3690 brokeout the short term trendline HKEX:3690
One of the hottest HK stocks 3690 has just broken up the short term trend line with a good momentum.
A buy setup with 1:3 risk to reward ratio is possible. Put the stop loss right below the weekly low which is 293 and tp target will be the previous historical high 338.2
Stay tune for the update:)
MEituan is ready to make another bounce ! Meituan is trading in a triangular squeeze and is ready to bounce from the lower band of the price action. Before a upward breakout, price is likely to reach the previous swing high first, which we use as our TP.
3800 GCI-Poly Energy: Update analysis 30 Nov 2020Following my 3 previous GCI-Poly analysis, I have a the following update:
Today's price shows an extremely extended and bullish candle (0.61 - 0.81), which is a 0.20 price move in a single day and not within same candle sizes as others around it.
Historically, price candles with such bullish price candles of the same size or slightly longer (going back up to Aug 2011):
21 Dec 2017: price from 1.26 - 1.42
09 Jul 2015: price from 1.22 - 1.46
11 Nov 2014: price from 1.80 - 2.10
09 May 2014: price from 1.80 - 2.04
02 Feb 2012: price from 2.62 - 2.79
19 Jan 2012: price from 2.24 - 2.42
29 Nov 2011: price from 1.86 - 2.03
02 Nov 2011: price from 2.03 - 2.32
27 Oct 2011: price from 1.94 - 2.36
23 Aug 2011: price from 2.55 - 2.91
Interestingly, the top of the today's candle (30 Nov 2020) stops at price level 0.80. I also checked historical prices at this level and the resistance levels for today (30 Nov 2020 and the week preceding this candle) and I was able to dig up the following interesting data:
(1.) Long-term daily resistance occurred @ price level 0.80 on the following dates:
16 Sep - 03 Oct 2008
01 Apr - 28 Apr 2009
27 Feb 2019
30 Nov 2020
(2.) Long-term daily support occurred @ price level 0.70 on the following dates:
16 Sep - 03 Oct 2008
26 Mar - 01 Apr 2009
(3.) Long-term daily resistance @ 0.80 becomes resistance support flip on the following dates:
02 - 30 Jun 2017
01 Aug 2017
30 May - 15 June 2018
My conclusion from the above are as follows:
- As today's candle has hit a long-term daily resistance level of 0.80, I expect price retracement to/towards the long-term daily support level of 0.70
- It is also a sound assumption that investors might start taking some profits as we approach December holiday season given the excellent performance of the stock in the last 2-3 months. This will inevitably put pressure on the stock price.
- I will be buying more with the expected and healthy price correction.
Return to long term bullish momentumPAX Global Tech (Ticker: 327) is a HK-based producer of cashless payment hardware similar to Ingenico, while being significantly more undervalued than the latter. long term target for the stock is 10-15 HKD.
Since the huge breakout in Aug the stock followed the exact same pattern 3 times already:
- 2-4 days breakout on higher volume
- backtesting of breakout area
- next leg up along long term trend line
In the next few days, I expect PAX to consolidate at a price level of ~4.7 HKD - in a similar fashion;
Once connected to the long term trend (blue line) I expect a huge leap upwards within 2-5 days and a following consolidation and backtest slightly above previous breakout levels.
The short term target for the 1st week of Nov is in the area around the intraday high in Aug (5.4 HKD), and I'll give it a >50% chance that this will be even exceeded during the run up. So we're looking at a +15-20% gain within 2-3 weeks.
Long term I am bullish on the stock anyway, so every level here is a clear buy. the company sports a PE of ~6 while earning double digit ROICs, having a healthy growth path in emerging markets and started paying increasing dividends and uying back their own shares.
LONG 1579 (Yihai)Expecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
LONG 1610 (Cofco)Expecting bounce from extremely oversold weekly and daily levels. If stop breached, be prepared to catch new daily reversal on lower levels with a tight stop.
Geely's historic bullrun ended by RSI failure swing?HKEX:175
Gelly's bullrun of 53% in 22 trading days was stopped by an engulfing pattern.
The RSI failure swing combined with the second highest MACD in Geely's history indicate a further downward movement.
CRV = 2,67 / Stop Loss above engulfing pattern / Take Profit at 0.382 FIB
To sell or not to sell ?Questions that traders and investors constantly asked themselves - Now that I am in the trade and have made some profits, do I sell now and lock in the profits ?
Questions that new traders and investors also asked themselves - Now price is so high, when is a good time to catch the low and get in or should I chase it higher ?
Today, we see many HK/CHINA stocks in a sea of red and I have shared before the psychological effect of RED colour on the human eyes. It creates a sense of URGENCY and the sometimes false Need to take action.
99.99% of the people when they see massive amount of blood will either frozen and not know what to do, some might faint while the more composed will quickly ask for help.
Same thing in trading/investment, people tend to sell fast and first when they see red in their portfolio, thinking it is better to have a bird in hand than worth two in the bush. What if I am wrong ? All my paper profits may go down the drain. And the latter is exacerbated if he/she has a string of losses prior to that so recovering whatever profits become a matter of priority and urgency to them.
I have highlighted here a few of my vested stocks and I am not selling for the simple fact that the business models of these companies are still very much intact. Yes, competition will get fiercer as more new players come onboard and also the China regulations might put a dampner on the stock price too. But, I view all these as temporary and any fall in price is a good time to accumulate.
As some of these stocks have run quite a fair bit (from 50-90% since March Low), it is totally acceptable to have some correction now. The pink circle depicts a simple analogy of the wave pattern that the price action moves in a chart, ie. wave like rather than a linear line.
It is hard for me to tell you to add more shares in an existing company that you have or use it to buy a new company. It is like if you have one red shirt in the wardrobe, would you add one more red shirt albeit a different design OR get a blue shirt for a change ?
If you buy a different company such as defence, infrastructure, etc then you are diversifying for stability and spreading your investment eggs across different sectors. Or you could go deeper into the value chain and acquire new shares of companies that operates within this vertical specialty. The latter works especially well if you have domain knowledge of an industry and know very well the competitive landscape, forecasts of the industry, government plans for this sector, etc.
Else, if you do not have the luxury of time to pursue such meticulous and granular details, an ETF that represents the top 10-30 companies in that field might be a good option too.
Again, I hope this thoughts of mine would benefit some of you in some ways when planning your portfolio. It can be much more fluid than you anticipated and customise it to suit your financial goals. Have fun :)
BYD could see pullback to trendline ! After a double top pattern formed, BYD might see some near-term correction. I do think a pullback to the trendline is possible, where the 76% fib retracement join 127% fib extension. BUt the general bullish trend might persist, good entry to buy from !
Alibaba trendline breakout, more upside ! Alibaba has broke out of the bearish trendline and could bounce from the bullish trendline intersection, more upside is available!
XIAOMI CUP AND HANDLEXiaomi has strong fundamentals and is on a strong rally, look to buy on weakness or invest longer term, price looks to have formed a cup and handle and broken out.
