WHLWHL has had a respectable short term advance, which has seen the rally into it's 50-day EMA.
A 'first' re-test of a declining 50-day EMA is often an optimal level to reduce/sell.
SBK SBK has had a significant short term advance, which has seen the rally into it's 50-day EMA.
A 'first' re-test of a declining 50-day EMA is often an optimal level to reduce/sell.
Our opinion on the current state of EASTPLATS(EPS)East Plats (EPS) is a mining exploration and development company operating in the platinum group metals (PGM) and chrome markets in South Africa. Listed on both the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and the JSE, the company has three key projects:
1. **Crocodile River Mine:** Ceased operations in 2012 and is now under care and maintenance.
2. **Zandfontein Tailings Project:** Focuses on retreating and storing tailings to recover chrome, with Sound Mine Solutions conducting an independent technical report.
3. **Zandfontein Tailings Retreatment Project:** A chrome retreatment project operated with Union Goal.
On February 11, 2019, East Plats announced its first shipment of 10,000 tons of chrome concentrate from the Zandfontein operation. However, it anticipates significant cash flow uncertainties over the next year, which raises concerns about its "going concern" status. For the year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenue growth of 98.3% and earnings per share of 8 cents (US) compared to a loss of 1 cent in the previous period. Despite this, auditors highlighted concerns over the company's financial stability.
As of December 31, 2023, East Plats held cash and short-term investments worth $21,349,000 (US) but had a working capital deficit of $15,504,000 (US). The low trading volume (around R3,100 worth of shares daily) makes it difficult for private investors to participate in this stock effectively.
Our opinion on the current state of CALGRO-M3(CGR)Calgro (CGR) is a developer specializing in large-scale integrated properties, rental units, and memorial parks. Established in 1995 and listed on the JSE in November 2007, the company identifies suitable land, develops it, and then sells or rents the resulting residential or memorial park units. Recently, it secured $25 million in funding to support new development projects.
A significant challenge has been illegal land invasions, which resulted in a loss of around 25% of turnover for the half-year ending August 2019. However, in its results for the six months ending August 31, 2023, Calgro reported a 13.5% increase in revenue and headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 78.88c, up from 57c in the prior period. The company stated that it handed over 949 units during the period, compared to 1,193 units in the previous year. Currently, 2,118 units are under construction, with over half expected to be completed by February 2024. The company has 1,937 serviced units available, and another 3,398 are being serviced.
In a trading statement for the year ending February 29, 2024, Calgro estimated that HEPS would increase by 20.2% to 27.7%. The company noted a reduction in its issued ordinary shares due to a share repurchase program, which reduced the total from 121.4 million to 95.5 million shares.
Technically, the share price has been in a strong upward trend since March 2023. Like many other property companies, Calgro is currently trading well below its net asset value (NAV), presenting a potentially attractive investment opportunity.
REN.JSE Renergen Prints a Rounding Bottom.Renergen Prints a Rounding Bottom Pattern which is Bullish.
I had parked this one in my Bottom Drawer, almost gave up on any Hope.
Last had a look in early January.
Seeing the recent price action made have another look, and it's starting to look good.
Seems the recent incoming JSE Tide on Commodity Stocks could be lifting many boats.
The Chart is self Explanatory.
As always, please get a few outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
PV = FV/(1+r)^t Present Value = Future Value / (1 + R Rate of Return ) ^ Time.
SBK - Full Target ReachedSBK - Full Target Reached
I would be looking to re-enter on a pullback to the rising 8, 21-EMA range.
For more research insights, get in touch today.
Our opinion on the current state of NETCARE(NTC)The Netcare Group (NTC) operates healthcare facilities across South Africa and Lesotho. With 59 hospitals (including four public-private partnerships), it employs approximately 22,000 staff and manages 10,600 beds. Additionally, Netcare 911, its emergency response unit, operates from 79 locations with over 1,000 paramedics. While healthcare typically remains stable regardless of economic downturns due to unavoidable medical expenses, Netcare faces challenges stemming from the competitive medical aid sector, which often demands lower prices.
