Market indices
Quick take US indices and the Fed's interest rate decisionQuick look at what can we expect from the Fed's rate decision and press conference on Wednesday.
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US100 – Eyes on $22,040 as bulls take chargeIntroduction
The US100 is currently showing signs of a bullish breakout, moving above the boundaries of a previously established parallel channel. It is now approaching an important area of imbalance, known as a Fair Value Gap (FVG), on the 4-hour chart. If the index manages to break through this zone, there is a strong potential for continued upward momentum. Let’s take a closer look at the technical setup and what might come next.
Parallel Channel
For some time, the US100 had been trading within a downward-sloping parallel channel, consistently making lower highs and lower lows. However, today's price action has changed that narrative. The index has broken out of the channel to the upside and is currently pushing towards new short-term highs, which could mark the beginning of a bullish trend reversal.
4-Hour Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The current focus is on an open 4-hour FVG that ranges from approximately 21,840 to 21,870. This zone could serve as a significant resistance level, potentially rejecting further upward movement. However, if the US100 breaks decisively above this range, it could open the door for a rapid push toward previous highs. Such a move would signal strong bullish momentum and confirm the breakout as legitimate.
Possibility of a False Breakout
There is always the risk that this breakout could turn out to be a false move. If the US100 fails to hold above the 4-hour FVG and reverses back below the channel breakout point, it could indicate a bull trap. In that case, the index may resume its downward trend. Still, based on the current momentum and market structure, this scenario seems less likely at the moment.
Upside Target
If the breakout above the FVG is successful, the next significant target lies at the recent highs near 22,040. This level is expected to act as strong resistance. Should the US100 manage to break through it, we could see a test of the all-time high in the near future. However, it’s important to approach the market with patience and let each level confirm itself before expecting further upside.
Conclusion
While the US100 has successfully broken out of its parallel channel, it is now facing a key test at the 4-hour FVG. A clean break above this zone would likely shift market sentiment to bullish and set the stage for a move toward 22,040 and potentially beyond. Until then, traders should watch closely for confirmation and be mindful of the possibility of a pullback.
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Markets Watch: Caution Ahead? U.S. stock index futures rose Monday, buoyed by easing oil prices, even as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran simmer in the background. All eyes are now on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. 👀💼
But here’s the catch on the S&P 500 👇
🔹 Price is stalling at a resistance line, tracing back to March highs
🔹 Daily RSI shows major divergence, signalling a loss of momentum
🔹 Rally is slowing just as it approaches the Feb all-time high at 6147
📉 If the index fails to hold and breaks below:
🔻 The 200-day MA at 5808
🔻 Key pivot levels at 5773 (Jan low) and 5787 (March peak)
…then we could see real downside pressure emerge.
🛑 For now, the market is showing red flags at a critical level. Stay alert — this could get interesting.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Technical Weekly AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
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Analysis
Germany 40 remains in a bullish trend but is currently in a correction phase. It is trading at 23,615, below its VWAP of 23,997, which suggests a potential loss of momentum. RSI at 45.9 reinforces the subdued tone. Support is at 23,448 and resistance is at 24,546.
UK 100 continues in a bullish trend and is firmly in an impulsive phase - pushing into record highs. Price is at 8,893, slightly above the VWAP of 8,815, showing continued strength. The RSI at 65.2 supports bullish momentum. Support lies at 8,730, while resistance has edged up to 8,900.
Wall Street maintains a bullish trend but is experiencing a corrective phase. It is priced at 42,333, just below the VWAP of 42,350. RSI at 51.5 indicates a balanced market sentiment. Support remains at 41,830 and resistance is at 43,064.
Brent Crude is in a bullish trend with a big impulsive phase underway. It's trading at 7,299, well above the VWAP of 6,666, suggesting very strong upward momentum. The RSI of 68.7 further supports this view. Support is at 5,934 and resistance is at 7,399.
Gold has entered a possible bullish breakout, moving above the prior sideways range. Trading at 3,416, it is comfortably above the VWAP of 3,347. RSI at 59.8 points to positive momentum. Support is seen at 3,254, with resistance at 3,440.
EUR/USD is consolidating within a bullish trend. The price at 1.1578 is well above the VWAP of 1.1420, showing underlying strength. The RSI at 65.5 suggests sustained buying interest. Support is at 1.1254, and resistance remains at 1.1579.
GBP/USD continues its bullish trend in an impulsive phase. Price is at 1.3581, just above the VWAP of 1.3530. RSI at 59.2 indicates stable bullish momentum. Support is at 1.3448, with resistance at 1.3610.
USD/JPY remains in a corrective phase of its bearish trend. It trades at 144.09, nearly matching the VWAP of 144.00. RSI at 49.3 shows neutral sentiment. Support is at 142.41, and resistance stands at 145.44.
