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ASML HOLDING N.V - BUY APPROVEDASML Buy Recommendation is Certified. 1. The major trendline since 2009 has been tested and remains solid. 2. The Fibonacci retracement is currently at the 0.618 level, the ultimate prime level. 3. The Fibonacci extension consistently proves accurate. 4. The presidential election year is historically the best time to invest, plus the stock is currently discounted. 5. ASML holds a global monopoly in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology. 6. Earnings have consistently been excellent, with the company being highly profitable. 7. Some market pressures are driven by American interests, aiming to undermine ASML in order to prevent the sale of machines to China. TARGET: 1450 EUR
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by TheAverageTrader00
The European Diaper King: Ontex GroupCompany Overview Ontex Group, a Belgium-based company, is one of Europe’s largest producers of diapers, primarily focused on supplying white-label (non-branded) products to retailers. Despite being relatively unknown to the general public, Ontex's products are widely used across Europe and, increasingly, in the U.S. Initially, Ontex pursued a growth strategy centered on expanding into emerging markets with branded diaper products. However, this approach fell short of expectations, leading to a drop in its share price from €30 to around €5, positioning the company as a potential acquisition target. Strategic Shift and Current Focus To improve financial stability, Ontex pivoted its strategy toward producing white-label diapers rather than branded products. Additionally, it has gradually divested from emerging markets, with the final sales currently underway, refocusing on its established European market and expanding into the U.S., where white-label diapers are a growing segment. This shift is in line with increased cost-consciousness among U.S. consumers, especially in light of rising living expenses and a preference for domestic products over imports from countries such as China. Market Position and Opportunities Ontex operates in a relatively stable market, supported by consistent demand for diapers driven by birth rates and demographic trends. While European market growth is constrained by low birth rates and economic challenges, the U.S. market presents significant opportunities. Currently, white-label diaper products occupy a smaller share in the U.S., but this is changing as consumers look for cost-effective alternatives, which supports Ontex’s expansion and revenue potential in the region. Financial Performance and Valuation Ontex is currently undervalued at approximately 5 to 6 times EBITDA, with a market cap of around €600 million. The company’s board has introduced an incentivized stock options program for management, designed to encourage significant share price growth. If successful, the CEO stands to receive €16 million if Ontex’s share price doubles by the end of the upcoming fiscal year. This aligns management's interests with shareholders and may indicate a higher likelihood of short- to mid-term stock appreciation. Acquisition Potential Ontex has garnered interest from private equity firms due to its reliable revenue base in the diaper industry. The company’s restructuring and focused U.S. expansion increase its attractiveness as a takeover target. In addition, Ontex’s largest shareholder, an activist fund with a 15% stake, supports a sale of the company. Previous acquisition offers for Ontex were reportedly in the range of €20-27 per share, though these were dismissed. Given current market conditions, an offer in the range of €16-21 could be expected if a private equity acquisition were to proceed. Competitive Landscape and Risk Factors Despite growth potential in the U.S., Ontex faces competitive pressure in Europe, where low-cost discounters have placed margins under strain, affecting even large consumer brands like Nestlé and Unilever. While the U.S. market remains more resilient, any increase in price sensitivity or competition from domestic white-label manufacturers could impact Ontex’s long-term growth in this region. Investment Summary Ontex presents a potentially attractive investment due to: * Upside Potential: Undervalued shares and the possibility of a buyout at a premium. * Stable Revenue Base: Consistent demand for diapers, particularly through white-label products. * Strong Management Incentives: Board members are heavily incentivized to increase the share price. * Growth in the U.S. Market: Opportunities in an underserved segment with rising consumer demand for white-label products. However, risks include economic pressures in Europe, competitive dynamics from discounters, and potential volatility due to activist investor involvement. Investors considering Ontex may benefit from a cost-averaging strategy during market fluctuations to secure a favorable entry price. Final statement I am personally anticipating a potential acquisition by a private equity firm. An offer in the range of $22–$23 per share would represent approximately triple the current share price.
