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Tencent: Significant Decline!Tencent's stock took a significant hit, creating a noticeable gap in the chart. Nevertheless, for now, our primary assumption remains that the price is currently working on the turquoise wave 3 and will soon move toward the resistance at HK$715. Afterward, a corrective movement should follow during wave 4. However, if the stock falls below the support at HK$364.80, downward pressure will mount significantly and make it increasingly likely that the price will drop to new lows below the nearest marks at HK$261 and HK$188.60 to develop a new low of the large wave alt. in green (probability: 36%).
HKEX:700
by MarketIntel
Tencent Holdings LtdIs Tencent Stock a Buy Now? Tencent posted its third quarter earnings report on Nov. 16. The Chinese tech giant's revenue fell 2% year over year to 140.1 billion yuan ($19.8 billion), which represented its second consecutive quarter of declining revenue since its IPO in 2004. Its net profit rose 1% to 39.9 billion yuan ($5.6 billion). On an adjusted basis, which excludes its investments and other one-time items, its net profit grew 2% to 32.3 billion yuan ($4.5 billion). Those growth rates seem anemic, but Tencent's stock had already been cut in half over the past two years amid concerns about China's tightening regulations, slowing economic growth, and COVID19 lockdowns. So is it the right time to take the contrarian view and buy Tencent as a turnaround play? Let's review its core businesses and valuations to decide. Tencent generated 31% of its third quarter revenue from its video game business. Domestic games, which include its blockbuster game Honor of Kings, accounted for 73% of that total. The remaining 27% came from overseas hits like League of Legends, Valorant, and PUBG Mobile.Its domestic gaming revenue fell 7% year over year, representing its third consecutive quarter of shrinking revenue, as it grappled with tighter playtime restrictions for minors in China over the past year. Those restrictions also coincided with a temporary suspension on new video game approvals in China, which started last July and ended this April.Its international gaming revenue rose 3% year over year, accelerating from its 1% decline in the second quarter, as new games like Tower of Fantasy and Goddess of Victory: Nikke attracted new players. Unfortunately, its overseas growth still couldn't offset its declining domestic revenue. As a result, Tencent's total VAS (value-added service) revenue which includes its gaming divisions, social media platforms, and streaming media subscriptions -- declined by 3% in the third quarter but still accounted for more than half of its top line. This core business might gradually stabilize as Tencent expands its international gaming business, but it will likely remain under intense pressure as long as the Chinese government continues to scrutinize the gaming industry. 200$ was one of the biggest support and great opportunity to buying the dip. 300-320$ is a big resistance level for tencent and if bulls win that battle then 350$ is next but can we back 250 or even 200$ again? YES
HKEX:700
by moonypto
11
Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01: 9988 (BABA) The price has broken out of a consolidation range that lasted approximately two years, supported by a normal volume distribution. The stock has risen to meet the Fibonacci Extension resistance level of 161.8 at a price of 144 HKD. Currently, it is forming a sideways consolidation pattern on the smaller timeframe, establishing a base structure viewed as re-accumulation. The 6-month target is set at the Fibonacci Extension level of 261.8, which corresponds to a price of 189 HKD. This target aligns with a price cluster based on the valuation from sensitivity analysis, using the forward EPS estimates for 2025-2026 as a key variable for calculations, along with the standard deviation of the price-to-earnings ratio. Wait for the Right Moment to Accumulate Shares within the Consolidation Range Purchase near the support level of the range when the price pulls back. Look for a candlestick reversal pattern as a signal to add to your position. However, should the price break down to the lower consolidation range, the stock would lose its upward momentum, potentially leading to a prolonged period of consolidation or a deeper pullback to around 90 HKD. Always have a plan and prioritize risk management.
