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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) | MACRO OUTLOOKWe’re currently trading at $99.58 — down 8.2% from the recent high around $114.77. Looking at this 12M chart, we see DXY failing to hold its breakout above the previous cycle highs. 🟣 Key Historical Levels: Last major high: 1985 peak Previous structure high: $121.18 Long-term support zones: $88.25, $75, and $72.81 🔻 Macro view suggests we could be entering another multi-year corrective phase if momentum doesn’t reclaim previous highs. What’s next? Will the dollar revisit deeper support — or surprise us with a reclaim and breakout? 👁 Stay alert. This chart isn’t just about the USD — it impacts commodities, equities, emerging markets, and crypto. #DXY #USDollar #MacroTrading #LongTermOutlook #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyMoves #RecessionWatch
TVC:DXYShort
by MoNi_MoN
USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month. Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
Navigating Trump Tariffs on the Dow JonesNavigating the movements of the **US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)** can be challenging, especially amid shifting economic policies. The Dow, which tracks 30 major U.S. companies, is highly sensitive to trade policies, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks. Trump’s plan to impose **10% across-the-board tariffs** and **60%+ tariffs on Chinese goods** has sparked concerns about inflation, supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory trade measures. Investors are closely watching how these policies could impact multinational companies within the index, particularly those reliant on global trade, such as **Boeing, Apple, and Caterpillar**. For everyday Americans, higher tariffs could mean **rising prices on imported goods**, from electronics to household items, worsening inflation. While tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, they often lead to **higher production costs** for businesses that rely on foreign materials, potentially triggering job cuts or reduced consumer spending. The stock market’s reaction—volatility in the US30—reflects these uncertainties, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth against potential benefits for U.S. manufacturers. Traders navigating the US30 must monitor **Fed policy, corporate earnings, and trade war developments**. If tariffs escalate, defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare) may outperform, while industrials and tech could face pressure. Long-term investors might see dips as buying opportunities, but short-term traders should prepare for turbulence. Ultimately, Trump’s tariff policies could reshape market dynamics, making adaptability key for those trading the Dow.
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Education
by KeN-WeNzEl
Trade Idea: US30 Long ( BUY LIMIT )Technical Justification: 1. Daily Chart: • Price has recently bounced strongly from a significant support zone around 37,675, confirming a bullish rejection. • RSI is rising from oversold levels (currently around 48), showing momentum is shifting upwards. • MACD is still negative but starting to converge, signaling a potential reversal in the mid-term. 2. 15-Minute Chart: • Strong bullish move, breaking through previous structure highs. • MACD and RSI are both in bullish territory, RSI ~63, not yet overbought. • Price consolidating around 40,090, suggesting possible continuation. 3. 3-Minute Chart: • Micro trend is clearly bullish. • Minor consolidation after a push upward — ideal for breakout or pullback entry. • RSI at ~49, healthy for continuation, MACD slightly bullish. ⸻ Fundamental Backdrop (as of now): • Earnings season in the US is ongoing with strong reports from major companies. • Rate cut expectations later in the year are improving market sentiment. • Recent data suggests soft landing scenario, supporting risk-on assets like equities. ⸻ Trade Setup: • Direction: Long (Buy) • Entry: 40,050 (pullback entry) • Stop Loss (SL): 39,750 (below recent breakout base) • Take Profit (TP): 40,650 FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
Russell2000 rising wedge in downtrend?Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 1980 Resistance Level 2: 2039 Resistance Level 3: 2076 Support Level 1: 1850 Support Level 2: 1813 Support Level 3: 1785 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US2000
by TradeNation
Pre-market Plan- Consolidating at highs,potential gap fill below(The following is for personal views only and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.) Currently on the 4-hour chart, price remains above the 200 SMA. RSI shows slight overbought signals, while the EMA suggests there is still upward momentum. After the Asian session, a short-term downtrend has formed. Price is currently forming a downward flag, which could lead to further downside movement. After market open, price is likely to first move down to capture liquidity, with primary targets at 19062 and 19038. If a reversal occurs, there is a high probability for the price to retrace upward to fill the NDOG at 19266. If bulls take control, ideally this should happen before 10:00. Afterward, there is a chance to break through to EHPDA 19505, but considering the overbought market condition and lack of strong catalysts, the probability of a significant move higher today is relatively low. If the price continues to rise, watch levels at 19891 and 20370. Look for reversal opportunities at these key levels. To the downside, watch PDL 18493, and gaps at 18280 and 18000 as potential targets. Due to Friday’s influence, the market may range between 19061–19505 today, with a potential move to fill the lower gaps next week. Price action after the open will help further confirm market sentiment. If Bullish – Price should show a clear rebound after liquidity is taken. If Bearish – If price breaks 19036 and fails to rebound effectively, expect significant downside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by zygliu
