DXY NEXT MOVE AND MARKET EFFECTThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing a major multi-year support zone around the 99.70–100.00 level. This level has held firm multiple times in the past, acting as a strong demand area during key macroeconomic cycles. Right now, price action is showing indecision with a clear do-or-die moment forming. If bulls defend this zone, we could witness a significant bullish reversal, potentially targeting the 103.00–105.00 range. However, a decisive break below this support could trigger a bearish wave toward the 96.00 handle or even lower.
Technically, this zone is not just psychological, but also a structural demand region, aligning with previous swing lows and price pivots. We’re seeing a potential for either a double bottom reversal or a breakdown structure forming, depending on how the market reacts in the coming sessions. Price is extremely oversold on higher timeframes, which could fuel a relief rally if momentum shifts. The reaction here will be key for broader market direction, especially as the dollar plays a pivotal role across forex majors.
Fundamentally, the DXY is under pressure as recent U.S. macro data reveals weakening momentum. March CPI printed hotter than expected, but other indicators like core PCE, NFP softness, and signs of slowing consumer demand are fueling expectations that the Fed may be nearing a policy pivot. At the same time, global risk sentiment is improving and yields have pulled back slightly, putting pressure on the greenback. However, rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continue to support USD as a safe-haven asset.
As a professional trader, this is a critical level to watch. I’m keeping an eye on price action confirmation for either a bullish engulfing setup or a clean break and retest of the 99.50 level. Both scenarios offer high-probability trades. Patience here is crucial — let the market reveal its hand, then align with the momentum. Dollar volatility is likely to remain elevated heading into next week, so managing risk with clarity is key.
Market indices
ASX Weekly Market Wrap: XJO, LYC, IMD, NST, APA & CHC in FocusASX Weekly Market Wrap: XJO, LYC, IMD, NST, APA & CHC in Focus
In this week’s market analysis, we break down key price movements and trends across the #ASX, with a close look at the XJO and standout stocks like Lynas Rare Earths (#LYC), Imdex (#IMD), Northern Star (#NST), APA Group (#APA), and Charter Hall (#CHC). We explore current momentum, trend direction, and price action indicators to help you spot opportunities and make more confident trading decisions. Whether you're paper trading or actively investing, this is your must-watch guide for the week ahead.
Market on Edge: Tariffs, Tension, and Market Turmoil(The following is for informational purposes only and reflects personal opinions, not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any financial decisions.)
In the coming weeks, the U.S. stock market is likely to remain driven by news flow, with investors closely watching the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs.
Last week, market sentiment remained extreme fearful as the impact of the tariff measures continued to ripple through the markets. The U.S. bond market sell-off prompted President Trump to announce on Wednesday a 90-day delay on tariff implementation for countries other than China. This announcement triggered a sharp market rebound that forced many short sellers to cover their positions. However, as the tariff delay did not fundamentally resolve the underlying uncertainty surrounding trade policies, the market failed to sustain its gains on Thursday and Friday.
At present, U.S.-China trade tensions continue to escalate, and no successful trade agreement has been announced yet. The market is seeking more concrete positive developments—such as tax cuts from the Trump administration, or the signing of trade agreements with major economies that include tariff reductions—before uncertainty can be lifted and a meaningful rebound achieved.
For now, it is better to remain patient and let the news develop, with minimal trading activity. Market direction will largely depend on future actions from the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, making it difficult to rely on technical analysis alone to determine the market trend.
Currently, the 19,988–20,382 range serves as a critical resistance zone. A breakout above 20,382, sustained over time, would indicate that bulls are gaining control. Conversely, if the price stays consistently below 20,275, it suggests that bears remain dominant.
Until clear, favorable news emerges, further downside in the market is possible. However, shorting at these levels also carries significant risk, as any policy shift or positive announcement from Trump could trigger another sharp rebound—similar to what occurred last Wednesday.
DXY/USD sell 1D chart analysisThis chart is for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the daily timeframe (1D) from FXOPEN. It shows a clear bearish trend structure with multiple CHoCH (Change of Character) and Break of Structure (BoS) labels, indicating a bearish market sentiment.
Chart Analysis Summary:
The DXY is in a downtrend, showing successive lower highs and lower lows.
There's a strong supply zone marked in red around the 107.8–110.8 level.
Price has just broken below a previous structure, suggesting continuation downward.
Trade Setup (SELL):
Entry Point: Around 99.800 (current price zone or slightly after a minor pullback)
Stop Loss (SL): 101.00 (above the most recent high/supply zone and invalidation area)
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 96.000 (first key support zone)
Final Target (TP2): 89.400 (major support zone as seen on the chart)
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DXY SELL SETUP – Daily Timeframe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown multiple bearish CHoCH and BOS confirmations. Price has broken key structure and is currently retesting a premium area. We are anticipating continued bearish pressure based on trend structure and liquidity targets below.