On March 23, 2021, Netcare received notice from the Lesotho government terminating its contract to manage Queen Mamohato Hospital in Maseru following a wildcat strike by nurses. Most Netcare hospitals are equipped with full island capacity, enabling them to operate independently of the electrical grid. They also have uninterrupted power supply (UPS) systems and over 200 backup diesel generators.
In its financial results for the year ending September 30, 2023, Netcare reported a 9.5% increase in revenue and a 36.5% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Total paid patient days (PPDs), including acute and mental health care, grew by 6.7%, with average occupancy rising to 64.4%.
An operational update covering the five months ending February 29, 2024, indicated that total PPDs increased by 0.3% compared to the previous period. Acute patient day activity remained above 94% of pre-pandemic levels, and the average acute occupancy reached 69.4% in February 2024, the highest since February 2020. Revenue per PPD increased by 6.2% in the first quarter of the fiscal year, while mental health services reported an 82.4% occupancy rate in February.
A voluntary update for the six months ending March 31, 2024, revealed a 4.2-4.4% increase in revenue. However, PPDs declined by 0.8% compared to the prior period but increased by 0.4% in the subsequent seven months up to April.
Technically, Netcare's share price has been declining since its peak at R43 in March 2015. After bottoming out at around R12 in March 2020, the share has mostly traded sideways, hitting a new low of 1,104c on May 2, 2024. It remains vulnerable, trading at a P/E ratio of 11.29, and could decline further unless it breaks above the 1,713c resistance level.
Our opinion on the current state of MONDIPLC(MNP)Mondi (MNP) is a major international paper and packaging company that originated in South Africa. It operates in over 30 countries and employs 26,000 people across roughly 100 sites. Its operations span the entire packaging value chain, managing forests and producing wood pulp, paper, and plastic films for various packaging solutions. The company has been impacted by the Ukraine conflict, given that 12% of its revenue by production location was generated in Russia. Mondi owned an integrated pulp, packaging paper, and uncoated fine paper mill in Syktyvkar (Komi Republic).
To mitigate the impact of the conflict, Mondi decided to divest its Russian operations, valued at 687 million euros in net asset value as of December 2021. The company completed the sale of its personal care business for 615 million euros in July 2022 and announced the sale of its Russian subsidiary for around R25 billion in August 2022. This divestment positively affected the share price.
In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Mondi reported an 18% decrease in revenue and a 45% decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Underlying EBITDA of 1,201 million euros was lower than the previous year's strong performance, but cash generation remained higher at 1,312 million euros. In a trading update for the three months ending March 31, 2024, the company highlighted improved market conditions and higher sales volumes. The quarter's underlying EBITDA was 214 million euros, including a 32 million euro one-time loss from the devaluation of the Egyptian pound.
Mondi remains a highly regarded blue-chip company, currently trading at a P/E ratio of 12.44. Despite the potential for further downside, the company has shown signs of a new upward trend after stabilizing from the challenges of the Ukraine crisis. The global shift to online shopping is driving demand for packaging materials, which bodes well for Mondi's growth.
In March 2024, Mondi announced its intention to acquire a 54% stake in DS Smith Plc, an LSE-listed company, for GBP 5.14 billion, further strengthening its position in the packaging industry.
$JSEAVI - AVI: Facing Resistance But Momentum To The UpsideSee link below for previous analysis.
AVI has trended upwards strongly since the last analysis, adding conviction to the Triple Bottom reversal outlook.
The stock is now facing resistance between 9000 to 9200 and a clear breakout could take the stock towards 11000cps.
I am favoring the bulls with corrections providing "buy the dip" opportunities.
Our opinion on the current state of WEBBUYCAR(WBC)WeBuyCars was recently spun off from Transaction Capital and listed separately on the JSE on April 11, 2024. This move was designed to raise capital and shield the company from the financial challenges facing Transaction Capital's taxi division. At its debut, WeBuyCars issued 417.2 million shares, opening at about R20 per share, which values the company at just over R8.5 billion. The public owns approximately 57.5% of the company’s shares, with substantial institutional investment.
