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NN GROUP ($NN) Q4—INSURANCE CASH SHINES IN EUROPENN GROUP ( EURONEXT:NN ) Q4—INSURANCE CASH SHINES IN EUROPE (1/9) Good evening, TradingView! NN Group ( EURONEXT:NN ) is humming—H2 revenue hit $ 7.94B, topping estimates 📈🔥. Q4 earnings and a cash boost spark buzz—let’s unpack this Dutch dynamo! 🚀 (2/9) – REVENUE RUSH • H2 Haul: $ 7.94B—beats $ 7.41B est. 💥 • Full ‘24: $ 12.36B—up 12% from $ 11.03B 📊 • OCG: $ 1.9B—hits ‘25 goal early EURONEXT:NN ’s cash flow’s sizzling—steady wins! (3/9) – BIG MOVES • Buyback: $ 300M—shares get a lift 🌍 • Dividend: $ 3.44—up 8%, juicy payout 🚗 • Deals: $ 360M settled—risks trimmed 🌟 EURONEXT:NN ’s flexing—insurance muscle shines! (4/9) – SECTOR SNAP • P/E: ~10—below 11.9x avg 📈 • P/B: 0.57—vs. sector’s 1.04—cheap? • Edge: 12% growth tops peers 🌍 EURONEXT:NN ’s a bargain—or just quiet strength? (5/9) – RISKS ON DECK • EPS Miss: $ 2.21 vs. $ 3.60—hiccup ⚠️ • Rates: Volatility stings returns 🏛️ • Climate: Claims could climb—yikes 📉 Solid run—can it dodge the bumps? (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS • Cash: $ 1.9B OCG—rock solid 🌟 • Payouts: 8% divvy, $ 300M buyback 🔍 • Europe: 20% new biz—growth zip 🚦 EURONEXT:NN ’s a steady beast—built tough! (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES • Weaknesses: EPS slip, Dutch lean 💸 • Opportunities: Eastern Europe perks 🌍 Can EURONEXT:NN zap past the risks? (8/9) – EURONEXT:NN ’s Q4 cash surge—what’s your vibe? 1️⃣ Bullish—Value shines bright. 2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, risks hover. 3️⃣ Bearish—Misses stall it out. Vote below! 🗳️👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY EURONEXT:NN ’s $ 7.94B H2 and $ 1.9B OCG spark zing—insurance hums 🌍. Low P/E, but EPS wobbles—gem or pause?
EURONEXT:NNLong
by DCAChampion
HAL NV: Unlocking Hidden Value in a Discounted InvestmentCurrent Price: Approximately €117.40 per share Target Price: €150 per share HAL NV (traded via HAL Trust) has long been recognized as a unique investment vehicle, thanks to its diversified portfolio of high-quality assets. Despite a current trading level around €117.40, a closer look at the underlying holdings and operational performance reveals a significant value gap—one that suggests the stock should be priced nearer to €150. Key Holdings and Their Strengths Boskalis – A Fully Owned Flagship • 100% Ownership: HAL NV owns Boskalis outright, giving it full exposure to the maritime and offshore construction market. • Robust Order Books: Boskalis benefits from a full order book, which not only secures future revenues but also demonstrates strong market positioning. • Operational Efficiency: With steady execution in its core business, Boskalis adds both resilience and growth potential to HAL’s overall portfolio. SBM Offshore – Secure Order Pipeline • Substantial Stake (22.9%): While not fully owned, SBM Offshore represents a key component in HAL’s strategy. • Solid Order Books: Like Boskalis, SBM Offshore’s strong order backlog underscores its ability to generate future cash flow. • Strategic Exposure: The offshore energy market, driven by both traditional and renewable energy projects, positions SBM Offshore for long-term growth. Vopak – Consistent Performer with Upward Trends • Major Stake (51.4%): HAL’s significant interest in Vopak captures exposure to the global tank storage and logistics sector. • Earnings Fluctuation, But Upward Trend: Although Vopak’s earnings can fluctuate year over year, the overall trend has been strongly positive, reinforcing its role as a reliable income generator. Additional Growth Catalysts • Coolblue (56.4%) & TKH Group (5.2%): These holdings further diversify HAL’s portfolio, offering exposure to high-growth sectors such as retail technology and industrial services. The Valuation Gap: NAV vs. Market Price One of the most compelling aspects of HAL NV is the notable discrepancy between its Net Asset Value (NAV) and its market capitalization: NAV Insight: Recent reports and annual filings suggest that the NAV per share of HAL’s underlying assets is approximately €165.95. Market Discount: Trading at around €117.40, HAL NV is effectively