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US30 / Consolidation Zone with a Bearish BiasUS30 Technical Analysis The price has a consolidate between 42130 and 41970 Bearish Scenario: Breaking 41970 by closing 1h or 4h candle under it, will be a bearish trend to get 41740 and then 41560 Bullish scenario: any breaking above 42130 will support the bullish trend to get 42290 and 42450 Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42130 Resistance Levels: 42290, 42450, 42590 Support Levels: 41970, 41750, 41560 Trend Outlook: - Bearish by stability below 41970 - Bullish by stability above 42130 - Consolidation 41970 and 42130
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
USNAS100 / Bearish Pressure with Potential Retest OpportunitiesTechnically: The price has dropped precisely as anticipated. It is now expected to reach 20008, with a stabilization below the 20008 level likely extending the decline toward 19740. Bearish Scenario: While trading below 20130, the price may attempt to reach 20008 and 19860. A break below 19740 would pave the way for further declines toward 19520. Bullish Scenario: Stabilization above 20130 would open the path to 20240. Further strength above this level could create a bullish zone targeting 20420. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20130 Resistance Levels: 20240, 20330, 20420 Support Levels: 19990, 19860, 19740 Trend outlook: - Bullish above 20130 - Bearish below 20020 previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
DreamAnalysis | Dow Jones Focus Key Levels and Strategic Moves✨ Today’s Focus: Dow Jones (US30) – A Major Market Influencer We’re diving into the latest NASDAQ price action to pinpoint crucial levels, assess potential trends, and uncover strategic trading opportunities. 📊 Market Overview: Currently, Dow Jones is positioned in a Discount. The price has broken through significant Seel-side liquidity levels, including the Relative Equal Lows Taken and now is having a retracement back higher, setting the stage for a potential move toward the Previous Week High ( PWH ). A Bullish Smart Money Technique (SMT) signal also aligns with the SPX500 (ES), hinting at possible headwinds. 🔴 Short- and Long-Term Outlook: We’ll explore both bullish and bearish setups, equipping day traders with insights to approach both short-term and long-term trends effectively. 🗣 Short-Term Outlook: In the short term, two scenarios could play out: either a push into the Buy Side Liquidity targeting the Previous Week High ( PWH ) and after that leading to a lower move. Lower timeframes will be crucial for monitoring these moves—drop down to spot key market movements in real-time. 🗣 Long-Term Outlook: Looking long term, there’s potential for a pullback into a Premium level. For entries, tracking lower timeframes is essential. The Bullish SMT divergence with SPX500 (ES) reinforces the possibility of a Upward expansion. 🕓 Key Levels to Watch: These levels will likely shape price movement: - PMH: Previous Month High - PML: Previous Month Low - PWH: Previous Week High - PWL: Previous Week Low - BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity - SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) serve as pivotal retracement zones, potentially guiding the next price movement. 📈 Bullish Scenario: In a bullish setup, watch for Low-Resistance Sell-Side Liquidity sweeps on lower timeframes (LTF). Look for entry signals targeting higher levels, including a potential move toward the all-time high (ATH). 📉 Bearish Scenario: For bearish trades, focus on lower timeframes such as the 15-minute chart. Short entries within the 4-Hour Imbalance or a breakdown of Low-Resistance Buy-Side Liquidity provide further confirmation. 📝 Final Thoughts: Stay adaptable as market dynamics shift. By monitoring these key levels and setups, you’ll refine your strategy and increase the potential for high-probability trades. 🔮 On the Radar: We’re also tracking NASDAQ, DXY, EUR/USD, and other major markets for evolving insights and timely updates. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by DreamAnalysis
S&P500 / Bearish Pressure Builds: Key Support Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643. Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone. Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850. Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5748 Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824 Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
04.11.24This week is election week in this close battle in elections on Tuesday and the Feds are expected to deliever a rate cut. This could influence high swings in market prices us30: Price hovered around resitance and began its fall on wednesday to Previous weeks low. On us30 im still quite bearish as there has been strong bearish momentum, possible to 41706.71-41557.50 area id like to see how price acts if it can reach there. How ever price has reached a strong area of resistance at 41796.96 so I'd like to see how price acts if it can reach 42334.18 ger40: Price capture a few highs above previous months high before falling on Tuesday reaching pw low on Wednesday. Still bearish towards ger40 id like to see price reach 19002.1-18911.2. I dont favour price pushing higher than 19294.5 at the beginnig of the week but if it were too I will like to see how it reacts
UShort
by S0202Trades
Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get. The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now): That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern. ** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle ** Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle ** The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. ** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle ** With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032! ** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels ** What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis. As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. ** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? ** It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc). It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond. ** Conclusion ** In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Editors' picks
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
28