EURONEXT:ONTEXLong
by marc_kober
The pearl of the aviation/defense industry: Dassault AviationOverview In this report, we analyze an undervalued and lesser-known stock in the aerospace and defense sector. While many investors focus on established giants like Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin, this gem offers a compelling opportunity due to its unique market positioning, low valuation relative to peers, and multiple growth drivers. The geopolitical climate, recovering business jet demand, and strategic stakes in adjacent industries create a favorable investment case. Key Investment Highlights 1. Market Position and Peer Comparison: o The company is undervalued compared to its peer group. Despite operating in the high-demand aerospace and defense sector, it trades at a lower Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA multiple and offers a lower next-12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio than major competitors like Boeing. o Strategic stakes in other companies, such as a substantial 25.85% holding in Thales SA, significantly contribute to its intrinsic value, while also benefiting from cross-sector synergies. 2. Product Line and Market Potential: o The company manufactures both military and business aircraft, including the Rafale series of combat jets and the Falcon business jet series. The business jet market, which operates as a near-oligopoly, includes only a few competitors like Gulfstream and Bombardier, creating a strong market niche. o Business jets and their related service revenues account for 25% of the company's income. This sector's high margins and steady demand from affluent customers, largely resilient to economic cycles, provide additional stability to the revenue base. 3. Global Geopolitical Tailwinds: o The ongoing increase in military budgets worldwide, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and China, will likely lead to long-term, robust demand for defense equipment. o Many NATO countries, particularly in Europe, are increasing their military spending to meet target levels, offering an anticipated tailwind for this company’s defense segment. 4. Business Jet Market Recovery: o Since the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for business jets has rebounded, with significant growth potential in Asia. The company recently launched the Falcon 6X and Falcon 10X business jet models, addressing the aging fleet in the market, with an average fleet age of 18 years. o Increasing wealth in Asia, with hundreds of new millionaires emerging daily, suggests a positive growth outlook for luxury and business jet demand. 5. Stable Revenue from Services and Maintenance: o The aerospace sector typically experiences steady income from maintenance services, essential for keeping aircraft operational. The demand for private jet maintenance remains high, even during economic downturns, especially among high-net-worth individuals. o This focus on service revenue translates into predictable free cash flow, a record-high order book, and strong long-term visibility. Financial and Valuation Analysis • Valuation Metrics: The company trades at approximately 9.2 times the P/E ratio and 4 times EBITDA, considerably lower than the broader peer group average. This valuation reflects a significant discount, particularly given the company’s promising outlook and high industry relevance. • Ownership and Management: The company’s majority ownership by a prominent French family (Dassault Family), holding 66.11% of shares (Groupe Industriel Marcel Dassault), indicates a potential alignment with shareholder interests, bolstering stability and strategic direction. • Stock Buybacks: The company has consistently executed share buybacks, repurchasing over 20% of outstanding shares since 2015 at favorable valuations, further enhancing shareholder value. Long-Term Growth Catalysts 1. Military Budget Increases: Rising global defense budgets due to heightened geopolitical risks create a favorable environment for sustained defense spending. 2. Wealth Growth in Asia: Rapid economic growth in Asia supports a steady increase in demand for business jets, reinforcing the company’s prospects in this niche. 3. New Product Launches: The introduction of the Falcon 6X and 10X models targets the luxury business jet market, where the replacement cycle and market demand are aligned for growth. Ethical Considerations This investment opportunity, while financially compelling, is situated in the defense sector. Investors should consider their stance on ethical investing, as a portion of the company’s revenue is derived from military products. Conclusion The stock represents a strong value opportunity within the aerospace and defense sector, bolstered by its underappreciated valuation, diverse revenue streams, and high-growth market segments. With long-term tailwinds in place, this company has the potential to deliver attractive returns as it continues to capitalize on both military and business aviation demand. It’s important to keep in mind that if Trump wins and manages to ease the current political tensions (though it’s uncertain if he will), this stock may become less appealing. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
EURONEXT:AMLong
by marc_kober
