LHC going upBoth fundamental and technical are lining up. Appears to be a promising investment opportunity. The company is significantly undervalued, and the company's financial health looks robust.
$JSEBTI - Brutish American Tobacco: Looking To Buck DowntrendSee link below for previous analysis.
BTI stock looks set to buck the trend of lower lows and lower highs.
52180 cps has been holding and the stock has made a first higher low is trending up to make a first higher high.
It's still early to call a trend change but it's on the cards.
$JSEQLT - Quilter: Buy The Dips See link below for previous analysis.
The uptrend has resumed after a period of brief consolidation.
Buy the dips; the shallow consolidation is evidence that the momentum is to the upside.
$JSECPI - Capitec: I Count Five Waves & Bearish DivergenceSee link below for previous analysis.
Capitec continued to trend as previously forecasted but now there are two major signs of concern.
I count five waves up from the May 2023 low and there is strong price/MACD divergence.
Wave 5 can continue further up from here but a break below 196116 cps will confirm that the the five wave advance is complete; a new should see wave 5 extend into new all-time highs.
I am neutral at this juncture.
$JSECFR - Richemont: New All-Time High In SiteSee link below for previous analysis.
The key invalidation level at 215732 cps held and the stock resumed its uptrend for wave 5 of (3).
Wave 5 appears to be unfolding as a large ending diagonal and the minimum expectation is for price to make a new all-time high.
This may not happen in a straight line so any pullback will present a buying opportunity.
Buy the dips.
$JSEOUT - OUTsurance: Bulls Take A Much Needed BreatherSee link below for previous analysis.
The bulls proved to be more dominant than i anticipated and took the stock to new all time highs.
This has prompted an update of the five wave impulse move from March 2020 to 4600 cps.
The bulls appear to be taking a breather for wave which has been a shallow correction thus far, further indicating that they are still in charge.
Though hard to say where the low will be at this stage, the outlook is still bullish.
British American Tobacco smoking up to R623.86Awesome W Formation was made on British American Tobacco.
Price broke above the neckline and above the 20 and 200MA.
Looks great for upside all the way to R623.86 as the first target.
Now the JSE ALSI needs to follow suit for the momentum to continue.
Our opinion on the current state of CAPPREC(CTA)Capprec (CTA) is a fintech company offering payments and payment infrastructure as well as software and services. Patrice Motsepe's African Rainbow Capital (ARC) owns a stake in the company. The payments side of the business is handled through African Resonance and Dashpay, while the software side involves systems development and consulting. The company owns 17.5% of Resonance Australia, a startup business. All the major banks in South Africa are among its clients.
In its results for the year to 31st March 2024, the company reported revenue up 19% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 83%. The company said, "Strong progress arising from new and diversified revenue streams - R123 million investment in future revenue opportunities - Successful integration of the Dariel acquisition - R320 million cash generated from operations, up 75% - Continued growth in the terminal estate, up 9% to 357,000 - Multiple terminal tenders awarded post year-end."
The share now trades at a P:E of 8.67. Roughly R1.3 million worth of shares change hands each day, making this share quite feasible for private investors. The company appears to be well-managed, profitable, and cash-flush, which means that it is beginning to attract institutional interest.
Technically, the share has been in a downward trend since January 2022, and we advise waiting for a break up through its downward trendline, which does not look like it will happen anytime soon.
Overall, Capprec presents a promising investment opportunity with strong financial performance and growth prospects. However, potential investors should monitor the technical trends and wait for a clear upward signal before considering entry.
Our opinion on the current state of NICTUS(NCS)Nictus (NCS) is a furniture and electrical appliance retailer with three stores in South Africa. It also sells short-term insurance through Corporate Guarantee. In its financials for the six months to 30th September 2023, the company reported revenue of R15 million, down from the previous period's R16.6 million, and earnings per share (EPS) of 6.93c compared with a loss of 0.71c in the previous period. The company stated, "We are fortunate to have a strong capital base to carry the group during times of uncertainty and adverse economic conditions. The group has no external debt financing."
