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Intervacc caseThe vaccine candidate/product Intervaccs vaccine candidate for horses is on time and responses to EMA DAY 120 questions have been submitted regarding the Company's Marketing Authorization on 12 january this year. Application (MAA) for Strangvac has been submitted on this day to the European Medicines Agency (EMA). Intervacc is seeking approval for Strangvac as a vaccine against equine strangles, a highly contagious infectious disease that affects horses globally. Decision expected in (early?) Q2 this year. After validating the submission and reviewing the responses, a second list of questions and outstanding issues is expected from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Veterinary Use (CVMP). The Company estimates that it is on track for a positive opinion from the CVMP during Q2 2021. The vaccine has been developed with an innovative technology and is based on recombinant fusion proteins. The research behind the vaccine's technical platform has been done together with researchers at Karolinska Institute and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SLU. The MAA for Strangvac is based on a successful series of clinical studies demonstrating the safety, immunogenicity, efficacy and DIVA capability of this exciting vaccine. DIVA (Differentiation of Infected from Vaccinated Animals) capability is a key feature for prevalent endemic diseases such as equine strangles in order to distinguish vaccinated animals from those that have been exposed to the bacteria Streptococcus equi Business model I believe the business rollout/model going through existing vaccine programmes has a lot of potential to be succesfull. I also belive there is a high probability the vaccine will go through. The company have been working on this for 16 years, it's not like the covid vaccine. Today there is no good solution for the very dangerous and costly decease. The whole stable will need to be put into quarantine if one horse is infected. I believe insurance companies will more or less demand that insured horses and stables take the vaccine. Pricing believed to be around 300 kr per vaccine. 2-3 needed first year and then refills. Gross margins above 90%. Modelling value and price doses - there are 60 million horses in the world. The company calculate with 20 million in their target area, Europe, US, Australia and the Mid East. Intervaccs graph suggest around 16-17 million horses within main area with 6 million in their first market Europe, and 10 million in the second, the US, as well as 1 million in Australia. The US rollout can be expected first in second part of 2021. - 30-60% meets vets and are in vaccination programs - Intervacc recommend 2-3 doses per year, CEO calculates with around 1,5 dose per year - Intervacc suggest the first doses will work for "at least 12 months" in their presentation. - some known investors in Sweden believe there's a need for 3 doses the first year price - 100 kr for vaccine against influenca - the comapany as well as investors had early estimates of around 120 kr (in 2018) - but in 2020 the CEO says he believe they can set a price of 300 kr (september 2020) per dose and he believes the customers are willing to pay this price. my napking sketch - year 2021–2023: 7,5 million horses x 35% x 1-1,5 dose = 2,6–3,9 million doses per year x a price of 200 kr/dose: 520–780 miljoner kr/year - year 2024–2025: 15 million horses x 45% x 1-1,5 dose = 6,8–10,1 million doses per year x price of 230 kr/dos: 1 564–2 323 million kr/year* *I actually have come to believe the 300 kr per dose is a good price and perhaps there will be a faster rollout than calculated. However you look at it, enterprise value, given the vaccine is approved and that business model and price has a product market fit, coudl or should have a very nice expansion. I expected an upside between 2-3x in 2020-09-13 but now I've come to expect an 2,5 x upside from here, not counting optionality. Enterprise value per 2020-09-13: 1,76 billion kr (at time of napkin sketch) Enterpise value per today 2021-01-29: 2,54 billion kr Technical Looking for breakout above 52, cheat, followed with interest points at 54,5 and later 58.
OMXSTO:IVACCLong
by kulturdesken
RakeTech in upward trendRakeTech will likely follow an upwards short-term trend. Be aware that RakeTech has a low volume and small market Cap, making it rather risky. The stock has experienced a golden cross in August 2020, and has been climbing nicely in the trend channel since. Shortly in November the upper bound was tested, and the price lowered to the limit of the lower bound. This movement was resisted by a support level in 10.30. The price is now heading towards the price gap experienced in November 2019, with a rising RSI, whereby the price might break above 11.85 and go for 13.05.
OMXSTO:RAKELong
by PersonalFinanceDude
Swedish sterling - darvas box trade patternDarvas box trade explained with Swedish sterling as example. Where to put on the trade, where to put the stop loss and context. Context, swedish sterling is a stock with increasing trade volume, in a rising market and in a bullish sector with news of a recent patent filing to the european patent office. Swedish sterling A clean tech company, filing a new patent of Sterling engine which is more efficient in converting to electricity . The company's latest product - the PWR BLOK 400-F - is a propriatery solution for recycling energy from industrial residual and flare gases and converting these into 100% carbon-neutral electricity at high efficiency. According to an independent certification, the PWR BLOK is the cheapest way to generate electricity that exists today, yielding greater CO\2\ savings per krona invested than any other type of energy.
SEducation
by kulturdesken
1
SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) - A contrarian COVID recovery bet?SAS(Scandinavian Airlines) has been butchered through 2020 as well as many other of its peers. Maybe now is the time to consider a contrarian bet on this stock? After experiencing extreme volatility to the upside and extreme volatility to the downside, SAS looks like it´s finally consolidating. it has a nice support area ranging from 1.57 to resistance at 1.93. It has also broken the falling trend from 1st October to 28th December. 1 option is to trade the breakout at 2 SEK or wait for a re-test at 1.57 For an investor, it could be the time to start accumulating at these levels.
SLong
by NorseTrader
1
IAR Systems Recovery potentialIAR Systems is among the stocks which hasnt recovered after the COVID19 sell off in Feb/march 2020. There seems to be a strong support for the short-term upwards trend to break the long-term downward trend. RSI is medium, but will be rising due to the increasing positive volume. First resistance to overcome is 151 (target 1), second resistance is 170 (target 2). First support 135 (stoploss should be 128-135, as it is stock with lower market cap). Yet, be aware, that 50 days avg < 200 days avg, whereby the stock is still bearish in traditional terms. Long position entered at 142.1 SEK
OMXSTO:IAR_BLong
by PersonalFinanceDude
AstraZeneca bullish pennantThere hasn't been a significant rise in Astrazeneca, despite the approval of the vaccine in the UK, the orders from Indonesia and Taiwan and reassuring news about the effectiveness of the vaccine. I think some negative publicity about the vaccine effectiveness in comparison to the other vaccines in the US could have led to this consolidation, but even if the other vaccines are a few percents more efficient, the cost and storage efficiency will be a large differentiator for many countries. The approval of the UK will give confidence to other countries (India, Brazil, Europe,...) to speed up the approval process, I expect this will cause the stock to break upwards after more countries approve it.
OMXSTO:AZNLong
by money_47