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NASDAQ - Medium term prediction - 16/06/25On the NQ around 21,638, I’d estimate roughly: Rally up through 22,248 first ~60% Slide down through 21,024 first ~40% Why? Up-trend bias: Since the April low (≈16,000), the market has been in a strong rally, clearing multiple interim highs. Resistance vs. support: 22,248 has capped rallies twice (Jan & Feb), so a break would be bullish but not guaranteed. Meanwhile 21,024 flipped to support in late May. Momentum: The recent pullback from 22,000 was shallow, and daily MACD/RSI remain in bullish territory, suggesting a higher chance to retest the upper line before failing.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Gamblers-Fallacy
Nifty Daily SMC Analysis – 13 June 2025 (Friday Close)📊 Nifty Daily SMC Analysis – 13 June 2025 (Friday Close) 🕯️ Daily Candle: Bullish • Open: 24473 • High: 24754 • Low: 24473 • Close: 24718 🧠 Market Structure (5-Candle Fractals – Daily Chart) • Last HL / CHoCH: 24502 • Last HH / BoS: 25222 ✔️ Structure is still bullish: HL → HH ✔️ Price respected previous HL; bullish continuation possible 📦 Key Smart Money Zones (Daily) ✅ 1st Bullish Order Block (OB): 24150 – 24447 ✅ Bullish FVG #1: 24164 – 24547 ✅ Bullish FVG #2: 24644 – 24671 ✅ Volume Filter Confirmed OB • Volume > 1.1× average • MA Period: 21 🧭 Price Context ✅ Closed as a green candle inside the Discount Zone ✅ Price rejected OB low (24447) and FVG midpoint ✅ Strong demand confluence between 24150 – 24550 🧨 Investment Strategy: Long Bias / Bullish 🎯 Trade Bias: Mildly bullish as long as 24502 (HL) holds 🛑 Invalidation: Daily close below 24150 OB low 📈 Target: Retest or break 25222 (HH) 🔍 Look for bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (15m–1h) inside OB/FVG zones ⚠️ Stay alert for liquidity sweep below 24500 as potential inducement 🔔 Summary Nifty continues to trade within a bullish SMC structure. With price closing inside a discount zone, reacting from a validated Bullish OB and multiple FVGs, there are signs of smart money accumulation. 📌 As long as 24502 holds, expect bullish continuation toward 25222. 📉 Structure turns neutral to bearish only if 24150 is broken on a daily close.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by MathThomas
Index/US) Bearish trend analysis Read The caption)SMC trading point update Technical analysis of U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 30-minute timeframe, with the price respecting a clear downtrend and repeatedly rejecting a resistance zone near the 200 EMA. --- Analysis Breakdown Key Technical Elements: 1. Downtrend Structure: The price remains within a descending channel. Multiple lower highs and lower lows signal sustained bearish pressure. 2. Resistance Zone: Highlighted near 98.490–98.495, aligned with the EMA 200. Multiple rejections from this level (indicated by red arrows), confirming strong supply. 3. EMA 200 (98.490): Acts as dynamic resistance. Price is below it, reinforcing the bearish bias. 4. Projected Move: Bearish price path targets the 97.189 level (target point). A measured move of approximately -1.30% is illustrated. 5. RSI (14): RSI currently at 46.27, below the neutral 50 mark. This confirms bearish momentum without being oversold, leaving room for further downside. --- Bearish Thesis: Repeated failure to break above key resistance + downward channel + RSI weakness suggests a continuation to the downside. Short-term consolidation expected before breakdown continuation. --- Trade Idea Concept: Entry: Sell on a minor pullback near resistance (~98.300–98.490), or breakdown below the recent minor support. Target: 97.189 zone. Stop Loss: Above 98.500 or EMA 200 to invalidate the bearish setup. Mr SMC Trading point Risks to Watch: A break and strong close above 98.500 would invalidate the bearish structure and could initiate a trend reversal. Economic events (noted by calendar icons) may trigger volatility – ideal to monitor closely around those times. plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
TVC:DXYShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
18
