#GMKN - Option x2/x2.5 with 14% annual yield. Good day, dear investors.
We continue to bet on the normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States and Europe, one of the recipients of these events will be Norilsk Nickel.
GMKN is a producer of nickel, copper, platinum, palladium, the list is much wider, but this is the main thing. An export company, it has a full production cycle: mining, enrichment, production, logistics and sales. In connection with foreign economic activity, the devaluation risks of the national currency are less aggressively distributed.
Financial indicators are stable. Under the influence of restrictions, net profit and revenue are decreasing, but net assets remain in surplus and are growing despite the rising cost of servicing debt obligations.
The average dividend yield over the past 10 years is 14.3 ₽ per 1 share, which at the time of writing is 13.6%.
The technical picture is bearish. The stock has dropped to the range of 123-77, where trading is taking place below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The target of this bearish cycle may be marks near the lower boundary of the range.
Possible scenarios:
- Direct fall to 77
- Growth to 139 - 149 and fall to 77
- End of the bearish cycle.
Our team believes that at the moment the company's quotes are at historically low price levels, especially considering the quotes of precious metals and the growth of the money supply in Russia. At the same time, if our expectations for the normalization of external relations are not met, the shares will still be able to grow and neutralize currency risks, according to the scenario of Iran or Turkey and their stock markets. Therefore, despite the bearish view from technical analysts, we are considering this company for addition to our portfolio on the Russian market.
With respect to you,
Daniel Drozdov.
CIS Market Analyst VokCapital