ASML: A Key Moment to Take Advantage of Bearish SentimentCurrent Context ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is at a critical juncture. Recently, its share price has fallen nearly 24%, driven by a downward revision to its 2025 sales projections largely because +20% of its sales were being generated by China and now the country has seen competitors replace its best-selling technologies. Sales are now expected to range between 30 and 35 billion euros, compared to the previous forecast of 30 to 40 billion. This revision is due to a slower recovery in its traditional markets, especially in logic chip production and limited production capacity in the memory sector. Operational Analysis Despite this pessimistic review, ASML's growth prospects remain robust. The company maintains a dominant position thanks to its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, crucial at a time when demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is on the rise, driven by artificial intelligence, 5G and digital transformation. Although relations with China have weakened thanks to European interventionist policies, ASML anticipates that growth in segments outside China will offset this decline. The growing need for advanced semiconductors is expected to continue to support its growth in the medium term. Valuation Analysis From a valuation standpoint, ASML presents itself as an attractive opportunity. It currently has an EV/sales ratio of 9.5, which is 18.9% below its five-year average. It is estimated that the company's value could increase 30% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $360 billion, based on revenue projections of $36 billion by 2025. Furthermore, with a non-GAAP P/E of 34.5, which is also below its historical average, ASML appears undervalued compared to other industry players. Technical Analysis From a technical point of view the stock has been losing value since July 11. The last strong downward movement occurred on October 15, subsequently the downward pressure has kept the stock during the whole month and the beginning of November down. A bearish delta channel is visible and clearly marked by the POC price around €627 per share. This price retracement has caused the stock to reach December 2023 prices, prior to the Christmas rally. At the moment RSI is oversold at 32.49% so it is not strange if the firm's share price recovers value towards €753 which is the last delta pressure zone indicated in the next trading area. Risks to Consider However, not everything is positive. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly impact ASML's valuation. China accounts for more than 20% of the country's sales and it is a very high risk for the company to lose this major market because it is the market that can be a competitor with global suppliers and government support. The emergence of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which receives subsidies from the Chinese government, represents a long-term challenge. While these concerns may seem distant, it is essential not to underestimate their potential effect on the market. Conclusion Despite the risks, the combination of ASML's current valuation and its monopoly in EUV technology suggests that it is an appropriate time for investors to consider a position in this stock. With a solid growth outlook and favorable investment conditions, ASML is positioned as a strategic buy in a well-managed portfolio. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by ActivTrades
Heineken Stock Alert: Testing Key Support Levels!Back in May, Heineken (HEIA) held steady at a high of $96 per share. Fast forward, and we’re now seeing a substantial dip, with the stock hovering around $75. But this isn’t just any price level—it’s a historical support zone, rooted in the post-COVID recovery period where Heineken found a solid foundation after previous market downturns. Why does this level matter? Historical Strength: This support zone has proven resilient in the past, catching the price during major pullbacks. Many investors view it as a potential “floor,” a level that might attract buyers looking for value. Potential Rebound Opportunity: If Heineken finds momentum here, it could signal a reversal, especially if positive shifts in the consumer sector bolster confidence.
EURONEXT:HEIALong
by Charts_M7M
Bottom Fishing = Gucci and YSL saleTechnical Analysis: Inverse head and shoulders sent this luxury brand conglomerate to the post Covid bull market highs. But we are in the midst of a rapid decline, with over a 70% drop in stock value. I expect us to start finding support at the key horizontal levels as Kering aims to implement cost cutting measures to slow the sinking ship. This should bring better value to stock holders who believe in the long term sustainability of this French luxury giant. Fundamental Analysis: **Bull Thesis on Kering (KER)** Kering, a major player in the luxury goods sector, owns high-end brands such as Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Alexander McQueen. Despite the prestige of these brands, Kering’s stock has experienced a steep decline of over 70% from its peak, leading to its current valuation as a potentially undervalued opportunity in the luxury market. 1. Chinese Consumer Demand Already Priced In: Concerns about reduced demand from Chinese consumers due to economic slowdowns have contributed to Kering’s significant stock drop. However, these risks appear largely priced in, as the market has already discounted the stock heavily, reflecting worst-case scenarios. Luxury demand in China, while affected by economic uncertainty, remains a key part of Chinese culture, and with the start of new stimulus from the Chinese government, spending in the luxury sector could rebound. 