The company issued a trading statement for the first half of 2024, projecting that headline earnings per share (HEPS) could range from -19.7c to -21.7c, a significant drop from 20c in the corresponding period last year. However, core headline earnings are anticipated to increase by 24% to 29%. This forecast includes R45 million in one-time costs associated with professional, legal, and JSE listing fees due to its recent public offering. Despite these initial expenses, the share price responded positively to the earnings forecast.
WeBuyCars is considered a strong blue-chip stock with potential for steady growth over time, especially given its successful market entrance and solid institutional backing.
Our opinion on the current state of LIFEHC(LHC)Life Healthcare (LHC) is a major player in the healthcare sector, listed on the JSE, operating private hospitals, day clinics, and healthcare services across South Africa, the UK, and Western Europe. The company is strategically shifting from traditional hospitals to day-clinics and non-acute services, and broadening its customer base beyond those covered by medical aids to include out-of-pocket payers. This pivot includes initiatives like MyLife Clinic, offering affordable medical consultations.
For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, Life Healthcare reported a 10.3% increase in revenue, though headline earnings per share (HEPS) fell by 16.9%. This was attributed to robust demand within its South African operations and preferred provider status with medical aids, boosting hospital utilization and services.
A recent trading update for the first half of fiscal 2024 indicated a projected EPS increase of over 20% following the sale of Alliance Medical Group. However, this transaction will not impact HEPS. Operational updates for the same period showed revenue growth of 7-8% and a 2.3% rise in paid patient days (PPD) for acute services, though normalized EBITDA from continuing operations was expected to drop by 2.3%-3.3%.
From a technical perspective, Life Healthcare's share price has been in a long-term decline since peaking at R47 in September 2014, currently trading around 1004c with a P/E ratio of 15.83. This valuation reflects anticipated improvements in performance, the defensive nature of the healthcare sector, and the company's international diversification, which offers some protection against rand volatility.
The company is also looking to expand its footprint significantly by acquiring 51 clinics in South Africa, Eswatini, and Namibia within the next year, signaling continued growth and diversification efforts. Despite a sideways trend in its share price, Life Healthcare appears to be a reasonable value proposition, especially with the resumption of dividend payments.
Our opinion on the current state of QUANTUM(QFH)Quantum (QFH) operates in the poultry industry, encompassing four divisions: Animal Feeds, Eggs and Layers, Broilers, and an African division selling related products. Despite challenges from the drought in Southern Africa, Quantum benefited from decreased animal feed prices and increased egg prices once the drought subsided. However, the chicken business remains fraught with challenges, including labor intensity, susceptibility to diseases like avian flu, and the dumping of cheap imports from Europe, Brazil, and America.
The business is highly sensitive to external disruptions such as disease outbreaks, union actions, and power outages, making it high-risk for investors. This is reflected in its low price-to-earnings (P:E) ratio and high dividend yield (DY). The company recently faced an unprotected strike at Kaalfontein Farm, costing around R10 million, and an outbreak of HPAI (avian flu) at Lemoenkloof Farm, which had a significant financial impact.
For the fiscal year ending September 30, 2023, Quantum reported a 15.5% increase in revenue but a headline loss of 17.4c per share, reversing from a profit the previous year, largely due to the impacts of HPAI. As of the four months ending January 31, 2024, the company noted improvements in margins due to reduced feed costs and less frequent power outages. However, the threat of HPAI remains a significant concern for the remainder of the financial year.
The recent sale of a 9.77% stake by Astral Foods sparked a substantial share price increase due to speculation about a potential takeover, which added to the company's volatility. Subsequently, on March 13, 2024, Country Bird Holdings (CBH) clarified that it had no plans to make a takeover bid, settling some of the speculative activity around Quantum's shares. Investors should be wary of the high level of volatility and the array of challenges that could impact Quantum's operational and financial performance.
