JPY at Key Zone – EURJPY & GBPJPY Could Drop 1k+ PipsExactly one year ago, the JPY Currency Index broke above the falling trendline of a falling wedge, signaling the end of a bearish cycle that had lasted nearly five years.
As is typical after long-term reversals, the reaction was sharp and fast, and the price quickly reached the first resistance target of the pattern.
Since then, the index entered a lateral phase, with clear support forming around the 730 zone.
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🔍 Current Price Action
Recently, the price pulled back to test that same support, and at the time of writing it sits at 737, forming a tight consolidation.
This suggests we’re again at an inflection point.
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📊 Trade Outlook
From a medium-term perspective, I believe the index is preparing for another leg higher, potentially toward resistance at 780.
➡️ That would mean a 7% rise on the JPY Index – and this move could translate into more than 1,000 pips of downside for pairs like EURJPY and GBPJPY.
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🔄 What’s Next?
In the coming sessions, I’ll focus on these two pairs as they offer the clearest setups and have the strongest volatility.
Stay tuned — follow for the next updates. 🚀
Market indices
#Nifty directions and levels for July 30th:Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for July 30th:
There have been no major changes in the global market. The global sentiment remains moderately bullish,
while the local market continues to show a bearish tone.
Today, Gift Nifty indicates a gap-down opening of around 40 points.
What can we expect today?
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty took a solid pullback after the gap-down start.
However, neither of them broke the 38% Fibonacci level in the current swing.
So, unless the 38% level is broken, we should continue to approach the market with a bearish view.
At the same time, key parameters have been lagging recently, which has made it difficult for the market to take a clear direction.
My primary expectation is consolidation within the previous day's range.
However, if the market breaks the bottom with a solid structure, then we can expect the correction to continue.
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 30th:
What can we expect today?
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty took a solid pullback after the gap-down start.
However, neither of them broke the 38% Fibonacci level in the current swing.
So, unless the 38% level is broken, we should continue to approach the market with a bearish view.
At the same time, key parameters have been lagging recently, which has made it difficult for the market to take a clear direction.
My primary expectation is consolidation within the previous day's range.
However, if the market breaks the bottom with a solid structure, then we can expect the correction to continue.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher than ever. Crash incoming??The stock market is now more expensive than ever.
Some people are calling the top, saying that the market is overbought and too high.
There are indicators that show that the market is overheated, but NO ONE KNOWS whether it's going to crash next week or continue running up for months.
Since April, Nasdaq has gained 40%, which is a lot. Congrats if you bought some QLD and TQQQ back in April when I posted about it.
SP:SPX : All-time high. NASDAQ:NDX : All-time high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD : All-time high. TVC:GOLD : All-time high HOME PRICES ( ECONOMICS:USSFHP ): All-time high. Sounds a bit like a bubble.
The S&P 500’s market cap now equals 28x real disposable personal income — a record.
The stock market Shiller PE ratio is at its highest in 20 years.
Nasdaq companies, especially the MAG7, are strongly outperforming small-cap companies. The last time this happened at this speed, we had the dot-com crash.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index.
So, saying this, is the market going to crash?
I don't know, but I know that it's more likely to crash now than it was 3 months ago. It might continue running higher, too, as the FED is expected to cut rates. Really, no one knows. 😊
Here's what I'm doing:
I trimmed down some overpriced stocks from my portfolio: Lemonade, Coupang, Shopify, and Crowdstrike
I trimmed down some of my crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum
I stopped DCA'ing into leveraged ETFs
I'm accumulating cash
I'm still investing (added more healthcare stocks to the portfolio)
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%.
The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper.
The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets.
In summary:
It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances.
It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC.
It influences many other interest rates in the economy.
Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%.
1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K)
Above Forecast:
If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts.
Below Forecast or Negative:
If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators.
2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%)
Above Forecast:
A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support.
Below Forecast or Negative:
Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn.
3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%)
Above Forecast:
A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer.
Below Forecast:
If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand.
Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction
Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action
All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold
All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut
Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed
Summary:
The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage.
Key Features of the DXY:
Currencies included and their weights:
Euro (EUR) – 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6%
British Pound (GBP) – 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6%
It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value.
The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of these currencies versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar.
