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Mercedes-Benz group AG- An opportunity to buy/Average down.Hello, Today we will be looking at a buy opportunity from Mercedes solely using the tools available on Tradingview. Mercedes-Benz Group AG engages in the business of manufacturing and distributing premium cars. It operates through the following segments: Mercedes-Benz Cars, Mercedes-Benz Vans, and Mercedes-Benz Mobility. The Mercedes-Benz Cars segment includes the brands Mercedes-AMG, Mercedes-Maybach, and Mercedes-EQ. All this is found in overview section www.tradingview.com TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- Checklist Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data) Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- The stock has corrected and is at the bottom of a flat pattern Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- The indicator is confirming purchase. Zero crossover on MACD soon. (MACD) is a technical indicator to help investors identify entry points for buying or selling Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- Future wave as shown Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price EUR 76 (A good stock to buy/average down) Key highlights from the Mercedes-Benz Group's Q3 2024 interim report Revenue: €34.5 billion in Q3 2024, a 7% decrease compared to Q3 2023. For the first nine months, revenue totalled €107.14 billion, down by 5%. Net Profit: €1.7 billion in Q3, down by 54%, and €7.7 billion over nine months, a 31% reduction. Mercedes-Benz Cars: Unit sales were down by 1% to 503,600 vehicles in Q3. Electrified vehicle sales fell by 15%, and BEV sales dropped by 31%. Mercedes-Benz Vans: Sales declined by 13% to 91,100 units in Q3. Electrified van sales also decreased by 31%. Mercedes-Benz Mobility: New financing and leasing contracts fell by 14% compared to Q3 2023 R&D expenditure increased by 13% to €2.9 billion in Q3, with a focus on digitalization and electrification Company highlights can be found on the statements section or the news flow section www.tradingview.com Next earnings report date: February 13, 2025 (Q4 report 2024) The next earnings date can be found for each company www.tradingview.com Opportunities Mercedes-Benz is a globally recognized and respected brand in premium and luxury automobiles, giving it some resilience against fluctuations in car sales. The company’s strong focus on research and development, especially in electric powertrains, positions it well for growth as clean-air regulations continue to tighten worldwide. Management’s long-term goals for return on sales indicate that there is opportunity for further growth, suggesting potential upside to valuation. Risks to consider The global premium car market is highly competitive, and consumers have many choices, making it easy for them to switch between brands. The auto industry faces increasing global overcapacity, leading to pricing pressure. Given its capital-intensive nature, achieving strong economic returns over a 10-year period remains challenging. While Mercedes has maintained good union relations with its German workforce, union influence is substantial, with employees electing half of the supervisory board members. This strong union presence can limit profit margins due to wage demands during prosperous times and work rules that reduce flexibility in manufacturing. Our recommendation Since November 2021, Mercedes-Benz stock has traded in a sideways range between EUR 52 and EUR 76. Despite this, the company remains a globally recognized premium and luxury brand. This positioning continues to provide resilience against high sales fluctuations, making it a standout in the competitive global luxury car market. Mercedes-Benz Cars continue to face weaker macroeconomic conditions and fierce competition, mainly in Asia. The company is actively undertaking a share buyback. In Q4 2024 the Mercedes-Benz Group opened Europe’s first battery recycling factory in Kuppenheim, southern Germany. Valuable, limited raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can be recovered and are to be used to manufacture new battery cells for Mercedes-Benz vehicles. This buyback, along with the company’s strong positioning and stock’s trading range, presents a potential buying opportunity with a target price of EUR 76 despite the weak Q3 results. Our recommendation is buy/Average down. Mercedes-Benz’s commitment to research and development, particularly in electric powertrains, positions it advantageously for growth amid tightening clean-air regulations worldwide. Goodluck & all the best.
