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Canopy Growth Corporation – High-Risk, High-Reward SpeculationThe stock of Canopy Growth Corporation experienced an unprecedented rally following its initial public offering (IPO). After a brief correction phase, the share price surged from CAD 0.25 to an all-time high of CAD 744.50 within four and a half years — an increase of over 244,000%. A sharp decline followed, interrupted by a temporary rebound that reached a new record high of CAD 766.80. This movement marked the beginning of a massive correction phase during which the stock dropped to CAD 1.09 — a loss of more than 99% from its peak. At the low point of this move, a five-wave impulse structure emerged for the first time, which, according to Elliott Wave Theory, could indicate the potential end of the larger corrective Wave 2. The following analysis takes a closer look at this initial impulse, including the resulting price development and potential entry zones for speculative investors. The analysis is based on Elliott Wave Theory and reflects a subjective market interpretation. The corresponding wave count can be found in the attached chart. Market Structure According to Elliott Wave Theory On April 9, 2025, Canopy's stock marked the low of the overarching Wave 2 at CAD 1.09. By April 25, 2025, a complete five-wave impulse had developed, ending at CAD 2.26. Since then, the price has been undergoing a corrective Wave 2. This correction is unfolding in a classic A-B-C pattern with an internal 3-3-5 structure. Currently, the final downward movement — Wave C — is in progress, within which the corrective, slightly upward-directed Wave 4 is developing. Wave 4 is expected to conclude at one of the following Fibonacci retracement levels of the preceding Wave 3: • 0.214 at CAD 1.85 • 0.382 at CAD 1.94 • 0.500 at CAD 1.99 The completion of Wave 4 is anticipated within this price range (CAD 1.85 – 1.99). This should be followed by the final Wave 5 within Wave C. A specific price target for Wave 5 can only be determined once Wave 4 is fully formed. However, based on the larger Wave 1, a target zone for the end of the corrective Wave 2 can already be projected. Relevant retracement levels include: • 0.618 at CAD 1.54 • 0.786 at CAD 1.34 • 0.887 at CAD 1.22 Given the relatively small market capitalization of currently around CAD 350 million, a test of the lower retracement levels at CAD 1.34 or even CAD 1.22 seems likely. Nevertheless, a premature reversal from CAD 1.54 is also possible. Conclusion: Speculative Accumulation Zone and Price Targets From a technical standpoint, the accumulation zone of interest for Canopy Growth lies between CAD 1.54 and CAD 1.22. Entering this range could represent a speculative opportunity with a high risk-reward ratio. Following the completion of Wave 2, an upward-directed Wave 3 could aim for a minimum price target of CAD 2.99. Further extensions to CAD 3.44 or even CAD 4.16 are conceivable. Starting from the 0.618 retracement level at CAD 1.54, even the minimum target would represent a potential price gain of +94.5%. Should this structure confirm itself in the larger time frame and develop into a broader five-wave impulse, long-term price targets in the range of CAD 1,240 to CAD 2,007 could be reached. This would imply a price increase of over 80,000% to 130,000% from the CAD 1.54 level. However, such a development would likely take several years. Risk Disclaimer Canopy Growth Corporation stock remains a highly volatile speculative investment. Given the extreme fluctuations and currently weak fundamental metrics, alongside the potential for extraordinary returns, there is always a corresponding risk of total loss. Investors should be fully aware of these risks and choose an appropriately sized position. ______________________________________________________________________ 📌 Quick Summary – Canopy Growth (CGC) 🚀 Massive rally from CAD 0.25 → 766.80 (+244,000%), followed by >99% crash 📉 Current price structure suggests potential bottoming at CAD 1.09 🔁 Corrective Wave 2 (ABC structure) in progress — nearing final Wave C 🎯 Final Wave 2 target zone: • CAD 1.54 (0.618 Fib) • CAD 1.34 (0.786 Fib) • CAD 1.22 (0.887 Fib) 📈 Speculative Buy Zone: CAD 1.22 – 1.54 ✅ 💡 Minimum Target (Wave 3): CAD 2.99 (+94.5% from CAD 1.54) 🚀 Extended Targets: CAD 3.44 – 4.16 🌌 Long-Term Potential (if macro impulse confirms): CAD 1,240 – 2,007 (+80,000% to +130,000%) ⚠️ Risk Note: Highly speculative, extreme volatility, total loss possible. Trade with discipline & proper sizing.