The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold), and financial markets.
It is calculated as a geometric mean of the exchange rates weighted by each currency's significance in U.S. trade.
#DXY
In essence, the DXY is a crucial tool to assess how the U.S. dollar is performing against its major trade partners’ currencies, helping market participants make informed decisions in foreign exchange and broader financial markets.
AUS200/ASX200 - ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO SHORT AUS200Team, today, good data came out from the AUS200
The market has given some steroids
Time to put an end to this
SHORTING AUS200 at 8761 toward 8772 with stop loss at 8810
Target 1 at 8732-8726 - take 50% volume and bring stop loss to BE
TARGET 2 at 8712-8696
ENJOY YOUR DAY!
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the swing high resistance.
Pivot: 6,334.93
1st Support: 6,292.36
1st Resistance: 6,420.86
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.24
1st Support: 98.27
1st Resistance: 99.97
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY warning of an incoming bear market?The DXY is into major multifactor support on the weekly timeframe. We have 2 weekly trendlines intersecting right at the 97.00 level. The first connects the highs from March 2020 through the lows of July 2023 to where we are now. The second is much larger and goes all the way back to 2007, connecting the lows from 2007, 2011 and 2021. We could see a major bounce here for months and some companies have reported during earnings that the sole reason for their improved earnings was due to weakness in the dollar. What happens to earnings when the DXY goes back into bull mode???? Time will tell...
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets.
Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well.
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📈 Simplified Trading Rules:
> Follow a Valid Sequence
> Wait for Continuation
> Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern)
> Know When to Exit (SL placement)
Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views.
The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning.
⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan.
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Nikkei 225 Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025- Nikkei 225 reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely fall to support level 40000.00
Nikkei 225 index recently reversed from the resistance zone between the resistance levels 42000.00 (which started the sharp sell-off in 2024) and 41285.00.
This resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
Given the strength of the aforementioned resistance zone and the overbought weekly Stochastic, Nikkei 225 index can be expected to fall to the next round support level 40000.00.
DXY (US Dollar Index)After breaking out of the downtrend and successfully testing the previous resistance level following the breakout from the Falling Wedge, the US Dollar Index looks poised for upward movement. This could temporarily slow down crypto due to dollar strength. 💵
July was nice, but August has historically been the worst month of the year — and we need to be prepared for that.
US30 07/29 Sell Trade I don't like sells because I consider myself an optimistic person but the red candle that I mark in red gave me all I needed to know to enter sell and get my target profit filled. So. I know there is variation in this trade but we were on a downtrend and going against the trend is only acceptable when the trend is over( meaning a reversal) . So when I see a big candle break the support of my variation I entered
Dow Jones Wave Analysis – 29 July 2025
- Dow Jones reversed from the long-term resistance level 45000.00
- Likely fall to support level 44000.00
Dow Jones index recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the long-term resistance level 45000.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2024) and the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern, Bearish Engulfing.
Given the strength of the resistance level 45000.00 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, Dow Jones index can be expected to fall to the next support level 44000.00 (which reversed the price earlier in July).
SPX preparing to sweep liquidity around the 6200 level.Based on my analysis, the #SPX has printed a reversal engulfing candle, which could lead to a period of consolidation. The most probable target appears to be the liquidity pool around the 6200 level.
However, this outlook becomes invalid if the daily candle closes above 6410—the current (today) session high.
As always, conduct your due diligence. Technical analysis offers a probabilistic perspective, not certainty.
US30 Correction with in a Downtrend ChannelUS30 is currently in a consolidation phase within a broader bullish trend. From our previous analysis, the index has shown strong upward momentum. However, to confirm a potential bearish shift, the price would need to break back below key support levels, potentially leading to a deeper correction.
If the price stabilizes above 44,000 on the 4H timeframe, this would strengthen the bullish momentum. A sustained move above this level could open the path towards the next targets at 45,200 and 45,400.
You May find more details in the chart.
Ps: Support with like and comments for better analysis
US30The latest COT report shows increased Non-Commercial short positions, indicating bearish sentiment among speculators. Commercial traders are also holding or adding to their short positions, reinforcing the negative outlook. Rising open interest further confirms market expectations of a decline in the US30.