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Real yield in uptrendThe weekly real yield is in uptrend, which should act as support for the USDOLLAR and as a headwind for the risk markets. This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”). Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
JSE:GFI
by FXCM
$JSEMTN - MTN: Is The Bottom Finally In? 7753 Needs To HoldSee link below for previous analysis. MTN released its FY'23 results on the 25th of March and it was a mixed bag of results. Salient features: Group service revenue grew by 6.9% (13.5%*) to R210.1bn (2022: R196.5bn) EBITDA (before once-off items) down by 0.5% (9.8%*) to R90.5bn (2022: R90.8bn) EBITDA margin lower by 3.0 percentage points (pp) to 40.9% (1.2 pp* lower to 41.5% *) Basic earnings per share (EPS) decreased by 78.5% to 227cps (2022: restated 1 054cps) Reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) down by 72.3% to 315cps (2022: restated 1 137cps); non-operational impacts decreased HEPS by 888cps Holding company (Holdco) leverage improved to 1.4x (December 2021: 0.8x) Adjusted return on equity (ROE) increased by 0.2pp to 24.4% (restated 2022: restated 24.2% ) Total subscribers increased by 2.0% to 294.8 million Final dividend declared of 330cps (2022: 330cps) These results did not deter investors much as the stock shrugged of the results and the stock trended higher in the following sessions. Technically, the reversal signals I was looking for have materialized. *The MACD gave a buy signal and has broken above the zero-line. *The five wave decline from 14299 looks complete at 7753. No matter how good the wave count looks, one can never be certain that a bottom is in but I am bullish and this outlook will only be invalidated by a break below 7753
JSE:MTNLong
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
AGLReading Time: 1 Minute On Thursday, AGL traded above R500, exceeding the R478 upside target. At current levels, the share is in a high bullish momentum phase, while also approaching an overbought range. Traders need to monitor for a deteriorating short term candle structure which could mean that the upside momentum is being lost. Failure to the previous session(s) range highs, would suggest that an ultra short term reversal is underway (possible tactical short/sell setup). The share is extended versus it's 21-DAY EMA by the most since December 2022. This shows the extent of the short term overbought conditions. In the pairs space, the LONG AGL vs SHORT KIO idea is now higher by 20%. The current chart, with the potential short term price path is shown below.
JSE:AGL
by techpers
Our opinion on the current state of MTUPreviously known as Mine Restoration, this company invests in mining resources. It owns the Langpan Project which mines and processes chrome with a high concentration of platinum group metals (PGM). The Langpan orebody consists of 3.1 million tonnes of open cast resource and over 4.9 million tonnes of underground resource, as confirmed by MSA Competent Persons report. In its results for the six months to 31st August 2023 the company reported revenue of R13m and a loss of R16m or 10c per share. The company has R63,5m worth of assets and R254m worth of liabilities. In a trading statement for the year to 29th February 2024 the company estimated that it would make headline earnings per share (HEPS) of between 0c and 1c compared with a loss of 12c in the previous year. It is an untraded, loss-making penny stock which is apparently technically insolvent. It is clearly not suitable for private investors at this time.
JSE:MTU
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of HARHarmony (HAR) is probably South Africa's most marginal gold mine. A marginal gold mine is one which has a cost of extraction which is relatively close to the current gold price. This means that small movements in the rand price of gold can have a radical impact on the mine, pushing it from profit to loss and back to profit very quickly. The result tends to be a volatile share price and a lot of uncertainty which investors generally do not like. Their margin is relatively thin and there is not much room for cost increases or a fall in the rand gold price. In the future, Harmony will be relying on the Wafi-Golpu mine in Papua New Guinea which it owns 50% of, together with Newcrest Mining. Harmony and Newcrest have signed a "memorandum of understanding" with the government of Papua New Guinea which gives the development of the mine a firm time frame. The development of this mine and its processing plant are expected to cost around US$2,8bn - and Harmony does not at this stage have its share of that cash (about R20bn). During 2021 the company purchased Mponeng gold mine for R4,2bn. Mponeng is the world’s deepest mine and has all the problems of ultra-deep level mining. The company is building a 30mw solar park in the Free State and has plans to build a further 80mw of green power. On 9th May 2022, the company announced that 4 of its employees had been killed at Kusasalethu mine. On 6th October 2022, the company announced that it had agreed to buy 100% of the Eva copper project in Australia for R4,1bn. Harmony remains a volatile, marginal gold producer and hence risky - although recent acquisitions could change its direction significantly, taking it out of precious metals. Eva is only expected to commence production in 3 years and is expected to add 260 000 ounces of gold and 1,7 billion pounds of copper to Harmony's reserves. In its results for the six months to 31st December 2023 the company reported a 14% increase in the amount of gold produced and an 8% decline in the rand leading to an 18% increase in the average price received. The result was that headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased by 226% and the company declared a dividend of 147c per share. The company said, "Mponeng extension project approved, extending mine life from 7 to 20 years and increasing margins - Hidden Valley generated operating free cash flow of R1 769 million (US$95 million), due to excellent recovered grades." On 3rd April 2024 the company announced that it had signed a wage deal with all of its unions for the next five years. Technically the share is in a volatile upward trend and remains a commodity play based on the international price of gold.
