CDSL a Long term opportunity under dsicountI Am a Software Developer and a Passionate Trader
Over the past five years, I have explored nearly every aspect of trading—technical analysis, intraday trading, MTF, pre-IPO investments, options selling, F&O, hedging, swing trading, long-term investing, and even commodities like gold and crude oil.
Through this journey, I realized that technical analysis is only about 20% of the equation . The real game is psychology and mindset .
I have distilled my learnings into concise points below—insights that have shaped my approach and will continue to guide me in my version 2.0 of trading. I hope they prove valuable to you as well.
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Position Sizing
One of the most important aspects of trading is choosing the right position size. Your trade should never be so large that it causes stress or worry. Keep it at a level where you can stay calm, no matter how the market moves.
Set Stop-Loss and Target Before Placing a Trade
Decide in advance when you will exit a trade—both at a loss ( stop-loss ) and at a profit ( target ). This helps maintain emotional balance, preventing extreme excitement or frustration.
How to Calculate Position Size
- Use technical analysis to identify your stop-loss and target .
- Example: If CMP is ₹100 and your stop-loss is at ₹94 (₹6 risk per share), determine your risk tolerance:
- ₹3,000 risk ➝ 500 shares (₹3,000 ÷ ₹6)
- ₹1,200 risk ➝ 200 shares (₹1,200 ÷ ₹6)
- Adjust quantity based on how much you're willing to risk.
Setting Target Price & Risk-Reward Ratio
The most important factor in setting a target is the risk-reward ratio . If your stop-loss is ₹6, your target should be at least ₹6, ₹9, or ₹12 .
Why Is Risk-Reward Important?
Let’s say you take 10 trades —5 go in your favor, and 5 go against you. If your risk-reward ratio isn’t favorable, you could end up in a loss.
Example:
- You lose ₹6 in two trades → ₹12 total loss
- You gain ₹3 in three trades → ₹9 total profit
- Net result: -₹3 loss
To ensure profitability, your reward should be equal to or greater than your risk . A 1.5x or 2x risk-reward ratio is ideal.
Flexibility in Targets
Even when the price reaches Target 1 , you can book partial profits and let the rest run with a trailing stop-loss .
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Managing Multiple Trades
This is very important . If you're a beginner, limit yourself to 2 trades , and even if you're a pro, avoid more than 3-5 positions .
Example: If you have ₹2 lakh , make sure you have only 2 trades open at a time . Add a third stock only when you close another position .
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How to Deploy Capital
Patience is key. If you have ₹1 lakh , divide it into 4-5 parts and buy in small chunks over time .
Why?
The nature of stocks is to move in waves—rising, facing profit booking, then breaking previous highs. Instead of investing everything at once, buy in staggered amounts to ensure your average price stays close to CMP .
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Avoid Market Noise
When trading, stay in your zone .
Social media posts can make you feel slow compared to others , but they don't show the full picture. Avoid distractions like:
- Direct stock tips from news channels
- P&L snapshots from traders
- Following too many analysts on social media
Instead, listen to expert views , but stay disciplined with your own strategy .
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Stock Selection
Stock selection has two elements—technical and fundamental (I'll write a separate post on this).
Always buy a stock that you can hold even in your darkest times .
Example:
- Choose blue-chip stocks with high market caps & strong promoter holdings
- Never buy a stock just because it’s in momentum
- If a stock turns into a forced SIP , it’s not a good buy
Pick stocks with a long-term story —even if you fail to exit at the right time, you should be comfortable holding them.
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Accept That It’s the Market, Not You
Many traders fail because they don’t admit that the market is unpredictable .
Losses happen because of volatility, not necessarily poor strategy. Example:
- You lose a trade and try improving your method but face another hit
- Some losses are simply beyond your control
Most of what happens in the market is not in your hands —including stop-loss triggers. Accept this reality, and focus on risk management instead of revenge trading.
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Keep Separate Trading & Investment Accounts
Trading and investing are different . If you keep them in the same account , you’ll:
- Book small profits on investments
- Hold short-term trades in losses
Having separate accounts keeps your goals clear .
