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Next week will be challenging for S&P 500 bullsNext week looks challenging for S&P 500 bulls. The price is stuck in a descending triangle pattern, and if it breaks below this week's low of 5,807, the market could trigger the pattern, suggesting a potential 3.8% drop to 5,596. However, staying above this week's low could allow for sideways movement or even a push higher. In the short term, the outlook remains bearish as long as the price stays below 5,933. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:SPX500
by ThinkMarkets
S&P 500 Sees Possible Bearish Signs Like the ‘Mini Death Cross’We recently had the lack of a so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” an omission that’s historically a negative sign for stocks. And now, the S&P 500 SP:SPX -- the broadest large-cap U.S. equity index -- has developed a pattern of bearish reversal as well. Check out the SPX’s chart going back six months through Wednesday (Jan. 8): Readers will see that the S&P 500 developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal in late October and stretching into 2025, as denoted by the three purple triangles to the right of the above chart. This pattern displays a neckline/pivot point of 5,827 -- slightly above the 5,810.68 that the S&P 500 was trading at midday Friday, but even with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the index’s August low to its December high. This 23.6% Fibonacci level (denoted by one of the thick blue horizontal lines at the chart’s left) makes the SPX’s 5,827 level all that much more important as a potential pivot. Pivot points typically represent where support or resistance show up for a stock or index, depending on the price action’s direction. A pivot point can also act like an accelerant or slingshot if the stock or index breaks the pivot level. Elsewhere in the above chart, readers will see that the S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index (the gray bar at the chart’s top) was neutral as of Wednesday's close. However, the index’s daily Moving average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom -- had repositioned itself to appear more bearish. The histogram of the index’s 9-day exponential moving average -- or “EMA,” marked with blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- was running below zero. That’s often reflective of a recent loss of upward momentum. Meanwhile, the 12-day EMA (the black line at the chart’s bottom) moved below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s a historically bearish move. Additionally, the S&P 500 is undergoing what’s called a “swing traders' cross” or “mini death cross.” That’s a bearish “cross-under,” where a stock or index’s 21-day EMA (the green line in the chart above) moves below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above). Where Does the S&P 500’s Chart Show Support? With Friday’s break below the above chart pattern's neckline, the S&P 500’s next key support level could be 5,605 -- the “half-way back point” or a 50% retracement of the index’s August-to-December run. (While common, 50% retracements are not true Fibonacci levels.) (At the time of writing this column, Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no positions in S&P 500 ETFs or index funds.) Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into. Past performance is no indication of future results. Investing involves risk and the potential to lose principal. This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
SP:SPX
by moomoo
1
Potential Bear Flag Breakdown in the Russell 2000The Russell 2000 small cap index fell sharply last month, and now traders may see risk of further downside. The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of higher highs and higher lows since December 18. Given its preceding drop, that could be viewed as a bearish flag that’s resolving to the downside. Second, short-term indicators may be viewed bearishly. MACD has been falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Third is the November 19 low of 2284. RUT probed it early this week but quickly reversed. Has old support become new resistance? Finally, you have the big picture. This benchmark is the only major index in the last year that failed to sustain new highs versus 2021. That relative weakness may be consistent with a lack of investor enthusiasm. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
TVC:RUT
by TradeStation
SPX Continues to Fall Following the NFP ReleaseAfter the surprising report of 256k jobs created compared to the expected 160k, the U.S. index has experienced a decline of over 1% in the last trading hours. This is due to the perception that strong employment data could be counterproductive to the outlook for future interest rate cuts by the Fed. Lateral Range: Recently, the price has been trading within a significant lateral range between the 6k-point ceiling and the 5.8k-point floor. With the recent bearish movement, a break below the lower boundary of the channel could end the current consolidation and favor a new short-term bearish outlook. Sustained oscillations below the mentioned support level could define the next downward price movement. RSI: At the moment, the RSI is oscillating below the indicator's neutral 50 line. This indicates that bearish momentum dominates the market, with no signs of oversold conditions that might suggest potential bullish corrections. Key Levels: 5.8k: This level currently serves as the relevant support zone, coinciding with the lower boundary of the lateral channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Persistent oscillations below this level could support a bearish outlook in the coming sessions. 6k: This represents the primary resistance level on the chart. Oscillations near or above this level could end the ongoing bearish pressure and pave the way for new all-time highs. 5.6k: The next significant support zone, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Oscillations near this level could lead to a solid bearish trend and completely negate the long-term uptrend that has been in place since August 2024. By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
