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DXY on the EdgeTrump's trade policies in Q1 have significantly influenced global markets, with critics arguing that his import tariffs are destabilizing the economic and monetary order. These measures have sparked concerns about U.S. dollar confidence, potentially leading to financial instability and broader economic consequences. 🔹 DXY Technical Analysis The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical juncture, currently hovering around 103.376—a key level that will determine the next major move. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If DXY holds above 103.376, it may push towards the 106.160 and 107.595 resistance levels. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A break below 103.376 could send DXY further down, targeting 101.805 and 100.235 as potential support zones. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 106.160, 107.595 Support: 103.376, 101.805, 100.235 ⚠ Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm with your own strategy before making any trading decisions.
INDEX:DXY
by juniormoseki1
Bear Market FormingVery big things happening in the economy this quarter, mainly trade wars, real wars, and new policies. Job cuts 100k+ government job cuts, 25-50k more expected in the coming months. In addition to 35k tech layoffs, and 38,956 retail job cut announcement. So probably 225k+ jobs lost this year The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million in February. Tarrifs are divided, some calling it inflationary, but statements from JPM: "Roughly half of the GDP decline from higher tariffs is attributed to a negative sentiment shock related to rising trade policy uncertainty." and RBC: "Based on 2024 import data from Canada, Mexico, and China, the announced tariffs could boost total U.S. tariff revenues by about $300 billion" at least show potential offsets. War has been ongoing, but increased economic activity from Russia, and stimulus in the EU increase liquidity in the markets. But all of that is going to take time to settle, so you cant write off another 6 months of a downtrend of up to 10% in equities - until we get more information introduced to the market.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trendytrend
1
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on. # Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions. ## Key Price Levels and Their Significance The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500: - **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance. - **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance. - **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance. - **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty. - **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level. - **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements. ## Options Market Data Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis: 1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating: - Unusually bearish sentiment - Hedging activity by institutional investors - Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0 The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning. 2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates: - Market makers are net short gamma - They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges - This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement. ## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components: ### Price Action & Moving Averages The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend. ### Momentum Indicators - **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading. - **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure. - **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure. ### Volume Analysis - **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure). - **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution. ### Chart Patterns - **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion. - **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend. ## Volatility Assessment The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations: - Reduce position size - Use wider stop losses - Expect larger price swings This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings. ## Trading Recommendation Logic The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of: 1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes 2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral 3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns 4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum The strategy recommends: - Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance) - Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points) - Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400 - Reduced position size due to high volatility The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns. ## Educational Elements The dashboard incorporates several educational elements: 1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure. 2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions. 3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications. 4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment. This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by user2839409
NAS100 OUTLOOKAnalysis of NAS100 (H4 Timeframe) Key Observations: Downtrend Structure The market has been in a consistent downtrend since February 2025. Lower highs and lower lows indicate strong bearish momentum. Key Support Zone (Near 19,225) The price is currently sitting at a critical support level. If buyers step in, we could see a bounce to previous resistance levels. If this level breaks, the next potential target could be around 18,800 - 18,700. No Clear Bullish Signs Yet The price is still making lower highs. A bullish reversal would require a strong rejection or bullish candlestick pattern at support. Possible Trade Setups Bullish Setup (Buy Trade - If Support Holds) ✅ Entry: If price forms a bullish reversal pattern around 19,225 - 19,300. 🎯 Target: First target 19,800, second target 20,400. 🛑 Stop-Loss: Below 19,100 to avoid fakeouts. 📈 Confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing candles or double-bottom formations. Bearish Setup (Sell Trade - If Support Breaks) ❌ Entry: Below 19,100 after a strong bearish close. 🎯 Target: First target 18,800, second target 18,600. 🛑 Stop-Loss: Above 19,400 to protect against false breakdowns. Final Thoughts: Right now, NAS100 is at a make-or-break level. If buyers defend support, a rally to 19,800+ is likely. If support breaks, expect a further drop to 18,800 or lower. Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
FX:NAS100
by THE_FOREX_BLUEPRINT
1
eu50 Despite the narrative around Europe and its markets, there's surprisingly a sharp turnaround ahead. It's all thanks to those egregious errors engineered back in February. Whatever hand forced them to print has already lost their position and is now out of the market. The current sells we're seeing are just data entries setting up an explosive measured move toward the 88 level on the 1W chart. A quick glance at the 1W chart will entice all the noobs to start stacking sells and going all-in short, creating easy order pairing. Since the EU is in no hurry to show their hand, they'll simply ride the bearish narrative until the real global market sell-off happens. By timing it this way, they'll set up for an astonishing bounce while most markets slip lower. Part of their buy-side confidence probably comes from belief in their AI unicorns—Europe does have a formidable trio backing them up. The daily chart screams a sell-squeeze nuke is incoming. I'll enjoy watching the flood of "EU economy in trouble" articles hitting the wires this month, but mark my words—they will have a face-melting bounce. I'd call it a full turnaround, but knowing Europe and their track record, I wouldn't be surprised if they somehow mess up their beautiful CC entry.
