Pepkor My expectations is that at the end of this year pepkor share will be R24 Or more than that 📈📊🫴🏽🫳🏽
Our opinion on the current state of CLIENTELE(CLI)Clientele Life (CLI) is a small insurance company that offers short- and long-term policies and underwrites insurance products. These products are sold through agents, brokers, and tele-sales. On 3rd November 2023, the company announced its acquisition of 1Life Insurance for R1.914 billion, paid through the issuance of 117,815,756 ordinary shares in Clientele.
In its results for the year ending 30th June 2024, Clientele reported a 4% decline in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and net profit. The company stated, "The total net insurance service result increased by 4% to R171.6 million. The total net investment result of R254.9 million is double the prior year figure. Net insurance finance income is 19% higher than the prior year at R207.3 million. Revenue from contracts with customers increased by 11% to R380.4 million."
Clientele Life trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.3, which appears relatively cheap. The share is also heavily traded enough to accommodate most private investors. In our view, the share continues to offer reasonable value at this P/E ratio. It stands to benefit from an improving South African economy, particularly with the formation of the newly appointed government of national unity (GNU).
Our opinion on the current state of INVLTD(INL)Investec (INL) operates as a specialist bank and asset manager in South Africa, Australia, Europe, the UK, and several other countries. Over the past four years, Investec shares have faced pressure due to Brexit in the UK. However, the decision to separately list its asset management division as Ninety-One has unlocked shareholder value, which is becoming more evident as the pandemic is brought under control. One of Ninety-One’s major challenges has been to convince investors of its international asset management capabilities, beyond being seen as primarily a South African play.
Investec is targeting high-net-worth clients with annual incomes of at least GBP300,000 and assets of at least GBP3 million. The company currently has about 6,000 such clients and aims to grow this to 9,000. Investec distributed 15% of its shares in Ninety-One to shareholders and retained 10%.
In its results for the year ending 31st March 2024, Investec reported a 13.4% increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue of GBP2.09 billion, up from GBP1.99 billion. Assets under management (AUM) grew by 5.5% to GBP20.9 billion, and the company repurchased R6.8 billion worth of its own shares on the market.
In a trading statement for the six months to 30th September 2024, Investec estimated that headline earnings per share (HEPS) would range between 1.4% lower and 3.5% higher than the previous period. The company stated that the prior period's results were positively impacted by the net gain from the UK Wealth & Investment combination with Rathbones, which was partially offset by the effects of Burstone's deconsolidation and the amortisation of intangible assets related to the Rathbones combination in the current period.
Technically, Investec shares are in a strong upward trend, which is expected to continue. Trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.72 and offering a dividend yield (DY) of 4.81%, the share is considered under-valued among blue-chip companies listed on the JSE. It is expected to continue performing well going forward.
Our opinion on the current state of WESIZWE(WEZ)Wesizwe (WEZ) is a miner of platinum group metals (PGMs) through its development of the Bakubung Platinum Mine (BPM). The company is working on a project to access the Merensky and Upper Group 2 (UG2) resources. The mine is located near Rustenburg on the Western limb of the Bushveld Complex. Wesizwe also holds a 17.1% stake in projects 1 and 3 of Maseve Investments.
In its results for the year ending 31st December 2023, the company reported a headline loss per share of 1.36c, an improvement compared to a loss of 8.24c in the previous year. The company noted, "The Group’s cash resources at the reporting date of R227.9 million (2022: R342.6 million) are not sufficient, based on current budgets, to conduct operations and complete the development of the BPM Project. The Group’s current liabilities, including shareholder’s loans of R3 017.4 million (2022: R5 634.3 million), exceed current assets by R3.5 billion (2022: R5.6 billion)."
In an operational update on 9th September 2024, Wesizwe stated, "During the hot commissioning of the concentrator plant, certain defects were identified in the plant which required rectification." Additionally, Section 189 consultations relating to a possible restructuring of the Bakubung Platinum Mine were underway. The company anticipates that underground mining will ramp up to approximately 83ktpm by Q4 2025.
In a trading statement for the six months ending 30th June 2024, the company estimated headline earnings per share (HEPS) to be between 1.4c and 13.32c, compared with a loss of 59.63c in the previous period. This increase was mainly attributed to unrealised foreign exchange gains on foreign-denominated loans.