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Don’t Let the Market Dominate You
Even full-time traders shouldn’t obsess over the market .
Limit your screen time to 2-3 hours during market hours .
Why?
- You can’t act on global markets until 9:15 AM IST
- Even if a war or tariff issue arises, you can’t do anything until market open
- Overthinking leads to over-trading , which drains money
Instead, invest time in developing new skills .
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Do What Suits You, Not Others
If you're good at swings, stick to swings . If you're good at intraday, do intraday .
Don't follow what works for a friend—trade based on what suits you .
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Avoid FOMO
Don't stress if a stock jumps 20% in a day .
Stock accumulation zones, demand/supply areas, profit booking , and retests happen regularly —opportunities will always come.
Even traders who claim they made 20% in a day don’t share how often they got trapped chasing stocks .
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Stop-Loss Is Your Best Friend
No, stop-loss is your best friend for life .
Example:
- Suppose you enter 10 trades in a month .
- 6 do well and you book profits.
- 4 go against you , but instead of exiting, you hold because you believe they’ll recover.
- Next month, you repeat this cycle —adding more positions.
Over time, this builds a portfolio of lagging stocks , and suddenly, your losses dominate your portfolio .
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Even Experts Face Losses
Even professionals with advanced research teams lose money .
Retail traders often believe they can avoid losses by analyzing a few ratios , but losses are part of trading .
A stop-loss ensures you stay in the game long-term —instead of holding onto losing trades indefinitely.
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Take a Break & Restart
Taking breaks is crucial . If everything is going wrong, don’t hesitate to press the reset button —step back, analyze, and refine your approach. A fresh mindset leads to better trading decisions. (I’ll write a detailed post on this soon.)
HINDUSTAN UNIL. Long term safe bet for investmentHUL: being a blue chip in the safest sector for FMCG in this extremely volatile market.
Add in this every fall in small quantity to reach 300 quantity so that this position can be used to hedge against CE sell or creating hedge position by sellign Fut lot, or buyin a PE.
But as HUL is a blue chip and has good growth expected in the coming years so this can be a safe bet.
This will have a good rally above 2500 and then above 2700
acc. till 2100-2400, good support at 2100 below 211
Disclaimer: only for educational purposes. not a buy-sell rec.
we can long on astral from the cmp 1343 2nd time retest the same level and we got small green candle on the given rangeof buyer area we can go long from here for the target of new high only for ling term view only we can consider
cmp - 1343
sl - 160 points from the the entry level
targe - new high from the swing level
Ye Chart Kuch Kehta Hai : Cholamandalam Financial HoldingCholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited (CFHL), a marquee name among India’s top 5 NBFCs by market capitalization and a key entity within the Murugappa Group, continues to demonstrate robust financial health and growth momentum. As a Core Investment Company registered with the RBI, CFHL offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and risk management solutions through its group companies, catering effectively to both individual and corporate clients.
Recent Performance Highlights:
The company has delivered a commendable profit CAGR of 20.5% over the past five years, underscoring consistent earnings growth.
Stock price performance has been exceptional, with a CAGR of 23% over 10 years, accelerating to 48% over 5 years, 45% over 3 years, and an impressive 83% in the last year alone.
Compounded profit growth remains strong, with 19% over 10 years, 21% over 5 years, 29% over 3 years, and 24% trailing twelve months (TTM).
Latest Quarterly and Annual Results:
Q4 FY25 disbursements rose 7% year-on-year to ₹26,417 crore, while annual disbursements crossed the ₹1 trillion mark at ₹1,00,869 crore, a 14% increase.
Assets Under Management (AUM) surged 30% year-on-year to ₹1,99,876 crore.
Net income for Q4 FY25 increased by 29% to ₹3,758 crore; Profit After Tax (PAT) grew 20% to ₹1,267 crore for the quarter and 24% to ₹4,259 crore for the full year.
The company maintains strong capital adequacy with a CAR of 19.75%, well above regulatory norms, and a comfortable liquidity position.
Asset quality remains robust with Gross NPA stable at 3.97% and NNPA at 2.63%, below RBI’s PCA threshold.
