DXY has finally arrived at our final POI. What next?DXY has finally arrived at a point I marked out for you since. I called it out and I was called a madman.
We may experience some downwards pressure and it already started during the Asian session. We have to wait for further confirmation to know if it wants to continue the bullish movement or fall.
Let's be patient for now.
Market indices
Decision Zone for DXY This Week: Around 97.600After a significant downward expansion in DXY, we observed a consolidation around last week's low. This week, the market opened with a pullback.
The first stop for this pullback appears to be the current daily fractal high candle and the weekly bearish FVG on the chart. We can assess potential selling pressure from this area on lower timeframes. We'll be monitoring the wicks within this zone, along with any newly forming FVGs.
If the price breaks above this area, our next points of interest will be the gaps within the zone above the 0.5 swing level, and ultimately the swing high itself as the final target.
Given the current setup, we believe there are promising trading opportunities on EURUSD.
Take care until the next update!
NASDAQ price dropAfter the Nasdaq price reaches around 23642.2, a historic drop will occur and the target is to drop to 16308.
Whatever happens at the highest price, the final destination is towards 16308.
I have identified the price levels in the middle of this expected drop that can cause the price to correct.
IG:NASDAQ
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Pro Analysis | 1H Chart |1. Strong Bullish Momentum
DXY broke out sharply above the 99.41 resistance, showing clear strength from bulls with minimal pullbacks during the rally.
2. Short-Term Rejection at Supply
Price was rejected from the 99.978 zone — a key supply area. This indicates the presence of active sellers near the psychological 100 level.
3. Retesting Breakout Structure
Currently hovering just above 99.669, the DXY is retesting the previous breakout level. This could act as short-term support if bullish momentum resumes.
4. Next Key Zones
Resistance: 99.978 → 100.534
Support: 99.411 → 98.92
Break below 99.411 may invalidate the breakout.
5. Outlook
Bias remains bullish above 99.41. However, failure to reclaim 99.978 soon may signal temporary exhaustion or consolidation before next leg up.
Wall Street Very Expensive: Time for Europe and China?1) The S&P 500 valuation has reached its late 2021 record
In the second quarter of 2025, the valuation of the U.S. market, represented by the S&P 500, returned to its record levels of late 2021. The S&P 500 has been reaching new all-time highs consistently since early July. In contrast, European and Chinese markets appear undervalued. In Europe, indices such as the Stoxx 600 and the Eurostoxx 50 remain below their historical highs. There is catch-up potential, especially as valuation remains reasonable. Technically, these markets offer attractive setups. In China, the potential is even more pronounced. Chinese markets are significantly behind, both technically and fundamentally. It would simply be a matter of returning to their former peaks.
Although U.S. corporate earnings remain strong, the current valuation of the S&P 500 limits its short-term upside potential. Conversely, Europe—and especially China—offers a more attractive risk/reward profile at this point in the cycle, both in terms of market valuation and technical analysis. While the S&P 500’s long-term trend remains bullish, it may therefore be wise to rebalance slightly in favor of European and Chinese equities.
The first chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the flagship Shenzhen stock exchange index.
The second chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the EuroStoxx 50 futures contract, with a market that has not yet exceeded its historical high—unlike the S&P 500 index.
2) The Shiller PE (or CAPE Ratio) is the best option to compare U.S., European and Chinese equity market valuations
The CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio), also called the Shiller PE, is a financial indicator that measures stock market valuation. It compares the current price of an index, such as the S&P 500, to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past ten years. Unlike the standard PE ratio based on a single year’s earnings, the CAPE smooths out cyclical fluctuations to provide a more stable, long-term view of valuation.
While the Shiller PE of the S&P 500 has returned to its 2021 record, that of the European and especially Chinese equity markets remains well behind. There is therefore still significant catch-up potential for Chinese and European stocks compared to U.S. stocks according to this fundamental valuation metric.
The chart below, produced by Barclays Research, shows a comparison of equity market valuations using the CAPE ratio between China, the United States, and Europe.
The Warren Buffett indicator, for its part, proposes a valuation comparison using the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. Here too, the message is clear: the Chinese equity market is significantly cheaper than the U.S. equity market. The table below is taken from the website Gurufocus.
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Smoothie in One Hand, Chart in the Other: Your Vacation ManualSome traders bring a beach read. Others bring their TradingView charts.
It’s the heat of the summer and we figured, why not take it easy with a breeze of lightweight lines to pair with your mezcal espresso martini? Let’s talk about how to relax while still watching the markets.
🏄♂️ Market Never Sleeps… But You Should
Vacations are supposed to be about unplugging, but for traders, that’s just code for “I’ll switch to the app instead.”
And we don’t blame you. With all that’s going on — US-EU tariff deal, stocks at record highs, and Ethereum BITSTAMP:ETHUSD outperforming Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD in a monster July run — it’s only natural for market participants to be hooked at this time.