Wesizwe's shares trade about R150,000 worth on average daily, making it a viable option for small private investors. However, it is a marginal precious metals company and is heavily dependent on the volatility of PGM prices, which makes it a risky investment. The share price has dropped significantly, from a high of 197c in October 2021 to around 55c following recent results. Given the risks involved, there may be better options available in the PGM market for investors.
Our opinion on the current state of BYTES(BYI)Bytes Technology was spun out of Altron and separately listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the JSE. At the time of listing, it had a market capitalisation of approximately R13 billion, which has since grown to R26.5 billion. Altron shareholders received GBP 542 million in shares and cash during the demerger, representing a significant release of value.
Bytes Technology describes itself as "one of the UK's leading software, security, and cloud services specialists." It is the largest reseller of Microsoft products in the UK and derives about 60% of its revenue from annuity-based contracts. In its results for the year ending 29th February 2024, the company reported a 26.7% increase in gross income and a 15.8% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The company highlighted that, "The exceptional level of growth was underpinned by strategically important contract wins in the public sector (most notably with the NHS and HMRC) and by continued demand from corporate customers. Revenue increased 12.3% to £207.0 million (2022/23: £184.4 million)."
In a trading update for the first half of 2024, Bytes Technology stated that "Gross Invoiced Income and Adjusted Operating Profit growth was comfortably in the double digits at circa 13.5% each, and Gross Profit growth was circa 9%."
Technically, the share rose sharply to a cycle high of 16,100c on 25th January 2024. It is expected that the share will surpass this high in the near future. As a solid rand-hedge, the company is positioned to perform well going forward.
On 21st February 2024, Bytes Technology announced the resignation of its CEO, Neil Murphy, with immediate effect. He has been replaced by Sam Mudd.
Our opinion on the current state of CLIENTELE(CLI)Clientele Life (CLI) is a small insurance company that sells short- and long-term policies and underwrites insurance products. Their offerings are distributed through agents, brokers, and tele-sales. On 3rd November 2023, the company announced its acquisition of 1Life Insurance for R1.914 billion, to be paid through the issuance of 117,815,756 ordinary shares in Clientele.
In its results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, Clientele reported a 35% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a return on shareholders' interest of 9%. The company stated, "Insurance revenue is 5% lower than the previous period at R972.5 million (2022: R1 billion), mainly as a result of a lower release of the Contractual Service Margin ("CSM") and Risk Adjustment ("RA"). Higher than expected withdrawal experience in the 2023 financial year ending 30 June 2023 resulted in a downward adjustment to the CSM compared to the restated prior period."
In a trading statement for the year ending 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would fall by between 30% and 35%. However, the company noted, "As a counterpart to the negative variances above, the impact of IFRS 17 is also expected to result in an increase in the Group's Net Asset Value to between R1.8 billion and R2.4 billion. The Group remains in a sound solvency and liquidity position and has continued to generate strong positive cash flows."
The share trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.2, which seems reasonably priced. The share is also actively traded enough to attract private investors. In our view, Clientele Life continues to represent good value at the current P/E ratio and is well-positioned to benefit from any improvement in the South African economy, especially in light of the newly appointed government of national unity (GNU).
Our opinion on the current state of DISCOVERY(DSY)Discovery (DSY), developed and built by Adrian Gore over the past 25 years, offers the A/B income group a matrix of inter-linked financial services, enabling significant cross-selling opportunities. Customers can start with medical aid and then add a variety of insurance products and, most recently, personal banking services.
Discovery's "Vitality" concept, which rewards clients for maintaining their health, has been extended to include their driving record and a rewards system that provides attractive benefits for those who opt for the full range of Discovery’s debit-order products. The Vitality platform tracks over 1000 customer activities and 50 biometrics a minute using the Apple watch in South Africa, the UK, China, Europe, and the US to support healthy aging and retirement planning.
Discovery's Chinese venture, Ping An Health, in which it holds a 25% stake, experienced a 60% membership growth over the year, with written premiums increasing by 87% to $753 million. Ping An is quickly becoming Discovery's "Tencent," reflecting its rapid development and potential. Discovery’s foray into banking, approved in November 2017, offers clients a range of banking and credit card facilities and is expected to significantly enhance group profits over time. This disruptive move is set to attract A/B income group consumers away from traditional banks. Discovery Bank's initial goal was to secure 1,000 new accounts daily from August 2019.
Despite challenges during the pandemic, including a slowdown in progress, Discovery Bank now boasts 700,000 active clients, most of whom are considered high-quality. Discovery has also benefited from fewer car accident and medical insurance claims during lockdown periods. While Discovery shares remain expensive, the company is highly regarded, particularly for long-term growth, making it one of the best shares for private investors.
CEO Adrian Gore emphasizes that "opportunities are not in good times," demonstrating his belief in investing during tough periods like the current economic challenges in South Africa. Gore has also voiced concerns over the National Health Insurance (NHI) proposal, stating that it is unaffordable for the country and that there are insufficient medical resources to implement it. Discovery was the first large, listed company to require all staff to be vaccinated.
On 20th June 2022, the bank announced it had surpassed 1 million accounts and was onboarding approximately 750 new accounts daily. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, Discovery reported a 14% increase in headline earnings per share (HEPS) and a 16% rise in net asset value (NAV). The company stated, "Discovery Group achieved strong growth in the year ended 30 June 2024, with normalised operating profit up 17% to R11.6 billion, headline earnings up 7% to R7.2 billion, normalised headline earnings up 15% to R7.3 billion, and core new business annualised premium income (API) up 18% to R26.7 billion."
Technically, Discovery's share has been in an upward trend since June 2024. Given its strong management and innovative business model, Discovery is seen as a "must-have" share for any private investor's portfolio.
Our opinion on the current state of GTCSA(GTC)GTC is a property group operating in Central and Eastern Europe. The company has properties in Poland, Bucharest, Budapest, Belgrade, Sofia, and Zagreb. It manages forty-seven office buildings and six retail properties with a gross lettable area (GLA) of 829,000 square meters, valued at approximately 2.35 billion euros. The company is listed on both the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) and the JSE.
In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported rental revenue up by 3% and an occupancy rate of 86%. The company's loan-to-value (LTV) ratio stood at 48.2%. GTC noted that, while the direct impact of the war in Ukraine on the Group’s operations is not material, it remains difficult to predict the future scale of the impact due to high volatility. The company is closely monitoring the situation and analyzing its potential impact on individual projects, as well as the entire Group and its long-term investment plans.
On 19th September 2024, GTC reported that its headline earnings per share (HEPS) for the six months to 30th June 2024 was 5 euro cents, compared to 11 cents for the period ending 31st December 2023. Unfortunately, the share on the JSE is extremely thinly traded, making it impractical for private investors.
Our opinion on the current state of MUSTEK(MST)Mustek (MST) is South Africa's largest assembler of personal computers under its brand name Mercer. It also imports a variety of computer products, including Samsung, Acer, and Microsoft. The company consistently trades well below its net asset value (NAV).
Mustek is beginning to benefit from its fibre-to-the-home activities and is selling additional hardware as a result. The CEO, David Kan, is very excited about the exploitation of the fibre-to-the-home market. He believes there can be exponential growth of as much as 500% in their sales of cables for this market. There is also a possibility that the company will benefit from the increased demand for remote education and work-from-home solutions following COVID-19. Mustek is well-positioned to exploit this through its existing products.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue down 16% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 82.1%. The company stated, "Prevailing uncertainty froze corporate and government spending, and the unexpected abatement of loadshedding abruptly ended the green energy boom, which fuelled our growth last year. Reduced demand for green energy products plunged us into a dark period with surplus stock in a hostile macro-economic environment with high interest rates."
Despite the negative results, the share seems cheap, and it has broken up through its 200-day moving average, which looks positive.
Our opinion on the current state of REMGRO(REM)Johann Rupert's Remgro (REM) is an investment holding company that owns 28.2% of Rand Merchant Bank Holdings (RMH) and 3.9% of Firstrand. But that is not Remgro's only investment. It also owns Mediclinic, an international healthcare company with divisions in Switzerland, Southern Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, which has now been delisted from the JSE.
Remgro recently sold its 25.8% stake in the London-listed Unilever Group for R4.9bn in cash, plus the Unilever spreads business in Southern Africa. This gave it ownership of brands like Flora and Rama and other spreads. In its foods division, it also owns 31.8% of Distell and 77.2% of RCL Foods, where the Unilever spreads division may be housed in a new subsidiary called "Silver 2017."
Under insurance, Remgro owns 29.9% of RMI. It also has several other investments, including a 23.1% stake in Grindrod and a 30% stake in Seacom. The Competition Tribunal has approved the acquisition by Community Investment Ventures Holdings (CIVH), a Remgro subsidiary, of Vumatel, a "last mile" fibre infrastructure company. As part of the approval, Vumatel must supply free uncapped fibre services to schools near where its networks pass for the next 10 years.
On 2nd December 2020, Remgro announced that it is planning to increase its stake in RCL Foods at a cost of R805m. The company has the intention of getting into the electricity generation business to supply its own businesses because it believes that Eskom can no longer be relied upon.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue of R50.4bn, up from R48.1bn, and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down by 18.8%. The company said, "A significant driver of the decline in headline earnings relates to the effect of the corporate actions implemented in the recent past, the majority of which are non-recurring items. Remgro's intrinsic net asset value per share increased by 1.0% from R248.47 at 30 June 2023 to R251.01 at 30 June 2024."
Technically, the share made a low at 8388c on 7th September 2020 and has been in a rising trend. Its most recent results have disappointed, and the share has broken down out of that trend. It is currently trading at 14583c on a P/E of 14.33. Once the negative news has been fully discounted, the share will probably represent good value. We recommended applying a 65-day exponential moving average and waiting for a clear upside break before investigating further. That break came on 12th June 2024 at 13000c.
6 months ni jse Let us wait and see what will happen in the coming 6month we will see the yearly income results 📊📉📈🧲
Our opinion on the current state of ARCINVEST(AIL)African Rainbow Capital (AIL) is a BEE investment company that was formed in 2015 and listed on the JSE in September 2017. Since its inception, AIL has invested in more than forty listed and unlisted investments in a wide range of industries, from telecommunications to mining, construction, energy, property, agriculture, insurance, asset management, and banking.
ARC Investments is 44.4% effectively owned by African Rainbow Capital Proprietary Limited (ARC), which in turn is 100% owned by Ubuntu-Booth Investments Proprietary Limited (UBI). UBI effectively owns 51.2% of ARC Investments. AIL is thus owned through Ubuntu-Botha Investments by the Motsepe family through their trusts. In the South African context, it has a significant advantage in finding suitable companies in which to invest because it can offer them a solid, reliable BEE shareholder.
AIL has benefited from an investment by Sanlam and owns a stake in the Sanlam subsidiary, Santam. The company acquired 100% of TymeDigital, which has launched a digital bank in partnership with Pick 'n Pay. It offers digital banking, especially for those who cannot afford normal banking, via their phones, and had the distinction of being the only bank in South Africa not to charge transaction fees. It competes with other new banks in South Africa like Discovery Bank and Bank Zero.
AIL has taken a hit on its investment in EOH (which may now be improving) but has done well in most other areas. Roughly half of the AIL portfolio is in what it describes as "early lifestyle stage businesses" such as Tymebank, Rain, and Kropz. These investments are seen as disruptive in their sectors but will take time to mature. It also owns 7% of Afrimat, having reduced its stake from 18.4%.
If there is a criticism of this investment holding company, it must be its lack of focus. It appears to be invested in a very diverse range of industries without significant synergies or economies of scale. The need of most South African companies to have a stable BEE partner gives it an edge in finding and negotiating good deals, but its lack of focus may eventually become a problem.
The share trades at a fraction of its intrinsic NAV. It was 59% of its NAV after falling about 25% in the last six months to 2023. The discount makes it good value and may result in "unbundling" some of that value into the hands of shareholders in due course. The directors have said that they will consider delisting from the JSE if the discount persists because the listing cannot be used to raise further capital at current share prices.
On 21st November 2023, the company announced a rights issue to raise R742.35m. Shareholders will get 11.06579 new shares for every 100 shares that they hold at a 7.32% discount to the volume-weighted average price on 10th November 2023. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported that its intrinsic net asset value (NAV) increased by 8.5% to 1238c per share, while Tymebank and Linebroker achieved break-even. Rain, which is 26% of the total portfolio, is the most preferred network in South Africa. The total value of listed and unlisted investments was R20.2bn.
The share still trades for much less than 60% of its NAV. Technically, the share has been falling since March 2023. We recommended applying a 200-day moving average and waiting for a clear upside break before investigating further. That break came on 26th April 2024 at 544c per share. Since then, the share has moved up to 727c.
Our opinion on the current state of METROFILE(MFL)Metrofile (MFL) is a company that specialises in records storage and management, image processing, and backup. The company has been listed since 1995 and has a 57.4% Black ownership. The Mineworkers Investment Company owns 38.64% of the business, and Sanlam owns 5%.
The company's record management division has 52 facilities at 27 locations with over 100,000 square meters of offices and warehousing. Housatonic Partners, a US company, made an offer to buy 100% of Metrofile for 330c per share but delayed the deal because of COVID-19. They indicated that they would want to see the end-June 2020 results and "three months of normal trade" before reconsidering. Despite this, they have assured the company of their wish to continue with the possible transaction for the acquisition of Metrofile.
In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue up 1% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 49%. The company said, "General market conditions were weak. Demand for cloud services remained strong and now contributes 32% (2023: 26%) of our digital services revenue."
We see this as a good-quality small business that seems to be battling in a very tough economic climate. Technically, the share now appears to be in a new downward trend. On 5th September 2024, the company announced that its CEO, Pfungwa Serima, would resign with effect from 30th September 2024. He will be replaced by Thabo Seopa.
Our opinion on the current state of SASOL(SOL)Sasol (SOL) is a massive international chemicals and energy company which has its roots in the oil-from-coal technology developed during the apartheid era in South Africa. About 50% of the company's profits are directly linked to the oil price. It has two main growth areas - its 50% stake in an ethane cracker plant in Louisiana, America, known as "Lake Charles Chemical Project" (LCCP), and its development of gas resources in Mozambique.
Sasol was awarded two new licences in Mozambique to explore for gas in an onshore development of approximately three thousand square kilometres. This could significantly add to its existing gas projects in the Rovuma province. One area of concern for Sasol is that it is the biggest producer of greenhouse gases in South Africa and on the JSE. It is listed as one of the 100 fossil-fuel companies world-wide that contribute to more than 70% of Greenhouse gases. The company remains under international pressure to deal with its carbon emissions effectively.
After the impact of COVID-19, the share made a dramatic recovery which was brought to an end by the decline in commodity prices, especially oil. On 7th April 2024, the company announced that the Minister of the Environment, Barbara Creecy, had upheld its appeal against a decision by the national air quality officer that might have put the continued activity at its Secunda oil-form-coal plant at risk.
Sasol operates six coal mines which deliver 10m tonnes of thermal coal feedstock to its operations at Secunda and Sasolburg and for the export market. In its results for the year to 30th June 2024, the company reported a headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 66% and a 16% drop in its net asset value (NAV). This was mainly due to the R58,9bn impairment of the Chemicals America Ethane value chain, a R5,3bn impairment of Chemicals Africa, and a R7,8bn impairment of Secunda.
The company said, "The business benefitted from a weaker R/US$ average exchange rate, and a favourable rand oil price, however constrained margins impacted negatively on our fuels and chemicals businesses. The financial results were further impacted by various operational challenges across the business." Sasol remains a volatile commodity share in a long-term downward trend. We suggest waiting until it breaks up through its downward trendline before investigating further.
On 16th September 2024, the company announced the appointment of Ms. Muriel Dube as Chairman of the board with immediate effect.
$JSECSB - Cashbuild: Two Technical Reasons For Bullish OutlookSee link below for previous analysis.
Cashbuild has been trading in a falling wedge pattern for over two years but the April 2024 low could be significant.
There are two technical reasons for optimism in Cashbuild:
1) Price looks to have broken out of the wedge pattern, though without much acceleration.
2) The MACD has been converging with price since October 2022 and is now holding above the
zero line.
I will maintain a bullish stance above the key invalidation level of 12150.
$JSEARI-African Rainbow Minerals: A New Road Map if 14662 HoldsSee link below for previous analysis.
Price continued higher to peak at 24476 cps after the previous analysis.
The strong sell-off broke below 15503 thereby invalidating the outlook.
Reason for optimism though is that the key invalidation level of 14662 still holds.
I am now looking at the large corrective structure as an expanded flat for wave 2.
For this outlook to remain valid, 14662 must continue to hold and to a lesser degree, 15263 could be a key bottom as well.
I am bullish above 14662 cps.
$JSEMTN - MTN: Is The Bottom Finally In? 7043cps Holds The KeySee link below for previous analysis.
MTN did not take long to reverse aggressively after the previous analysis.
The bounce from 7043 cps looks impulsive and has broken above an intermediate trendline with wave 5 of (C); I will get more conviction with a break above 9876 cps as that will confirm that wave 5 is complete in the context of the ending diagonal.
The MACD also shows positive signals; there has been strong convergence below the zero line and the momentum indicator has broken a strong resistance trendline above the zero line.
I am bullish above 7043 cps with a buy the dips strategy.
$JSESPG - Super Group: Will Rectangle Support Hold?See link below for previous analysis
SPG stock has traded back to the support zone of the large rectangle pattern that started forming back in September of 2021. Price has been consolidating in the 2400-3700 price range.
Current momentum is still to the downside so it will be interesting to see what price does at this critical lower support zone.
I will sit on my hands for now though my bias is a reversal.
$JSEJBL - Jubilee: Not Following Script, 109 cps Under PressureSee link below for previous analysis.
The dip has kept on dipping since the last analysis and the invalidation level of 109 cps looks under threat.
A break below 109 will prompt a fresh outlook of the bigger picture so now we wait and see what price does.
Our opinion on the current state of GRANPRADE(GPL)Grand Parade Investments (GPL) is an investment holding company primarily involved in the gaming industry. As a BEE company, it has been listed on the JSE since 2008. The company decided to exit its food franchises, including Dunkin' Doughnuts and Baskin Robbins in February 2019, and Burger King in February 2020. Additionally, GPL sold its remaining 10% stake in Spur Corporation back to Spur in June 2019. On 15th June 2022, GPL announced the unbundling of its 9.28% shareholding in Spur, where shareholders received 1 Spur share for every 56 GPL shares they held as of 10th June 2022 (the unbundling record date).
In its financial results for the six months ending 31st December 2023, GPL reported revenue of R12.7m and headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased to 11.9c from 9.8c in the previous period. The company attributed the improvement to a 34% reduction in net central costs, which dropped to R7.9m due to a restructuring of operations, the write-back of R11m in prescribed dividends, and various cost-saving initiatives.
On 20th October 2022, GPL gave a strong on-balance-volume (OBV) buy signal amid rumors of a potential takeover. On 25th October 2022, GBM Liquidity, a private company, acquired a 27.88% stake in GPL, later increasing this to 35.14%. Additionally, on 11th November 2022, Sun International boosted its stake to 10.56%. Another OBV buy signal emerged on 8th November 2022 at 330c, signaling heightened activity. Subsequently, on 11th April 2023, GPL announced that GBM Liquidity Corporation, a family trust of Greg Bortz, had secured control with 53.65% of the company's issued capital.
In a trading statement for the year ending 30th June 2024, GPL estimated HEPS between 18.94c and 19.46c, a significant improvement compared to 2.56c in the prior year. This improvement was largely driven by a reduction in restructuring costs associated with the exit from non-core investments in the previous year.
Despite these developments, GPL's share price has been moving sideways since 2017. From a technical perspective, it does not appear to offer a particularly compelling investment opportunity at this time.
Our opinion on the current state of BELL(BEL)Bell (BEL) is a manufacturer and distributor of heavy equipment, primarily for the mining, construction, agriculture, and waste management industries. It has been impacted by the global slowdown in construction since 2008 and the collapse of the mining sector. Bell's articulated dump trucks (ADTs) are exported worldwide from its manufacturing bases in South Africa and Germany. In addition to its own products, Bell also distributes equipment for global manufacturers, offering a range of over 120 products. Approximately 60% of the company's business comes from outside South Africa. Bell employs 3,200 people, of whom 88.6% are in South Africa.
CEO Gary Bell has indicated that the company might consider delisting, with 1A Bell (the Bell family entity) making an offer to minority shareholders. However, some of these shareholders believe the board has a fiduciary duty to put the company up for sale to the highest bidder. On 18th February 2021, the company announced that 1A Bell would buy a further 31.4% of Bell, giving it a 70% stake at R10 per share, a 13% discount to the share price at that time.
In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company reported revenue up 6% but headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 6%. The company highlighted strong demand for ADTs in the USA, where it improved its market share despite a highly competitive environment and high inventory levels across the industry. Southern hemisphere markets like South Africa and Zambia, driven by mining demand, proved more resilient than northern hemisphere markets like Europe and the UK.
The stock trades over R3m worth of shares on average each day, making it suitable for private investors. There was an on-balance-volume (OBV) buy signal on 7th September 2023 at 1752c per share, and since then, the share has moved up to 2480c. On 15th July 2024, the company announced that the Bell family had made a firm offer to buy out the remaining 30% of Bell, which it did not own, at R53 per share. This offer represents an 82.3% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the share price on 11th July 2024 (3100c). The share will be delisted once the transaction is completed.
