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Very undervalued, in pension funds portfolioThe Rockbridge fund heavily shorts it. Here is a register of only the large (above 0.2 %) shorts sold by Polish stock exchange (the one which starts from G): rss.knf.gov.pl/RssOuterView/ These are just shorts sold by Warsaw Stock Exchange. Below numbers assume that only these exist, which is not true. You have individual shorts, institutional shorts below 0.2%, you have shorts from every other broker. It exists since 1949 and is going to take part in Polish green energy transformation. One of its key products is gas systems. Minor shareholders of the company are Polish pension funds and largest polish bank. You can check here: biznesradar.pl/akcjonariat/RAFAKO Polish Stock Exchange sells 8-month positions. Current shorts started 15th Jan 2021. Average 10 day volume is 1.128M shares which means $338.4k. Total shares outstanding is 127M shares, so every 1% of the capital shorted is 1.27M, which gives 1.27/1.128 x 10 = 11 days to cover per percent. So for 10% its 110 days to cover.
GPW:RFKLong
by heraldX
CDR Short Squeeze Failure?This is an update to: www.tradingview.com As noted before we lacked upward movement that could end 2nd elliott wave in a statistically popular fibo retracement level. As short squeeze against Mevlin Capital inspired detail investors we have reached a popular level of 61.8%. It seems that memes have lost their momentum for buying stocks like GME or AMC according to what can be seen on the charts I assume the same will happen CDR. Just as writing this possibly S&P500 and NDX stocks are starting to loose upward momentum for the day tomorrow might be a crucial day for CDR. Reaching MA200 cannot come unnoted. New Fundamentals (previous are still in effect): Polish WIG20 index which CDR is part of has reached a significant barrier where bears can return. New Speculation (previous are still in effect): Short squeeze against Melin Capital (still shorting CDR but at significantly lower level) is loosing momentum as panic movements can be observed both on GME and AMC.
GPW:CDRShort
by deejayzajac
7
CD Project on the road to repeat dot com yahoo scenarioFundamentals: CyberPunk 2077 is significantly below expectations Latest significant patch is not getting only positive results Speculations: Sales are significantly down due to refunds and cutting price almost by half of game copy Technicals: First downward movement by Elliott Wave theory is an impulse wave that was initiated by fact sellers. Current consolidation fits into wave two but what is not most statistically popular is that it barely bounced 38,2% fibo. It could end soon or we could still see upward movement towards 350 which is located at 50% fibonacci retracement level where that would be an ideal spot to join the short movement.
GPW:CDRShort
by deejayzajac
4
Cyberpunk 2077: Bagholders are suing!What a terrible game! People have been comparing it with GTA, Saints Row, and other games from 15 years ago, and they have more detail, much better AI, much better animations, than this overhyped mess they worked on for 8 years. Even lego has better AI and animations. In Cyberpunk you fire at police they do not react. Some animations are here, and they all look the same so you end up with 20 NPCS doing the exact same thing at the exact same time it's actually scary, very troubling. There are plenty of videos of it circulating, it is just so bad. As you can see the share price of this success story (until recently) has been going up in a straight line: They have been making great games (and profits) on budgets and on a valuation that were not collosal, I do not know what caused them to release this crap, but it's possible they come back, it's just 1 failure. Maybe the hyped company is overvalued anyway, P/E has been at a factor 1000 for a really long time, it was only a buy because of the linear trend. A 90% drop would not even be enough for a 50% retrace. And if that happens it will be really ugly and not as interesting on a chart perspective. So maybe better to avoid (bad valuation + bad chart = nothing left). It could bottom here and then go up (with a big effort on their part) and continue the trend but I'm not sure this happens. There are plenty of videos of people of this company that are lying, real lies. They spent a long time hyping the game and not just overselling it but really lying about what's in it. So now americans have sued the company, whose shares are available to them via these tickers: Here this page includes what I think is the first class action lawsuit against them: www.polygon.com So... Are there any really good games at the moment, like The Witcher? Any great game come out of nowhere with a freshly listed developer/publisher? All I noticed myself was (all in euros): Quantic Dream (2010 : Heavy Rain, 2013 : Beyond: Two Souls, 2018 : Detroit: Become Human). They are a (french) private company. Revenues 2017 10MM 2019 14MM. The british guy with a history chanel on youtube that made the Sniper Elite games and owns judge Dredd rights. Private company. 300 people, no idea about revenue. Asobo Studio (A Plague Tale : Innocence). Another french private company. Revenues 2017 10MM. CD Projekt has >1000 employees (the french companies have 180 each), their revenue is 100MM. Take-Two Interactive (Rockstar, GTA) has 5000 employees and their most recent revenue is 3 billion $ (300 million usd net revenue). Maybe CD Projekt was too small for such a big project? They made the Witcher, and the french companies made good solid games (but not giant) with far less money & people. Well the companies that made Saints Row had maybe 100 people, maybe even less. Who knows how much they outsourced? Meh I really can't tell how this works. Much easier to look at their past results to project in the future, and it is also pretty easy to see when everything will go wrong, but I don't know enough to predict what will happen based on the company fundamentals themselves. With covid the successful game Plague Inc has had a great success, they made another game but wasn't that interesting. Who knows what company will go public next, who knows what will happen, how do you hear about them? It seems to me one needs to be attentive and quite specialized for this. I remember hearing of The Witcher but I did not know CD Projekt had gone public until years later and I had better things to do than follow their trend. More than 10 years ago I was still studying and not trading at all, I had no experience, and I knew with absolute certainty the company Jowood would collapse, and soon, and it did! So it is possible. And there are some easy bets with gaming companies (perhaps hedge funds do not take them seriously ==> there is not that much competition). Hey hey hey, with all the independant game devs, especially all the many steam games being made, this is happening: Not surprising at all. The golden era just started, so this could keep going up. Could risk it (1%), could wait and join the trend if there is one. At the same time if we are close to the US total collapse you might want to wait a bit. Not that easy... Once the collapse happened and there is a NWO (Europe? China? Middle East?) with everyone finding their new place, things will be more clear for a long while. Might want to wait for all this to happen before really investing in anything. Till then it's just quick bets for me.
GPW:CDR
by MrRenev
4