Consumer Services (Hotel & Tourism Sector) : SPCSECSP : CSE Fundamentals * Q4 2025 results indicate weakening momentum in the sector in respect of topline growth. * Combined YoY revenue growth for Q4 2025 of four biggest hotel operators listed in CSE AHUN, KHL, PALM & AHPL is just 1% * Major 5 STAR city hotels (AHPL, TAJ, SERV) combined revenue had recorded a negative growth of more than 5% (dropped by > 5%) during Q4 2025 comparative to previous year * CBSL data indicates USD Earnings per Arrival had dropped by 3.03% during April 2025 against 2024. This indicates deteriorating quality of arrivals. * No visible global promotional campaign during last 6-8 months * Country is entering the tourism off-season Technical Analysis (Chart Patterns) * After dropping aggressively (17%) from recent top, SPCSECSP index is consolidating between 484-514 area creating a bear flag formation while CSE is in a bull run. * If breaks down technical target would be 400-420 level (another 15-17% drop) * Weekly 20 SMA is curling down * Levels marked as 1,2,3 are support areas where investors can assess the developments for re-positioning. (levels 2/3 are strong support areas) Strategy Staying away from the sector and monitoring the progress/developments might be prudent while allocating capital for sectors with momentum/better growth * If technical pattern discussed above, breaks down estimated time it will take to reach major support area coincides with the start of next tourism season (Sep/Oct), where investors can assess the situation for re-positioning. Disclaimer * NOT financial advice * Investors should take their investment decisions based their own analysis
CSELK:SPCSECSPShort
by HR2302
NASDAQ TRADING ROADMAP 16 - 20 JUNI 2025📉 NASDAQ TRADING ROADMAP – STRATEGY OUTLOOK 📉 The NASDAQ has rejected Magnet Area (SpH4) 21767.00 – 22067.00, signaling potential downside movement. As long as price stays below Magnet Area (dmD) 21736.00 – 21863.00, the market is likely to continue its decline toward Magnet Area (dmH4) 21136.00 – 21020.00, especially if price breaks through Magnet Area (dmH4) 21524.00 – 21445.00. 📌 Roadmap Summary: 🔻 Rejection confirmed from (SpH4) ⬇️ Bearish bias valid while below (dmD) 🚨 Breakout trigger: (dmH4) 21524.00 – 21445.00 🎯 Target zone: (dmH4) 21136.00 – 21020.00 ⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk. Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
EIGHTCAP:NDQ100Short
by magnettrader_id
SPX500 BUYGreeting there traders this is my analysis on 📊 S&P 500 – Potential Elliott Wave 3 Formation | Long Setup The current 4H chart of the S&P 500 suggests a potential bullish continuation based on Elliott Wave Theory. Here's the structured breakdown: 🔹 Wave 1: Initiated after a failed breakout and sharp reversal from a previous resistance zone. This impulsive move marked a key shift in trend structure. 🔹 Wave 2: A corrective phase followed, consolidating near the support area (~5,915), respecting previous demand. 🔹 Current Price Action: Price has broken above the minor resistance at 6,000, indicating the potential beginning of Wave 3, which is typically the strongest and most extended wave in the sequence. 📈 Trade Setup: Entry: Above 6,000 (confirmation of breakout and wave continuation) Stop Loss: Below 5,915 (invalidates bullish structure if broken) Target Zone: 6,167 – 6,170 (aligned with prior resistance and wave projection) 🔍 Additional Notes: The breakout is supported by a clean structure and rejection from key support. Ideal scenario would involve increasing volume and continuation with higher highs and higher lows. 📌 Bias: Bullish – targeting Wave 3 extension. ⚠️ Always manage risk accordingly and watch for signs of exhaustion or divergence. Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
SP:SPXLong
by Zaks_ForexRules
Rising wedge + Bearish divergence + GAP at 5700 + new war !!!Rising wedge + bearish divergence + GAP down at 5700. And yes, a new war in the Middle East. Higher oil prices are coming — Iran controls the Hormuz Strait, where 20–30% of the world’s oil is transported. Yes, Iran is on the sanctions list, but other countries aren’t — they trade with Iran and resell the oil to the rest of the world. Triangle trade. But that supply of 20–30% is about to disappear due to the war. Higher oil prices mean higher expenses. A lot of the world still relies on oil as an energy source. We’re also out of the previous trend we had before the tariffs. DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
SP:SPXShort
by Cryptosiast00
NIFTY50.....Don't loose your panic!Hello Traders, the NIFTY50 is trading within a range of 25116 to 24462 point range. This range began on May 15th and is ongoing 'til this week! I have labelled this move as a wave 4! Chart analysis: If so to come, the next move should reach targets of roughly, 25574.90! Here, a wave 5 could end, or this was all of wave 1 of 5! If the move is a wave 1 of 5, the targets are much higher for the coming 2-3 weeks ahead! When it was all of wave 5 the next move would be a correction to the levels of 0.5 to 0.618 of the Fibo-retracements! In any case, the advance is not over yet, and should last for a considerable amount of time! If the index will exceed the former ATH @ 26277 points, here the risk is ascending for an end of an impulse! But, step by step! Due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, I recommend to step aside and wait for calm down the dispute in the coming days! Hopefully! This conflict has the potential to set the region on fire! In case of an escalation of this conflict, the risk would be really hard to forecast, but I guess the potential for a formidable crash is given! Protect your tradingaccounts with suitable products to prevent the situation from escalating (sell calls, for example)! I don't want to hear about anyone losing their entire trading account! Have a great week..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