But watch for those signs of getting overly attached. Studies show performance suffers when you're overcooked — like your last scalp trade on Powell Day. So yes, that mojito matters. Just don’t place a leveraged position on a pool float.
📅 Timing the Market… and Your Booking
Let’s talk timing. The pros know not to schedule getaways during Nonfarm Payrolls week or FOMC decision day. (Unless your idea of relaxing is explaining yield curves to your kids on a ferry across lake Como.)
Instead, try planning your time off during historically low-volatility periods. Summer often sees volume dry up like your skin without sunscreen. Think August’s fairly dry weeks — when even the algorithms seem to be on holiday. As always, consult with the Economic Calendar to know when these are.
Bonus tip: if you’re flying and you wanna stay wired in, go for premarket or after-hours shifts. Nothing says “seasoned trader” like placing an order while the flight attendant gathers everyone’s attention for the safety demo.
🧴 SPF 50 and the S&P 500: Know Your Risk Exposure
In these scorchers outside, you wouldn’t step out without sunscreen, right? But would you let your positions roast unsupervised?
Use stop losses like you use sunblock: generously and repeatedly. Even better — scale back. Summer’s thin liquidity (and other summer trading traps ) can turn minor market moves into full-on tidal waves. No one wants to explain to their friends why they lost 40% of their portfolio during a snorkeling trip.
Adequate position sizing is your beach umbrella. It doesn’t stop the storm, but it’ll stop the burn.
🧭 Wi-Fi, but Make It Secure
Public Wi-Fi is great for scrolling memes, not executing trades. One accidental login from a beachside café in Mykonos and boom — your brokerage account may become a group project.
Trading from your vacation spot shouldn’t be a flex (no matter how much you want to look cool to the bunch of people around you). Focus on your game, trade in silence, and bask in sunlight and success.
☀️ Pack Light, Trade Lighter
The golden rule? If you’re not at your desk, don’t trade like you are.
Scale back positions, minimize leverage, and don’t try to outperform the market while someone’s kid is throwing a beach ball at your head. This is a maintenance phase, not a moonshot month.
Think: protect capital, avoid drawdowns, maybe sneak in a swing trade between sunscreen applications.
📲 Must-Have Apps for Sand-and-Screen Trading
You’re not bringing a full setup, but your phone can still do the heavy lifting. Load it with TradingView (obviously), your broker, ideally paired with TradingView, and a solid news feed . Bonus points for noise-canceling headphones that can drown out both market panic and crying toddlers.
Set up push notifications smartly — only the alerts you actually need. You don’t want your wrist buzzing every time Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA moves 0.1%.
Question for the road : What’s your best summer trade… and was it worth checking your phone at dinner to place it?
What's Nifty Next?With rising tensions between countries, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious. This geopolitical uncertainty is likely to weigh heavily on investor confidence in the coming weeks.
Based on the current scenario, a realistic target for Nifty seems to be around 21,000 by July, especially if the negative sentiment continues and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain net sellers. Global cues, crude oil prices, and currency fluctuations could further impact the index's performance.
📌 However, if by any chance Nifty manages to close above 25,500, it would indicate an extremely strong bullish breakout, defying current market fundamentals. Given the present conditions, this seems highly unlikely, unless there is a sudden positive catalyst such as:
A major resolution in geopolitical issues
Strong corporate earnings
Aggressive policy support from the government or RBI
🧠 My Take:
For now, it’s wise to remain cautious and watch key support/resistance levels. Volatility may remain high, and short-term traders should manage their positions carefully.
💬 Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Do you think 21k is coming soon, or can the bulls surprise us all?
#Nifty directions and levels for July 31st:Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for July 31st:
In the past two sessions, the global market (based on Dow Jones) has shown a moderately bearish sentiment,
while the local market continues to reflect a bearish tone.
Today, Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down opening of around 160 points (as per the chart).
What can we expect today?
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty went through consolidation.
Structurally, we are still in a bearish tone, and with Gift Nifty indicating a gap-down start,
if the market breaks the immediate support levels with a solid candle, we can expect further correction.
On the other hand, if it finds support there, then the range-bound movement is likely to continue.
Which means, if the initial market takes a pullback, we can expect consolidation within the previous day’s range.
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 31st:
What can we expect today?
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty went through consolidation.
Structurally, we are still in a bearish tone, and with Gift Nifty indicating a gap-down start,
if the market breaks the immediate support levels with a solid candle, we can expect further correction.
On the other hand, if it finds support there, then the range-bound movement is likely to continue.
Which means, if the initial market takes a pullback, we can expect consolidation within the previous day’s range.
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
USDOLLAR H4 | Bearish reversalBased on H4 chart analysis, we can see the price rising towards the sell entry at 12,826.67, which is a swing high resistance.