JSE:HAR
by PDSnetSA
$JSESBK - Standard Bank: Creeping Along But Losing MomentumSee link below for previous analysis. The best way to describe the ascent from the May 2020 low is creepy-crawling. SBK stock has been steady with price well supported by the mid-sloping trendline. As price has continued making higher highs, the MACD has made lower highs giving a bearish divergence signal. This does not imply a bearish reversal but that a pullback could occur, which as a first target, could take price back to the support line. I am neutral and will monitor price action and volume at the support trendline.
JSE:SBK
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSENPN - Naspers: Major Resistance AheadNaspers has found the going tough since the January 2023 peak, trading sideways in a wide range. The consolidation has not been a textbook rectangle with supporting shifting zones but the resistance has been stern around 355300 cps. The stock caught a big at 267330 and is again approaching the resistance for a third attempt to break above it. I am neutral at this point and will monitor price action and volume at the resistance zone.
JSE:NPN
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSEDSY - Discovery: At An Interesting JunctureSee link below for previous analysis. Discovery has traced out the three wave decline I forecasted after the five wave advance from 10073 to 16042. The decline is labelled as a zigzag with a triangle wave and wave is now near the support trendline of the falling channel. There is no evidence of a reversal yet. For this bullish, bigger picture ABC outlook to remain valid, wave B must terminate above 10073. I will remain neutral until price action gives signs of a reversal.
JSE:DSY
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSEJBL - Jubilee: Impulse Invalidated, Falling Wedge ContractsSee link below for previous analysis. Jubilee has continued to trade lower and having breached 128, i am tentatively abandoning the five wave count as wave (4) has penetrated the price territory of wave (1) violating one of the golden rules of an impulse. The bear market from 426 is forming a falling wedge which is bullish but price can still go lower. I will remain bearish until we get a clear breakout from the falling wedge, preferably on higher than average volume.
JSE:JBL
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
1
$JSESOL - Sasol: Bear Trend Still Intact, How Much Lower?See link below for previous analysis. Sasol has continued its strong selloff, going well below the support zone of my previous analysis. Price action is giving better Elliott Wave context. I am looking at the bear market from 43860 as a zigzag with the bounce from 13226 for wave (iv) of . The zigzag is well contained in a falling channel and a clear break out off this channel will give conviction that the bear is over. I will maintain a bearish stance until we get five waves down for wave and/or a break out off the channel.
JSE:SOLShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of OAOOando (OAO) is an oil and gas company located primarily in Nigeria. It has listings on both the JSE and the Nigerian stock exchange. The problem with a share like this from a private investor's perspective is that it is highly risky. Firstly, it is a commodity share whose fortunes are determined by the international price of oil. Secondly, its business is located in Nigeria which tends to be politically unstable. The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission suspended its shares for six months to conduct a forensic audit into allegations of corruption and insider trading which was lifted in April 2018 - but the report has yet to be published. On 3rd June 2019, the Nigerien Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a ruling in terms of which certain board members were to resign and the company was to pay a fine. The company said that the SEC's findings were without basis and immediately got a court order suspending the SEC's order. This process is very reminiscent of what happened to MTN in Nigeria. Oando's shares are also very thinly traded. From mid-October 2017 until April 2018, when not suspended, the share hardly traded at all and remained at its lows. The share has also fallen from its high of 1650c in May 2008 to its current level. Oando recently reported that it had repaid most of the $2,5bn debt which it incurred when acquiring oil and gas assets in 2014. On 1st April 2019, Business Day reported that Oando's auditors had warned that there was doubt that Oando could continue as a going concern because their liabilities exceeded their assets. On 22nd June 2022 the company published its results for the year to 31st December 2019. It reported a 6% increase in production with a 15% increase in turnover. The company made a loss of 207,1bn naira (the Nigerian currency) compared with a profit of 28,8bn naira in the previous period. The company said, "2019 witnessed the completion of our corporate strategy of divesting from our naira earning businesses to focus on a dollar-earning portfolio following the sale of our 25% residual stake in Axxela to Helios Investment Partners." On 29th March 2023 the company published its results for the 12 months to 31st December 2020 reporting turnover down 17% and an after-tax loss of 141bn naira. On 26th April 2023 the company published its results for the year to 1st December 2021 reporting a profit of 34,7m naira. The share price is now 13c - but it remains a very thinly traded, highly speculative investment. So our opinion is to leave this share well alone. On 3rd April 2024 the company announced that trade in its shares had been suspended by the JSE pending the publication of its year-end results for 2022 and its interim results for 2023.
JSE:OAO
by PDSnetSA
Sasol Ready to Reverse TrendWe have previously detailed the short position on Sasol (see linked idea), now we analyze the bullish case, Sasol price has diverged from Brent, brent is seeking a daily cycle high while Sasol is seeking a cycle low. Here we see a Hammer candle forming at the point of the 0.50 retracement of downtrend. This area is also a support level set by price as it moved out of COVID low while RSI is showing a double bottom. Indications are that price will move upwards, it is in pursuit of a yearly low. The brent chart shows price bouncing on 200 week moving average support that forms a falling wedge with the resistance. If this move plays out Sasol bulls will be happy to accumulate at current level, the implication for inflation due to sharp rising oil will be something to watch. * Risk accepting investors can buy based on reversal Hammer candle. * Risk averse investors are best to wait for full confirmation that the cycle has turned when price closes above the blue trendline as well as the 10 week moving average (also blue).