offered at a significant discount. This “hidden value” implies that the market has yet to fully recognize the aggregate worth of its high-quality investments. Equity vs. Market Cap: With the equity value of its portfolio (including fully consolidated companies like Boskalis and the robust valuations from quoted holdings such as Vopak and SBM Offshore) substantially higher than the current market cap, the potential for upward re-rating is evident. Hal NV is poised for robust long‐term growth, with annual rates expected to reach around 15%. This optimism is driven by strong demand for the services of Boskalis and SBM Offshore, both of which continue to benefit from substantial order books. Additionally, the accelerated growth of Coolblue and the steady, consistent performance of Vopak—bolstered by emerging opportunities in India—further enhance the outlook. Coupled with a conservative balance sheet that ensures a low cost of capital, these factors collectively support the company’s promising growth trajectory. Catalysts for Price Convergence Several factors support the rationale for a price target of €150: Strong Order Books: Both Boskalis and SBM Offshore are backed by extensive order books, which not only secure future revenue streams but also reduce operational risks. Consistent Growth Trends: Vopak, despite some earnings volatility, has demonstrated a significant long-term upward trend in earnings—enhancing the overall stability of HAL’s portfolio. Undervalued Underlying Assets: The current market price does not fully reflect the NAV derived from HAL’s diverse investments. As market sentiment improves and the intrinsic value becomes more widely recognized, a re-rating toward the NAV is likely. Favorable Valuation Metrics: HAL NV’s relatively low Price/Earnings ratio compared to its growth prospects and asset quality makes it an attractive buy for value-oriented investors. Conclusion HAL NV represents an intriguing investment opportunity—a trust whose market price currently undervalues a robust portfolio of operationally strong and strategically significant companies. With full control over Boskalis and solid stakes in SBM Offshore and Vopak, combined with additional growth prospects from Coolblue and TKH Group, the underlying equity far exceeds the current market valuation. In essence, if the market were to recognize the full value of these assets, a price target of €150 per share appears not only justified but highly attainable. Investors looking for a value play in the industrial and investment holding space should keep a close eye on HAL NV, as the convergence of market price to NAV could deliver significant upside potential. Note: The analysis above is based on current market data (price ≈ €117.40) and recent annual reports, and reflects the author’s view on the intrinsic value of HAL NV. Investors should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
EURONEXT:HALLong
by The_Prince
1
Atos : Post-Split Recovery and Key Market ScenariosFollowing the massive share split (13,497 new shares for every 24 old shares), Atos experienced a significant price drop from $1 to $0.0024. The stock reached its lowest point at $0.0015 on December 17, marking a critical bottom. From January 9 to February 11, Atos entered a consolidation phase, ranging between $0.0024 and $0.0019, indicating a period of accumulation. However, on February 18, the price broke above its post-split all-time high, reaching $0.0035, with an intraday high of $0.0039. Now, after this sharp extension from $0.0020 to $0.0039, a pullback is necessary to stabilize price action and determine the next trend. Potential Scenarios for Atos Price Action 1. Bullish Continuation: Uptrend Formation If Atos holds above $0.0028, we could see a bullish channel forming, with price moving between $0.0028 and $0.0035. This scenario would set up a gradual uptrend, signaling continued accumulation and confidence in further recovery. Key Level to Watch: $0.0028 must hold as support to confirm the bullish momentum. 