2. Moat and Brand Power: Kering’s portfolio includes some of the world’s most iconic luxury brands. Gucci, in particular, is known for its enduring appeal, while brands like Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta appeal to high-net-worth consumers globally. This brand recognition forms a durable moat, giving Kering pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury space, even as spending patterns fluctuate. 3. Global Liquidity Cycle Upside: Central banks, particularly in the U.S. and China, have shown a willingness to intervene through stimulus measures during economic slowdowns. Should we see another global liquidity injection or stimulus cycle, Kering’s luxury products could benefit as high-net-worth individuals increase discretionary spending. Luxury stocks tend to outperform during these cycles as increased liquidity fuels consumer confidence and spending power. 4. Cost-Cutting Initiatives: Kering has also taken proactive steps to streamline operations and cut costs, which could stabilize margins even if revenue remains under pressure. These measures could position Kering to see greater profitability when demand eventually recovers, leveraging both improved efficiency and brand strength. With high-end brands, a recognized moat in luxury, and operational improvements underway, Kering offers an appealing opportunity as it trades at a discount to its historical value. The luxury sector's resilience, combined with central bank actions and Kering’s cost-saving strategies, may set the stage for a compelling rebound in the stock price. I will be looking to add as price finds a base and at the first sign of a reversal in a strong downtrend. Not financial advice
EURONEXT:KERLong
by NoFOMO_
Bottom Fishing - Gucci, YSL on saleTechnical Analysis: Inverse head and shoulders sent this luxury brand conglomerate to the post Covid bull market highs. But we are in the midst of a rapid decline, with over a 70% drop in stock value. I expect us to start finding support at the key horizontal levels as Kering aims to implement cost cutting measures to slow the sinking ship. This should bring better value to stock holders who believe in the long term sustainability of this French luxury giant. Fundamental Analysis: **Bull Thesis on Kering (KER)** Kering, a major player in the luxury goods sector, owns high-end brands such as Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Alexander McQueen. Despite the prestige of these brands, Kering’s stock has experienced a steep decline of over 70% from its peak, leading to its current valuation as a potentially undervalued opportunity in the luxury market. 1. Chinese Consumer Demand Already Priced In: Concerns about reduced demand from Chinese consumers due to economic slowdowns have contributed to Kering’s significant stock drop. However, these risks appear largely priced in, as the market has already discounted the stock heavily, reflecting worst-case scenarios. Luxury demand in China, while affected by economic uncertainty, remains a key part of Chinese culture, and with the start of new stimulus from the Chinese government, spending in the luxury sector could rebound. 2. Moat and Brand Power: Kering’s portfolio includes some of the world’s most iconic luxury brands. Gucci, in particular, is known for its enduring appeal, while brands like Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta appeal to high-net-worth consumers globally. This brand recognition forms a durable moat, giving Kering pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury space, even as spending patterns fluctuate. 3. Global Liquidity Cycle Upside: Central banks, particularly in the U.S. and China, have shown a willingness to intervene through stimulus measures during economic slowdowns. Should we see another global liquidity injection or stimulus cycle, Kering’s luxury products could benefit as high-net-worth individuals increase discretionary spending. Luxury stocks tend to outperform during these cycles as increased liquidity fuels consumer confidence and spending power. 4. Cost-Cutting Initiatives: Kering has also taken proactive steps to streamline operations and cut costs, which could stabilize margins even if revenue remains under pressure. These measures could position Kering to see greater profitability when demand eventually recovers, leveraging both improved efficiency and brand strength. With high-end brands, a recognized moat in luxury, and operational improvements underway, Kering offers an appealing opportunity as it trades at a discount to its historical value. The luxury sector's resilience, combined with central bank actions and Kering’s cost-saving strategies, may set the stage for a compelling rebound in the stock price. I will be looking to add as price finds a base and at the first sign of a reversal in a strong downtrend. Not financial advice
EURONEXT:KERLong
by NoFOMO_
BUYS ON TEP💡 Today we analyze Teleperformance (TEP) Teleperformance is a solid company in a downward trend since January 2022, but it could be a buying opportunity if it breaks the resistance marked in purple. We will look for purchases if it closes above €123, avoiding purchases at current prices. 1. Robust Financials: Its diversified model provides stability. 2. Global Growth: The expansion into international markets is steady. 3. Technological Innovation: Investments in technology enhance efficiency and customer experience. 4. Technical Opportunity: A close above €123 may signal a change in market sentiment. Conclusion: Although the stock has been in a downward trend, breaking key levels could open the door to a recovery. Evaluating the situation is crucial before making decisions. This analysis is not an investment recommendation.