SP:SPX
by FOREXcom
US Labor Market Surprises and Redefines Expectations for the FedThe US labor market has ended 2024 with unexpected strength, significantly exceeding market expectations. The addition of 256,000 new jobs in December, the highest figure in nine months, contrasts with forecasts of 160,000, consolidating a year of economic resilience. This robust data adds to a series of positive economic indicators, such as the services PMI and job openings, strengthening the narrative of a reduced need for an aggressive stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This labor market performance, bringing the total jobs created in 2024 to 2.2 million, though below the 3 million in 2023, directly impacts monetary policy expectations. Markets now more strongly anticipate that the first rate cut may not occur until the second half of 2025, with some suggesting it could be the only downward adjustment. This outlook diverges significantly from the Fed's revised projections at its December FOMC meeting, which reduced rate cut expectations from four to two for the next year. The strength of the US labor market, highlighted in the December non-farm payroll report, raises questions about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory. This data, coupled with other positive economic indicators, suggests that the economy might be holding up better than expected, potentially delaying the need for rate cuts. A sectoral breakdown reveals particular dynamism in areas like healthcare (+46,000 jobs), government (+33,000), and retail trade (+43,000), the latter recovering from a contraction in November. However, certain weaknesses in manufacturing (-13,000 jobs) are evident. This strengthening of the US dollar, driven by robust economic data, is reflected in the DXY index, briefly reaching the 110 mark with a gain of approximately 0.7%. This appreciation of the dollar pressures emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, where the Mexican peso posted losses of over 0.8%. Additionally, downward pressure is observed in the equity markets, with the S&P 500 falling more than 1.5%. The market’s reaction to this data is clear: a stronger dollar, higher fixed-income yields, and pressure on equities. This scenario underscores the importance of closely monitoring the evolution of the US economy and its impact on global markets.
PEPPERSTONE:USDX
by Pepperstone
Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors?█ Understanding Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors? Short sellers often have a controversial reputation, viewed by many as market manipulators who profit from falling stock prices. However, recent research sheds light on an unexpected and valuable role they play: providing liquidity to the market, especially during critical moments like news releases. Let’s break down this concept in a way that’s approachable for everyone while maintaining the insights of the academic findings. █ What Is Short Selling? In simple terms, short selling is a trading strategy where an investor borrows shares of a stock, sells them, and hopes to buy them back later at a lower price to pocket the difference. While this might sound straightforward, it’s a high-risk activity because the potential losses are unlimited if the stock price rises instead of falling. For long-term investors, the goal is usually to buy strong companies that will grow over time, benefiting from compounding returns and supporting broader economic growth. On the other hand, short selling tends to attract risk-seekers who aim to profit from price declines. Unfortunately, many inexperienced short sellers get burned by the complexities of market dynamics, including the balance of supply and demand for liquidity. █ Why Is Short Selling Important? Despite the risks, short sellers are essential to the financial markets. They help correct overpriced stocks and bring balance to valuations, contributing to more accurate pricing. Moreover, they provide critical insights during times of market euphoria or uncertainty. One example of their importance is the role of short sellers during events like the “short squeezes” in GameStop or Volkswagen. These situations occur when a stock’s price skyrockets, often fueled by retail traders or unexpected news, forcing short sellers to buy back shares at higher prices. While dramatic, such events highlight the complex interaction between short selling and market liquidity. █ A Fresh Perspective: Short Sellers as Liquidity Providers Traditional thinking often casts short sellers as aggressive traders who demand liquidity—placing orders that consume existing bids or offers in the market. However, a recent study challenges this view, showing that some short sellers do the opposite: they provide liquidity. Using transaction-level data, the study reveals that informed short sellers strategically supply liquidity by posting and maintaining limit orders. These orders help stabilize markets, especially during volatile periods like news days. This behavior contrasts with the common perception of short sellers as disruptive forces, instead positioning them as contributors to market efficiency. █ Key Findings from the Research The research, titled Stealthy Shorts: Informed Liquidity Supply, presents several critical insights: ⚪ Liquidity-Supplying