2. Neutral Consolidation: Sideways Trading Range If the price drops below $0.0028, Atos could enter another consolidation phase, ranging between $0.0023 and $0.0029. This would indicate that the market is still undecided, with neither bulls nor bears taking full control. Key Level to Watch: $0.0023 should act as strong support, preventing further downside. 3. Bearish Retest: Hunting for Liquidity at $0.0018–$0.0019 In a bearish scenario, Atos could break below $0.0023 and head toward $0.0018–$0.0019. If this zone holds, it could trigger a new buying wave, stopping the bearish momentum and potentially creating a new hype cycle. Key Level to Watch: Price must refuse to go under $0.0018 for buyers to regain control. Conclusion: Crucial Levels to Watch for Atos' Next Move Bullish scenario: Hold above $0.0028, creating an uptrend between $0.0028 and $0.0035. Neutral scenario: Drop below $0.0028, consolidating in a range between $0.0023 and $0.0029. Bearish scenario: Test $0.0018–$0.0019, with a potential rebound if this zone holds strong. With the recent price breakout, Atos is now at a critical turning point, where the next few trading sessions will determine whether bullish momentum continues or if the stock will enter another consolidation or correction phase.
EURONEXT:ATOShort
by QuantumFusionWave
Why Hermès’ margins shame the competitionThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox. You know my favourite stocks are luxury stocks, and they’ve had a hard last year. Richemont and Moncler were the clear standouts from the most recent season (both grew sales), while Brunello did well too. Obviously, Kering did not do well. Here’s Hermes, which pretty much smashed everyone out of the park: Revenue amounted to €15.2 billion (+15% at constant exchange rates and +13% at current exchange rates) Recurring operating income reached €6.2 billion, representing 40.5% of sales Adjusted free cash flow amounted to €3.8 billion, up by 18% Can we take a step back and please admire what smashing results those are — that’s a luxury business which does not cut corners operating on a 40.5% margin, with a free cash flow stream that is unheard of for the luxury industry. Let’s also consider that this is during what is nominally a recession. Worth thinking about what makes Hermes special: A hatred of meetings, corporate hogwash, and the associated. They compete only with themselves — not others . Human values. Hermes objects are made by people and bought by people . Corporate hogwash tends to see people as numbers, and then corporate hogwash forgets about the importance of psychology. A fanatical obsession with product — product is the message. No marketing team. If your product is good enough, and the story you communicate is good enough, the people will come. The same can be said of Brunello, which I have always said is like a “mini-Hermes” — people buy Brunello for quality and the ethos it communicates. Worth re-reading Brunello’s daily routine, which does not look like the nonsense ice bath CEOs who you see on Instagram:
EURONEXT:RMS
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Randstad: A Value Caution in a Shifting LandscapeRandstad NV (AEX: RAND) currently trades around €41.55 with a market cap of approximately €7.62 billion. While many investors may be drawn to its strong dividend history and solid reputation in staffing, a closer look at the fundamentals and macroeconomic outlook suggests that the market may be overestimating its near‐term growth prospects. Declining Profitability A review of Randstad’s recent financials is cause for caution. The company’s net income has shown a marked deterioration over recent years—from €929 million in 2022 to €624 million in 2023 and further down to €272 million on a nine‑month basis in 2024. This steep decline is partly due to mounting operating costs and weakening revenues. From a Buffett perspective, a business with persistent profitability erosion—even one with a storied track record—may have its intrinsic value overstated relative to its current market price. Earnings Release Timing: Pre‐Market Clarity Randstad’s Q4 2024 earnings are scheduled for release on February 12, 2025, at 01:00 AM CET—well before the regular trading hours (pre‑market) on the Amsterdam exchange. This timing can sometimes lead to volatility, as the market digests the numbers before the open. In a scenario where the figures further confirm the declining trends in net income and margins, the pre‑market reaction could set the tone for a downtrend next week.  