EGX100 Equal Weight – Is a Strong Rebound Coming?On the weekly timeframe, the EGX100 Equal Weight Index is showing a technically significant structure:
🔹 Touched the midline of the Fibonacci channel for the 9th time, after a confirmed breakout — this midline has acted as a dynamic support zone over time.
🔹 Also testing an ascending trendline for the 3rd time, adding strength to the current support confluence.
📌 A strong weekly close above both the channel midline and the trendline could be the trigger for a powerful rebound, God willing.
This zone might represent a critical inflection point — keep an eye on how price action unfolds in the coming weeks.
Solid V Shaped recovery within the Parallel channel for NiftyNifty recovered sharply within the parallel channel. The reasons that can be attributed are inherent strength in the Indian market and swift recovery in IT, Infra, Metal, commodities, Realty, Mid and Small cap browsers. The closing of Nifty was at 24946 which is just above the mother line which is at 24908. The same mother line provided the support to Nifty in the last few hours of trade when there was some intraday profit booking pressure.
Nifty Supports remain at: 24908 (Mother line Support), 24836, 24690 (Father Line Support), 24555 (Channel Bottom Support) and 24480 recent low. Below 24880 Nifty will be very weak and Bears in that scenario can drag Nifty further down to 24195 or 23957. These are the levels as of now. If we go below these levels in unlikely circumstances we will update the levels once we get there.
Nifty Resistances remain at: 24973, 25106 (Mid Channel Resistance) and 25231.Once we close above 25231 we will update further levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Nifty Analysis EOD – June 16, 2025 – Monday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – June 16, 2025 – Monday 🔴
📈 Expected Follow-Through Plays Out – Bulls Eye 25K Hurdle Next
Nifty opened flat-to-positive at 24,737, briefly dipped to the day’s low of 24,703.60, and then reversed smartly to touch an intraday high of 24,967.10 by 13:40. After that, the index spent the rest of the day consolidating in a narrow 40-point band and closed at 24,940.95 intraday (adjusted close: 24,946.50), delivering a solid +227.90 point gain.
As anticipated, the 24,768–24,800 support zone provided the launchpad for further upside, confirming the bullish follow-up from Friday's recovery. The rally tested 24,967, just shy of the crucial resistance at 24,972, which remains a key watch for the next session.
🔍 However, going forward, the bulls face major challenges around 25,000–25,080. This zone has acted as a hurdle in the past and could either stall the rally or serve as a breakout trigger. Watch price behavior carefully around these levels to assess conviction.
🛡 5 Min Chart with Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,732.35
High: 24,967.10
Low: 24,703.60
Close: 24,946.50
Change: +227.90 (+0.92%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 214.15 pts → 🟢 Strong Green Candle
Upper Wick: 20.60 pts
Lower Wick: 28.75 pts
🔍 Interpretation
Opened near day’s low, closed near day’s high — classic bullish sentiment.
Small wicks show controlled buying with minimal resistance and shakeouts.
Reinforces the bulls’ momentum after Friday’s OL recovery candle.
🔦 Candle Type
💚 Bullish Marubozu–type / Bullish Continuation Candle– Often found during the middle leg of a bullish swing, signaling strong trend momentum.
📌 Key Insight
Today's price action confirmed continuation of the recovery.
Close above 24,950–25,000 in the next session could ignite fresh upside.
Rejection around 25,060–25,080 would indicate caution — stay nimble.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 268.49
IB Range: 114.05 → Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Unbalanced
Trades:
✅ 10:20 AM – Long Triggered → Target Achieved, Trailing SL Hit (RR: 1:3.28)
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
24,972 ~ 25,000
25,060 ~ 25,080
25,102 ~ 25,125
Support Levels
24,894 ~ 24,882
24,825 ~ 24,847
24,725 ~ 24,735
24,660
💭 Final Thoughts
The market played exactly as mapped — now it’s about decision time near 25K. Will the bulls charge ahead or pause? Either way, the structure favors short-term bullishness — but profit booking pressure near resistance must be expected.
🧠 “Momentum is a gift – but without volume and conviction, it fades at resistance.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
US30 Trade Update – 06/16/2025🚨 US30 Trade Update – 06/16/2025 🚨
📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
US30 is rebounding after holding above the 42,102 demand zone. Price is now reclaiming EMAs with short-term bullish momentum, approaching the 42,605 resistance level.
✅ Key Observations:
Strong bounce off 42,102 ✅
Reclaimed 42,341 EMA support
Bullish momentum building toward 42,605
📍 Key Levels:
Resistance: 42,605 → 42,793
Support: 42,248 → 42,102
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Long Setup:
Buy above 42,605
→ Target: 42,793 → 43,021
🔻 Short Setup:
Breakdown below 42,248
→ Target: 42,102 → 41,947
⚠️ Market flipping short-term bullish – watch for breakout and confirmation above 42,605!