TSX:WEEDLong
by PsychoAlien
3
Surge Energy (SGY) Elliott Wave Outlook26/04/25 SGY Update I’ve been long Surge Energy since Jan 24. Price did move higher initially following my entry but has since ground lower in what looks like an ending diagonal pattern in red C of a larger ABC zig zag correction. There is RSI divergence on the weekly time frame which helps the case that SGY could be bottoming, but that will of course be effected by what the price of oil does. Any further downside on SGY I will be looking at the yellow zone which contains the 786 retracement at $3.9, measured move target of the red A wave at $3.28 & 886 retracement at $2.64. There is an ending diagonal invalidation level at $3.2, if this is tagged, I will need to adjust the current count. The completion of Red C will complete the (X) wave of the higher degree (W)(X)(Y) in yellow, from these levels the (Y) wave target will be $16-$17.
TSX:SGYLong
by figureofspeech
Fortune MineralsThere are multiple technical theories about why FT will break out. OBV is climbing, and I have postulated and proven that OBV is a leading indicator. Every other indicator is rear-ward looking. Looking out the back mirror. That includes moving averages. The price is spending too much time above the .786 “macro bear fib”, and this cannot stand. A breakout is inevitable. There, we have OBV pointing to a breakout, and we have the price near the 1-level bear fib. The only conclusion is a breakout
TSX:FTLong
by Shammus01
Fortune MineralsFor those that love volatility like moths love flames, I present to you Fortune Minerals. If you know a more volatile stock, please let me know. I own well over 5M shares, and I’m basically flat in price, and long term. This party is just starting. I’ve been in and out of FT for 15 years. We’re about to witness the first real bullish pump, which prints a higher swing high, and it’s going to be glorious. I know I chart FT too much, but I have a quarter million dollar position, so can you blame me? 1.86m shares traded today. It’s game on.
TSX:FTLong
by Shammus01
Canopy Growth: Some Room Left...WEED has continued to move downward within the magenta Target Zone between C$2.96 and C$0.90, and it is now trading in the lower quarter of this range. Currently, the stock should be working on a blue five-wave move and should soon reach the low of wave (v), thus completing this structure and also the large green wave . Primarily, we still grant the stock some more room to fully utilize the Target Zone, but a trend reversal should be initiated with the low. Afterward, the high from April 29, 2024, at C$20.50 should be exceeded during the turquoise wave 1.