In a trading statement for the year to 31st March 2024, the company estimated that headline earnings per share (HEPS) would increase by between 57.43% and 77.43%. The enduring problem with this company is that its shares are far too thinly traded to be practical for private investors.
Overall, while Nictus shows financial stability and a significant improvement in earnings, the low liquidity of its shares poses a challenge for private investors. The company's strong capital base and lack of external debt are positives, but the thin trading volume limits the practicality of investment for those seeking more liquid opportunities.
Our opinion on the current state of COPPER360(CPR)Copper 360 describes its business as follows, "The Copper 360 business is focused on (a) processing historical mined copper rock dumps through a process of environmental clean-up, and (b) mining surface and shallow copper resources." The company has acquired (through SHIP) an extensive database from companies such as American Mining Conglomerate Newmont and Global Gold Company Gold Fields who worked the district before.
In its results for the year to 31st August 2023, the company reported a loss of R4.9 million compared with a loss of R31.6 million in the previous period. The company said, "Our loss has narrowed as production ramps up and capital expenditure comes to an end. The post-period acquisition of Nama Copper Resources Proprietary Limited ("Nama Copper") further ensures we remain on track to deliver significantly improved production with a major reduction in execution build and delivery risk. The 2025 FY will see the Company target EBITDA in excess of R650 million together with major resource upgrades to improve mining flexibility and growth."
On 21st December 2023, the company announced that it had raised a total of R274 million to fund the Nama copper acquisition and production growth at Rietberg mine. The share listed on 12th April 2023, closing at 500c. Since then, it has drifted down to 371c, which does not bode well. We suggest that this is a risky commodity operation and that you should wait for the share price to at least settle down before investigating further.
On 19th February 2023, the company announced that it had raised just less than R100 million by selling shares. On 27th March 2024, the company announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Far West Gold Recoveries. The CEO said, "Copper 360 estimates that there are approximately 50 to 60 million tonnes of dump material with grades varying between 0.18% and 1.5% copper in the dumps with the potential to contain 450,000 tonnes of copper metal in situ."
On 16th May 2024, the company announced that Shirley Hayes had been appointed as executive chairperson with immediate effect. On 24th April 2024, the company reported that it had produced 136 tons of copper concentrate from the Northern Cape and that the grade was more than 30%.
In a trading statement for the year to 29th February 2024, the company estimated that it would make a headline loss of between 10.5c and 12c per share compared with a loss of 0.27c in the previous period. Technically, the share has been moving sideways and downwards since it listed in April 2023. It is a risky commodity share and very volatile.
Overall, Copper 360 presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario typical of commodity shares. Investors should be cautious and consider the volatility and risk factors before making any investment decisions. The company's plans for growth and production improvement are promising, but it remains to be seen if they can deliver on these targets.
Our opinion on the current state of PAN-AF(PAN)Pan African Resources (PAN) is a London- and JSE-listed re-treatment gold producer. With its Elikhulu plant, it will be able to produce about 700,000 ounces of gold a year at a cost of about R450,564 per kilogram, against a current gold price of close to R1 million. This means that over its life, it will produce revenue of approximately R15 billion, of which R5.3 billion will go back into the economy in the form of mine expenses, creating a highly profitable entity with minimal risks. It will also employ 350 people. The company has approved the construction of a 10 MW solar power plant.
In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company reported gold production up 6.7% and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $1287 per ounce (against a gold price of just over $2000). Headline earnings were up 46.4% and earnings per share (EPS) was up 46.1%. The company said, "Liquidity remains healthy, with access to immediately available cash of US$31.3 million (2022: US$33.9 million) and undrawn facilities of US$86.4 million (2022: US$52.1 million) at the reporting period-end."
In a revised production guidance for the year to 30th June 2024, the company said it expected to produce between 186,000 and 190,000 ounces at an all-in-sustaining cost of between $1325 and $1350 per ounce. On 4th June 2024, the company announced that it signed a five-year wage deal with the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) for an increase of 5.3% per annum over the period.
Technically, the share has been in an upward trend since its low of 288c in June 2023. We see this as a good operation, but volatile, which means considerable risk. We would advise investors to be cautious, but with the gold price having broken convincingly above long-term resistance at $2060, it could be a good speculation.
Our opinion on the current state of RCLRCL Foods (RCL) is a large producer of food, sugar products, and chicken in South Africa, owned 80.4% by Remgro. The company owns a number of very well-known South African brands such as 5 Star maize meal, Farmer Brown, and Yum Yum peanut butter. It competes with overseas imports of sugar, chicken, and other foods. The company was impacted by the listeriosis outbreak, which damaged the market for processed meats and caused costs estimated at about R158 million. Additionally, the company has been affected by the weak economy, low consumer spending, and high unemployment.
RCL Foods, through the SA Poultry Association, is petitioning the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) for an 82% increase in the tariffs on imported chicken. On 2nd December 2020, the company announced that Remgro had increased its stake by buying 100 million shares at R8.05 each. On 29th March 2023, the company announced that it had sold Vector Logistics for R1.25 billion.
In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue up 8.4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 52.6%. The company said, "The Vector Logistics segment was classified as a discontinued operation during the second half of the previous financial year. Despite the negative impact of Avian Influenza in the current period, Rainbow delivered an improved result. Sugar's improvement was achieved, despite lower crop yields and largely attributable to higher market prices."
The company also announced that it would spin off and separately list Rainbow Chicken, which should positively affect the share. The share has been moving sideways and downwards since its peak on 9th February 2022. On 4th June 2024, the company announced that it would unbundle and separately list Rainbow Chicken. RCL shareholders will get 1 Rainbow share for every RCL share that they hold on 25th June 2024. We recommended waiting for a clear break up through the long-term downward trendline, which came on 30th April 2024 at 1050c per share. It has since moved up to 1090c.
Overall, RCL Foods appears to be in a period of transition and restructuring, which could position it well for future growth, especially with the unbundling and listing of Rainbow Chicken. However, potential investors should keep an eye on market conditions, especially the regulatory decisions regarding chicken tariffs and the overall economic climate.
Our opinion on the current state of BATS(BTI)British American Tobacco (BTI) describes itself as a "leading consumer goods company," which is a euphemistic way of saying that they produce and sell an enormous number of cigarettes and related products worldwide. It is also the second largest company on the JSE after Naspers. In recent decades, cigarette companies have become increasingly oppressed. Their ability to advertise their products and even package them has been severely curtailed in many countries. They are seen to be exploiting an addiction which is clearly anti-social and very bad for the individual's health, and which regularly involves them in lawsuits for damages.
BAT owns well-known brands like Camel, Peter Stuyvesant, Rothmans, Benson & Hedges, Dunhill, Pall Mall, Kent, and Lucky Strike. In an effort to get away from the negative perceptions of cigarettes, the company has diversified into "new category" products such as vaping and electronic cigarette markets which it claims offers it a long-term prospect for growth. Recently, especially in the United States, these products have also come under the spotlight for health reasons leading to a drop-off in sales.
As an investment, the company offers some attractions. Roughly 20% of the world's population still smokes - making a truly massive market. Setting aside our distaste for the business which BAT conducts, the share looks like very good value at current levels. This is one of the shares that has performed well and perhaps even benefited from COVID-19. The CEO says that he aims to double non-combustible sales by the 2023/24 year. It is interesting that BAT considers South Africa's illegal cigarette market to be the largest in the world.
On 6th December 2023, Business Day reported that BAT had impaired its US operations by GBP25bn (R595bn) leading to a drop of 10% in the BTI share price. In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, the company reported revenue down 1.3% and a diluted loss per share of 646.6 pence. The company said, "Strong volume led New Category revenue growth - driven by Vuse and Velo, with revenue from Non-Combustibles now 16.5% of Group revenue, up 170 bps vs FY22."