Our opinion on the current state of MC-GROUP(MCG)MultiChoice (MCG) is a premier entertainment company in Africa and one of the fastest-growing pay-TV broadcast providers globally, boasting 21.1 million subscribers across 50 countries. The share, originally spun off from Naspers, began trading independently on the JSE on February 27, 2019. Its revenue model, primarily based on recurring debit orders, makes it an attractive investment, particularly due to its diverse customer base and minimal working capital requirements, as it operates primarily as a service company without the need for large inventory stocks.
While the potential for pay-TV growth in Africa is significant, it faces potential disruption from the rise of 5G internet access and free online content platforms. Regulatory changes proposed by the Independent Communications Authority of South Africa (Icasa) to foster competition, particularly in sports broadcasting—a key area of strength for MultiChoice—could affect the company's ability to secure exclusive sports contracts.
The COVID-19 pandemic provided a temporary boost to the home entertainment industry, benefiting MultiChoice. On March 2, 2023, the company enhanced its Showmax service through a partnership with Sky News and NBC Universal, aiming to dominate the African market. However, financial results for the six months ending September 30, 2023, showed a slight decline in revenue by 1% and a 5% decrease in HEPS. During this period, the company’s 90-day active subscriber base slightly contracted by 2% to 21.7 million, although the Rest of Africa segment saw a 1% increase to 13.0 million subscribers.
A notable development in 2024 involved Canal+, which increased its stake in MultiChoice to 35.01%, triggering a mandatory offer of R105 per share, which MultiChoice deemed too low. Subsequent offers saw Canal+'s stake increase to 42.47% by May 3, 2024. The share price, which had been declining since March 6, 2023, rebounded significantly after December 19, 2023, when it crossed the 65-day exponential moving average at 7440c, eventually climbing to 11973c.
Given these dynamics, MultiChoice stands as a robust blue-chip stock, albeit facing competitive pressures and potential regulatory changes that could impact its market dominance and pricing strategies.
Our opinion on the current state of DATATEC(DTC)Datatec (DTC) is an international IT and telecommunications company, operating across multiple continents including North America, South America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company is structured into three main divisions: Westcon International, which focuses on technology distribution; Logicalis, which handles integration and managed services; and Datatec Financial Services along with Analysys Mason, specializing in consulting and financial services. The company’s CEO, Jens Montanana, holds a significant 10% shareholding.
Recent strategic moves have included the acquisition of 70% of Cilnet, a Cisco systems integrator in Portugal, and Orange Networks in Germany, expanding Datatec’s presence on the Iberian Peninsula and in Germany. Other acquisitions include Stelacon in Sweden, Nexia in Norway, and in South Africa, Mars Technologies and Clarotech, indicating a continuous growth strategy through "bolt-on" acquisitions. A notable acquisition was Siticom in Germany, a 5G specialist, which was announced on 1st June 2021.
For the six-month period ending 31st August 2023, Datatec reported a 14.7% increase in revenue and a 34% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). However, the net asset value (NAV) per share saw a decrease of 16.1% to 210c (US). The company highlighted strong performances from its Westcon International division and improvements in Logicalis Latin America, despite challenging market conditions in Argentina and Brazil.
In the most recent trading update for the fiscal year ending on 29th February 2024, Datatec reported a 5.8% increase in group revenue, driven by a 7.6% rise in Westcon and a modest 1.5% increase in Logicalis International. The trading statement for the year projected HEPS to be between 13c and 15c (US), marking a significant improvement from a loss of 9.3c in the previous fiscal year.
The share price trajectory reflects the broader economic impacts, with a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic to approximately 2067c, followed by a rally to 4119c. However, the onset of the Ukraine crisis saw the share price dip to 3100c on 8th March 2022. Since then, the share has been on a recovery path, and the ongoing strategic acquisitions and market expansions suggest a positive outlook for continued performance.
SPP SparSPP Spar
Yesterday the share reclaimed the R100 level.
My signal came at just above R90, with my note preparing clients to buy on a dip toward the R88 to R90 level.