Stop loss is at 12,892.30, which is a swing high resistance.
Our take profit will be at 12,752.33, which is a pullback support.
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NAS100 Buy Setup – VSA & Multi-Zone Demand Analysis✅ Primary Entry Zone: Major support for current week (around 23,325–23,350)
✅ Secondary Entry Zone: Potential reversal zone if primary support is broken (around 23,200–23,230)
🎯 Target 1 (TP1): Previous swing high near 23,500
🎯 Target 2 (TP2): Extension above 23,550
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): Below 23,170 (beyond secondary reversal zone to avoid false breaks)
📊 Technical Insight (VSA & Price Action Structure)
Support Structure:
The current major support zone has been tested multiple times with no follow-through selling, indicating strong buying interest from larger players.
Volume Spread Analysis Observations:
On the recent decline into the major support zone, we see wider spreads on high volume followed by narrow range candles on lower volume, a classic sign of stopping volume and supply exhaustion.
Within the secondary reversal zone, historical reactions show climactic volume spikes leading to sharp reversals, suggesting this level is watched closely by smart money.
Any test back into the zone on low volume would confirm the No Supply (NS) condition.
Trade Pathways:
Scenario 1: Price respects the major support and begins to climb, confirming demand dominance → target TP1 then TP2.
Scenario 2: Support is temporarily breached, triggering a liquidity grab into the secondary reversal zone, followed by a bullish reversal bar on high volume → strong buy signal with potentially faster move toward TP levels.
📍 Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above the secondary reversal zone.
📌 Execution Tip: Wait for a wide spread up-bar on increased volume from either zone to confirm the start of the markup phase.
US100 Surges on Strong Fed Data and Trump Trade Deals A combination of upbeat economic data from the Fed and renewed optimism from Trump’s trade announcements fueled a powerful bullish rally on the US100. Price broke above the 23,450 🔼 resistance after reclaiming the 23,300 🔽 zone, leaving behind a strong V-shaped recovery from 23,200 🔽.
Support Levels: 23,450 🔽, 23,375 🔽, 23,300 🔽
Resistance Levels: None locally – price is printing new highs
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Holding above 23,450 could support further upside. A clean retest may offer continuation entries.
🔽 Bearish: A drop back below 23,450 would weaken the rally and may open the path to 23,375 or 23,300.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NAS - LET'S MAKE MILLIONS Team, last night NAS I was expect the FALL BACK as I predicted rate un-change will get NASTY on both DOW AND NAS.
So I have a set up entry LONG, i didnt expect the NAS flying to the moon.
both target hit so fast in 15 minutes
However, today is another opportunity to SHORT NAS on the current market at 23613-23625
STOP LOSS AT 23720
Once the NAS pull back toward 23580-65 - BRING STOP LOSS TO BE
TARGET 1: at 23540-20
TARGET 2: at 23480-65
LETS GO
SPY back in the trendlineFrom a technical stand point, the expectation was that the trend line will be respected and sellers will force price to close back inside.
Today's daily close can ignite further downward movement which can align with August seasonality that typically sees Indices pull back within this period.
Target still remains 6108 at previous ATH
USD Dollar Index (DXY): Pushing Higher As Forecast!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 30 - Aug1
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market:
USD Index
In my last USD video, the forecast was for higher prices. Check the related links below to see that video forecast. It played out exactly as analyzed. The +FVG was used to push for higher prices. The FOMC decision to keep the rate unchanged only pushed it further along.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Unprecedented VOL suppression will lead to VIX October explosionAccording to my discussions with ChatGPT and analyzing various metrics we are currently in one of the longest periods, if not *the longest* period, of Vol suppression in the entire history of volatility.
Zooming out and looking at the current chart pattern VIX is very clearly in a falling wedge, which means its falling days are numbered.
Once you see a daily close breach of the upper boundary of the upper wedge channel, I would consider buying some VIX 30 calls for Oct 22 expiration.
Once VIX pierces 25, take profit and close the option.
Good luck and happy trading!
DXY with interest rates With interest rates remaining steady, the U.S. Dollar is currently moving in a bullish direction.
As shown in the chart, it seems likely that price will break the previous high and form a bullish Quasimodo (QM) pattern. The price may then reach the 50% Fibonacci level.
After that, we should wait and observe the market's reaction.
If price gets rejected from the 103 zone — especially if accompanied by a rate cut or bearish price action — we could see a sharp decline toward the 95 area.
This 95 zone also aligns with a key weekly Fibonacci support level on the Dollar Index.
As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, the U.S. Dollar may continue its upward momentum. However, the 103–104 zone — which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a significant supply area — could serve as a strong resistance.
If price gets rejected from this area and we simultaneously see signs of a rate cut or weakening U.S. economic data, a trend reversal and corrective phase could begin. In that case, lower targets around 95 or even 93 could become likely in the medium term.
good luck