In an update on 4th June 2024, the company reported that it was on track to achieve its FY24 guidance. The company said, "We are driving a further improvement in New Category profitability through our Quality Growth focus on a more balanced top-line and bottom-line delivery. In Combustibles, U.S. commercial plans continue to gain traction despite a challenging macro-economic backdrop; in AME and APMEA we gained volume and value share, with robust H1 pricing."
The share now looks cheap to us on a P:E of 6.84.
Our opinion on the current state of MTMMomentum Metropolitan (MTM) is an insurance company listed on the JSE and the Namibian stock exchanges. It was formed by the merger of Momentum and Metropolitan in December 2010. The company participates in all aspects of short and long-term insurances and various financial services. It was the first insurance company to achieve level 1 BBBEE status. Recently, the company has been closing its businesses in Mozambique, Mauritius, Zambia, Tanzania, and Swaziland. At the time of the merger between Momentum and Metropolitan, they had a combined 24% of the life insurance market in South Africa, which has now reduced to 17%.
In the first quarter of 2021, the company paid out almost R4bn in death claims, three times higher than anticipated, mainly due to the 2nd wave of the virus. The company indicated it would consider managing with about 60% of its current office space due to the move to work-from-home as a result of COVID-19.
On 26th May 2023, Business Day reported that Jeanette Marais would take over from Hilgard Meyer as CEO on 30th September 2023. In its results for the year to 30th June 2023, the company reported net income of R125bn, up from the previous year's R70.1bn. Earnings per share (EPS) increased to 313.3c compared with 260.6c in the previous year. The company said, "During July 2022, the Group, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Metropolitan International Holdings (Pty) Ltd, disposed of its entire shareholding in Metropolitan Cannon Life Assurance Ltd and Metropolitan Cannon General Insurance Ltd. A loss on disposal of R112 million was recognised. During October 2022, the Group’s holding in Aditya Birla Health Insurance Company Ltd (ABHI) was diluted from 49% to 44.1% with the introduction of a new shareholder as a partner in the business. As a result, a gain on deemed disposal of R563 million was recognised. The Group bought back a total of 73 million shares (for a cost of R1 250 million including transaction costs) during the current year. These shares were cancelled prior to 30 June 2023."
In an operational update for the 3 months to 30th September 2023, the company reported new business premiums up 18% and a claim ratio of 66%, down from the previous period's 70%. The company said, "As at 20 November 2023, the Group had bought back 24 million shares, of which 16.5 million have been cancelled, for a total consideration of R498 million." In the nine months to 31st March 2024, the company reported recurring premium income down 15% and single premiums up 32%. Assets under management (AUM) were up 14% at R265bn.
Technically, the share has begun to move up in recent months and may be entering a new upward trend. On a P:E of 8.18 and a dividend yield (DY) of 4.89%, it looks reasonably priced to us.
Our opinion on the current state of SYGNIA(SYG)Sygnia (SYG) describes itself as a "specialist financial services group." It is South Africa's largest provider of exchange-traded funds (ETF) and has a number of unit trusts. The company has R217.7 billion under management and appears to be taking market share away from other asset managers. Sygnia Itrix makes it possible for Sygnia to attract funds looking for offshore exposure. The fact that Sygnia was able to increase assets under management during such a challenging time indicates that it has caught the attention of fund managers.
The company's revenue is a function of its ability to continue to attract funds for management. We believe that this company could be quite similar to Coronation in early 2012 when that company was relatively cheap and subsequently grew four-fold. In its results for the six months to 31st March 2024, the company reported assets under management (AUM) up 9.1% to R341.3 billion and headline earnings per share (HEPS) up 9.7%. The company said, "Group revenue for the six months to 31 March 2024 increased by 8.7% to R444.2 million (31 March 2023: R408.6 million), while total expenses rose by 8.0% to R253.8 million (31 March 2023: R235.0 million). After accounting for net interest and investment income and finance costs of R20.0 million (31 March 2023: R18.0 million), pre-tax profit amounted to R210.4 million (31 March 2023: R191.6 million)."