3
S&P500 awaits new drivers for growthThe S&P 500 index has been moving in a perfectly sideways direction without any clear directional bias. This week had increased volatility a little bit, but not too much: the price was consolidating in a narrowing triangle, having expanded it to some extent. It’s possible to observe a continuation of a sideways action, at least until the interest rate decision from the FED next week and the press-conference of Jerome Powell, which might give (or might not give) any clarity about the possible direction of the market. Overall activity remains muted as summer’s slow price action dominates the action. Don't forget - this is just the idea, always do your own research and never forget to manage your risk!
CAPITALCOM:US500
by Stanislav_Bernukhov_Exness
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices 1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues. Current Data (June 13, 2025): 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases. Term Premium: The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed. 2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation Negative Correlation Generally Observed: The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities. Recent Trends: In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies. Risk Sentiment: The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety. 3. US100 and Bond Prices Indirect Relationship via Yields: Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling). Safe-Haven Demand: In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline. 4. Yield Curve and Market Implications The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks. A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100. Conclusion The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks. The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs. The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities. #NAS100 #DOLLAR
MARKETSCOM:US100Long
by Shavyfxhub
US100Correlation Between US100 (Nasdaq 100), 10-Year Bond Yield, and Bond Prices 1. Relationship Between 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and Bond Prices Inverse Relationship: Bond prices and yields move inversely. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, bond prices fall, and vice versa. This is because the fixed coupon payments become less attractive when yields increase, causing existing bond prices to drop to offer comparable yields to new issues. Current Data (June 13, 2025): 10-Year Treasury yield is around 4.40%, with the bond price near 98.81 (below par), reflecting recent yield increases. Term Premium: The term premium on the 10-year Treasury has risen sharply since early April 2025, reaching the highest level in over a decade. This premium compensates investors for risks that short-term yields may not evolve as expected, keeping long-term yields elevated and bond prices suppressed. 2. US100 (Nasdaq 100) and 10-Year Treasury Yield Correlation Negative Correlation Generally Observed: The Nasdaq 100 (US100), a tech-heavy equity index, often shows a negative correlation with 10-year Treasury yields. When yields rise, borrowing costs increase, discount rates for future earnings rise, and equities—especially growth stocks—tend to decline. Conversely, falling yields often boost equities. Recent Trends: In 2025, rising yields have put pressure on equities, including the Nasdaq 100, as investors demand higher returns from riskier assets. However, periods of yield stabilization or decline can support equity rallies. Risk Sentiment: The correlation can vary with market sentiment; during risk-off episodes, both equities and bond yields may fall as investors flock to safety. 3. US100 and Bond Prices Indirect Relationship via Yields: Since bond prices move inversely to yields, and yields often move inversely to equities, bond prices and equities like US100 often show a positive correlation in risk-off environments (both falling) and a negative correlation in risk-on environments (equities rising, bond prices falling). Safe-Haven Demand: In times of market stress, investors may sell equities and buy bonds, pushing bond prices up and yields down, while equities like US100 decline. 