US30 Market Breakdown – 07/28/2025📍 US30 Market Breakdown – 07/28/2025
US30 just broke above the prior key zone at 44,950–45,000 and tapped 45,160+ before showing some rejection and pulling back to 45,000.
The move confirms bullish continuation—but the pullback is critical. If bulls defend 44,950–44,900, this could be a textbook higher low and launchpad for more upside.
📊 Current Structure:
✅ Higher highs & higher lows
📈 Clean break and retest of the 45K zone
⏳ Pullback in progress—watching demand areas
🧱 Resistance Zones:
45,160 → Recent local high
45,250 → Psychological resistance
45,400 → Next extension zone
📉 Support Zones:
44,950 → Breakout level (must hold)
44,800 → EMA confluence
44,600–44,500 → Demand base
📉 If price fails to hold 44,950, we could see a fade back to 44,800 or even 44,600.
📈 If 45,160 breaks, expect momentum to accelerate into the 45,300–45,400 range.
🧠 Bias:
🟢 Bullish
Structure favors continuation unless 44,800 breaks
Buy dips into demand zones
Wait for NY open confirmation for intraday momentum
Market indices
Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week🇺🇸 Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week
Three major catalysts are on the radar for USD traders:
📊 ADP Employment Report
💰 Advance GDP (Q2)
🧠 Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
Additionally, ongoing trade developments with the EU may add to volatility.
📊 1. ADP Employment Report
The July ADP report is forecast to show 82K job additions. While this may seem consistent with recent NFP strength, several red flags suggest growing labor market weakness:
Decline in labor force participation
Slowing wage growth
Emerging contraction signals in the services sector
Even if ADP meets expectations, it may not reflect broad-based labor market health. Historically, ADP and NFP have often diverged—so the market reaction may be muted unless the data surprises meaningfully.
💰 2. Advance GDP (Q2)
Q2 GDP is expected to show modest growth, possibly supported by:
Higher tariff revenues boosting government income
A weaker dollar improving export competitiveness
Reduced imports due to elevated import costs
However, much of this growth is likely nominal rather than real. With inflation remaining sticky, headline GDP may be inflated by price effects rather than true economic expansion. Real GDP could remain flat or weak.
🧠 3. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
This is arguably the most market-sensitive event of the week.
Goldman Sachs and other major banks believe the recent resilience in U.S. data lowers the chances of a rate cut at this meeting. However, political dynamics could add nuance:
With Donald Trump actively campaigning—and reportedly pressuring the Fed to ease rates to boost exports and growth—Powell may face a fine balancing act in his tone.
Markets will dissect every word for clues on future policy.
🌐 U.S.-EU Trade Developments
The U.S. recently announced a new trade agreement with the EU, including a 15% tariff on selected European imports.
In the short term, this could be dollar-supportive, as it:
Favors domestic producers
Reduces reliance on imports
Potentially improves the trade balance
Yet over the longer term, such tariffs can be inflationary and disrupt global supply chains—possibly complicating the Fed’s decision-making.
⚠️ Final Thought
In times of policy uncertainty, markets lose their predictability.
Tariffs, in particular, often have a stronger and more immediate impact than calendar-based economic data.
As a result, traders must monitor trade-related news and tariff decisions just as closely—if not more—than traditional economic releases in order to stay ahead of market direction and central bank decisions.
Markets on Fire: Stock Indexes Pop, but Will Big Tech Deliver?S&P 500 and Nasdaq set records. Now it's up to big tech to justify that.
Talk about forward-looking valuation. Tech companies’ valuations are largely based on future potential rather than current performance. And that’s what we’re seeing right now getting priced in across the big indexes.
You’d think we’d be bored of record highs by now. But no — Wall Street keeps hitting refresh on its all-time-high counter. 🎵 Over and over again. 🎵
On Friday, the S&P 500 SP:SPX notched its 14th record close this year, ending at 6,388.64. The Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC followed with its 15th at 21,108.32. Even the Dow TVC:DJI — the older sibling who prefers yield over hype — climbed nearly 0.5% to 44,901.92, within a latte’s foam of its December record .
And while indexes are breaking personal bests, investors are buying ahead of some big data deliveries. Why? Because the week ahead is the Super Bowl of Earnings, and the bigger chunk of the Magnificent Seven is up next.
😎 What in the Magnificent Seven?