FTSE UK100 Reaches Key Demand Area Amid Seasonal TrendsThe FTSE UK100 index has recently reached a crucial demand area, igniting traders' interest amid seasonality patterns observed over the past decade. Historically, this time of year tends to witness upward momentum in the index prices, making this a significant area for potential bullish moves. Given the historical context, many traders are closely monitoring developments as they assess whether the index will follow suit and initiate a rally. From a fundamental perspective, the recent Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides a tantalizing glimpse into market dynamics. It reveals that while retail traders are predominantly bearish, "smart money"—the institutional investors—appear to be accumulating long positions. This divergence is notable; retail sentiment often serves as a contrarian indicator. With smart money stepping in at a demand zone, there is potential for a bullish reversal, which could support the index as it seeks to capitalize on favorable seasonal trends. Moreover, the broader economic landscape remains conducive to this optimistic outlook. As the UK grapples with various macroeconomic factors, including inflation rates and monetary policy responses, investor sentiment has become increasingly nuanced. A stronger performance in the FTSE may be supported by sectors that typically thrive during this time, such as commodities and financial services, providing tailwinds for the index. As traders look ahead, the focus on a bullish scenario is intensifying. The critical consideration is whether the FTSE UK100 can sustain momentum above the demand area, signaling a recovery phase that may align with both historical patterns and smart money positioning. If the index can maintain its footing and demonstrate strength in the coming sessions, it may very well affirm the bullish sentiment among those advocating for a market upturn. In summary, the convergence of seasonal patterns, contrasting market sentiment as illustrated by the COT report, and the strong fundamental backdrop paints a compelling picture for the FTSE UK100. Traders are poised to explore opportunities in a potentially bullish scenario, keen to see if the index will follow historical tendencies and deliver a strong performance in the latter part of the year. As always, careful monitoring of market developments will be essential in navigating this promising but complex landscape. ✅ Please share your thoughts about FTSE in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CAPITALCOM:UK100Long
by FOREXN1
3
SasanSeifi| Where is the Next Support?Hey there, ✌ In the 10-hour timeframe, the Dow Jones Index has been correcting from the 43,300 price range. With a structural break around the 42,700 to 42,500 zone, the price entered a corrective phase, reaching down to 41,700. Currently, it is trading around 42,000. The general outlook leans more towards a bearish scenario. One potential scenario is that after some slight upward fluctuations or sideways movement, if the 42,500 supply zone doesn’t break, we may see further correction to lower levels around 41,400 and 41,300. Following this, a range-bound movement is possible upon reaching these levels. Should there be a correction in the price trend, it’s important to watch the price reactions in these zones to better understand the continuation of the movement. Additionally, if demand picks up and the critical 42,500 level breaks and holds, we could see a further price rise toward the 42,700 and 43,000 levels. 💢This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
UShort
by SasanSeifi
NASDAQ - Nasdaq will lose the 20,000?!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the range of 20,000 is broken, we can witness the continuation of the decline If the index rises towards the two specified supply zones, you can look for Nasdaq sell positions up to the bottom of the ascending channel The U.S. jobs report for October indicated that only 12,000 new jobs were added to the labor market, significantly below expectations. This drop was primarily due to strikes, particularly at Boeing, and the impacts of recent storms. In October 2024, 512,000 workers were unable to work due to hurricanes Helen and Milton, much higher than the historical average of 47,000. These conditions led to a slowdown in job growth for October. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, but revised data from previous months show a decline in job growth. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the U.S. stock market will grow by the end of the year, driven by various factors. The end of October marks reduced sales by investment and pension funds, which could support stock price growth. This outlook contrasts with the consensus on Wall Street, which expects stock prices to decline after the presidential election. However, Goldman Sachs believes that stock market growth will continue under current conditions. A survey by the Conference Board shows that 51.4% of American consumers expect stock prices to rise over the next 12 months. This represents the highest optimism level recorded since the survey began in 1987, although experts remain skeptical. Warren Buffett continued selling a significant portion of his Apple shares in the third quarter of 2024, selling nearly a quarter of his holdings. This move reduced Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in Apple to 300 million shares, representing a 67.2% decrease from the end of the third quarter last year. Despite these sales, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves have reached $325.2 billion. Buffett indicated that some sales might be due to tax reasons, but the volume of sales suggests other factors may also be at play. Interestingly, Berkshire did not purchase any stocks during this period. Next week’s U.S. election will be in the spotlight, with market participants in a state of uncertainty as it is unclear whether conclusive results will be announced immediately after polls close on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, central banks will also be in focus; the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Additionally, markets await the release of the U.S. ISM Services PMI on Tuesday, weekly jobless claims data on Thursday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. These data points could significantly influence market direction during this crucial week. Nick Timiraos, an economic analyst from The Wall Street Journal, believes the U.S. jobs report will not significantly alter expectations for a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve. JPMorgan analysts suggest that if Trump wins the election, more expansionary fiscal policies will be implemented, which could increase the budget deficit and inflation. As a result, the Fed may pause rate cuts. Conversely, if Kamala Harris wins, the economy is expected to continue its slow and steady path, and the Fed would likely proceed with a rate cut in November; however, with a Trump victory, this cut may be halted in December.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND