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$JSEDSY - Discovery: At An Interesting JunctureSee link below for previous analysis. Discovery has traced out the three wave decline I forecasted after the five wave advance from 10073 to 16042. The decline is labelled as a zigzag with a triangle wave and wave is now near the support trendline of the falling channel. There is no evidence of a reversal yet. For this bullish, bigger picture ABC outlook to remain valid, wave B must terminate above 10073. I will remain neutral until price action gives signs of a reversal.
JSE:DSY
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSEJBL - Jubilee: Impulse Invalidated, Falling Wedge ContractsSee link below for previous analysis. Jubilee has continued to trade lower and having breached 128, i am tentatively abandoning the five wave count as wave (4) has penetrated the price territory of wave (1) violating one of the golden rules of an impulse. The bear market from 426 is forming a falling wedge which is bullish but price can still go lower. I will remain bearish until we get a clear breakout from the falling wedge, preferably on higher than average volume.
JSE:JBL
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
1
$JSESOL - Sasol: Bear Trend Still Intact, How Much Lower?See link below for previous analysis. Sasol has continued its strong selloff, going well below the support zone of my previous analysis. Price action is giving better Elliott Wave context. I am looking at the bear market from 43860 as a zigzag with the bounce from 13226 for wave (iv) of . The zigzag is well contained in a falling channel and a clear break out off this channel will give conviction that the bear is over. I will maintain a bearish stance until we get five waves down for wave and/or a break out off the channel.
JSE:SOLShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
Our opinion on the current state of OAOOando (OAO) is an oil and gas company located primarily in Nigeria. It has listings on both the JSE and the Nigerian stock exchange. The problem with a share like this from a private investor's perspective is that it is highly risky. Firstly, it is a commodity share whose fortunes are determined by the international price of oil. Secondly, its business is located in Nigeria which tends to be politically unstable. The Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission suspended its shares for six months to conduct a forensic audit into allegations of corruption and insider trading which was lifted in April 2018 - but the report has yet to be published. On 3rd June 2019, the Nigerien Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a ruling in terms of which certain board members were to resign and the company was to pay a fine. The company said that the SEC's findings were without basis and immediately got a court order suspending the SEC's order. This process is very reminiscent of what happened to MTN in Nigeria. Oando's shares are also very thinly traded. From mid-October 2017 until April 2018, when not suspended, the share hardly traded at all and remained at its lows. The share has also fallen from its high of 1650c in May 2008 to its current level. Oando recently reported that it had repaid most of the $2,5bn debt which it incurred when acquiring oil and gas assets in 2014. On 1st April 2019, Business Day reported that Oando's auditors had warned that there was doubt that Oando could continue as a going concern because their liabilities exceeded their assets. On 22nd June 2022 the company published its results for the year to 31st December 2019. It reported a 6% increase in production with a 15% increase in turnover. The company made a loss of 207,1bn naira (the Nigerian currency) compared with a profit of 28,8bn naira in the previous period. The company said, "2019 witnessed the completion of our corporate strategy of divesting from our naira earning businesses to focus on a dollar-earning portfolio following the sale of our 25% residual stake in Axxela to Helios Investment Partners." On 29th March 2023 the company published its results for the 12 months to 31st December 2020 reporting turnover down 17% and an after-tax loss of 141bn naira. On 26th April 2023 the company published its results for the year to 1st December 2021 reporting a profit of 34,7m naira. The share price is now 13c - but it remains a very thinly traded, highly speculative investment. So our opinion is to leave this share well alone. On 3rd April 2024 the company announced that trade in its shares had been suspended by the JSE pending the publication of its year-end results for 2022 and its interim results for 2023.
JSE:OAO
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of SBKStandard Bank (SBK) is one of South Africa's oldest and largest banks, with significant operations across Africa. Despite challenges such as the impact of COVID-19 and load-shedding in South Africa, the bank has demonstrated resilience and remains an attractive investment opportunity for private investors, particularly in the long term. The bank's strategic partnerships, including its 20% ownership by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and its stake in ICBC Standard Bank, provide it with international exposure and opportunities for growth. Standard Bank's acquisition of Liberty Holdings (LBH) further enhances its market position and diversification. The offer made to Liberty shareholders represented a significant premium and demonstrates Standard Bank's confidence in its ability to create value through strategic investments. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Standard Bank reported impressive growth in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and return on equity (ROE). The bank's net asset value (NAV) also saw a notable increase, reflecting the strength and momentum of its business operations. Standard Bank's performance is supported by its robust franchise and expanding presence across Africa. The bank's operations in various African countries contribute significantly to its overall earnings, highlighting its successful penetration into key markets on the continent. From a technical perspective, Standard Bank's share price has shown resilience, with a strong upward trend observed since May 2023. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.18 and a dividend yield (DY) of 6.12%, the stock appears undervalued and offers attractive returns for investors. Overall, Standard Bank presents a compelling investment opportunity, backed by its strong financial performance, diversified operations, and strategic positioning in key markets. While short-term challenges may persist, the bank's long-term prospects remain promising, making it a favorable choice for private investors seeking stable returns and capital appreciation.
JSE:SBK
by PDSnetSA
AGLAGL note from this morning (I have also discussed several other shares for active traders). Wednesday 03 April 2024, 06h30 | AGL Anglo American Plc | Rating: High Bullish Momentum / Approaching Overbought. The share has traded into it’s declining 200-day SMA. Look for for the following: An overshoot and a failure to hold the prior session highs. This would signal that the share is losing upside momentum (over the ultra short term term). For active traders, this would open an opportunity for a tactical short/sell trade.
JSE:AGL
by techpers
Our opinion on the current state of BLUBlue Label Telecoms (BLT) is a company with a significant stake in Cell-C, a telecommunications provider in South Africa. The performance of Cell-C has a substantial impact on Blue Label's overall results. Since acquiring a 45% stake in Cell-C in September 2016, Blue Label's financial performance has been closely tied to the performance of Cell-C. However, Cell-C has faced challenges, including high levels of debt and a downgrade of its credit rating by S&P Global Ratings in April 2019 due to an unsustainable capital structure. To address these challenges, Blue Label Telecoms has been actively involved in recapitalizing Cell-C. For instance, in September 2022, Blue Label announced a recapitalization plan involving a R1.03 billion injection from Bluetel, increasing its stake in Cell-C to 49.5%. This move was received positively by the market, leading to an increase in Blue Label's share price. Blue Label Telecoms has also taken steps to improve its own financial position, including achieving positive cash flows and divesting its 3G handset division to reduce debt levels. In its financial results for the six months ending November 30, 2023, Blue Label reported a decline in revenue and headline earnings per share (HEPS). The decrease in core headline earnings was primarily attributed to a decrease in the performance of Comm Equipment Company (CEC), partially offset by improvements in other entities within the group. Technical analysis indicated a break through the downward trendline for Blue Label Telecoms' share price on February 29, 2024, signaling a potential turnaround. Since then, the share price has experienced a notable increase. Additionally, the resignation of Douglas Stevenson as CEO of Cell-C in March 2023 could signal changes within the company's leadership and strategy, which might impact Blue Label Telecoms' future performance. Overall, Blue Label Telecoms' fortunes are closely tied to the performance of Cell-C, and the company's ability to navigate challenges in the telecommunications industry will be critical for its future success. Investors should monitor developments in both companies closely.
JSE:BLU
by PDSnetSA
Anglo American Plats rare metal and rare formation showing upsidBroadening Formation (Vuvuzela) and W Formation is forming on AngloPlats. We are seeing synergy with the upside with the platinum price and platinum stocks. I guess no suprise knowing they work in tandem with each other. Also, there is a good chanc eof upside with the price above both: Price>20 and Price>200 Wait for break above the necklines and we could get a Target of R1,001 Moving onto the fundamentals: The increase in Anglo American Platinum's stock price in 2024 can be connected to the broader market dynamics affecting platinum prices. Factors like a global supply deficit, driven by production challenges and rising demand from sectors such as automotive and green technologies, contribute to the metal's price increase. As Anglo American Platinum is a major producer of platinum, these market conditions likely positively impact the company's stock price by enhancing profitability prospects due to higher platinum prices.
ALong
by Timonrosso
Old Mutual: Bears Reaching End of ChannelOld Mutual is seeking a low on the long-term time frame. Currently bouncing off support. More risk accepting investors can accumulate at these levels as weekly swing low is confirmed, longer term traders can wait for a swing low confirmation on a monthly basis. The target profit from this move is at least 25% at which point a downtrend can be expected to resume targeting a break of support before finding the ultimate bottom in 2023.