Technically, the share has been in an upward trend since COVID in March 2020. We see that upward trend as continuing. On a P:E of 10.31 and a dividend yield (DY) of 8.2%, it looks like good value.
Brait is not looking good and ready for another 50% crash?Inv C and H has formed, the price not only opened below the brim but opened with a Run away bearish gap.
The price is below both 20 and 200SMA>
ANd looks like the next target is set to 51 cents.
Not great but the charts don't lie.
Our opinion on the current state of MC-GROUP(MCG)MultiChoice (MCG) is a leading entertainment company in Africa and one of the fastest-growing pay-TV broadcast providers in the world with 21.1 million subscribers in 50 countries. The company's 90-day subscriber base is split 42% (8.9 million) in South Africa and 58% (12.2 million) in the rest of Africa. The share was spun out of Naspers and separately listed on the JSE on 27th February 2019.
This company is likely close to an ideal investment for private investors because its income is mostly annuity income, in the form of debit orders, with a very diverse client group. It has virtually no working capital requirements because it is essentially a service company and does not need to carry large stocks. It also does not have a large unskilled or semi-skilled workforce, although it has had union problems in the past. The potential for pay-TV in Africa appears substantial but may be eroded by 5G internet access in the future and the existence of free online access through platforms.
Icasa (Independent Communications Authority of SA), in its efforts to boost competition, is looking at changing the rules for dominance in the pay-TV market, which may impact MultiChoice. This may include changing the rules for dominance in sports coverage, which has been MultiChoice’s strongest appeal. This would impact MultiChoice’s ability to negotiate exclusive sports contracts.
The company is in the home entertainment business, which received a boost from the COVID-19 lockdowns. On 2nd March 2023, the company announced that it had entered into an agreement with Sky News and NBC Universal to enhance the Showmax service and make it dominant in Africa. In its results for the six months to 30th September 2023, the company reported revenue down 1% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 5%. The company said, "...the group's overall 90-day active subscriber base contracted by 2% (0.4m) to 21.7m. The Rest of Africa base, accounting for 60% of linear customers, grew by 1% to 13.0m. The South African business had to contend with the effects of ongoing high levels of loadshedding as 43% of the days in the reporting period were impacted by stage 4 - 6 loadshedding."
In our view, this is a solid blue-chip share which faces some challenges due to alternative products available to its subscribers. On 5th February 2024, MCG reported that Canal+ had increased its stake in MCG to 35.01%, triggering a mandatory offer at R105 per share to the remaining shareholders. The company rejected the offer as too low. On 28th February 2024, the company announced that the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) had ruled that since Canal+'s ownership of MCG had exceeded 35%, it was required to make a mandatory offer to buy out the remaining shareholders in terms of section 123 of the Companies Act (71 of 2008). On 6th March 2024, the company announced that Canal+ had increased its offer to R125 per share.
On 7th April 2024, the company announced that it had reached a cooperation agreement with Canal+ to implement the takeover. On 24th April 2024, the company announced that Canal+ had acquired 41.6% of its issued shares and it had filed the required notices with the Takeover Regulation Panel (TRP) and the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission (CIPC). On 16th May 2024, Business Day reported that Canal+ had increased its stake to 45.2%. On 4th June 2024, Canal+ made an offer of R125 per share for all the remaining shares in MC Group which it did not own.
Technically, the share had been falling since 6th March 2023 and we recommended waiting for a break up through the 65-day exponential moving average before buying. That happened on 19th December 2023 at a price of 7440c. Since then, the share has risen to 11235c.