Entry: 99.800
Stop Loss: 101.000
Take Profit 1: 96.000
Final Target: 89.400
This setup aligns with overall market structure and momentum. Stay updated for management and scaling instructions.
Moustafa! My analysis and view for US 30! on 16.03.2025!- I expected a huge bearish wave would hit the index by end of December and also in January and I sat an idea for it and it was right and that is the new idea
- On the weekly frame, you would notice that the index is in a rising channel
- Formed a double top pattern and even broke the neckline of it and is supposed to go to minimum the Take profit 2 then after the retrace towards the take profit 3
- The index retraced to the upside due to the uptrend line in green and there is a possibility that it could continue the bullish run but I do not expect here that a weekly candle would close above the neckline before reaching to the below TPs
- The lower weekly candles wicks from 15.04.2024 and 05.08.2024 must be filled anyway, which is giving another confirmation to the validation of this idea concept and the continuation of the bearish wave on the weekly chart! we could see on the way some retracements on the daily frame and the lower frames, but that will not have any influence on the bigger bearish image!
- The index had broken already the uptrend line (in red) which was not broken from October 2023! and the last week candle closed under the moving average 50!
- By reaching to the TP3, means that the index would go to the lower line of the rising channel
-- Conclusion is that we are in a bearish market on the weekly chart and the real target is exactly when the index will reach to the line (in yellow)
I sat also another idea for Nasdaq
which I see also there the continuation of the big bearish wave on the weekly chart! so feel free to have a look on too! so all is going in harmony together!
TASI Weekly Chart AnalysisFalse breakdown or trapdoor setup?
Saudi market bounces sharply off 200W MA + horizontal support. Classic Stage 3 to 2 retest in action?
•Massive bullish engulfing after shakeout
•Held key support zone near 11,100
•RSI rebounding from oversold territory
•Volume spike = institutional footprint
•Above 11,556? Stage 2 breakout confirmed
•Long-term target: 13,955+
Saudi bulls: Are you ready?
#TASI #Tadawul #SaudiStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #MiddleEastMarkets #StockMarket
TASI Weekly Chart AnalysisFalse breakdown or trapdoor setup?
Saudi market bounces sharply off 200W MA + horizontal support. Classic Stage 3 to 2 retest in action?
• Massive bullish engulfing after shakeout
• Held key support zone near 11,100
• RSI rebounding from oversold territory
• Volume spike = institutional footprint
• Above 11,556? Stage 2 breakout confirmed
• Long-term target: 13,955+
Saudi bulls: Are you ready?
#TASI #Tadawul #SaudiStocks #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #MiddleEastMarkets #StockMarket
US 30 - Ranges overview Let's see what the charts are telling us on US 30.
Similarly to US 100 we are currently redistributing after a clean retracement towards the HTF sellside.
Pretty easy plan as always.
IF we hold 36970 expect us to aggressively trade towards 42500. From a LTF perspective - the current price action is ideal for scalpers. So don't hesitate to play the LTF ranges BASED ON THE HTF ranges.
IF deviate and hold below 36970 we will revisit 35597. We have a LTF inverted FVG sitting between 37620 and 36970 so keep an eye on it.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
US 100 - Ranges overview Let's see what the charts are telling us on US 100.
Just like US 30 US 100 retraced and is currently in a redistribution phase.
From a HTF, as long as we hold 16771.6 expect us aggressively trade towards 19000 and 20500.
IF we fail to hold 16771.6 expect us to retrace towards the 16771.6 and 15201 range. Any clean close below 16771.6 and the market will aggressively seek the sellside liquidity around 15201.
As always WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO SHOW YOU ITS HAND.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
NIFTY Weekly Chart AnalysisStage 3 topping? Or new Stage 2 rally incoming?
NIFTY bounces hard off the key support (21,900 zone) after undercutting the base.
• Broke the Stage 4 downtrend (purple line)
• Strong bullish bar with volume
• Price reclaimed 30W MA, RSI rising from oversold
• Next test: 23,300–23,500 zone
• Long-term target: ATH >26,000 if breakout holds
This is where smart money positions.
Accumulation or Distribution? Watch volume next 2 weeks.
#NIFTY #NSE #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading #Stocks
One more wave down for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD went straight into the target last week. From there it rejected and made a bigger correction (orange) wave X (updated wavecount).
Next week we could see the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
BANKNIFTY WEEK AHEAD - ( APRIL 3RD WEEK )Nifty Bank is looking positive on charts. If BankNifty manages to cross and sustain above 51200, then we can expect upside to continue up to levels of 51976-52280. If due to any news factor, BankNifty breaches the 51000 level, then it can fall upto the level of 50200 to even 49825.
All levels are marked in the chart posted!!
NIFTY WEEK AHEAD - ( APRIL 3RD WEEK )Nifty chart is indicating a chance for upside in the upcoming week . Base for upside is 23000 as it is an important resistance and upon crossing 23000 successfully, we can expect upside momentum to continue upto 234450-560. All levels are marked in the chart posted .