EURONEXT:TEPLong
by AnalisisDeBolsaDiario
Analysis: LVMH Misses Third-Quarter Revenue ExpectationsOverview: LVMH, the world's largest luxury-goods company, reported lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue. The company's organic revenue fell 3% to €19.08 billion, missing analysts' forecasts of €19.94 billion. This decline was primarily driven by weaker demand in China and a broader slowdown in the luxury sector. Key Factors: China's Economic Slowdown: China, once a growth engine for the luxury sector, has become a significant challenge. The country's economic malaise, marked by a sluggish real-estate sector and uncertain economic outlook, has led to reduced consumer spending on luxury goods. Performance by Division: LVMH's core fashion and leather-goods division, which includes high-end brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw a 5% decline in organic revenue. The wines and spirits business, which includes Hennessy cognac and Moet & Chandon champagne, experienced a 7% drop in organic revenue. Regional Performance: Sales in LVMH's Asian market, dominated by China, fell 16% in the third quarter. In contrast, Japan saw a 20% increase in organic revenue, although this was a slowdown from the previous quarter's 57% growth rate. Western Markets: In the U.S., LVMH's organic revenue was flat, while Europe saw a 2% increase. Western consumers, especially the less affluent, have been cutting back on luxury purchases due to continued price increases and a weaker economic backdrop. Outlook: Despite the challenges, some investors remain hopeful that China's economic-stimulus plans could lead to a recovery in the luxury market. However, analysts caution that it is too early to see the effects of these measures. EURONEXT:MC Recommendation: Hold Given the current economic uncertainties and the mixed performance across different regions and divisions, it is prudent to hold LVMH shares for now. While there are potential recovery signs in China and Japan, the broader luxury sector's slowdown and ongoing economic challenges suggest a cautious approach. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in ​losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are ​comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk ​Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset ​derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. ​Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully ​understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how ​Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider ​whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
EURONEXT:MC
by TheTrade_Academ
Tencent and Guillemot Brothers evaluate the purchase of UbisoftUbisoft, the famous video game developer responsible for sagas such as Assassin's Creed and Far Cry, is in the midst of a financial crisis that has caused a 50% drop in its shares over the last year. Faced with this situation, Tencent and the Guillemot Brothers, the company's founding family, are considering acquiring full control of the company, according to Bloomberg. This potential deal would turn Ubisoft into a private equity firm, with Tencent holding a stake of less than 10%, with no veto rights or ability to sell its shares for the next five years. Meanwhile, the Guillemot Brothers would retain operational control of the company, in an attempt to stabilize it and keep other potential buyers away. Key points: • Financial crisis: Ubisoft has lost 50% of its stock market value in the last year. • Possible acquisition: Tencent and the Guillemot Brothers are negotiating a deal to take control of the company. • Market impact: Ubisoft shares jumped more than 30% following rumors of the takeover. • Terms of the deal: Tencent would have no veto rights and could not sell its stake for five years. • Future of Ubisoft: The goal is to revitalize the company and protect it from further acquisitions. • This move could mark a new stage in Ubisoft's history as it struggles to regain its position in the video game industry. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:UBI
by ActivTrades
UBISOFT REKT- What happens when you're one of the biggest video game companies in the world and you rest on your laurels? You sink. - That said, as traders, we can always attempt to capitalize on a dead cat bounce. - Right now, nothing to buy, if Ubisoft not down more and bounce before, just forget it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trading Parts : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Buy around 10€ ( 30% invest ) - DCA Rebuy to 8.5€ ( 70% invest ) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - TP1 : 17.9€ - TP2 : 29.9€ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SL : 5.9€ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stay S4fe Happy Tr4Ding !
EURONEXT:UBILong
by thecryer
An opportunity that may not come againIn the last 2/4 of this year, we’ve seen a lot of interchangeable manager decisions, taking place in this company. Starting with a lot of partnerships changing, different stakeholder, decisions, taking place, and finally the CFO moving on with his career.. But that doesn’t mean that this is the end of this company. On the contrary, It is exactly what Warren Buffett always stresses on, which is “ Buy, when there is blood on the street”. This company has a lot of potential engineer to her, and even in the future, knowing that the industry itself is witnessing an increase in demand and at the same time, the number of people need the care Is increasing in demand. This is strictly not a financial advice or recommendation, but rather my own Idea. Everyone should take his own decisions and risks when it comes to money and investments. I only encourage you to think. You might oppose my idea which is normal.
EURONEXT:EMEISLong
by Sal98
4
Historical buying zoneHello , This is not financial advice / not investing advice , do your home work please , i just provide my point of view and educate , thank you . As presented in the wave trend indicator , We fell to an over sold area under the green line , which represent usually the best time to buy hence bottom area , only 2 times before we enterd this over sold area . Looking at the price making lower low and both Rsi and WT doing higher low or same , giving a bullish divergence ... Make the bullish case stronger . The hirizontal trend line comes from the 6month chart . Happy to hear your thoughts . Gl and enjoy.
EURONEXT:UBILong
by sharonfa
1