My original view has been inserted on the left hand side of the chart.
For more research insights, get in touch today.
Our opinion on the current state of EFORA(EEL)Efora Energy (EEL), established in 1993 and listed on the JSE in October 1994, is an African oil and gas company engaged in a range of projects spanning oil production, and midstream to downstream distribution. The company's operations extend across Egypt, Nigeria, the DRC, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Its subsidiary, Africoil, distributes 45 million liters of oil products monthly and operates two depots in Boland and Beitbridge, with the majority of its sales occurring in South Africa.
In Egypt, Efora owns the Mena International Petroleum Company, which is currently developing the Lagia oil field in the Sinai Peninsula. In the DRC, Efora holds a 68% stake in Semliki, which in turn owns 18.3% of Block III, located in the northeastern part of the country bordering Uganda. This project is still in the exploratory phase. In Nigeria, the company maintains a 50% joint venture with Energy Equity Resources (EER) for lifting and trading Nigerian oil.
For the six months ending on 31st August 2021, as reported on 27th November 2023, Efora experienced a significant downturn with revenue decreasing by 95%, and a headline loss of 0.32 cents per share, improving slightly from a previous loss of 25.08 cents. For the subsequent six months ending on 31st August 2022, the company anticipated an improvement in headline earnings per share, projecting a range between 0.68 cents and 0.74 cents, up from a loss of 0.32 cents in the earlier period.
However, Efora has faced operational challenges, evidenced by the suspension of its shares since 9th October 2020 due to delays in producing financial statements. Despite announcements made on 31st January that interim and final accounts for 2023 were expected by 28th February 2024, these documents have not been forthcoming, casting further uncertainty on the company’s financial health and operational stability.
Our opinion on the current state of GLENCORE(GLN)Glencore, one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies, manages over 150 mining, metallurgical, oil production, and agricultural facilities across more than 50 countries. The company's extensive global presence and diverse commodity portfolio make it less volatile compared to more specialized mining houses. Since the commodity cycle uptick in early 2016, Glencore has particularly benefited from owning significant cobalt resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), crucial for electric vehicle batteries. However, the DRC government's move to classify cobalt as a "strategic mineral" could lead to higher taxes.
Glencore has also been proactive in shareholder returns, initiating a $2 billion buyback of its shares. A strategic move saw Glencore acquiring Anglo American's 33% stake in the Colombian Correjon colliery for $294 million on 28th June 2021, capitalizing on heightened coal prices amid the Ukraine conflict.
In a December 2022 investor update, the company announced plans to close half of its coal mines in Australia, South Africa, and Colombia as part of its strategy to reduce its carbon footprint. This decision reflects a significant shift towards more sustainable practices amidst global climate concerns.
Financially, Glencore's 2023 year-end results indicated a decline, with revenue down by 15% and earnings per share decreasing by 74%. The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $17.1 billion and net income attributable to equity holders of $4.3 billion, evidencing robust earnings despite lower commodity prices affecting global energy trade flows.
For the first quarter of 2024, Glencore maintained its full-year production guidance, although there were declines in the production of key commodities like copper (down 2%), cobalt (down 37%), ferrochrome (down 26%), and coal (down 1%). Conversely, increases were noted in lead (up 11%), nickel (up 14%), and gold (up 7%).
Technically, Glencore's share price movement showed a "descending double top" pattern, a bearish signal where the second peak fails to rise above the first, noted in April 2024. This pattern, coupled with the failure to surpass the January 2023 high of R120, suggests potential challenges ahead. Nevertheless, the share could see further upside potential if it breaks above the R120 resistance level, contingent on broader commodity market trends and Glencore's operational efficiencies.
Our opinion on the current state of HARMONY(HAR)Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HAR), traditionally considered one of South Africa's most marginal gold mines, has taken significant strides towards enhancing its operational and financial profile. The acquisition and subsequent development of Mponeng gold mine, which is the world’s deepest mine, represent a crucial pivot in its business strategy. This mine, fraught with the challenges of ultra-deep level mining, was purchased in 2021 for R4.2bn, marking a substantial commitment to its future growth.