vs. Liquidity-Demanding Short Sales: Liquidity-supplying short sellers place limit orders, offering to sell shares at specific prices. Liquidity-demanding short sellers use market orders, which take the best available prices. The study found that liquidity-supplying short sales are more predictive of future stock returns than liquidity-demanding ones. ⚪ Predictive Power of Liquidity-Supplying Shorts: Stocks with high levels of liquidity-supplying short sales underperform those with low levels over a 21-day holding period. This pattern suggests that these short sellers have a long-term informational edge. ⚪ Impact on Price Discovery: By providing liquidity, these short sellers help narrow bid-ask spreads, making it easier for other investors to enter or exit positions at favorable prices. ⚪ Informed Trading: Liquidity-supplying short sellers often act on information not yet fully reflected in stock prices. For example, they are particularly active and accurate around news days when fresh information enters the market. █ Implications for Investors and Regulators The findings challenge regulators and market participants to rethink their views on short sellers. While short selling is often criticized for its potential to destabilize markets, this study highlights a more nuanced role: informed short sellers contribute to market liquidity and efficiency. For everyday investors, this means that short sellers aren’t just betting against companies but also helping ensure that stock prices reflect their true value over time. █ Takeaways for Beginners If you’re new to investing, here’s what you should know: Short selling is risky and generally not recommended for beginners. The potential for unlimited losses makes it a strategy better suited for experienced traders. Short sellers play a vital role in financial markets by helping correct mispricings and improving liquidity. Understanding the mechanics of liquidity supply and demand can provide valuable insights into how markets function. █ Final Thoughts This research highlights the dual role of short sellers, particularly the most informed ones, as both traders and market stabilizers. By offering liquidity and acting on long-lived information, these traders help create more efficient markets, benefiting everyone from retail investors to large institutions. As always, a deeper understanding of market dynamics can empower better investment decisions and help you navigate the complexities of the financial world with confidence. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
SP:SPXEducation
by Zeiierman
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level. However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
4
S&P 500 IndexThe chart displays the S&P 500 Index from the TradingView platform. It shows candlestick patterns reflecting price movements, a yellow line at the 5,927.89 level that appears to act as a resistance level, and a projection of future movement, suggesting an upward move to the resistance followed by a sharp decline. Technical Analysis and Possible Actions: Resistance Level (5,927.89): This level may serve as an area of increased selling pressure. If the index reaches this point and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bearish candlestick pattern or weakening indicators), it could signal a selling opportunity. Action Plan: Look for confirmation to enter a short position near the resistance. Use technical indicators like RSI or MACD to check for signs of overbought conditions or momentum loss. Potential Downside Targets: Support levels seem to be around 5,904 or lower, depending on the strength of the downward move. Technical Indicators: The lower part of the chart shows indicators that may point to the strength and momentum of the current trend. Ensure they align with the expected move for confirmation.
SP:SPXShort
by tradexict
S&P 500 Analysis: Key Levels and Impact of NFP NewsS&P 500 Analysis The price is currently ranging between 5895 and 5918, awaiting a breakout to determine the next direction. A break below 5895 is likely to push the price into a bearish move toward 5863. If the price remains above 5895, it may attempt to reach 5937 before any potential decline. A break above 5937 would signal a bullish continuation towards 5969. If the price stabilizes below 5863, it is expected to drop further to 5825. Note: Today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data release is expected to have a significant impact on the market, potentially driving volatility and influencing these key levels. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5900 Resistance Levels: 5937, 5969, 6002 Support Levels: 5863, 5845, 5825
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
NASDAQ - In preparation for the great Q4 earnings!Hi guys, we would take a look into the NASDAQ 100 today. Currently we have some of the biggest companies which will show their Q4 earnings by the end of January, just to name a few - Microsoft,AMD,Netflix,Google,JP Morgan,BlackRock,TSM,Tesla These companies represent a very big portion of the NASDAQ Composite, and if they deliver some great numbers this would give the necessary boost that we need to push the price towards our target. Currently from a fundamental perspective these earning calls , would end up providing the necessary benefitiary to boost up the prices , due to the sheer volume that would be generated. From a Technical perspective : We can see that the price is currently situated on a very strong support level, with an additional boost from the RSI indicator which is showcasing a formulation of an Ascending pattern ahead. Entry: 21,135 Target 1: 21,500 Target 2: 21,855 Target 3: 22,350 As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
IG:NASDAQLong
by DG55Capital