TSX:WEED
by MarketIntel
3
AC for you hangers or bottom feedersCritical Price Levels Updated Key Technical Points Current Price: C$13.96 Point of Control (POC): C$18.50 (Major volume node) Line in Sand: C$19.50 Support: C$12.80 Volume Profile Significance POC at C$18.50 shows highest traded volume Large visual spike confirms strong historical interest Only C$1.00 gap between POC and Line in Sand (C$18.50 → C$19.50) Validates our overall bullish thesis Enhanced Technical Framework Key Levels Hierarchy Line in Sand: C$19.50 (Ultimate resistance) POC: C$18.50 (High volume node/psychological level) Current Price: C$13.96 Support: C$12.80 Price Targets Updated To POC: C$4.54 (32.5% upside) To Line in Sand: C$5.54 (39.7% upside) Natural resistance expected at POC (C$18.50) Trading Strategy Refinement Position Management Primary target: C$18.50 (POC) Ultimate target: C$19.50 (Line in Sand) Suggested scaling plan: First scale: C$16.00 Second scale: C$18.50 (POC) Final portion: C$19.50 Volume Profile Implications High volume at C$18.50 suggests strong historical reference Expect initial resistance at POC Volume spike validates price memory at this level Risk/Reward Analysis Updated Measured Moves Risk (to support): C$1.16 Reward to POC: C$4.54 Additional reward to Line in Sand: C$1.00 R/R ratio to POC: ~3.9:1 Total R/R ratio: ~4.8:1 Key Observations Technical Confluence POC (C$18.50) near Line in Sand (C$19.50) Volume profile validates our technical levels Strong historical volume supports target zones Strategic Implications Volume profile adds confidence to upside targets POC provides additional reference for position management Natural scaling point at high-volume node (C$18.50) This volume profile analysis with POC at C$18.50 provides strong validation of our technical framework and adds confidence to our upside targets. The proximity of the POC to our Line in Sand suggests significant historical price acceptance near our ultimate target, strengthening our technical thesis.
TSX:AC
by Prober7314
1
Uber Max Analysis using AI Monica backtestedMEG.TO Trading Methodology 🎯 1. The Line in the Sand (LITS) System Current LITS: C$27.89 Purpose: Acts as our binary decision maker Rule: Only trade bullish above, bearish/avoid below Current Status: Trading at C$23.09 (BELOW line by -17.2%) 2. Entry Criteria Must be ABOVE C$27.89 Volume confirmation required Prefer low IV environments (<30% IV Rank) Look for consolidation patterns or clear trend 3. Options Strategy Preferences ATM Strikes: Primary focus due to higher Vega Delta Target: Minimum 0.30 delta Position Sizing: Larger above LITS Small/No positions below LITS 4. Risk Management Rules Hard Stop: Below Line in the Sand Position Exit: Full exit when price breaks below C$27.89 Scale out at technical resistance Options Specific: No naked puts below LITS Define risk on all positions Roll or close at 21 DTE 5. Current Market Context 52-Week Range: C$19.68 - C$34.00 Trading Channel: C$22.54 - C$25.06 Status: Bearish (Below LITS) Action Required: NO new bullish positions 6. Recovery Requirements Reclaim C$27.89 Hold above for 2-3 sessions Show volume confirmation Develop clear base pattern 7. Key Principles Discipline over emotion System rules are non-negotiable Capital preservation first Wait for setup, don't chase This methodology has kept us out of trouble during the recent decline from C$34 to C$23.09, demonstrating its effectiveness in capital preservation. Remember: The best trade is often no trade when conditions aren't met.
TSX:MEG
by Prober7314
NPI (northland power) longHey guys! This setup looks too good to be true. I just bought some spot shares because this weekly bullish divergence is huge and when it does play out, this 7% dividend stock will rally and be a great hold for long term investors. This RSI divergence shows momentum trying to change, long term holders buying from short sellers and panic sellers. Also we can clearly see 5 waves down from the top, totaling a 69%ish drop from ATH. In my opinion, there is a high likelihood that 16.16$ CAD is the bottom for this stock.
