MMK: Stock price will repeat the 2nd quarterAgainst the backdrop of strong fin. indicators of the 3rd quarter
Key factors and catalysts
Annual forward dividend approximate to 40% in H2 2021
Should significantly increase production up to 30%
Cost less than competitors in one sector on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples
Beneficiary of commodity supercycle 2021
Most likely going to be included in the MSCI Russia index
The desire of the main shareholder to increase free-float by 2%, which gives an increase in FIF by 0.5 and weight in the MSCI index
Main beneficiary from the transition from duties to MET tax from the beginning of 2022
Main beneficiary from the decline in world prices for iron ore and high prices for hot-rolled steel
Negative debt load
Making every effort to be ESG friendly
An unprecedented openness and disclosure of information to investors
It is a super clear and transparent business with a double-digit dividend history
We calculate financial indicators for the 3rd quarter of 2021
Revenue - $ 3302.6 million to increase by 1.5% q / q (3370 * 980)
EBITDA - $ 1,380.7 million decrease by 3.8% q/q including the effect of duties $ 60 million (3,370 * 427.5-60000)
Profit - $ 1017 million (1380.7-125) * (1-0.19)
Total NWC - a decrease by $ 259 million due to a significant decrease in world prices for iron ore and a decrease in prices for finished products due to the introduction of temporary duties on inventories (1425 * (0.4 * 0.33 + 0.20 * 0.25))
FCF - $ 1,045 million, an increase of 92% q/q (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Taxes = 1380.7 + 259-350-245)
Dividend - $0.11. an increase of 222% taking into account compensation over a cappex ((1045 + 350-175) / 11174.33) or 9.4% in quarter
