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SLC Brazilian Agricultural Producer and Farmland Investor ThesisExecutive Summary We are overweighting SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) over U.S. agribusiness stocks (BG, ADM, MOS, CTVA, FPI) in the current macro environment. The key drivers are: Geopolitical arbitrage (Trump-Russia détente benefits Brazilian exporters more than U.S. firms). FX tailwinds (weaker USD boosts BRL-denominated farmland values). Commodity cycle positioning (SLC’s cotton/soy mix outperforms U.S. corn/ethanol plays). Valuation gap (SLCE3 trades at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. peers). Top Trade: Long SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) I. Macro & Geopolitical Edge: Why Brazil Wins 1. Trump’s Pro-Russia Policy Reshapes Fertilizer & Grain Flows Sanctions Relief: Russian potash/phosphate exports resume → BrasilAgro (AGRO3) and SLC benefit from 25-30% lower input costs (U.S. farmers already hedged). U.S. Grain Export Risk: If Trump pushes Ukraine grain deals, ADM/BG lose pricing power in EU/Asia markets. 2. USD Weakness Favors BRL-Linked Assets Fed Cuts + Trump’s Dollar Policy: BRL appreciation (R$4.60/USD by 2026E) boosts: SLC’s USD-linked revenue (68% of sales). Land appraisals (Brazilian farmland up 18% CAGR in USD terms). U.S. Companies Hurt: ADM/BG’s LatAm earnings face translation drag. 3. BRICS Neutrality vs. U.S.-China Decoupling Brazil remains trusted supplier to both China and EU (no trade wars). U.S. agribusiness (ADM/BG) exposed to: China soy tariffs (if Trump escalates). EU carbon taxes (ADM’s ethanol margins at risk). II. Company-Specific Advantages: SLC vs. U.S. Peers A. SLC Agrícola (SLCE3.BZ) – The Optimal Play Metric SLC Agrícola U.S. Peers (ADM/BG/MOS) P/E (2025E) 9.1x 12-18x EBITDA Margin 38% (2025E) 8-15% FX Benefit BRL appreciation USD translation drag Geopolitical Shield Neutral (BRICS) Exposed to U.S.-China wars Key Catalysts: Cotton Supercycle: Trump’s EU-China trade war could spike prices (SLC has 40% exposure). Hidden Water Rights: 120k hectares of irrigated land (R$3.2B unreported NAV). Ferrogrão Railway Completion (2026): Cuts logistics costs by 18%. B. U.S. Agribusiness: Relative Weaknesses Stock Key Risk Mitigation ADM Ethanol mandate cuts (Biden hangover) Divesting plants BG Brazilian tax case (R$4.5B liability) Land asset cover MOS Saudi JV delays (CFIUS scrutiny) Fertilizer optionality CTVA Patent cliff (2027+) M&A speculation FPI U.S. farmland cap rate compression Rent escalators III. Conclusion: Why SLC Over U.S. Peers? Geopolitical Arbitrage: Brazil avoids U.S.-China/EU trade wars. FX Leverage: BRL appreciation boosts USD earnings + land values. Commodity Mix: Cotton/soy > corn/ethanol in Trump’s policy regime. Valuation: SLCE3 at 9.1x P/E vs. 14x+ for U.S. stocks.
BMFBOVESPA:SLCE3Long
by beckett_07
Tenth day of decline - CMIG4 heading towards the TargetCMIG4 (R$ 10,06) walking to Target. ---> Mar 24 (CMIG4 = R$ 10,80) CEMIG shares are showing a considerable decline in the coming months . Unofficial studies indicate a Submarket exposure of around 700 average MW, with a Long position in the Northeast submarket and a Short position in the Southeast submarket for the year 2025. The effects of these exposures will start to affect the company's cash flow as of the financial settlement in March/25 (which should happen by the end of April/25), extending until mid-July/25. The study indicates effects of around -R$200 million in Q1/2025, which could reach -R$500 million by Q2/2025.