NAS100 Potential ReversalHi there,
The NAS100 is slightly bullish and fairly stagnant. It is consolidating between two key levels (orange lines). A break below the price might fall into deeper demand zones.
Short Notes
- **Elliott Wave**: 5-wave structure appears complete at resistance (22,137.8), signalling a possible reversal.
- **Liquidity Zones**: Price is at/near a major liquidity zone, increasing reversal risk.
- **Break High**: There's a potential for a false breakout above wave 5 before dropping.
- **Support Levels**: The 21,800.6 (previous day high) and 21,146.2 (previous day low) for first support.
- **Demand Zones**: Strong demand below 21,146.2, with deeper support near 20,000 and 18,800.
- **Overview: A possible bearish move ahead from current highs, targeting lower demand zones.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
S&P500 INTRADAY support retest The Israel-Iran conflict has now entered its fourth day, with no signs of de-escalation. Iran launched more missile attacks, while Israel struck back, targeting a major gas field and a key military figure. Notably, Israeli strikes damaged Iran’s uranium facility in Isfahan, and an Iranian missile caused minor damage near the U.S. consulate in Tel Aviv.
While these developments added geopolitical stress, markets showed some resilience:
Oil prices pulled back after initial gains but remain volatile as the risk of supply disruption in the Middle East — a region supplying ~1/3 of global crude — persists.
S&P 500 futures edged higher, indicating investors are not fully in risk-off mode, but remain cautious.
On the political front, Donald Trump reportedly blocked an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader. He mentioned the possibility of a future agreement between the two sides but said more conflict may come first. Trump is attending the G7 summit in Canada today, where leaders will discuss how to manage the Middle East crisis and navigate diplomacy with Trump.
For S&P 500 traders:
Monitor oil prices — a sharp spike on new escalation could weigh on risk sentiment.
Headlines from the G7 and any sign of U.S. involvement or de-escalation efforts could shift markets.
Geopolitical risk remains elevated, but the market is currently pricing in a contained conflict.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6,058
Resistance Level 2: 6,138
Resistance Level 3: 6,200
Support Level 1: 5,953
Support Level 2: 5,913
Support Level 3: 5,845
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DXY ||| • Sell Completed Below Orange Line📉 Pair: GBP/USD
⏱ Timeframe: 4H
🔶 Orange Line = Major S/R Zone
📌 Confirmed Break + Retest
🎯 Profit Locked | Risk Managed
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel + SMC (Break of Structure)
🔶 Status:
Completed Wave 5 inside falling wedge
Sell executed after orange support break
Anticipating accumulation phase > BOS > bullish reversal
📍Key Zones:
Demand zone near 97.455
Resistance near 98.426
🎯 Next Steps: Looking for bullish structure post BOS + Wave 2 pullback.
🔁 Watch for:
Accumulation near lower trendline
Structure shift > Breakout of wedge
Long confirmations in late July – early August
🟢 Plan the trade, trade the plan.
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations.
10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY
1. 10-Year Bond Yield
Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY.
Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year.
2. Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline.
3. Interest Rates
Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar.
Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains.
Current 10-Year Treasury Yield
As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%.
Key Drivers of DXY in 2025
Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside.
Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY
technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
UK100/FTSE100 - SHORT THE HELL OUT OF UK - Team, last week we kill few times SHORTING ON UK100/FTSE100
Here is a million strategy from Active Trader Room
SHORT NOW at the current price 8992-96
DOUBLE SHORT at 8912-36
Target 1 at 8870-62
Target 2 at 8855-47
Please note: once it hit first target ,take 50% profit
the rule is always pocket first and reduce the risk.
LET'S MAKE ANOTHER MILLIONS THIS WEEK
BankNifty levels - Jun 17, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
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Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
Nifty levels - Jun 17, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
USNAS100 -Risk-Off Sentiment Keeps USNAS100 in Bearish TerritoryUSNAS100 – Bearish Momentum Holds as Traders Watch Geopolitical Risks and Fed Signals
The NASDAQ (USNAS100) remains under pressure as market sentiment stays cautious amid ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve outlook. While the geopolitical escalation has not triggered panic, it continues to weigh on risk appetite—particularly in tech-heavy indices.
Technical Outlook:
The price currently appears to be heading toward 21635. A 1H close below this level is expected to confirm further downside toward 21470.
A break below the key support zone could open the door to the next bearish leg targeting 21065.
To shift the structure to bullish, the price would need a confirmed 4H candle close above the 21790–21850 resistance zone.
Key Levels:
• Support: 21635, 21470, 21375
• Resistance: 21930, 22090, 22200