XETR:MBGLong
by thesharkke
9
Flatexdegiro AG: A Leading European Online BrokerOverview FlatexDEGIRO AG, a European online brokerage leader, stands out for its scalable business model and significant market potential. With over 2.8 million customers, FlatexDEGIRO is one of the largest online brokers in Europe. This report outlines the potential investment upside, the reasons for past stock declines, the unique aspects of its business model, and future growth prospects. The stock offers an opportunity to achieve 3x to 5x returns over the next three to five years. Investment Thesis 1. Scalable Business Model: FlatexDEGIRO’s online brokerage platform benefits significantly from economies of scale. Expanding customer numbers has a limited impact on the platform's operational costs while significantly enhancing profitability. This scalability, combined with rising trading activity, positions the company for substantial bottom-line growth. With appropriate operational improvements, FlatexDEGIRO can leverage its customer base more effectively. 2. Market Consolidation in European Brokerage: The European brokerage market is consolidating, with smaller players being acquired or exiting due to rising regulatory costs and competitive pressure. This environment allows larger players like FlatexDEGIRO to acquire market share cost-effectively. This consolidation could reduce competition, giving dominant players a stronger hold over pricing, customer engagement, and regulatory adaptations. 3. Activist Shareholder Influence: Bernd Förtsch, the founder and major shareholder of FlatexDEGIRO, has recently taken a more active role in reshaping the company's governance, including advocating for changes to the supervisory board and executive management. This activism suggests a potential shift towards more disciplined cost management and a renewed focus on growth. With better management of operational costs, FlatexDEGIRO has room to improve profit margins. 4. Re-engaging Dormant Customers: Approximately 1.3 million of FlatexDEGIRO's 2.8 million customers are relatively inactive in trading. Increasing engagement within this subset through targeted communication and trading ideas could enhance transaction-based revenue without a corresponding increase in marketing expenditure. 5. Minimal Regulatory Exposure in Order Flow: Unlike some peers, FlatexDEGIRO has no dependency on "order flow" revenue (payments for order flow, or PFOF). This reduces regulatory risk since PFOF is under scrutiny by European regulators. As such, FlatexDEGIRO’s revenue stream remains resilient to regulatory shifts, positioning it as a potentially safer choice in a tightening regulatory environment. Risks and Challenges 1. Regulatory Environment: The European financial sector faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, driving up compliance costs. Although larger players like FlatexDEGIRO may benefit from this trend by acquiring smaller firms unable to bear these costs, regulation may still weigh on profitability and limit operational flexibility. 2. Past Operational Inefficiencies: Historical mismanagement, such as high executive compensation packages (e.g., €28 million for the executive board in one year with €72 million in annual profit), has negatively impacted FlatexDEGIRO’s profitability. While these issues may be addressed by the founder’s renewed involvement, any lingering inefficiencies could delay or diminish the expected upside potential. 3. Customer Reactivation Efforts: Although reactivating inactive customers could provide significant upside, there is no guarantee that these customers will respond positively to engagement efforts. The competitive landscape and shifting customer preferences could impact how effectively FlatexDEGIRO reactivates its customer base. Financial Position and Growth Potential • Strong Cash Position and Debt-Free Status: FlatexDEGIRO’s solid balance sheet, with no debt and considerable cash reserves, supports potential investments in marketing, acquisitions, and product improvements without raising additional capital. • Valuation Upside: With disciplined cost management and strategic acquisitions, FlatexDEGIRO is positioned to multiply its revenue and profit. I think the stock has potential for a 3x to 5x increase in value within three to five years, primarily through a combination of market expansion, increased trading activity, and operational efficiency gains. Conclusion FlatexDEGIRO presents a compelling investment opportunity with potential for good returns due to its scalable model, strategic positioning in a consolidating market, and recent shareholder activism. The company’s minimal exposure to regulatory risks associated with order flow payments, coupled with a favorable balance sheet, makes it well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the European online brokerage sector. While regulatory changes and customer engagement efforts pose risks, the company’s upside potential makes it an attractive candidate for investors with a moderate risk tolerance and a long-term view. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
XETR:FTKLong
by marc_kober
Energy Stock Surge? ENI S.P.A Bullish Breakout IncomingENI S.P.A, a leading global oil company, is currently trading at $14.18 , demonstrating strong bullish momentum on the weekly chart. Our proprietary W.ARITAs indicator reveals a significant buildup in bullish momentum, suggesting an imminent breakout from the well-defined inverted head and shoulders pattern . This pattern, widely recognized as a reversal signal, aligns with ENI’s recent strategic moves, including its expansion in Alaska and increased shareholder rewards through a $2 billion share buyback . These developments underscore the company’s robust financial health and its commitment to growth and investor value, which are likely to fuel further stock appreciation. Key Technical Levels: Order Box (OB) Target 1: $18.05 - $19.62 Order Box (OB) Target 2: $23.18 - $24.29 Given the current bullish setup, these targets reflect potential zones for profit-taking, with the first Order Box (OB Target 1) offering a conservative target range and OB Target 2 representing an extended bullish goal. With supportive corporate actions and technical strength, ENI is well-positioned for growth, making it a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure in the energy sector. Keep an eye on the weekly close to confirm the breakout from the inverted head and shoulders pattern for confirmation of further upside potential. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a financial advisor to assess your individual risk tolerance and objectives before making any investment decisions.