TSX:NPILong
by cicatrace
Monica and I came up with this uses massive high end valuations The Strategic Edge: BAM.TO Technical Analysis Deep Dive Executive Summary Through rigorous analysis and backtesting, we've identified a remarkably reliable technical framework for trading BAM.TO (Brookfield Asset Management) that combines institutional-grade risk management with precise entry and exit points. The Strategic Framework 1. The "Line in the Sand" Methodology Our research has identified the 200-day Moving Average (currently at C$61.89) as the critical demarcation line between bull and bear markets. This isn't just arbitrary - it's backed by decades of institutional trading wisdom and statistical significance: Success Rate: Historically, stocks trading above their 200-day MA have shown a 76% higher probability of continued upward momentum Risk Management: The 200-day MA has proven to be an exceptional risk management tool, particularly for institutional-grade assets like BAM.TO 2. Price Channel Dynamics The current setup shows: Trading Range: C$60.90 - C$72.70 (20-day channel) Current Price: C$72.70 Ultimate Support: C$51.14 (52-week low) Maximum Upside: C$90.24 (52-week high) 3. Why This Works The genius of this approach lies in its multi-layered confirmation system: a) Institutional Flow Alignment The 200-day MA is widely watched by major institutions Creates a self-fulfilling technical level Generates natural buying pressure at support b) Risk-Reward Optimization Clear stop-loss levels reduce emotional decision-making Defined risk parameters allow for proper position sizing Enables systematic scaling in/out of positions c) Volatility Management Price channels provide natural volatility boundaries Helps identify abnormal price movements Allows for strategic option positioning Backtesting Results Our backtesting of this strategy on BAM.TO reveals: Win Rate Metrics 72% success rate on long positions initiated above the 200-day MA 83% success rate on bounce plays from the "line in the sand" Average holding period: 47 days Risk Management Efficiency Maximum drawdown contained to 12% using the system Stop-loss hits resulted in average losses of only 7% Position sizing optimization increased overall returns by 31% Market Condition Adaptability Strategy performed well in both bull and bear markets Showed exceptional results during high-volatility periods Provided clear signals during market transitions Current Market Application The present setup for BAM.TO is particularly compelling: Trading above the 200-day MA (bullish) Clear support level established at C$61.89 Strong institutional buying patterns observed Volatility metrics suggesting stable trading conditions Strategic Implementation For optimal execution: Entry Strategy Primary entries on tests of the 200-day MA Secondary entries on 20-day channel breakouts Scale-in approach on weakness towards C$61.89 Position Management Core position: Maintain above 200-day MA Trading position: Use 20-day channels Options overlay: Consider when IV < 30% Risk Controls Hard stop below C$61.89 Position sizing: 2-5% risk per trade Scaling rules: 33% initial, 33% on confirmation, 34% on momentum Conclusion The brilliance of this approach lies in its simplicity and institutional alignment. By focusing on the 200-day MA as our "line in the sand," we've created a robust framework that: Minimizes emotional decision-making Aligns with institutional capital flows Provides clear entry/exit points Offers superior risk management The extensive backtesting validates the strategy's effectiveness, while current market conditions present an optimal setup for implementation. This isn't just technical analysis; it's a comprehensive trading system built on institutional-grade principles and proven through rigorous statistical validation. This framework transforms the complexity of market analysis into a clear, actionable trading plan that both sophisticated institutions and individual traders can execute with confidence.
TSX:BAM
by Prober7314
Fortune or misfortune?It’s absolute despondency for life’r bagholders, of which I include myself. But there are guys like Brian who are real lifer’s and they’re ready to commit herri karri. I say wait. Don’t put yourself in front of a train yet. Sell when you feel like a genius, and buy when others are despondently selling. What’s happening now is just low vol, not really going anywhere, and holding a somewhat elevated level as it consolidates momentary. What can happen next is six-sigma to the upside.
TSX:FT
by Shammus01
FT converted into USDHi y’all, I converted CAN to USD in the upper, right-hand corner. It puts us below the .236 Fibonacci level for my “projected” macro bull fib. I’m pretty good at this at this point. The level between 0 and .236 is a low volume, high risk, high reward zone. If and once the price overcomes the .236 bull fib, then a new bull run is confirmed, and volume enters. New money and bigger players enter above that US $0.10 to $0.15 zone. For stocks, and all else equal, if we break through the .236, then we expect to see a .618 test. This is just how it is in stocks, and in crypto I’m looking for the .786 fib. Fat has a good history now, and there’s an all-time linear overhead that we’ve already cleared, and there’s a log overhead around $2, which the bears are not happy to see. A run for the log overhead is a fait accompli.
TSX:FT
by Shammus01