HKEX:9988Long
by CoachGoii_SuperTrader
HK2359 Bullish Wave 3In the second half of 2024, the stock accumulated energy and cooperated with the policy to make a beautiful rise, and then fell back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line and fluctuated repeatedly. I believe the next wave of rise is coming! I will buy intraday, the yellow line is the support level, about 51.1 (this is a relatively safe entry price), and the first target profit stop level is 72.45 (Fibonacci retracement line 1.000) I am very optimistic about this stock. When there is a decline, I will give priority to replenishing positions at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement line instead of leaving the market quickly
HKEX:2359Long
by Nirksan
Modern Dental Presents and Extremely Asymmetric Long opportunityCompany Overview Modern Dental Group, based in Hong Kong, is a global provider of dental prosthetics, including crowns, bridges, implants, and dentures. They also offer orthodontic devices, sports guards, and dental equipment. The company operates in over 23 countries with 80+ service centers. It has expanded through acquisitions, including in Thailand and Vietnam, and launched the QJ Smile clear aligner brand in China. Modern Dental Group is publicly traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under ticker 3600.HK. The Fundamental Case The Fundamental case stems from a strong belief that we are going into a period of a structural weakening USD vs almost all global major currencies. Their business model is extremely leveraged to a weakening USD. Take Europe for example. Modern Dental has performed extremely well in Europe with Revenues having grown 40% in the past two years and now accounting for almost 50% of global revenues. An increase of the EURUSD exchange rate to 1.15, along side the expected growth rate would result in probably what would be a 20% increase in revenue from current levels while costs may only increase 10%. For the year 2025, the company could be potentially have the following metrics if the Euro appreciates to 1.15: My 2025 Projections Revenue: 4.1 Billion HKD Net Profit 520 million HKD EPS: 56 cents Free Cash Flow: ~600 million HKD This would put the P/E Ratio at just 7 and the Free Cash Flow Yield at 16% Remember, are are not just talking about how cheap the company is, but the fact that it is a growing revenue in a structurally growing industry with a currency tailwind. Furthermore, they are almost Net debt neutral. This, in my view, rules out the possibility it could be a value trap. The Trade. Id like to go Long at the Current price of $3.95, with a target of $6.00 (50% upside) within the next 12 months. I'd stop out of this trade if the Euro get back under 1.05 or if the price of the share gets under HKD 3.5. With a HKD 2 upside vs a HKD 50 cents downside the risk/reward is 4:1. Thanks, Kavi
HKEX:3600Long
by kavijh
I'm starting to ask— is it dumb not to own Prada?This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Prada — here’s a luxury story that’s outperformed peers in recent times — sales up +17% in 2024 — Miu Miu drove sales a remarkable +25% (+93% in Q4 alone!). It’s been a long, funny life as a publicly listed company for Prada — they listed on the Hong Kong exchange in 2011 and the stock surged, and then sat flat for ages, going sideways. There was a lot of doubt if the Italian family-controlled fashion house could grow — it’s a lot smaller than LVMH, Kering etc, and there’s a lot of focus on only a small clutch of brands (plus, the company had a disastrous foray into buying Helmut Lang and Jil Sander). And yet — here we are — in a year of recession for most of luxury, Prada, like Hermes and Brunello, has shined. Not least thanks to growing Gen Z demand of Miu Miu — I keep saying this, but it’s not enough to only sell to your 1% old-timers — you need to sell to the market with growing wealth. Gen Z, baby. 27x earnings — down 6.00% today. I avoided this stock for a while — maybe to my detriment? But now I am starting to ask— is it dumb not to own Prada? Consider also the rumored +US$1.5 billion bid for Versace, Prada’s fellow Italian competitor. Capri Holdings owns it now — they haven’t grown revenue. I had to pause with the idea of chic, intellectual Prada buying Versace — brash, bold, a little tacky. Yet if anyone can make it work, it’s Prada… Kering — I know I have been harping on about this one for a while ‘cos the Gucci and Saint Laurent owner is trading well under five year lows, but this little tidbit from Lauren Sherman’s excellent newsletter, Line Sheet (at Puck) — some validation! I was told by one trusted industry source to buy Kering stock because it’s going to be a sure-bet designer—such as Hedi Slimane—but others keep pointing to lesser-known, yet still formidable candidates. Dario Vitale keeps coming up, despite his conversations with Versace. One thing to remember is that no Gucci designer has ever been a name before they started at Gucci, so a known entity would be a departure from that. Anyway, as my partner Bill Cohan likes to say, this is not investment advice. Not investment advice, but you know — buy ‘em down and dirty, and ride ‘em high…I always remember how Walter Schloss was prone to look at companies trading at five year lows. That’s Kering for you…
HKEX:1913
by BlackBull_Markets
BYD - What next post-earnings and the BoC's stimulus?HKEX:1211 has had a strong year in growth prospects, reporting solid earnings growth thanks to its robust EV sales and expanding footprint in international markets. The recent earnings beat highlighted an impressive increase in revenue, driven by the demand for both their electric and hybrid vehicles. But what we can notice is that the stock has only reflected this as a c.16% rise in price YTD. However, the question now is: where does BYD go from here? - More recently, the BoC's latest stimulus measures, including rate cuts and support for the real estate sector, could indirectly benefit BYD. With increased liquidity and consumer confidence, domestic demand for EV's could rise, especially if coupled with additional green energy incentives. - As for the earnings release, the markets reacted well, and with this new-found optimism in the markets, with both the SEE Composite Index SSE:000001 and the Hang Seng Index TVC:HSI up 5.78% and 9.28% in the past 5 days, is this the turn-around for China as a whole?