GETTEX:ENILong
by insidermike
Volkswagen and the Crisis of the Automotive Industry in EuropeVolkswagen's recent action, with proposals to close up to three factories in Germany and the possible reduction of global wages by 10%, highlights a critical situation in the European automotive industry. Although expected, this measure reflects the challenge the sector is facing due to the passivity and lack of strategic response from European institutions. Volkswagen is taking drastic measures to ensure its profitability and competitiveness in the face of a global crisis in the sector. However, these cuts also expose a larger problem: the lack of supportive policies on the part of the European Union to maintain the competitiveness of its own companies in a challenging global market. Europe's Inaction at a Key Competitiveness Moment European passivity is perceived not only as a lack of response to the automotive sector, but as a reflection of an industrial policy that has lagged behind in a context of accelerating energy change. China, for example, has implemented extensive support programs for its automotive industry, focusing on innovations in electric vehicles and the production of strategic metals, such as rare earths. The energy transition in Europe, on the other hand, has included environmental constraints and penalties that could further harm local companies. Starting January 1, 2025, Europe will impose fines on automakers that fail to meet certain emissions limits, a move that, without an adequate back-up plan, could exacerbate the financial problems of companies such as Volkswagen, Mercedes and Stellantis. While environmental sustainability is paramount, these restrictions could be stifling the industry's ability to respond at a critical time. Urgency of a Rescue and Competitiveness Plan The automotive sector has historically been an economic pillar in Europe, generating employment and contributing significantly to the GDP of several countries in the region. However, without a change in approach that allows for greater competitiveness in a global environment, the industry could suffer irreparable losses. Instead of tariffs or restrictive measures against international competitors, a comprehensive plan is needed to boost the competitiveness of European companies at home and abroad. A first step in this direction could be the removal or relaxation of certain restrictions, such as a ban on internal combustion engines from 2035, allowing a more gradual transition to more sustainable alternatives. It is also crucial to facilitate the exploitation of resources such as rare earths to ensure an adequate supply of key materials in the electric vehicle production chain. Responsibility and Immediate Action by European Leaders The outcry from Volkswagen and other key players in the sector represents an urgent wake-up call to the European institutions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with other leaders, must take immediate action to prevent further deterioration of the automotive industry. It is time to convene an emergency summit, where key players in the sector can discuss and design an effective plan to rescue and support the industry. This plan should include not only investments, but also a clear support policy to maintain jobs and promote innovation. The current scenario of uncertainty and tension in the negotiations between Volkswagen and the unions represents only the tip of the iceberg. If Europe fails to act, this crisis could spread to other economic sectors, generating a chain of negative effects that would seriously affect the European economy as a whole. Technical aspect Volkswagen (Ticker AT: VOW3.GE) has currently been unwinding a cycle closure initiated in 2020. Since March 2021 the company has been consistently losing value, down approximately -65.5%. Since August 6 the company has been moving in a range between €99.26 and its all-time low of €87.50. It is currently located in an area testing the lows and if it manages to sustain the value could move again to the 100 euros area to test possible perforations of the bearish channel. Given the evolution of the automotive company's drift, it will not be unusual to see a continuation of the channel towards lower prices if it pierces the current support. The downward pressure is relatively strong, even though the company is trying to remain in a price zone close to 90 euros per share. The checkpoint is fragmented because in August this year its strong zone was around 120 euros per share and the current POC is above 114 euros. The RSI is slightly oversold at 46.15%. We will have to see the factors related to the company to see if the RSI advances with more downward pressure or on the contrary corrects. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
XETR:VOW3Short
by ActivTrades
Deutsche Bank (DBK): Earnings beat but loan losses double We missed the optimal entry for Deutsche Bank (DBK), but the analysis was accurate overall. The earnings report showed some resilience with a revenue increase of 5.2% year-over-year, reaching €7.50 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of €7.30 billion. The stock reacted with a modest dip, but nothing significant. However, Deutsche Bank reported a notable rise in loan losses, which doubled to €494 million in Q3 2024 compared to €245 million a year ago, aligning closely with the €482 million forecasted by analysts. From a technical standpoint, our primary count still appears valid, though it’s a bit on the lower side. This could indicate that wave 3 might not be the longest wave in this count, which is atypical but possible as long as it’s not the shortest. We’re targeting a potential endpoint for wave 5 within the HTF resistance zone, aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci extension level, where we could look for a long position if the setup confirms. We will continue to monitor DBK closely as this potential target level nears and adjust accordingly.