JSE:OMULong
by runyamhere
6
Our opinion on the current state of ASCAscendis Health (ASC) is a South African company with operations in health products for animals, plants, and humans. Over recent years, the company has undergone significant restructuring efforts to address its financial challenges and refocus on its core businesses. In January 2020, Ascendis Health emphasized the importance of its asset Remedica to the group's earnings and margin growth. However, by January 2021, negotiations began with L1 Health and Blantyre Capital for a recapitalization deal to address the company's debt. This deal, finalized in May 2021, involved the exchange of debt for ownership of various assets, including Remedica. Subsequent to shareholder approval in October 2021, Ascendis Health sold its animal health division in July 2021, generating proceeds to reduce its debt burden. Following these recapitalization efforts, the company is contemplating delisting from the JSE. In its financial results for the six months ending December 31, 2023, Ascendis Health reported a decrease in revenue but a significant improvement in headline earnings per share (HEPS) compared to the previous period, indicating progress in its financial performance. Notably, the reduction in interest paid was attributed to the repayment of outstanding term loan debt. From a technical standpoint, Ascendis Health's share price has been relatively flat since its peak in October 2016, showing no clear signs of a new upward trend. However, the announcement of a firm intention by a consortium to acquire all shares of the company at 80c per share and delist from the JSE caused a spike in the share price to match the offer price. Overall, Ascendis Health's recent initiatives aimed at reducing debt and refocusing its operations signal efforts to stabilize the company's financial position. However, the potential delisting and the volatile nature of its share price make it a risky investment, subject to the success of its restructuring efforts and the terms of any acquisition deal.
JSE:ASC
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of BELBell (BEL) is a prominent manufacturer and distributor of heavy equipment, specializing in earth-moving machinery for industries such as mining, construction, agriculture, and waste management. The company, which produces articulated dump trucks exported globally from South Africa and Germany, has faced challenges due to the slowdown in construction since 2008 and the decline of the mining industry. Despite these challenges, Bell has maintained a diversified product range, with dealerships for various global manufacturers, offering over 120 products. Approximately 60% of its business comes from international markets, with the company employing 3,200 people, primarily in South Africa. Recently, CEO Gary Bell hinted at the possibility of delisting the company, with 1A Bell expressing interest in acquiring a further 31.4% stake at a discounted price of R10 per share. This move sparked discussions among minority shareholders, who argue that the board has a fiduciary duty to consider all options, including selling the company to the highest bidder. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Bell reported robust performance, with revenue increasing by 32% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) rising by 69%. The company's net asset value (NAV) also saw a significant increase, rising by 21% to 5527c per share. With an average daily trading volume of over R1 million, Bell's shares are actively traded, making them suitable for private investors. An on-balance-volume (OBV) buy signal was observed on September 7, 2023, at 1752c per share, and since then, the share price has appreciated to 2480c. This positive momentum suggests growing investor confidence in Bell's prospects.
JSE:BEL
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of EUZEuropa (EUZ) is a European metals developer primarily operating in Spain, where it focuses on mining lead, zinc, and silver. The company owns 100% of the Toral project located in Leon Province, holding a 3-year investigation permit. Following the completion of a comprehensive scoping study in December 2018, Europa has been advancing towards a full feasibility study through infill drilling in high-grade areas. Despite being included in the JSE's fledgling index, Europa recently applied to delist from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASE) and move its listing from the JSE's main board to the Alt-X. In its financial results for the six months ending December 31, 2023, the company reported an after-tax loss of A$248,761, an improvement from the loss of A$1.2 million in the previous period. Europa highlighted its ongoing drilling campaign focused on confirmatory and infill drilling within the project's known indicated resource area, which comprises approximately 7 million tonnes at 8.1% Zinc Equivalent, including lead credits, 5% zinc, 3.7% lead, and 29g/t silver. Europa's stock is considered a penny stock, typically oscillating between 47c and 80c on thin volumes. As the company does not yet have a productive mine, it is considered highly risky for investors. The stock has shown significant volatility, including a strong on-balance volume (OBV) buy signal at 52c on July 17, 2020, which propelled the share price to 191c before retreating. Currently trading at 25c, the share remains volatile, unpredictable, and challenging to evaluate. Investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before considering an investment in Europa.
JSE:EUZ
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of RNGRangold (RNG) operates as a mining exploration company with a substantial asset base, primarily consisting of cash reserves. The company has been actively pursuing legal claims and seeking investment opportunities with its asset base. Following the death of Brett Kebble, Rangold has focused on pursuing various legal claims against entities it believes owe it compensation. Over the years, the company has achieved some success in these legal battles, resulting in significant settlements. For instance, in early 2011, Rangold paid a dividend of 90 cents per share due to a British court order against Paul Main, compelling repayment of GBP 4 million. Similarly, in July 2014, the company distributed a dividend of 225 cents per share following a R150 million settlement with auditors PwC. Despite these successes, Rangold still has several legal matters pending, which could potentially result in further settlements totaling around R3 billion. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Rangold reported a headline loss of 32 cents per share, compared to a loss of 23.11 cents per share in the previous period. It's worth noting that Rangold's shares are thinly traded, and the stock has been drifting down on low volumes for many years. This illiquidity and downward drift may pose challenges for investors considering investing in Rangold. In conclusion, Rangold operates as a mining exploration company with a focus on pursuing legal claims and exploring investment opportunities. While the company has achieved some success in legal battles, its financial performance and illiquid shares may deter potential investors. Therefore, investing in Rangold warrants careful consideration and assessment of its risk factors.
JSE:RNG
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of WKFWorkforce (WKF) operates as a diversified labor broker, providing services in recruitment, specialist staffing, training, consulting, employee health management, and the sale of financial and insurance products. The company faced a significant legal challenge with the "Assign" case, which clarified the status of temporary employees and legitimized the labor broking industry. Despite the legal clarity, Workforce has encountered challenges, including the need to reduce staff by 10% to 15%. However, the company has diversified its offerings away from labor broking into insurance and other products, which has helped mitigate some risks. In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Workforce reported a 4% increase in revenue. However, the company experienced a headline loss of 13.3 cents per share, a stark contrast to the profit of 46.8 cents per share in the previous period. Workforce attributed this performance to a harsh operating environment, where increased overheads outpaced revenue growth. One challenge for private investors considering investing in Workforce is the liquidity of its shares. Only 8% of its issued shares are available to the public, and trading occurs sporadically. Given this illiquidity, it may not be practical for private investors to invest in the company's shares. In conclusion, while Workforce has diversified its services and faced legal challenges, its financial performance and illiquid shares pose challenges for private investors. Therefore, investing in Workforce may not be advisable due to these factors.
W
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of YRKYork Timber Holdings (YRK) is a forestry company deeply entrenched in South Africa's plywood and timber market, with operations spanning plantations, processing plants, and a wholesaling distribution network. Established in 1916 by Russian immigrant Herman Katzenellenbogen, the company went public on the JSE in 1946, solidifying its position in the industry over the decades. Despite its longstanding presence, York Timber has faced challenges, particularly in navigating the downturns in the construction industry stemming from the global financial crisis in 2008. This has been reflected in its share price performance, which has mostly trended downward or remained stagnant since reaching a peak in July 2007 at R40 per share. Recent events have further compounded York Timber's struggles. A strike at its Escarpment operations, which contribute significantly to the company's revenue, was announced on May 13, 2022, impacting production. Additionally, the company's announcement on December 5, 2022, regarding a rights issue to raise R250 million led to a sharp drop in its share price. In its financial results for the six months ending December 31, 2023, York Timber reported a 2% decline in turnover and a significant decrease in headline earnings per share (HEPS) to 4.67c compared to 13.27c in the previous period. Factors such as high raw material prices and unreliable log supply from the South African Forestry Company (SAFCOL) were cited as contributors to the unfavorable results. Trading activity for York Timber shares averages around R89,000 per day, making it feasible for small investments by private investors. However, the stock remains volatile, particularly due to its ties to the construction industry. From a technical standpoint, the share price has been on a downward trajectory since the beginning of 2022. Given its volatility and market conditions, investors may want to wait for a clear breakout above its downward trendline before considering further investment. In conclusion, York Timber Holdings faces challenges amidst a challenging economic environment and industry-specific issues. Investors should carefully monitor the company's performance and market conditions before making investment decisions.
JSE:YRK
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of SFNSasfin (SFN) is a banking group that focuses on providing various financial services tailored for small businesses and high net-worth individuals. Established in 1987 and listed on the JSE, Sasfin has been actively investing in its digital platforms and pursuing strategic acquisitions to enhance its offerings. Despite its efforts, Sasfin's share price had been on a downward trend, prompting investors to await a clear signal of a turnaround, such as an upside break through its long-term trendline. While the impact of COVID-19 hindered this recovery, there have been indications of improvement in the share's performance. A notable development occurred on October 16, 2023, when Sasfin announced its agreement to dispose of its capital equipment finance and commercial property finance businesses to African Bank Limited, leading to a sharp rise in the share price. However, on February 27, 2024, Sasfin faced a setback as it received a civil summons from the South African Revenue Services (SARS) for a significant damages claim related to alleged tax liabilities of former foreign exchange clients. In its financial results for the six months ending December 31, 2023, Sasfin reported a notable decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS), down by 62.39%. This decline was attributed to negative adjustments to the group's fair value loans and private equity portfolio, along with increased credit impairments, reflecting the challenging economic environment for businesses in South Africa. Despite these challenges, Sasfin managed to achieve a modest increase in its net asset value (NAV) by 4.09% to 5191 cents per share. It's worth noting that Sasfin's shares are thinly traded, with relatively low liquidity, as indicated by an average daily trading volume of about R110,000. This limited liquidity may impact the accessibility of the stock for individual investors. In summary, Sasfin faces various challenges, including legal disputes and economic headwinds, which have influenced its financial performance and share price dynamics. Investors should carefully monitor developments and assess the company's ability to navigate these challenges effectively before considering investment opportunities.
S
by PDSnetSA
Our opinion on the current state of EOHTelemasters (TLM) operates in the telecommunications sector, providing voice, data, and cloud communication services through various technologies and divisions. The company's offerings include fixed line, fixed cellular, fixed data, and PBX services, catering primarily to medium and small enterprises. Telemasters comprises several divisions, each focusing on specific aspects of ICT solutions and services: 1. Catalytic Connections (Pty) Limited: This division offers diversified ICT managed solutions targeted at medium and small enterprises. 2. Contineo Virtual Communications (Pty) Limited: It operates a Next Generation Unified Communications (UC) platform based on Cisco Broadsoft technology, providing advanced communication solutions. 3. PerfectWorx Consulting (Pty) Limited: This division specializes in network systems integration, offering niche services in this domain. 4. Ultra Data Centre (Pty) Limited: Telemasters owns and operates a data center located outside of Pretoria, catering to the growing demand for data storage and management services. In its financial results for the six months ending on December 31, 2023, Telemasters reported a slight decline in revenue but managed to achieve positive headline earnings per share (HEPS) compared to a loss in the previous period. The company highlighted the maintenance of a gross profit margin of 56% and efficient cost control measures resulting in a decrease in operational expenses. However, Telemasters' shares are thinly traded, with limited liquidity in the market, as a significant portion of the shares is held by a single shareholder, the Maison D-Obsession trust. This limited trading volume may make it impractical for private investors to actively participate in buying or selling shares of Telemasters. Overall, while Telemasters operates in a vital sector and has reported improved financial performance, its low liquidity and concentrated ownership structure may pose challenges for individual investors looking to engage with the company's shares.
JSE:TLM
by PDSnetSA
$JSEBWN - Balwin Properties: New All Time Low LoomingSee link below for previous analysis. The previous analysis was quickly invalidated; this is why we use stop-losses! The stock has been trending downwards for over three years now and looks likely to set a new all time low below 128. A break above the upper resistance trendline would give an early signal for a potential reversal but there is no sign of bullishness yet. I will remain short until I get contrary evidence.
JSE:BWNShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
$JSEMKR - Montauk Renewables: Down, Down, Down, She GoesSee link below for previous analysis. Montauk recently released it FY'23 annual results and they were not pretty. The renewable-energy company posted fiscal 2023 earnings of $14.9 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $35.2 million, or 25 cents a share, in the same quarter last year. Analysts polled by FactSet were looking for earnings of $20 million, or 15 cents a year. Revenue for 2023 was $174.9 million, down from last year's $205.6 million and below the $185 million analysts were expecting. The company said lower prices for natural gas and renewable identification numbers, used to track renewable transportation fuels, resulted in lower revenue for the year. For 2024, Montauk expects renewable natural gas revenue to be $195 million to $215 million, and expects RNG production volumes of 5.8 million to 6.1 million MMBtu, above this year's RNG production of 5.5 million MMBtu. Technically, the big bear Elliott Wave pattern looks to be unfolding as a zig zag with the stock in wave 3 of (C). I will maintain a bearish stance until the completion of wave 5 of (C).
JSE:MKRShort
by Loyiso_BlaqueSoros_Mpeta
1