' here is 61% -- and in turn my weighted implied ranges for the week are $5,914.78 - $6,039.16. If there happens to be a volatility spike this week due to anything out of the blue, we will find our range expanded to long-term trending means of quarterly values, that being HV63 (30.39%). This would create a 'strength of IV' of 188% and a massive spike in the VIX -- respectfully these weighted implied ranges would be $5,786.82 - $6,161.12. As always, I hope you enjoy the weekly write up and have a great week of trading ranges! Know you ABCs and REMEMBER stay hedged people. Till next week, CHEERS.
TVC:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Nifty Chart Analysis – Major Breakout or Breakdown Ahed Assending Triangle Chart pattern in Nifty- Breakout Possible ? As of June 21, 2025, the Nifty 50 index is showing a strong and potentially decisive Ascending Triangle Pattern on the 3-hour time frame. This formation typically indicates a bullish breakout if confirmed with volume. Let’s dive deep into the technical outlook and key levels that traders and investors should watch. Current Market Overview Current Nifty Level: ~25,080 Pattern Identified: Ascending Triangle Time Frame: 3H (Medium-Term to Long-Term Insight) An Ascending Triangle is a bullish continuation pattern formed by a horizontal resistance line and a rising trendline of higher lows. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zone: Immediate Resistance: 26,280 (All-Time High) Breakout Target 2: 27,280 Breakout Target 3: 28000 (Long-Term) If Nifty breaks above the 26,280 level with strong volume confirmation, the next upward targets will be 27,280 and possibly 28000 , based on the measured move from the triangle height. Support Levels: Latest Support: 24,250 Post-Election Breakout Support: 22,800 Major Support (Election Result Day Low): 21,300 If any major negative trigger (geopolitical or macroeconomic) occurs, a sharp correction can’t be ruled out. The levels mentioned will act as key demand zones. Potential Global Risks While the technical setup is bullish, external risks could spoil the party: Geopolitical Conflicts: Iran vs. Israel India vs. Pakistan China vs. US tensions Macro-Economic Triggers: Spike in Inflation or Crude Oil Prices US Fed Rate Hike Surprises Global Recession Fears In such cases, a steep fall toward 22,800 or even 21,300 may occur. ✅ Conclusion & Strategy The current Nifty setup presents a classic high-reward-low-risk opportunity for long-term traders if a breakout is confirmed. However, caution is advised if global uncertainties increase. Investors should: Wait for a decisive breakout above 26,280 with volume. Maintain a stop-loss around 24,250 on long positions. Consider booking partial profits near resistance levels and re-entering on pullbacks. How Traders Can Prepare for the Next Move Whether a breakout or breakdown happens, traders must: Use proper stop-loss and risk management Wait for volume confirmation Watch for FII/DII activity Combine price action with Data Analysis Important Note: This analysis is based on current chart patterns and known global events. Always use proper risk management and consult with a financial advisor before taking investment decisions. 💬 Like the chart if you found it useful 🗣 Comment your views or questions 👤 Follow us for regular breakout updates 🔁 Share this chart with your trading community and friends who follow Nifty! ✅ Let’s grow together with smart chart analysis and technical strategies.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by manojshinde27
1
Great recovery by Nifty to end the week. Nifty has shown a great recovery to end the week at 25112 despite persisting global uncertainties. This again shows imminent strength of Indian markets and confidence on the local factors by Bulls. Nifty however is now entering a tough resistance zone which starts exactly from 25113 and extends till 25251. Once we get a closing above 25251 the Bulls will try to control the market with more strength. Till that happens it can still go in any direction. The supports for Nifty remain at 24869, 24713, 24480 (Mother line support), 24175 and finally 23838 (Father line support). If any major further global escalation happens during the weekend and we get a closing below 23838 then Bears can become more powerful and they might have potential to push market further down towards 23047 or below. Things hang in balance despite a strong closing on Friday as the shadow of the candle is still neutral. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment