SIMP. Waiting for the next swing low. SIMP .
The story: after it broke the resistance, the resistance has become a support. Now it retest the support. The last candle is a bearish candle with little wick/shadow/tail. It means minim rejection, or I assume there was no rejection. So, it potential break the support and go down to the demand area to pick up some volume before it bounch back. If it happened, it will be inverse head and shoulders pattern and we are looking for the next swing low to enter. That is 1st scenario.
The second scenario, bull power so strong in the next candle and break the swing high (HH). If this happened, we can enter soon after it breaks the HH.
I think, in my prediction, 1st scenario will going to happen. Any other point of view, guys? Please share with me. Thank you.
IDX $AGII Rising Wedge Potential Breakdown$AGII of IDX
Technical:
Rising Wedge breakdown followed a textbook ABC pattern
Breakdown will result in freefall to a strong first support at 1400 area, followed by a failed attempt to push past the bottom channel of the wedge and will start another freefall to the next support at 800 area inside 0.618 fib area.
Fundamental:
The trigger would likely be the (next) earning report as evidence in decline of EBITDA over the subsequence quarter which has little hope to reclaim record earning at Q3 2021
Q4 2021 exhibit a poor earning performance(-25% from Q3) but followed by a to new ATH at 2500. The (low volume) markup most likely mark the start of distribution phase to from institution to retail whom realized the declining performance of the company and increasingly unhealthy interest payment coverage by its operating cash flow (EBIT/debt interest : 1.7x)
AGII's EBITDA
Q3 2021 275
Q4 2021 204 ↓
Q1 2022 184 ↓