Our opinion on the current state of AYOAYO is a black-owned technology company that was spun out of AEEI, which still holds a 49.4% stake. The company has been mired in controversy, notably due to a massive R4.3 billion investment by the Public Investment Corporation (PIC), which led to a court action by the PIC. This was finally settled on 31st March 2023, with AYO paying the PIC R619 million. Essentially, PIC pensioners appear to have lost billions of rands. AYO shares listed at R43, fell to as low as 105c, but are now around 305c after their latest results. Volumes traded are very thin, with many days where it does not trade at all. The company has 1,400 employees. Its income appeared to come from interest on the remainder of the PIC loan.
This share is difficult to assess and potentially dangerous, especially after the testimony from the former financial director, Siphiwe Nodwele, before the Mpati Commission, that the company is probably only worth R700 million, and the testimony of Naahied Gamieldien, previously the CFO, who said she had to "...adjust margins to increase the company's profit," which resulted in the profit doubling. In October 2019, the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) conducted a raid on Survé's offices as part of an ongoing investigation. FNB has closed AYO's bank accounts, citing reputational risk. AYO is opposing this in a court action and, in an announcement on 30th April 2021, claims to have put in place "alternative third-party solutions" to enable the company to continue trading.
We advise investors to stay well clear of this share until the uncertainties surrounding the Mpati commission can be resolved. On 1st June 2021, British Telecom (BT) announced that it was severing ties with Sekunjalo due to "misrepresentation of facts" before the standing committee on finance in parliament. On 10th February 2022, the JSE announced that two AYO directors had been barred from being directors of a listed company for five years due to failing to carry out their oversight duties, leading to incorrect, false, or misleading financial statements. On 22nd December 2022, the JSE published a censure of AYO for their involvement in related party transactions without complying with the JSE rules on such transactions. On 24th March 2023, the company announced that it had reached an undisclosed out-of-court settlement with the PIC, but it seems unlikely that the PIC will recover the R4.3 billion which it advanced to AYO.
In its results for the six months to 29th February 2024, the company reported revenue up by 0.19% and a headline loss per share of 33.12c compared with a loss of 79.13c in the previous period. We cannot recommend this share to private investors because we do not trust its reporting. On 6th September 2023, the JSE publicly censured a director of AYO, Khalid Abdulla, for breaching the listing requirements and failing to exercise his fiduciary duties. He was fined R2 million, and AYO was fined R6.5 million.
Our opinion on the current state of BRIKOR(BIK)Brikor (BIK) is a company that manufactures bricks, roof tiles, and clay pipes. It was listed on the Alt-X in August 2007 and describes itself as "...a diverse manufacturer and supplier of building and construction materials across a broad spectrum of the market from low-cost housing, residential to commercial, industrial, civil engineering, and infrastructure projects and has a brick and coal segment through its subsidiary, Ilangabi Investments." The company is trying to improve its BEE status.
The share was suspended on the JSE from the end of July 2013 to 31st July 2020 at 9c per share. Since it resumed trading, it has shot up to 199c before settling back to 15c. In its results for the year to 29th February 2024, the company reported revenue up 12.4% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 1.3c compared with a loss of 0.1c in the previous period. The company's net asset value (NAV) increased 7.8% to 13.9c per share.
The company said, "Revenue in the Bricks segment increased by 6.8% to R226.0 million (F2023: R211.6 million). The increase in revenue was a direct result of inflationary increases in selling prices of bricks with sales quantities being in line with the previous reporting period."
The average value of shares changing hands each day has fallen to around R7,700, which makes it impractical for private investors. The patchy revival of the construction sector since 2021 has been a positive factor. Selling bricks is a tough business in South Africa, and this company seems to have survived COVID-19, which speaks volumes for its management.