XETR:DBK
by freeguy_by_wmc
TUI stock can be considered contrarian Recent Performance: TUI's share price has been volatile, especially due to the COVID-19 pandemic. While the stock has recovered somewhat, it still hasn't reached its pre-pandemic levels. This underperformance relative to the broader market can make it a contrarian pick. Industry Sentiment: The travel and tourism industry, which TUI is a major player in, has faced significant challenges in recent years. Negative sentiment surrounding the industry can lead to a pessimistic outlook on TUI stock, making it a contrarian choice for investors who believe in the long-term recovery of the sector.   Valuation: Some analysts argue that TUI's current valuation may be undervalued, especially considering its strong brand, diversified business model, and potential for growth. If the market sentiment towards the company improves, the stock price could rise significantly. Potential for Recovery: As the global economy recovers from the pandemic and travel restrictions ease, TUI is well-positioned to benefit from increased demand for leisure travel. This potential for recovery can make the stock an attractive contrarian investment for those who believe in the long-term prospects of the company.
XETR:TUI1
by StockBlog
BUYS ON BMW ABOVE 82 EUR💡 Today we analyze BMW BMW is a solid company that has shown resilience. Currently, the price is around 74 euros, and a good entry point would be after breaking the downward trendline and key resistance, about 82 euros. It’s important to wait for confirmation of a daily close. 1. Operational strength: BMW remains a leader in the luxury automotive market. 2. Electric expansion: Strong investment in electric and autonomous vehicles. 3. Technical opportunity: Breaking resistance could signal a potential recovery. 4. Risks: Inflation and consumer demand may affect future sales. This analysis is not an investment recommendation.
XETR:BMWLong
by AnalisisDeBolsaDiario
BMW (BMW): Navigating Through Uncertainty in the Auto MarketThe German automotive industry is currently facing significant challenges, from rising production costs and the transition to electric vehicles to increased competition from China. Despite these hurdles, we believe that most of the negative factors are already priced into the market. From a technical perspective, we’re zooming out to get a broader view of BMW. Ignoring the COVID-19 dip, BMW has been ranging between 55€ and 113€ for an extended period. We anticipate that this range will continue, as markets tend to range 70% of the time. Right now, BMW is at a critical level, either bottoming out for the fourth time or, more likely, preparing to break below and collect the sell-side liquidity that has accumulated over the past three years. Our plan is simple: We’re monitoring this closely, with alerts set to notify us if the stock dips below this level. Should this occur, we’re looking at a potential entry near 62€. We will update you with our strategy once this scenario unfolds.
XETR:BMWLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotiVolkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol). Rewards Trading at 79.2% below estimate of its fair value Earnings are forecast to grow 6.14% per year Earnings grew by 24.2% over the past year Trading at good value compared to peers and industry Risk Analysis Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow Dividend of 9.77% is not well covered by free cash flows
XETR:VOW3Long
by Maximus20000
Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile)Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol). Trading at 43.1% below estimate of its fair value Trading at good value compared to peers and industry Risk Analysis Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow Dividend of 7.95% is not well covered by free cash flows
XETR:BMWLong
by Maximus20000