CAPITALCOM:EU50Long
by BIGPOPPA999
US500 (S&P 500 ) INDEX TRADE IDEA 1 APRIL 2025Based on technical analysis, the US500 (S&P 500) has broken below its long-term ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. The bearish momentum is evident as the price has closed below the lower trendline, and a pullback to the 5,558 - 5,794 supply zone could provide a shorting opportunity. This area aligns with previous structural resistance, making it a key level for institutional sellers. If price action confirms rejection within this zone, a sell setup targeting 5,279, 5,157, and ultimately 4,803 could be viable. The trade remains invalid if price breaks above 5,860, as this would indicate a shift in market sentiment. From a fundamental perspective, growing concerns over US-China tariff tensions could pressure corporate earnings and drive further downside. Additionally, economic slowdown indicators, including weakening consumer spending and rising corporate debt, are weighing on investor sentiment. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report in April 2025 will be a key event to watch; a strong labor market report may keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish stance, leading to further stock market declines, while a weak report could reinforce recession fears. Given these factors, a short position remains favorable as long as the market respects the supply zone resistance. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected shifts in monetary policy or geopolitical developments that could impact overall market direction.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by karabompesi
ger 30 review GER shows a mild bearish undertone with potential for a larger drawdown if global risk isn't contained (I'll cover global risk in another post). Doing a top-down approach, the weekly chart is the most concerning—it signals a quarterly sell-off aiming to clear a long-range liquidity pocket. I'm eyeing 21480 as the profit-booking event, likely occurring around the 5.12-28.25 area. Another eyesore is the pseudo swing at the 2.10.-3.10.25 range. Easy pickings here, as the semi-quarter liquidity pocket built during this span is just price establishing its first-half data entries. For a more immediate weekly play, sells to sweep 22,250 are easy calls—I wouldn't be surprised by an early-week sell-off, mid-week wick formation dipping into a WVol discount, and then continuation, or something similar within that cycle. Important note: CC entries are nearly off the table completely, so what retail traders call "consolidation" will just be an easy shakeout. Eager sellers get chopped first, followed by breakout traders getting eaten alive. The golden signals to watch here are Cerberus calling weekly sells and a 3D Cerberus sell as well. Moving to the daily intraweek forecast, we have a Friday jefe formation, but I'm not eager to play it as the simpler position is the DVol sell. There are still plenty of errors from the 2.21-3.4.25 span that haven't been cleaned up. Additionally, the 3.13.25 error CC just got cleared, helping form the jefe. Early week, I'm anticipating a fake-out followed by a sell-off. By mid-week, we're aiming to clear the 2.21 error and set up the early month open trap. Note that the WVol entry will be the third leg on the 1M timeframe—easy sells for the larger sell-side target at the 1M CC entry. With this perspective, expect the fake-out potentially lasting until around 4.12.25, after which the real move unfolds. Heading into April, don't be the fool trying to buy the "market structure shift, pullback" setups.
FX:GER30Short
by BIGPOPPA999
DAX 30th Marz 2025 - Recovering but not really! 20% Loss ahead! The German DAX did an impressive rally during the last weeks. The Index has less losses than the SPX. But- in the past, the DAX was never able, to hold his relative advantage to main indexes. Technically side, the 3 Week Chart shows a special situation in RSI and Slow Stochastic, with predictable losses in the past. All in all: Short recovery even with new highs possible, bu t expect the Dax within the next 6 months much lower - price area around 17000 EUR:
XETR:DAXShort
by Flyerdan
1
US30The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) this week is showing a bearish direction, driven by several factors: 1. **Tariff Concerns**: The announcement of new tariffs, particularly a 25% tariff on auto imports, has caused market uncertainty. Investors are wary of potential inflation and the impact on corporate earnings. 2. **Inflation and Interest Rate Fears**: Ongoing concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's policies on interest rates are also contributing to market volatility. 3. **Upcoming Earnings Reports**: Key earnings reports, including Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers, are creating uncertainty. Depending on these results, market sentiment could either stabilize or worsen. Given these factors, the market is leaning bearish this week, and more volatility can be expected depending on upcoming economic data and corporate earnings releases.
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by Jhosey
BUY EVERY DIP, HOLD FOR THE NEXT 7-MONTH CYCLE UNTIL OCTOBERThere are the current turmoil by tariffs and perceived recession, yet, the cycles strongly support a further advance from the March lows until October 2025. The bottom in March 2020 formed the base for the 5 year bull cycle nested within the larger 13 year cycle. PRICE The 2020 crash low formed at 18213.65, the decline in 2022 formed a bottom at 28660.94. We would have a price range Low - Low of (+10447.29 pts) (28660.94 - 18213.65) = 10447.29 units By projection if the range between the first two bottoms is 10447.29 we would expect the third bottom connecting three expanding points to be at 1.618 of 10447.29 points from 28660.94 28660.94 + (10447.29 x 1.618) = 45564.66 This makes the current top at 45073.63 through 45564.66 level a major support whereas its also a minor resistance for some correction and we expect price to move through this level. TIME Time connecting the three points 23/03/2020 - 03/01/2022 - 10/10/2022 with March 2020 as starting point would give us a time count (0.0 - 651 days - 931 days). We find that between the two bottoms the top in Jan 2022 came in at 651 days. By projection we expect the next bottom to be at least 209 weeks or 1463 days from 10/10/2022 with a top located at a Phi variation of 651. We would project a time range 1064 - 1099 days for a top and a decline into the third bottom 1463 days from 10/10/2022 and 2394 days from 23/03/2020. Trade safe, good luck.
TVC:DJILong
by Fairmont-Markets