Our opinion on the current state of HUGE(HUG)Huge (HUG) is a telecommunications, media, and software company with operations in South Africa, Mozambique, Namibia, Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It has the following main operating subsidiaries: Huge Cellular (49%), Huge Networks (50.03%), Huge Technologies (100%), Huge Telecoms (100%), Huge Soho (49%), Huge Media (96%), Huge Messaging (100%), and Huge Mobile (100%). The company is involved in payment connectivity, connecting payment terminals of merchants, ATMs, points of sale, telemetry applications, micro-lending, and medical script verification.
In its results for the year to 29th February 2024, the company reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 20.5c compared with 46.38c in the previous period. The company's net asset value (NAV) was 964.54c per share. The company said, "During FY2024 no Shares were issued or repurchased during the financial year. During FY2023 Huge Telecom sold 2 732 410 Shares at an average price of R3.3787 per Share. Huge Group repurchased 500 000 Shares at an average price of R2.9580 per Share. For the year ending 29 February 2024, Huge Group’s reported net asset value is R1 582 million, representing an almost 50-fold increase over a decade and demonstrating Huge Group’s ability to create exponential value."
Technically, the share produced a textbook triple top at around R10 and has been falling since then. At the current price of 233c, the share is on a multiple of 11.37. The average daily value traded is under R10 000, which is insufficient even for a small investment.
In our view, this share has definitely not yet attracted significant institutional interest and is still trying to establish itself in a competitive and fast-changing industry. It is profitable, but its earnings are volatile.
Our opinion on the current state of MAHUBE(MHB)Mahube (MHB) is an infrastructure holding company that reversed into Gaia and is involved in large-scale energy, transport, water, and sanitation projects. It is 41.35% owned by the Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF). The company says, "Mahube Infrastructure owns five renewable energy assets – two wind farms and three solar PV (photovoltaic) farms – all of which were licensed by South Africa’s department of energy in the first round of bids of the renewable energy independent power producer procurement programme. The assets are all currently in operation, generating electricity, which they sell to Eskom in accordance with 20-year power purchase agreements."
In its results for the year to 29th February 2024, the company reported revenue of R68.2 million and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 95.85c compared with a loss of 53.68c in the previous period. The company said, "The dividend income portion of this total revenue was R50.1 million, increasing from R18.0 million in the prior year. This increase in dividend income is attributable to healthy dividends received from our investee companies, together with two of the projects paying special dividends with their respective project refinancing."
The average value trading in the share is only R5,300, which makes it impractical for private investors.
Our opinion on the current state of MAS(MSP)MAS (MSP) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in office, commercial, logistics, retail, and hospitality properties in Europe and the UK. This REIT was started by Martin Slabbert and Victor Semionov, who are well known for establishing NEPI - which merged with Rockcastle. They are highly regarded as European property experts.
The company is involved in a program to "restructure and grow" its balance sheet. This is being done by selling properties in Western Europe and buying income-generating properties with good growth potential in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The company has tripled the size of its asset base since 2016.
In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023, the company reported adjusted distributable earnings up 6% and tangible net asset value (NAV) up 10% at 1.60 euros per share. This performance was due to, "...standing retail properties' exceptional operational performance in CEE, leading to increases in passing NRI and improved asset valuations, enhanced by excellent rental and service charge collections, as well as the positive effect of DJV opening Carolina Mall on 31 August 2023." The company had a loan-to-value (LTV) of 24.3% and a collection rate of 99.6%.
In a pre-close update on 31st May 2024, the company said, "Overall, like-for-like ('LFL') footfall for the four months to 30 April 2024 was 5% above the same period in 2023, and tenants' sales per m2 exceeded prior year levels by 6%, both in enclosed malls and in open-air malls."
In our view, this is one of the better REITs on the JSE and well worth looking at if you want to buy a property stock in the rapidly expanding European property sector. Obviously, it is a rand-hedge, and it is trading well below its net asset value (NAV). On 25th January 2021, Business Day reported that the Oppenheimer family had acquired a substantial stake in MSP for approximately R500 million. When and if the Ukraine crisis is resolved, we see this share recovering rapidly.