JSE:SOLLong
by runyamhere
2
Our opinion on the current state of SBKStandard Bank (SBK) is one of South Africa's oldest and largest banks, with significant operations across Africa. Despite challenges such as the impact of COVID-19 and load-shedding in South Africa, the bank has demonstrated resilience and remains an attractive investment opportunity for private investors, particularly in the long term. The bank's strategic partnerships, including its 20% ownership by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and its stake in ICBC Standard Bank, provide it with international exposure and opportunities for growth. Standard Bank's acquisition of Liberty Holdings (LBH) further enhances its market position and diversification. The offer made to Liberty shareholders represented a significant premium and demonstrates Standard Bank's confidence in its ability to create value through strategic investments. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Standard Bank reported impressive growth in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and return on equity (ROE). The bank's net asset value (NAV) also saw a notable increase, reflecting the strength and momentum of its business operations. Standard Bank's performance is supported by its robust franchise and expanding presence across Africa. The bank's operations in various African countries contribute significantly to its overall earnings, highlighting its successful penetration into key markets on the continent. From a technical perspective, Standard Bank's share price has shown resilience, with a strong upward trend observed since May 2023. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.18 and a dividend yield (DY) of 6.12%, the stock appears undervalued and offers attractive returns for investors. Overall, Standard Bank presents a compelling investment opportunity, backed by its strong financial performance, diversified operations, and strategic positioning in key markets. While short-term challenges may persist, the bank's long-term prospects remain promising, making it a favorable choice for private investors seeking stable returns and capital appreciation.
JSE:SBK
by PDSnetSA
AGLAGL note from this morning (I have also discussed several other shares for active traders). Wednesday 03 April 2024, 06h30 | AGL Anglo American Plc | Rating: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. The share has traded into it’s declining 200-day SMA. Look for for the following: An overshoot and a failure to hold the prior session highs. This would signal that the share is losing upside momentum (over the ultra short term term). For active traders, this would open an opportunity for a tactical short/sell trade.
JSE:AGL
by techpers
Our opinion on the current state of BLUBlue Label Telecoms (BLT) is a company with a significant stake in Cell-C, a telecommunications provider in South Africa. The performance of Cell-C has a substantial impact on Blue Label's overall results. Since acquiring a 45% stake in Cell-C in September 2016, Blue Label's financial performance has been closely tied to the performance of Cell-C. However, Cell-C has faced challenges, including high levels of debt and a downgrade of its credit rating by S&P Global Ratings in April 2019 due to an unsustainable capital structure. To address these challenges, Blue Label Telecoms has been actively involved in recapitalizing Cell-C. For instance, in September 2022, Blue Label announced a recapitalization plan involving a R1.03 billion injection from Bluetel, increasing its stake in Cell-C to 49.5%. This move was received positively by the market, leading to an increase in Blue Label's share price. Blue Label Telecoms has also taken steps to improve its own financial position, including achieving positive cash flows and divesting its 3G handset division to reduce debt levels. In its financial results for the six months ending November 30, 2023, Blue Label reported a decline in revenue and headline earnings per share (HEPS). The decrease in core headline earnings was primarily attributed to a decrease in the performance of Comm Equipment Company (CEC), partially offset by improvements in other entities within the group. Technical analysis indicated a break through the downward trendline for Blue Label Telecoms' share price on February 29, 2024, signaling a potential turnaround. Since then, the share price has experienced a notable increase. Additionally, the resignation of Douglas Stevenson as CEO of Cell-C in March 2023 could signal changes within the company's leadership and strategy, which might impact Blue Label Telecoms' future performance. Overall, Blue Label Telecoms' fortunes are closely tied to the performance of Cell-C, and the company's ability to navigate challenges in the telecommunications industry will be critical for its future success. Investors should monitor developments in both companies closely.
JSE:BLU
by PDSnetSA
Anglo American Plats rare metal and rare formation showing upsidBroadening Formation (Vuvuzela) and W Formation is forming on AngloPlats. We are seeing synergy with the upside with the platinum price and platinum stocks. I guess no suprise knowing they work in tandem with each other. Also, there is a good chanc eof upside with the price above both: Price>20 and Price>200 Wait for break above the necklines and we could get a Target of R1,001 Moving onto the fundamentals: The increase in Anglo American Platinum's stock price in 2024 can be connected to the broader market dynamics affecting platinum prices. Factors like a global supply deficit, driven by production challenges and rising demand from sectors such as automotive and green technologies, contribute to the metal's price increase. As Anglo American Platinum is a major producer of platinum, these market conditions likely positively impact the company's stock price by enhancing profitability prospects due to higher platinum prices.
JSE:AMSLong
by Timonrosso