Option Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 3 of 4: Gamma ScalpingOption Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 3 of 4: Gamma Scalping Gamma Scalping is a trading strategy that combines long option positions with a hedging position in the underlying asset to isolate and profit from the convexity of options. It is essentially a non-directional swing trading strategy that aims to capture price swings—regardless of direction—by neutralizing the linear component of option value changes and focusing on the convexity gains. ________________________________________ How It Works Gamma Scalping begins by purchasing a single option or a strangle, and simultaneously entering a hedging position in the underlying to achieve Delta neutrality (the "Delta hedge"). The strategy then waits for a swing in the underlying price in either direction. Because of the long Gamma position, the position’s value is a convex function of the underlying price. This means that the position will either: • Gain more than the Delta hedge in a favorable move, or • Lose less in an adverse move. The combined position becomes profitable as the underlying moves, regardless of direction. The linear component of the option’s value change—driven by Delta—is hedged, so any residual profit comes from the convexity, i.e., the Gamma. To realize this convexity profit, the Delta hedge is re-adjusted after the swing has played out. In other words, after the market appears to have reached a turning point, the position is brought back to Delta neutral. The optimal adjustment points are at the sequential peaks and troughs of the market. Rebalancing at intermediate points captures some convexity value, but typically less than adjusting only at clear turning points. This is illustrated in the two subcharts of the introductory chart. ________________________________________ How Does Gamma Scalping Make Money? The change in the value of an option due to a change in the underlying price is approximately the sum of the Delta-weighted change in the underlying (the linear portion) plus a Gamma-weighted convexity component (convexity portion). • The linear portion is hedged by the underlying. • The convexity portion remains and represents the profit opportunity. While the convexity component is typically smaller than the potential linear gain, it is always positive—unlike the linear term, which is only profitable when the direction is predicted correctly. ________________________________________ What’s Being Traded? Gamma scalping involves adjusting the hedging position—not the options—at perceived turning points in price swings. The options position is kept intact as long as it maintains sufficient Gamma to deliver meaningful convexity. Even in volatile markets that demand frequent trading, all activity is confined to the underlying, which tends to be liquid and low-cost to trade. Once the option’s Gamma decays significantly, the entire position (options + hedge) may be reset to “refresh” the Gamma exposure. ________________________________________ What’s the Catch? The convexity value isn’t free—it comes at the cost of time value decay, as measured by Theta. If Delta neutrality isn’t re-established promptly during a swing, even a brief counter-move in the underlying can erode the accumulated convexity gains due to time decay. Gamma scalping thus becomes a race between capturing convexity and losing value to Theta. The key challenge lies in timing: • Too early: Frequent adjustments reduce overall convexity capture. • Too late: Time decay eats into the gains. • Too slow: As expiration approaches, the range in which sufficient Gamma exists narrows, shrinking the window of opportunity. Despite these challenges, Gamma scalping offers an appealing alternative to traditional directional swing trading, with a more nuanced risk profile. However, it does require experience in managing Theta—especially with short-dated options. ________________________________________ Is Gamma Scalping the Opposite of Time Value Trading? In a way, yes, but not quite. Time value trading involves selling options and Delta hedging them—such as in volatility premium strategies (e.g., selling index strangles). These traders aim to minimize realized volatility and capture the decay of implied volatility. By contrast, Gamma scalping buys options and seeks to maximize realized volatility—through the trader’s own hedging actions. The subtle differences in hedge execution distinguish these two approaches. This contrast—and what it means to minimize or maximize realized volatility in a hedging strategy as well as time value trading itself—will be explored in more depth in Part 4 of the “Options Insights – Trading the Greeks” series. ________________________________________ Coming Up Next: 📘 Part 4: Time Value Trading and Volatility Premium by parsifaltrading
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
Nifty Analysis EOD - April 25, 2025🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - April 25, 2025 🔴 "Inside Bar Alert — Calm Before the Storm"… And Then the Storm Hit! 📊 Market Recap: A Walk? No. A Sprint Downhill! As we noted in yesterday’s report, the Inside Bar setup was hinting at a possible breakout—today, it delivered that breakout with thunder and lightning. And if you blinked, you probably missed it. Nifty opened at 24,289, looked like it might test bullish waters by attempting PDH twice within the first 15 minutes, but the sellers were just getting warmed up. What followed was a merciless 400-point drop in just 30 minutes, slicing through level after level like a knife through butter. Zone after zone fell like dominoes: CDO CPR Zone PDH S1, S2, S3, S4 24,225, 24,188 200 SMA at 24,052 24,000 ~ 23,951 Zone Virgin Zone 23,905 ~ 23,872 Absolutely brutal sell-off. No mercy. No pause. Just raw momentum to the downside. 🕯️ Daily Candle Structure: Long-Legged Bearish Today’s daily candle adds a strong bearish tone to the chart: Open: Flat to Mild Gap-Up High: 24,365.45 Low: 23,847.85 Close: Deep in red Despite a small attempt at recovery near the lows, buyers couldn’t even regain the opening level. What’s left is a long-legged bearish candle, indicating volatility, intraday recovery attempt, and bear dominance. 