HKEX:1211Long
by FytaLO
1
Sunac China Holdings: A Distressed Developer’s Road to RecoveryThe Chinese real estate market has been in turmoil, with developers facing liquidity crises and mounting debt. Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918.HK), once a dominant player, has struggled to regain stability following severe financial distress. After defaulting on its offshore debt in 2022, Sunac embarked on an extensive restructuring process to avoid collapse. Financial Troubles and Restructuring Efforts In 2023, Sunac successfully completed a $9 billion offshore debt restructuring, converting part of its obligations into long-term bonds and equity. The restructuring reduced immediate repayment pressures but did not eliminate financial risks. By the end of 2024, Sunac’s total assets stood at approximately RMB 880 billion ($123 billion), while total liabilities remained elevated at RMB 972 billion ($136 billion). Sales performance has been weak, reflecting the broader industry downturn. Sunac’s contracted sales for 2024 reached RMB 104 billion ($14.5 billion), down from RMB 523 billion ($73 billion) in 2021, highlighting the impact of regulatory crackdowns and reduced consumer demand. However, its cash balance improved slightly to RMB 38 billion ($5.3 billion), aided by asset disposals and government easing measures. Market Conditions and Government Support China’s property sector remains fragile, but recent government policies offer some support. Mortgage rates have been lowered, and restrictions on home purchases in key cities have eased, which could provide a demand boost. Sunac, with its extensive portfolio, stands to benefit from these policy adjustments, though recovery will be gradual. Stock Performance and Investment Risks Sunac’s stock has been highly volatile. Trading at HKD 1.80 in early 2025, it remains far below its peak of HKD 42 in 2020. Despite restructuring, Sunac’s high debt burden and ongoing project delays pose significant risks to investors. Credit rating agencies still classify Sunac’s bonds as distressed, with yields reflecting continued default concerns. Investment Outlook For high-risk investors, Sunac presents a speculative opportunity. If China’s property sector stabilizes and Sunac can improve sales, there is upside potential. However, liquidity risks remain high, and its ability to meet long-term obligations is uncertain. Investors should approach with caution, considering the ongoing financial and regulatory challenges.
HKEX:1918
by juliakhandoshko
Is Alibaba still a BUY ?Now, from being ostracised by the Central government to being in the limelight after 3 years, we are now seeing Alibaba returning to stage once again and capturing the hearts of "love and hate" retail investors. Those who had bought it around 200 price level back then would be relieved in some way to see the share price slowly inching back to their purchase price and their paper loss amount reducing. Hope this gives them a good night sleep. There are many school of thoughts in investing and to say that one school is better than the others would be biased and self centred. There are factors like risk tolerance, time frame of investment, capital, knowledge of market, etc. If you are in your mid 50s, would you want to risk say 10K to invest in this stock? Yes, if you believe in its growth story and you have a higher risk appetite and if the price falls back to 80 , you are OK and would not have sleepless night. It is too simplistic to say that people in this age category should invest in dividend stocks - a broad base of market categorisation. However, if you are in your 20s but you are a thrifty little squirrel and have not heard of the stock market, fearful even to do paper trade, then it is wiser not to put even 1k in this growth stock. At less than 2% dividend, you are better off parking your funds in the government bonds. So, to answer a straight YES or NO without considering the background of the investors would be putting the cart before the horse. Everybody situation is different and those who have bought are somewhat biased else they would not have bought it and those who think all China stocks are uninvestable would naturally stay away even this tech giant in China. For me, I am riding on the rally and awaiting for it to pull back to 120-125 price level before accumulating. Please DYODD
HKEX:9988Long
by dchua1969
6