To complement its mining activities, Harmony is also investing in renewable energy, with plans to build a 30 MW solar park in the Free State and an additional 80 MW of green power. These initiatives underscore a broader shift towards sustainability within the mining sector.
Tragically, the company has faced significant operational challenges, including the death of four employees at Kusasalethu mine in May 2022. Such incidents highlight the ongoing safety challenges in the mining industry.
Expanding beyond South African borders, Harmony acquired the Eva copper project in Australia for R4.1bn in October 2022. This project, which is not expected to commence production for three years, promises to diversify Harmony’s production by adding 260,000 ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper to its reserves.
The financial results for the six months ending 31st December 2023 were promising, showing a 14% increase in gold production and an 18% increase in the average price received due to an 8% decline in the rand. This resulted in a significant 226% increase in headline earnings per share (HEPS), allowing Harmony to declare a dividend of 147c per share. The company highlighted the approval of the Mponeng extension project, which is expected to extend the mine's life from 7 to 20 years and improve its profitability margins.
Further updates for the nine months to 31st March 2024 indicated continued operational success with an 8% increase in recovered underground grades and a 10% rise in gold production. This performance has led to a 26% increase in gold revenue, supported by a 17% rise in the rand price of gold.
Harmony's financial position is robust, with a net cash balance of R1.544 billion as of the latest reporting period. Additionally, the recent agreement on a five-year wage deal with all its unions on 3rd April 2024 suggests stable labor relations moving forward.
Despite these positive developments, Harmony remains subject to the intrinsic risks and volatilities associated with the gold mining industry, which are closely tied to fluctuations in the international price of gold. The technical analysis suggests that the stock is in a volatile upward trend, emphasizing its nature as a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity primarily influenced by global commodity prices.
Our opinion on the current state of IMPLATS(IMP)Impala Platinum Holdings (Implats), ranked as the world's third-largest producer of platinum group metals (PGMs), has faced numerous challenges over the past seven years, including aggressive union action and legislative uncertainty. The company's strategic focus, as stated by the CEO, is on developing a portfolio of long-life, low-cost, shallow, mechanized mining assets, echoing a shift similar to that of Anglo American Platinum over the past decade.
The demand for platinum, particularly in auto catalysts for diesel trucks, has waned recently, contributing to an oversupply in the global market. However, the markets for palladium and rhodium remain robust. In an effort to boost production, Implats is expanding its operations in Zimbabwe with the Mupani shaft expected to increase production by 14% from 2022. Additionally, the company's acquisition of a Canadian operation is anticipated to further increase its output.
Recent significant developments for Implats include the acquisition of a 56.52% stake in RB Plats, following a mandatory offer, with Northam opting to sell its 34.5% holding to Implats. This acquisition marks a strategic move to consolidate its position in the industry.
Labor relations have shown signs of stabilization with the company reaching a five-year wage agreement with the Association of Mine Workers and Construction Union (AMCU) in June 2022, securing an average annual wage increase of 6.6%.
However, the company has also faced severe setbacks, such as the tragic incident at its No. 11 shaft in Rustenburg in November 2023, where 11 people died and 75 were hospitalized, highlighting ongoing operational risks.
Financially, Implats reported a decline in its latest results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, with revenue falling by 24.9% and HEPS plummeting by 77.9%. Despite an 18% increase in Group 6E production to 1.9 million ounces and a 12% rise in sales volumes, the substantial drop in PGM prices severely impacted profitability. The company emphasized that while production and sales volumes have seen notable gains and cost controls have been effective, the dramatic decline in PGM prices has significantly affected interim profitability.
In the first quarter update of 2024, Implats reported a 16% increase in 6E production volumes but noted that margins remain compressed. The company is actively pursuing measures to ensure each operation is capable of generating sustainable free cash flow throughout the PGM cycle.