Technical Outlook:
From a technical perspective, the stock is poised for a breakout, perfectly positioned at the golden ratio level on the Fibonacci retracement, forming a classic cup pattern-an ideal setup signaling strong upside potential. The financial sector, particularly NBFCs, is currently in favor, and Cholamandalam stands out as one of the hottest picks in this space.
Investment Strategy:
Given the strong fundamentals and technical setup, this is an opportune moment to consider a position in CFHL. Investors should calibrate their stop-loss levels according to individual risk tolerance to safeguard capital while participating in the anticipated upward momentum.
This synthesis combines strong fundamentals with favorable technical signals, making Cholamandalam Financial Holdings a compelling investment candidate in the current market environment.
YE Chart Kuch Kehta Hai : ANURAS : Anupam RasayanThe chart presents a textbook breakout setup, exhibiting a classic cup formation with a low-risk entry point. Key observations include:
Channel Breakout Level: The price has decisively broken out above the channel resistance at ₹810, confirming bullish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement : Using the swing low at ₹627 as the base, the price is now advancing towards the critical 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately ₹1028.
Resistance Zone: This ₹1028 level corresponds to a significant historical resistance from January 2022, which was breached once before, signaling a potential strong supply zone.
Outlook: Given the current trajectory, the price is poised to challenge and potentially break this resistance again, indicating a high-probability continuation of the upward trend.
In summary: The chart is perfectly aligned for a breakout play, with a well-defined entry at the cup formation’s low-risk zone and strong confluence of technical indicators supporting further upside.
Play your game based on your risk appetite.
Ye chart kuch kehta hai : Deepak FertilizerClear break-out on cup, retested level of 1018 and started onwards journey for next high. Stock continue to make higher high for last 3 weeks. ROCE is not strong, but CAPEX investment fruits are expected to be rolling over. Though one may not like fundamental but technical indicators are favorable.
Yatharth hospital 470-490Yatharth hospital 470-490
Yatharth Hospital & Trauma Care Services Ltd. is a multi-specialty hospital chain operating in North India, with locations in Noida, Greater Noida, Noida Extension, and Jhansi. The hospital has been expanding its bed capacity and revenue at a strong pace, with operational bed capacity growing at a 25% CAGR and revenue increasing at 50% CAGR
ANGEL ONE - Potential Cup Pattern Breakout!Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Pattern: Cup Formation (shown with arc)
Setup:
Price is forming a classic cup pattern.
The neckline (arc resistance) is near 2538.40.
Price has recently approached but faced resistance around the neckline.
Once the price breaks above the arc line with strong volume, a bullish breakout could be confirmed!
Targets After Breakout:
🎯 Target 1: 2800
🎯 Target 2: 3000
Stop-loss suggestion: As per your risk management.
Notes:
Price is currently below the 200 EMA. For a strong confirmation, look for a close above the arc and the 200 EMA with volume spike.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Trading involves substantial risk.
COLPAL - Descending Channel Analysis | Key Resistance RejectionColgate Palmolive (NSE: COLPAL) is trading within a well-defined descending channel on the daily chart, indicating a sustained bearish trend. The stock recently tested the upper resistance zone of the channel near 2700–2750 and faced rejection, leading to a pullback. As long as the price remains below the resistance, the downside momentum towards the support zone near 2200–2300 may continue. A strong breakout above the channel resistance could signal a potential trend reversal. Traders should watch for confirmation before positioning.
Berger Paints at Make-or-Break Point:Descending Triangle PatternBerger Paints is currently testing the upper boundary of a long-term Descending Triangle on the weekly chart — a pattern known for sharp breakouts or breakdowns.
📊 Resistance Zone: 600 – A breakout above this level could trigger a powerful upside rally towards 825+, supported by the pattern's height projection.
🔻 Support Level: 543 – A breakdown below this level may lead to a sharp fall towards 400 levels.
⚠️ Bearish Pin Bar Candle at resistance signals caution; confirmation is key before entering any trade.
📌 Watch closely for a decisive move – this zone is critical for trend reversal or continuation.
This setup offers a high-reward opportunity for positional traders, with clear entry and exit zones. Manage your risk wisely and follow with volume confirmation.