BBRI : Rebound, Targeting Rp5750 pre-2024 Election VolatilityOn November 1, 2023, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) stock exhibited a notable touch on the lower trendline at Rp4930. This technical analysis delves into the implications of this touch, marked by a bullish pattern and rapid ascent, further substantiated by the stock's position above the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200 and a positive MACD crossover. The objective is to explore the basis for the continuation of the upward trend with a potential target range of Rp5750 before the anticipated market volatility preceding the 2024 Indonesian elections.
Technical Analysis:
Lower Trendline Touch and Bullish Pattern:
- The touch on the lower trendline at Rp4930 signals a substantial support level, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
- The emergence of a bullish pattern reinforces the positive sentiment, indicative of a swift upward movement.
EMA 200 Position:
- The stock's positioning above the EMA 200 signifies a robust long-term momentum.
- The close proximity of the stock price to the EMA 200 provides additional confirmation of the potential for a sustained upward trend.
MACD Conditions:
- The MACD exhibits a bullish condition with a crossover of the signal line to the upside and a positive histogram.
- The bullish signal from MACD supports the notion that buyer momentum is on the rise.
Upside Target:
Upper Target (Resistance):
- Given the confirmation from the trendline, EMA 200, and MACD, the initial upside target is set around Rp5750 or higher.
- This level encapsulates potential technical resistance that the BBRI stock may encounter during its upward trajectory.
Additional Analysis:
Supplementary Indicators:
- Further confirmation from auxiliary indicators like RSI and trading volume is recommended to provide a comprehensive view of trend strength and market participation.
Market News Monitoring:
- The potential for market volatility leading up to the 2024 Indonesian elections underscores the importance of vigilantly monitoring market news and political developments.
Risk Considerations:
Stop-Loss:
- Effective risk management involves placing a stop-loss beneath the trendline or support level.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, BBRI stock presents a compelling case for a continuation of its upward trajectory, supported by the confirmation from the trendline, EMA 200, and MACD. With a potential upside target of Rp5750, investors should remain vigilant as the market navigates the uncertainties leading up to the 2024 Indonesian elections. Regularly updating analyses in response to evolving market conditions and seeking advice from financial professionals is advisable before making investment decisions.
BREN - VELOCITY PLAYI have a position
October 27, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk pivot point
2. The stock offers the first buyable base after an IPO
3. It skyrockets huge >300% immediately after it went public
4. High relative strength, outperforming the general market
5. The stock is moving on its own universe, marching to its own drummer
6. Volume dries up during the pause
7. Big volume on the breakout
Flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 30% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
This is a power play type of setup, where velocity begets velocity. I like to see if it can hold up and move higher from here.
LOPI - PRIMARY BASEI bought my positions today
October 26, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. The stock offers the first buyable base after an IPO
3. Tight pivot level/line of the least resistance
4. High relative strength stock
5. It acted strong against the general market
The flaws:
1. The general market is still in hard-penny environment
2. Most individual setups I personally trade don't work out well in the past months
The stock closes good with a decent volume on the breakout. I want to see some constructive action in the upcoming days.
ACES (VCP - 12W 18/3 3T)I bought my positions today
October 12, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Prior strong upside move
3. Has gone through a majority line of supply
4. A breakaway move, the first breakout after the stock in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. High relative strength
6. The stock explodes 83% while the market only goes up 2%
7. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market
8. Huge volume on the breakout
Flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 35% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
I like to see the stock holds up and follow through.
BMRI (VCP - 32W 19/3 4T)I bought my positions today
July 20, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk pivot entry
2. A quintessential long-base VCP
3. The stock is at its all-time high with a six months base
4. It is in a confirmed stage 2 uptrend
5. It developed a crisp setup during the market correction
6. It has a high relative strength line
Flaw:
The general market is still declining
I'm expecting some positive actions in the upcoming days
SGER - POWER PLAYI bought my positions today
October 12, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry
2. The stock went up >300% in less than 8 weeks
3. A fractal of small cup with handle during the pause
4. The pause has less than 25% correction
4. Volume dries up as a sign of less supply coming to the market
5. Strong close with huge volume on the breakout
6. A high alpha stock with a low standard deviation
7. One of the leaders in this market environment
8. Theme: Power Play setups work fine thus far
The flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 35% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
This stock is so strong, a Power Play on top of a Power Play. I like to see some follow-throughs in the upcoming days.
BDKR (VCP - 6W 15/5 3T)I bought my positions today
October 1, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. Prior strong upside move
3. Very clear and crisp pivot point
4. One of the leaders in the current market
5. Stock explodes >100% while the market only goes up 6%
6. High relative strength
Flaw:
1. Hard-penny environment
2. Bad close, stock squats after the breakout
I like to see the stock holds up well and perhaps pivot resets.
AMMN - POWER PLAYI bought my positions today
September 29, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry with a crisp pivot point
2. The stock is up >100% in less than 8 weeks
3. Corrected the least during the pause, less than 25% correction
4. Volume dries up as a sign of less supply coming to the market
5. Good close and decent volume on the breakout
6. A high alpha stock with a low standard deviation
7. One of the leaders in this market environment
The flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 36% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
This is a Velocity Play of a current IPO stock. I expect to see some positive price action in the upcoming days.
PANI - POWER PLAYI bought my positions today
September 25, 2023
The reasons:
1. Low-risk entry point
2. The stock is up >100% in less than 8 weeks
3. Corrected the least during the pause, less than 25% correction
4. Volume dries up as a sign of less supply coming to the market
5. High alpha stock with a low standard deviation
6. Good close on the breakout
The flaw:
The market is still in a hard-penny environment with only 36.7% of total stocks above the 200-day MA.
I'm still trading small with a pilot position until I see some trades work out fine.