A highly exclusive club with just seven members, the Mag 7 has entered the earnings spotlight — and the audience isn’t going mild. Traders are pricing perfection, and the script better deliver.
Meta NASDAQ:META kicks things off Wednesday after the close with expected revenue of $44.8 billion and EPS of $5.87. Can Zuckerberg’s AI narrative get investors to forget about the metaverse?
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT shows up at the same time, hoping to dazzle with $73.8 billion in revenue and $3.38 EPS. Copilot AI better be doing overtime.
Then on Thursday, again after lights out, Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN joins the chat with its AWS and ecommerce empire expected to pick up $162.1 billion in revenue. Right behind is Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , fighting to stop its slide into meh-land with projected revenue of $89.2 billion and $1.43 EPS. (Fast fact: AAPL is down 12% year to date — among the worst performers in the crew.)
So far, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL already crushed its quarter , posting $96.4 billion in revenue and $2.31 EPS, plus a spicy raise in capex to $85 billion.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA ? Not so great. The EV maker reported a 12% revenue drop and a 16% net income decline, spooking investors with a warning of “rough quarters ahead.” The stock is lower by 17% year to date.
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , the AI trailblazer, reports in late August. Until then, it’s chilling on a $4 trillion throne, as per our Top companies rankings, watching its friends sweat it out.
💸 Can the Mag 7 Keep Carrying?
Here’s a harsh dose of reality: the entire S&P 500 is riding on the backs of these seven stocks. Analysts expect them to post 14% earnings growth, while the other 493 companies limp along at 3.4%. Talk about top-heavy things.
So what happens if even one tech titan misses the mark big time and spooks with scary guidance? A market correction? A buy-the-dip opportunity?
And let’s not forget: valuations are stretched. The S&P 500 is now trading at nearly 23x forward earnings (that’s projected profits per share). And the Nasdaq? Don’t even ask. (We’ll tell you anyway — it’s close to 30x). In all that, now’s a great time to keep a close eye on the Earnings Calendar .
📊 Not All Is Big Tech: Fed and Jobs Loom
As if this week wasn’t already packed enough, macro is back on the menu. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Chair Jay Powell is expected to hold rates steady at 4.5%.
But don’t rule out drama. A single hawkish word and this party could quickly get some rain on. Powell, the man who moves trillions with a simple “Good afternoon,” has a track record of putting markets in their place when they get too euphoric.
And then there’s Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Consensus calls for just 108,000 jobs added in July — soft, but not disastrous, and fewer than June’s 147,000 . Blame summer hiring slumps, tariff uncertainty, or the market finally digesting its own hype.
Off to you : Can the Magnificent Seven keep this market magnificent? Or are we about to learn what happens when you ride too close to the sun on AI-generated wings?
BankNifty levels - Jul 29, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
Nifty levels - Jul 29, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NAS100 - How will the stock market react to the FOMC meeting?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. The target for this move will be the ceiling of the channel, but if it corrects towards the indicated support area, you can buy Nasdaq with better reward-risk.
As signs of easing global trade tensions begin to emerge, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet this week. Analysts widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive time. This anticipated decision comes as the U.S. President continues to push for rate cuts, persistently pressuring the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary stance.
So far, the Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark rate within a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. While some officials project two cuts by the end of the year, markets are waiting for the Fed’s patience to run out. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors have priced in a 62% chance of a rate cut in the September meeting. By then, the Fed will have access to the July and August employment reports—key indicators of whether the labor market is weakening or remains resilient.
The upcoming week marks the peak of Q2 earnings season, with 37% of S&P 500 companies reporting results, including four major tech firms. In parallel, the August 1st tariff deadline for the EU and other countries is approaching, while legal challenges over existing tariffs remain ongoing.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, many large U.S. corporations have so far absorbed the bulk of tariff-related costs without passing them on to consumers. This strategy aims to maintain market share and avoid drawing criticism from President Trump. However, the question remains—how long can this continue?
Examples from the report include:
• General Motors paid over $1 billion in tariffs in Q2 alone without announcing any price hikes.
• Nike expects a $1 billion hit from tariffs this fiscal year and is planning price increases.
• Hasbro is working on a combination of price hikes and cost cuts to offset $60 million in tariff impacts.
• Walmart has made slight pricing adjustments (e.g., bananas rising from $0.50 to $0.54) and managed pressure through inventory reductions.
