Porsche (PAH3): German Auto Industry under pressureLooking at Porsche on the monthly chart, we’re analysing its entire price history since becoming a publicly listed company in April 2001. After a massive rally to its peak at €160, the stock experienced a sharp decline back to its IPO levels. Since then, it has traded within a well-defined range between €94 (range high) and €35 (range low), with the mid-range around €65.
Each time the range low was reached, the price subsequently moved back toward the range high, demonstrating the typical characteristics of a range-bound market. Now that Porsche is back at the range low, coupled with the RSI at its second-lowest level ever, we see this as a strong opportunity to gain some exposure to the German automotive market.
Admittedly, the German auto industry is under pressure, with Porsche's deliveries to China down 29% year-over-year. Chinese EVs are currently outpacing German luxury cars in technology, making it difficult for Porsche to regain market share. However, this level represents one of the best opportunities for a swing trade.
If the range low is broken and prices drop to COVID-era levels, Porsche would face significant challenges, requiring major developments to recover. For now, we expect a move back toward the range high over time. While this is a long-term play given the monthly timeframe, it offers a promising swing trade setup.
Key Levels:
Range Low: €35
Mid-Range: €65
Hannover Rück / HNR1 / Symmetry and SeasonalityI am looking at that Chart again because i bought this stock on 14.10.2024.
Not the best trade so far, - but since this company give good dividents and can in my View seen as a value investment I dont give too much about the short term result and I am not worried.
On the chart I drew an arrow for the first strong move and copied tat arrow to start again from the low of the correction we are in right now. A 2nd dotted arrow I drew from the same starting point of observation to the highest point in the correction and again copied that arrow to project a price target for a potential next upmove.
Together with some fibonacci / percentages I marked a target area....
Seasonality analysis suggests that this move should come soon and then could (like the first strong upmove) reach a somewhat 10% gain for me (entered at 260 euro per share).
Maybe this makes sense for you ? Leave a comment and/or like.
Hope it helps to find a profitable entry in a good trade...
Cheers!
BMW - a possible end for this horrifying trend?I was a huge fan of the stock long time age because it was for me an extremely underrated stock which was very cheap compared to the earnings and I liked the fact that BMW could constantly increase their earnings each quarter a lot. I sold long time ago because it had to make a retracement for a new buying opportunity. And I personally think we are very close to a new entry of a long trend for the stock with a new ATH. Its because the stock does not really show signs for further retracements, because its slowly moving aside the same level between 75 -80 Euros since several weeks which shows theres not much downwards force anymore meaning sellers. Therefore the stock is very cheap valued again and from the chart it looks very good. In general I see a short trend incoming for American stocks and a long trend for European stocks.
Auto1: buying high and selling higher opportunityAuto1 is currently in a bullish trend, making it an attractive opportunity for momentum traders. The price action suggests a 'buy high, sell higher' scenario, where the stock's upward momentum could continue to deliver gains. Traders may consider entering now to capitalize on this trend, as the stock seems poised to reach new highs in the short to medium term. However, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels will be crucial to managing risk effectively
FreseniusGood monthly setup for Fresenius. Broke up descending channel, then confirmed. Now we have beautiful monthly candle giving probabilities for an upside move (hopefully above 34.60). The 3 years distance from MA shows almost the same (broke up, retest, now moving).
Very clear Fibonacci resistances around 41-44. It seems to me a good defensive play for long term. It pays nice dividend as well.
Always do your own research!
Adidias - more downside awaiting (?)I chose to present the chart as log scale to show more clearly the sub-waves of the white impulse count. Without that the impulsive structure of the waves wouldn´t be easy to see.
My main scenario is that Adidas will become cheaper in the foreseeable future as market price broke the structure indicated by going below the white "IV".
Also, the current uptrend on the weekly doesn´t look bullish at all as it is lacking impulsive price behaviour.
The indicators also suggest that the stock topped a while ago and we can see a bearish cross on the MACD and different kinds of divergences on the RSI.
My alternative suggests that the wave V is not finished. (light blue count) However, I do not like the deep retracement for the wave 4 in that case and that is why it only my alternative.
[PAH] Porsche Holding SE | 2025 Update - Entry rejectedHello,
quick update on the potential reversal trade for :
Assuming that the fundamentals were checked and the Idea was to be contrarian to the overall negative sentiment towards Porsche Holding SE:
***Info to the video and the comment on the Euro-Dollar :
First thing coming to mind is that, Porsche 'would profit' as an exporteur from a declining Euro.
However, Porsche Holding SE as a german car manufacturer is affected from the same negative fundamentals (i.e. difficult success to energy, inflation of raw materials, rekt consumer...) that are leading to a certain decline of its native currency.
More on that in my idea.