4. Yield Curve and Market Implications The US yield curve has steepened recently, with the 10-year yield (~4.40%) above the 2-year yield (~3.95%), reflecting expectations of higher long-term inflation and growth risks. A steepening curve can signal improving growth prospects but also higher financing costs, which can weigh on tech stocks in the US100. Conclusion The 10-year Treasury yield and bond prices move inversely, with recent yield increases pushing bond prices below par. The Nasdaq 100 (US100) typically moves inversely to 10-year yields, as higher yields raise borrowing costs and discount rates, pressuring growth stocks. The relationship between US100 and bond prices depends on market risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, bond prices rise while equities fall; in risk-on periods, the opposite occurs. The current steepening yield curve and elevated term premium suggest ongoing volatility and cautious investor positioning affecting both bonds and equities. #NAS100 #DOLLAR
MARKETSCOM:US100Long
by Shavyfxhub
Nasdaq must hold its line, otherwise more downsideMarkets are on edge. The Nasdaq is hovering just above its 200-day moving average and with so much angst in the market, this line must hold. If it breaks, risk sentiment could unravel quickly, and we could see a retest of recent 2025 lows. The trigger isn’t hard to find. Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting upward pressure on oil and energy. A sustained rally in crude would reignite inflation fears just as central banks begin easing. Powell was supposed to start cutting, but wars are always complicated. Higher energy costs hit consumers, slow growth and force policymakers to rethink their next moves. That’s a headwind for tech and growth names. Equities have enjoyed a solid run this year, pricing in a soft landing. But that assumption now feels shaky. Particularly for risky assets like the Nasdaq. The Dow might do better relative. The market isn’t just worried about geopolitics. It’s digesting the reality that inflation remains sticky. Bond yields are rising. Rate cuts are being pushed back. And oil isn’t helping. If the Nasdaq holds its 200-day line, the bulls stay in control. But a break below will shift the momentum. That’s why this week matters. We’re watching a simple but powerful signal. Stay above 20,500 and markets can stabilise. Break below, and volatility returns. This trade is only for the brave. The story is shifting. Stay alert. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Blueberry
3
Nifty Analysis EOD – June 13, 2025 – Friday 🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – June 13, 2025 – Friday 🔴 🕊️ Gap-Down on Geopolitical Tension – Buyers Step In at Crucial Support Nifty opened with a massive gap-down of 415 points at 24,473 triggered by overnight geopolitical tensions — testing a crucial swing low from May 22. Interestingly, the market formed an OL (Open = Low) pattern and staged a powerful 281-point intraday recovery, closing near the day’s high at 24,718.60. While the adjusted close still reflects a −0.68% drop, the price action was dominantly bullish. The strong bounce from the 24,460–24,520 demand zone — a region that had acted as a reversal zone multiple times earlier — reaffirms its significance. 🧭 If global cues stabilize or turn positive, this could pave the way for a bounce back toward 25,000. But if Friday’s low is breached, sentiment damage may deepen further. For now, intraday opportunities are preferable over positional plays, as uncertainty persists. 📝 A reminder from the May 22 note: “Is the retracement run finished? Technically, YES. A bold call, but unless global headwinds reappear, today’s low must sustain.” Nifty has once again honored this level — but the coming sessions will determine whether this bounce was genuine or temporary. 🛡 5 Min Chart with Levels 🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart 🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown Open: 24,473.00 High: 24,754.35 Low: 24,473.00 Close: 24,718.60 Net Change: −169.60 (−0.68%) 📊 Candle Structure Breakdown Real Body: 245.60 pts → 🟢 Strong Green Candle Upper Wick: 35.75 pts Lower Wick: None (OL Formation) 🔍 Interpretation Despite the gap-down, bulls took control right from the open. The absence of a lower wick signals firm intraday confidence. Closing near the high reinforces the buying strength, even on a net down day. 🔦 Candle Type 💚 Bullish Marubozu–like (OL) Candle– Represents a strong intra-session reversal, where buyers dominated from the very first tick. 