This week is shaping up to be one of the busiest on the economic calendar in recent months. A flood of key data on growth, inflation, and employment, alongside three major interest rate decisions, has markets on high alert.
On Tuesday, attention will turn to two significant reports: the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for July. These metrics will offer a clearer view of labor market dynamics and household sentiment heading into critical monetary policy decisions.
The most anticipated day is Wednesday. That day brings the ADP private payrolls report, the first estimate of Q2 GDP, and pending home sales data. Additionally, both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will announce rate decisions—events with the potential to simultaneously steer global market trajectories.
On Thursday, the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will be released—a key inflation gauge closely monitored by the Fed. Weekly jobless claims data will also be published that day.
The week concludes Friday with two heavyweight economic indicators: July’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a crucial input for Fed policy decisions, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which offers insights into the health of the real economy.
Some economists argue that a September rate cut may be premature, and even suggest that no rate changes might occur in 2025. Analysts expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to reiterate a data-dependent stance, consistent with previous meetings.
Still, beyond political dynamics, the July meeting holds independent significance.The Fed’s internal policy tone is gradually leaning more dovish, and subtle signals of this shift may emerge in the final statement. Given that only one meeting remains before September, if policymakers are leaning toward a rate cut then, it’s critical that the groundwork for such communication be laid now.
Dollar Index (DXY): Possible Reversal | Inverse Head & ShouldersThe dollar has had a tough year, but that might be changing.
I’ve spotted a well-known reversal pattern: an Inverse Head & Shoulders.
This pattern features three dips, with the middle one—the "head"—being the deepest.
Now, the price has rebounded from the Right Shoulder and is heading higher.
It’s approaching the Neckline at $98.7, which needs to be broken for a bullish confirmation.
If that happens, the projected target is around $101.6, based on the depth of the pattern.
This lines up closely with the previous high of $102 from May. The target area is highlighted in the blue box.
However, if the price falls below the Right Shoulder’s low at $97.1, the pattern would be invalidated.
Anyone else see this pattern?
Could this be the bottom for the dollar?
Nifty May Bouncing in Next Week We Are Expecting A bounce back from 24500-24600 level Why? let's Try to understand
(1) Nifty daily Chart 100 EMA
(2) Weekly Chart 200 EMA
(3) there is Multiple support testing around 24500 showing intuitional pending Order.
(4) Nifty bottom out with up move around 18 % & now We are seeing 5 Consecutive Falling
Weekly Candle same pattern happened in July 2023 when nifty Rallied around 18 % and there
was also correction around -3.80%.
(5) A 5-candle rule may apply (Means high possibility of bounce back or pullback if we got 5 consecutive candles either upside or downside)
This is pure technical analysis just based on market behaviour, pattern or historical data. not included any fundamental factor.
FTSE corrective pullback support at 9092The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 9092 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 9092 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
9210 – initial resistance
9243 – psychological and structural level
9276 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 9092 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
9062 – minor support
9026 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 9092. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Dow Jones Index Analysis (US30 / Dow Jones):🔹 The index recently tested its all-time high at 45,152 USD, and a short-term correction may occur to retest the PDH level at 44,950 USD.
1️⃣ If strong bullish momentum leads to a break and close above 45,150 USD, the price is likely to push toward forming a new high.
2️⃣ However, a break and close below 44,620 USD could trigger a move toward 44,240 USD.
🔻 A confirmed break below this zone would resume the bearish trend and open the way toward 43,900 USD.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit a bearish outlook driven by a combination of technical weakness and shifting macroeconomic fundamentals. Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, coupled with softer U.S. economic data and declining demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, have weighed heavily on the index. Technically, the DXY remains below key moving averages, with momentum indicators showing sustained weakness. Unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or a surprise in monetary policy direction, the bias remains to the downside over the near to medium term.
Nasdaq Index Analysis (US100 / NASDAQ):The Nasdaq index continues its medium- to long-term uptrend and has recently reached a new high at 23,466 USD.
1️⃣ A break and close below 23,200 USD could lead to a pullback toward 23,000, followed by 22,920 USD.
2️⃣ However, if the price holds above 23,330 USD, further bullish continuation is expected, potentially leading to a new all-time high.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Another Gap For Today?
I see another gap up opening on US30 Index.
I think it will be filled today. A formation of an intraday
bearish CHoCH on an hourly time frame suggests
a highly probable bearish continuation.
Goal - 44943
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