FRE Mean Reversion ShortRally has moved to range-bound market on weekly chart since September 24. RSI near 70 on the daily, and although MACD looks slightly bullish, volume behind this latest move towards the upper channel line doesn't seem strong enough.
Short position near channel line with a tight stop (c. 1.0x ATR). Target is lower channel line, and if breakout to the lower side succeeds, until the next strong support at 30.7
Bayer stock : Contrarian storyBayer stock might be considered a contrarian investment:
Legal overhang from Monsanto acquisition: The ongoing litigation related to the Roundup herbicide has created significant uncertainty and negatively impacted Bayer's stock price. A contrarian investor might see this as an overreaction and believe the company's long-term value will prevail.
Undervalued compared to peers: Some analysts believe Bayer is undervalued compared to its competitors in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries. This could present an opportunity for contrarian investors who believe the market has overcorrected.
Potential for turnaround: Bayer has faced challenges in recent years, but the company is taking steps to address its issues, including restructuring and focusing on innovation. A contrarian investor might bet on the success of these efforts and a future rebound in the stock price.
Risks to consider:
Uncertainty about the outcome of the Roundup litigation: The potential financial impact of ongoing and future lawsuits remains a significant risk for Bayer.
Challenges in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries: Bayer faces competition and other challenges in its core business segments.
Execution risk: There's no guarantee that Bayer's restructuring and innovation efforts will be successful.
SAPSAP - Monthly from the beginning year 94 - Strong uptrend since '22.
A few companies determine the performance of the German DAX. One of these "tanks" is SAP. The chart seems to be on its way to 310.80 EUR per share, a Fibonacci-Extension in green. This level represents the end of Cycle wave III in green. After that the chart should form in three waves a 23.6-% correction in total as a flat.
In the chart you see the volume which is decreasing over a long time period. So the actually reached higher highs are formed with lower and lower volume.
Furthermore, the MACD is mentioned. This index forms typical negative values within a wave 2 which is an ABC-correction of the direction of the trend wave.
Its extreme value reaches the MACD always in the C-wave of the ABC-correction. Look in the chart, please. There are two results.
RHM is a few steaps ahead of TKARHM is already a couple steps ahead its little brother TKA, we have the same structural buildup with the only difference being that RHM already turned inside the correction zone and continued its way downward, activating the orange structure. GG to everyone who listened to my call & prediction last year.
DTE DT. TELEKOMDT. TELEKOM AG - 1h
After eliminating its first serious retracement at 30,64 EUR, the chart shows a correction as expected. There is a chance of closing the gaps on downside mentioned in red before rallying again.
Next retracement on the upper side will be at 44,82 EUR. If the chart forms higher highs again, I expect 54,68 EUR.
The DAX will then reach 24500 points.
Bayer AG Analysis: Growth Potential and Positive Buying SentimenThe history of Bayer AG shares goes through many key moments and events:
Foundation and early years: Bayer was founded in 1863 by Friedrich Bayer and Johann Wagner in Germany. The company initially dealt with the production of chemicals and textile dyes.
Development of aspirin: In 1897, Bayer synthesized aspirin, which became one of the most recognizable drugs in the world. This is considered one of the key moments that established the profile of the company.
World War I: During World War I, most of Bayer's assets were confiscated by the Allies, and the company was forced to reorganize.
World War II and post-war period: Bayer, like many German companies, went through significant changes after World War II. A few years later, Bayer joined the newly formed chemical group "Fritz Haber" and focused on innovation.
Diversification and Growth: In the 1970s and 1980s, the company began to diversify into areas such as pharmaceuticals, agronomy, and biotechnology.
Acquisitions and New Products: Bayer AG acquired companies that strengthened its portfolio, including Monsanto in 2018, which provided significant advances in agronomy.
Recent Challenges: In recent years, the company has faced legal challenges and disputes related to its products, particularly glyphosate, the active ingredient in Roundup.
Key Points
Oakmark International fund manager David Herro sees growth potential for Bayer.
The company's agricultural cycle is showing signs of bottoming out.
Bayer AG operates in three main segments: Crop Science, Pharmaceuticals, and Consumer Health.
The Crop Science segment focuses on sustainable agriculture through seeds and crop protection.
The Pharmaceuticals segment offers prescription products, particularly in the areas of cardiology and women's health.
The Consumer Health segment includes nonsteroidal dermatology products and health supplements.
Porsche is a hot topic for investors in 2025Porsche is a hot topic for investors in 2025, trading near historic lows. Barclays recently upgraded the stock to Overweight with a price target of €70, saying the current price could represent a good opportunity for long-term investors. Despite a 15% decline in the past month, earnings growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 remain above 10% per year, despite doubts about volume and margin targets.
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Key risks include the company’s reliance on the U.S. and Chinese markets, as well as the impact of tariffs. However, the positive outlook for electric vehicles and Porsche’s luxury segment is keeping the stock attractive.