📌 Key Insight Price respected the 24,460–24,520 zone, once again validating it as key support. If the next session crosses and sustains above 24,750–24,770, a short-term reversal confirmation could follow. However, a breakdown below 24,473 may renew bearish pressure. 🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart ⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 269.05 IB Range: 145.05 → Medium IB Market Structure: Balanced Trades:✅ 10:20 AM – Long Triggered → Target Achieved, Trailing SL Hit (RR: 1:1.7) 📌 Support & Resistance Zones Resistance Levels 24,725 ~ 24,735 24,825 ~ 24,847 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level) 24,882 ~ 24,894 24,972 ~ 25,000 25,060 ~ 25,080 Support Levels 24,660 24,640 ~ 24,625 24,420 24,365 ~ 24,330 24,245 ~ 24,220 💭 Final Thoughts Friday’s session was a battle between fear and resilience — and bulls showed up just in time. The key test ahead: can the index reclaim 25K or will the bounce fade away? 🧠 “Great rebounds are born from great fear — but follow-through is what separates noise from reversal.” ✏️ Disclaimer This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
US500 Will Fall! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for US500. Time Frame: 10h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,979.56. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,838.14 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:US500Short
by SignalProvider
1
Potential bullish scenario formulating for DXY. Target: 99.418.Higher timeframe analysis Thursday, 12 June 2025 saw the DXY take out the monthly low of 97.921. This poses the bearish monthly FVG as an immediate draw on liquidity at 99.418. Warranting a bullish bias till this level. Intermediate timeframe analysis This bullish bias is further confirmed by an initial consolidation identified on the 1H chart immediately below the said monthly FVG. This is a signature of the formation of a market maker buy model. Note the displacement to the updside which occurred at 21:00 EST leaving behind a bullish fair value gap on the 1H. This signals the beginning of the buyside of the curve of a market maker buy model. Scenario A potential long scenario could play out whereby price could respect the bullish 1H FVG at 97.999 and reprice updwards towards 99.418. I suspect that the target could be reached by Tuesday morning at 2:00 am - 3:30 am EST, though this is merely an estimation at best. This analysis is largely dependent on the reaction of price in the weekly open. Though in the event of a non-volatile market open this analysis holds decent probability. Alternate Scenario Should the above analysis fail the relative equal lows at 97.602 could be taken out before upside to 99.418 is seen.
TVC:DXYLong
by Th3L1qu1d1ty
1
SPX: geopolitics shaping sentiment Although the previous week on US equity markets started with a positive sentiment, still the newly emerged tensions in the Middle East turned the sentiment to the negative side. The S&P 500 was looking for higher grounds, after recently reaching the 6K level again, however, turning 1,13% to the negative territory on Friday, after the news regarding the Middle East tensions. The index is back below the 6K, closing the week at 5.976. While investors were digesting the risks from the Middle East tensions, tech companies were the ones that were mostly driving the index to the down side. NVDA dropped by 2,09%, AAPL was down by 1,38%. On the opposite side was TSLA, with a Fridays gain of 1,94%. On the other hand, the macro fundamentals were relatively positive for the US economy. The inflation is clearly calming down, with the US inflation in May at 0,1%, which was better from market estimate. Also the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment preliminary for June showed decreased inflation expectation by US consumers, at 5,1% for this year, from 6,6% posted previously. The most important event during the week ahead would be the FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, June 18th. The Fed will also discuss the economic projections. This would be a day to watch on financial markets as it can bring some higher volatility.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
NASDAQ Pullback or Reversal? Watching 4H Support ZonePrice is reacting from the 1D resistance zone around 21,950 and now hovering near a 4H support zone at ~21,520. • 1D Chart: Long wick rejection from resistance. • 4H Chart: Break of rising wedge and rejection from 1H trendline. • 1H & 23m Chart: Clear bearish order block formed. Price consolidating under broken structure. Key Zones: • Support: 21,500 / 21,325 • Resistance: 21,900 / 22,000 Bias: Bearish below 21,750. Retest of support expected.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by AutoMarkets