📌 This type of candle often signals distribution or exhaustion, especially when it appears after a long rally. If the next session continues the bearish move, this might be the start of a short-term correction. If we get a bullish bounce, then today’s low may act as a temporary support. 🔍 Recalling the Setup: We previously observed a Hanging Man on April 23, signaling a possible reversal. Then, the Inside Bar formed on April 24—a classic setup for a breakout. ✔️ Our expectation: 1x Mother Bar Range as a move ✔️ Bias: Slightly Bearish due to the Hanging Man and overall overextended rally ❌ Expectation: Didn’t expect this much bloodshed this fast! 📌 Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 347.27 IB Range: 405.4 (Extra Large IB) Market Structure: Balanced 🎯 Trade Highlights: No System Trade: Setup didn’t align with risk management rules Additional Trade (Discretionary Contra): Long Entry Triggered at 12:35 PM ✅ Target Achieved: 1:3.7 Risk-Reward 📉 Index Performance Snapshot: Nifty 50: -207 Points (-0.86%) Bank Nifty: -537 Points (-0.97%) Nifty 500: -332 Points (-1.5%) Midcap: -1399 Points (-2.5%) Smallcap: -416 Points (-2.45%) Midcaps and smallcaps took the biggest hit, showing broad-based weakness across the market. 📌 Key Levels to Watch 📍 Resistance Zones: 24,050 24,120 24,190 ~ 24,225 24,330 ~ 24,360 24,480 ~ 24,540 24,800 📍 Support Zones: 24,000 ~ 23,950 (Immediate) 23,820 23,710 ~ 23,660 23,500 23,410 ~ 23,370 23,215 🧭 Final Thoughts: "The storm doesn't announce itself with thunder—it begins with silence. Yesterday was silent. Today was the thunder." The Inside Bar setup has played out, but now eyes are on whether we get follow-through selling or a relief bounce. The next session’s first 30–45 mins might give a clue. ✏️ Disclaimer ✏️ This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
The Bear Is Dead. Long Live the Bull.From Fakeout to Full Send - SPX Flips Bullish You could almost hear the financial media pop champagne today. “Markets Surge Amid Easing Trade Tensions” they yelled. “Global confidence returns!” they assured. And sure, that’s a cute story. But for us, Wednesday’s bear push now looks like a feint. A setup. A spring. By Friday, the bull had not only taken the ball - it ran with it. That V-shaped reversal pattern on the daily chart? It’s live. And it’s loud. Technically, it’s now pointing to a projected upside of 6106. That’s not just some random number. That’s the prior range high zone coming back into focus. And in case you needed a reminder… The bear is dead. Long live the bull. (until it isn't) --- SPX Market View - Bullish Flip Confirmed Wednesday gave us a classic tease. Bearish energy. A flicker of downside. But it fizzled fast. Then came Thursday - and with it, a clean sweep into Friday. The V-shaped daily reversal triggered. Price pushes off the lows Sentiment flipped And a new upside target emerged at 6106 It’s not just technical fluff. This level marks a structural return to the previous range highs - a natural magnet for bullish continuation. Meanwhile, I’ve done a bit of chart housekeeping myself. After two months of letting bias sneak in and lines and notes multiply like rabbits, I’ve hit the reset button. 🧹 Clean charts. Clean mind. Just the essentials. The direction has changed - and I’m treating it with fresh eyes. One line I am keeping? 5400. It’s been the pivot point for weeks. A battle-tested zone. It now serves as the bull’s first major checkpoint. If price respects that level on any dip, it’s game on. And if we breach it? That’s when the doubt returns. --- 💡Expert Insights: Common Trading Mistakes & How to Avoid Them MISTAKE: Letting cluttered charts and old bias cloud current decisions. FIX: Regularly clean your charts — strip them down to what matters. Use setups that speak for themselves (like the V-shape). Don’t bring yesterday’s opinion into today’s trade. A new direction demands a new perspective. And as price shifts, so must your lens. --- 🗞️Rumour Has It… BREAKING: Powell Declares Bull Market, Blames Moon Phase for Midweek Bear Tease Financial news outlets were caught scrambling when the SPX reversed higher through thursday despite Wednesday’s doom-and-gloom. “Clearly the moon was in retrograde,” Powell reportedly muttered, while clutching a Fibonacci ruler. In other news, China's trade delegation released a statement saying, “We’re not sure what’s happening either.” (This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.) --- 🤯Fun Fact - The Original “Clean Chart” Addict Was… Jesse Livermore Before indicators, algos, and triple-screen madness, Jesse Livermore – the OG speculator – was famous for trading from price and price alone. In fact, he refused to use charts with clutter. He would manually draw his price levels, log his trades by hand, and sometimes go days without placing a trade – waiting for the market to tip its hand. His trading edge? Patience. Price action. And a clean, unobstructed read. One of his favourite tricks? He’d mentally mark key inflection levels (like your 5400) and wait until price either exploded past or rejected hard before acting. So next time you reset your chart – you’re not just decluttering… You’re channelling Livermore.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
"STOXX50/EURO50" Index Market Money Heist (Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "STOXX50/EURO50" Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Moving Average Line area. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe nearest or swing low or high level for pullback entries. Stop Loss 🛑: 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (4900) Day/Swing trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 5370 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 💰💵💸"STOXX50/EURO50" Index Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bullish trend.., driven by several key factors.☝☝☝ 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro Economics, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Future trend targets with Overall outlook score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
VELOCITY:STOXX50Long
by Thief_Trader