Macroeconomic Headwinds Beyond company-specific issues, broader economic signals weigh on Randstad’s prospects. Staffing firms are inherently tied to the health of the labor market. Recent reports indicate that while headline figures such as a 143,000-job gain in January might appear robust, underlying trends—including uncertainty over labor market stability and rising concerns over long‑term employment—suggest caution. An environment of higher unemployment (or the fear thereof) can dampen demand for staffing and recruitment services as companies curtail expansion plans. In other words, if fewer people are employed, fewer job openings and less turnover can translate into lower revenues for Randstad over time.  The Technology Disruption Factor Adding another layer of risk, the accelerating pace of technological advancement—particularly in artificial intelligence—could further disrupt traditional staffing. As AI and automation drive efficiencies, many roles traditionally filled through temporary or permanent placement may become obsolete. This transformation not only dampens the immediate demand for recruitment services but also challenges long‑term earnings growth forecasts. When future cash flows are discounted in a model, even a modest shock to growth expectations can result in a present value that is lower than the current market price. Index Inclusion and Credit Concerns Another point to consider is Randstad’s position as the smallest company in the AEX index. Index inclusion is not merely a matter of prestige; it also affects liquidity and investor perception. Losing its spot in the index would heighten uncertainty and could trigger a reassessment of its creditworthiness. A downgraded credit score would raise borrowing costs—further squeezing margins in an already challenging operating environment. A Cautionary DCF Under a Short‑Term Shock A refined look at Randstad’s valuation—one that factors in its debt—offers additional perspective on the risks ahead. In our pessimistic scenario—where net income falls to around €300 million, the perpetual growth rate declines to 2.5%, and the discount rate rises to 7% (reflecting increased credit risk)—the resulting firm value (or enterprise value) comes out to approximately €6.67 billion. However, since this figure represents the value of both debt and equity, we must subtract the net debt to determine the value attributable solely to shareholders. Assuming net debt is roughly €1.38 billion, the estimated equity value would be about €5.29 billion. Dividing that by the 175.14 million shares outstanding gives an estimated share price of around €30. This refined approach, which includes the effect of debt, reinforces the view that a short‑term earnings shock combined with a less favorable long‑term outlook could significantly compress Randstad’s share price. Conclusion In the spirit of Warren Buffett’s careful, long‑term analysis, the case for Randstad appears to be one of caution rather than opportunity. Persistent declines in profitability, headwinds from both macroeconomic signals and technological disruption, and risks associated with its index position all point toward a stock that may be overpriced relative to its intrinsic value. With the pre‑market earnings release scheduled for February 12 (01:00 AM CET), investors should be prepared for potential downside pressure in the coming week if the results confirm these concerns. In summary, while Randstad remains a well‑managed company with a solid track record, its recent decline in profitability, exposure to macroeconomic headwinds, and risks from technological disruption suggest that its current price may be overoptimistic. A simple DCF analysis—even one that factors in debt—underscores this caution: under a short‑term earnings shock scenario, the estimated share price could drop to around €30. For value investors who prize long‑term clarity and rational assessment, these multiple signals warrant a careful reassessment of Randstad’s outlook.