BMFBOVESPA:CMIG4Short
by diegobosa10
CEMIG shares show projections of considerable declineCEMIG shares are showing a considerable decline in the coming months . Unofficial studies indicate a Submarket exposure of around 700 average MW, with a Long position in the Northeast submarket and a Short position in the Southeast submarket for the year 2025. The effects of these exposures will start to affect the company's cash flow as of the financial settlement in March/25 (which should happen by the end of April/25), extending until mid-July/25. The study indicates effects of around -R$200 million in Q1/2025, which could reach -R$500 million by Q2/2025. BMFBOVESPA:CMIG3 BMFBOVESPA:CMIG4 BMFBOVESPA:CMIGP1!
BMFBOVESPA:CMIG4
by diegobosa10
1
Vale - Breaking Trade 12/3/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Vale's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key support level where the price struggled to break through. Eventually, a breakout occurred with a strong bearish candlestick, confirming sellers' strength. However, instead of entering immediately at the breakout, the ideal entry point would be on the pullback to the red zone. After the breakout, the price retraced back to the support zone, which then acted as resistance. Notice how the price tested this zone but failed to close above it, indicating that sellers remained in control. The optimal entry would occur when the price breaks below the low of the retracement candle, confirming the continuation of the bearish move. This approach allows for a more precise entry, reduces risk by setting a stop-loss above the resistance zone, and offers a better reward-to-risk ratio as the trend resumes downward. It’s a textbook example of a breakout-retest setup with confirmation. Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
BMFBOVESPA:VALE3Short
by Alexandre_Saldanha_
Ambev - Breaking Trade 12/03/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Ambev's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key resistance level where the price struggled to break through. Eventually, a breakout occurred with a strong bullish candlestick, confirming buyers' strength. However, instead of entering immediately at the breakout, the ideal entry point would be on the pullback to the red zone. After the breakout, the price retraced back to the resistance zone, which then acted as support. Notice how the price tested this zone but failed to close below it, indicating that buyers remained in control. The optimal entry would occur when the price breaks above the high of the retracement candle, confirming the continuation of the bullish move. This approach allows for a more precise entry, reduces risk by setting a stop-loss below the support zone, and offers a better reward-to-risk ratio as the trend resumes upward. It’s a textbook example of a breakout-retest setup with confirmation. Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
BMFBOVESPA:ABEV3Long
by Alexandre_Saldanha_
Weg - Breaking Trade 12/4/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Weg's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key resistance level where the price struggled to break through. Eventually, a breakout occurred with a strong bullish candlestick, confirming buyers' strength. However, instead of entering immediately at the breakout, the ideal entry point would be on the pullback to the red zone. After the breakout, the price retraced back to the resistance zone, which then acted as support. Notice how the price tested this zone but failed to close below it, indicating that buyers remained in control. The optimal entry would occur when the price breaks above the high of the retracement candle, confirming the continuation of the bullish move. This approach allows for a more precise entry, reduces risk by setting a stop-loss below the support zone, and offers a better reward-to-risk ratio as the trend resumes upward. It’s a textbook example of a breakout-retest setup with confirmation. Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
BMFBOVESPA:WEGE3Long
by Alexandre_Saldanha_
Bradesco - Breaking Trade 12/4/2024There was a great breakout trade opportunity on Bradesco's stock, enhanced by a refined entry strategy. The red zone highlights a key resistance level where the price struggled to break through. Eventually, a breakout occurred with a strong bullish candlestick, confirming buyers' strength. However, instead of entering immediately at the breakout, the ideal entry point would be on the pullback to the red zone. After the breakout, the price retraced back to the resistance zone, which then acted as support. Notice how the price tested this zone but failed to close below it, indicating that buyers remained in control. The optimal entry would occur when the price breaks above the high of the retracement candle, confirming the continuation of the bullish move. This approach allows for a more precise entry, reduces risk by setting a stop-loss below the support zone, and offers a better reward-to-risk ratio as the trend resumes upward. It’s a textbook example of a breakout-retest setup with confirmation. Thank you for reading! If you found this content helpful, don’t forget to like, comment, and share the idea. Follow me on TradingView!
BMFBOVESPA:BBDC4Long
by Alexandre_Saldanha_