Technically, the share price of Implats has been in a downward trend since March 2022, driven by the lower PGM prices, rising costs, and challenges related to load shedding. This trend underscores the volatility of the commodity sector and the high-risk nature of investing in PGM stocks like Implats.
Our opinion on the current state of ASTORIA(ARA)Astoria Investments Ltd. (ARA) is structured as an investment company with the aim of providing investors access to a diverse portfolio of equities primarily located in developed economies. After a period of suspension from September 2020 to April 2021, the company's shares have resumed trading, albeit at a price significantly below its net asset value (NAV), which is a common situation that can offer potential value to investors if the underlying assets are sound.
Astoria has benefited from diverse investments, including a noteworthy venture during periods of civil unrest where it profited from the sale of "non-lethal self-defence" products. The company holds substantial stakes in other enterprises, including one third of Outdoor Investment Holdings and 35.7% in Trans Hex, although it has divested its interest in CNA. The resumption of trading on 19th April 2021 followed the distribution of 51.15 million shares, marking a pivotal point in the company's recent history.
For the year ending 31st December 2023, Astoria reported an increase in NAV of 3.4% in rand terms, amounting to 1454c per share. The management highlighted significant growth in USD NAV per share since taking over on 1st December 2020, with an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.8%, translating into a total ZAR return of 137.6% at a CAGR of 32.4%.
However, the first quarter of 2024 presented challenges, as reflected in a headline loss per share of 115.26c, albeit an improvement over the previous period's loss of 125.31c. The NAV as of 31st March 2024 stood at 1385.02c per share, indicating a slight decline from the annual figures reported for 2023. This could be indicative of volatile market conditions or specific challenges faced by the assets within the portfolio.
One of the notable issues for potential investors is the liquidity of Astoria's shares, with only about R85,000 worth of shares traded per day on average, and frequent days with no trading activity at all. This low volume can pose significant risks when attempting to enter or exit positions and could contribute to price volatility.
Currently, the shares are under a cautionary notice, which typically indicates that there may be significant news forthcoming that could affect the stock's value. This status, combined with the share trading below NAV, suggests that Astoria could represent a good value opportunity, assuming the cautionary notice does not foretell negative developments.
Investors considering Astoria should weigh the potential for high returns against the risks of low liquidity and the ongoing uncertainty indicated by the cautionary notice. Monitoring the company’s announcements and understanding the nature of its diversified investments will be crucial for those looking to invest in Astoria.
$JSEART - Argent Industrial: The Impulse Road MapSee link below for previous analysis.
Argent has had a strong run from the 2015 bottom at 302cps.
The advance is unfolding as a five wave Impulse labelled wave (1) to (5); the stock is currently in wave 5 of (3) with wave 4 having terminated at 1101cps.
Wave 5 of (3) itself looks to be unfolding as a five wave impulse that is currently in wave {iii}; wave {iii} can extend further from current levels and there is more upside potential with wave {iv} and {v} still to come to complete wave 5 of (3).
The completion of wave (3) looks likely to take the stock to new all-time highs; a correction for wave (4) followed by one last advance for wave (5) will complete the five wave sequence.
Buy the dips is the logical strategy.
$JSEARI - African Rainbow Minerals: The Short-Mid-Term Road MapSee link below for the long-term view.
Looking at price action from 14662:
The advance to 20300 is a leading diagonal for wave 1.
The correction to 15503 is a zig zag for wave 2.
The stock is now in the early stages of wave 3 which can only be a five wave impulse.
Waves {i to v} in green give the idealized road map for wave 3.
15503 is the secondary invalidation but 14662, as the primary invalidation level, is the level which will lead to the whole invalidation of this bullish outlook should price break below it.
VODACOM GROUP (VOD)They are down nearly 40% since its peak in March 2022. This pullback mirrors similar trends observed in other South African Inc stocks. Currently, the share price has retreated to the lower trend line that has been established since 2022, finding support at R86.50. This pullback may potentially position the stock for a rebound.
Our Entry: R88.00
There are some concerns to consider:
- Upcoming earnings around the 13th of May
- Elections scheduled for the 29th of May