EURONEXT:RANDShort
by The_Prince
1
Livestock and Poultry Sector On February 3, 2025The global livestock and poultry sector is grappling with challenges due to escalating feed costs and supply constraints. Key commodities such as corn ACTIVTRADES:CORNH2025 and soybeans CBOT:ZS1! , which constitute a major portion of animal feed, have seen substantial price increases driven by adverse weather conditions, reduced crop yields, and heightened demand for biofuels. These factors are putting pressure on producers, particularly in the U.S., where red meat and poultry production is expected to decline by 2% in the current year compared to the previous one. In addition to rising feed costs, outbreaks of diseases like Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have further strained production capabilities. The U.S., one of the largest exporters of poultry products, has experienced widespread culling of flocks, leading to a reduction in supply and subsequent price hikes. According to the USDA, wholesale prices for chicken breasts have surged by 15%, while beef prices have increased by 8% year-over-year. This trend is likely to persist as producers continue to face elevated input costs and logistical hurdles. All the data can be found in WASDE report . Impact on Global Trade Dynamics The contraction in U.S. meat production is reshaping global trade patterns, creating opportunities for alternative suppliers. Countries like Brazil and Argentina, major players in the global meat market, are capitalizing on the situation by increasing their export volumes to traditional U.S. markets, including Asia and Europe. For instance, Brazilian exports of beef BMFBOVESPA:BEEF3 and poultry BMFBOVESPA:BRFS3 rose by 10% in Q4 2024, underscoring the shifting dynamics in international trade. Meanwhile, China's growing self-sufficiency in pork production following the recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF) has reduced its reliance on imports, impacting global demand for pork. Investors should also note the potential long-term implications of these shifts. As countries diversify their sourcing strategies, regions with lower production costs and robust infrastructure may gain a competitive edge. This could lead to sustained changes in market share distribution among key players. Investment Implications For investors, the current environment presents both risks and opportunities. Companies involved in alternative protein sources, such as plant-based meats and aquaculture, may benefit from increasing consumer interest in cost-effective and sustainable options. Additionally, advancements in feed efficiency technologies and genetic improvements in livestock breeding offer promising avenues for investment. On the other hand, traditional meat producers may struggle unless they can effectively manage rising input costs through vertical integration or operational efficiencies. From a regional perspective, emerging markets with favorable agricultural conditions and supportive government policies are likely to attract capital. Investors should closely monitor developments in countries like India, Thailand, and Vietnam, where poultry and aquaculture sectors are expanding rapidly. Inference The livestock and poultry sector faces challenges stemming from high feed costs and disease outbreaks. While these issues are pressuring global meat supplies and influencing trade flows, they also create opportunities for innovation and diversification. By staying informed about market trends and technological advancements, investors can position themselves to capitalize on the evolving landscape of the global protein industry.
EURONEXT:LOUP
by juliakhandoshko
Alfen longAlfen, a Dutch company with a lot of potential. When it crashed 90% it got my attention again. It is back to where it was in 2018/2019. Although the price falls, the RSI rises. I also see a price cap on the daily timeframe, approximately between 21-32 euros. I wouldn't be surprised if Alfen starts to skyrocket now. I keep graphs, but more on a macro level (timeframes of decades). I noticed this by chance and it seems interesting, also because I think that car charging stations and energy storage will become interesting in the coming years. Note: I am not a trader or anything like that!
EURONEXT:ALFENLong
by Krijgsman
5
ASML HOLDING N.V - BUY APPROVEDASML Buy Recommendation is Certified. 1. The major trendline since 2009 has been tested and remains solid. 2. The Fibonacci retracement is currently at the 0.618 level, the ultimate prime level. 3. The Fibonacci extension consistently proves accurate. 4. The presidential election year is historically the best time to invest, plus the stock is currently discounted. 5. ASML holds a global monopoly in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology. 6. Earnings have consistently been excellent, with the company being highly profitable. 7. Some market pressures are driven by American interests, aiming to undermine ASML in order to prevent the sale of machines to China. TARGET: 1450 EUR
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by TheAverageTrader00
1
ASML - Downtrend & Push backTREND According to the current wave structure, it is in the downtrend. Characteristically, it is used to create pull and push backs after support/resistance breakout. So we can expect similar behavior now. It has not formed a channel yet, but a probable channel can be estimated as on the chart. Moving Averages The current price is under 100-day (Turquoise) (so supports downtrend) 50-day (Orange) will most likely cross 100-day (Turquoise) from up to down (powerful indicator supporting downtrend) in two weeks, unless prices exceeds 50-day. 200-day (Blue) has just worked as a support, but the next momentum is expected to be more powerful resulting a potential breakout of 200-day support. SUMMARY Based on this analysis, a price action following the blue arrow is highly probable.
EURONEXT:ASMLShort
by EmreSrn