A new era: a departure from the past three decades.SCGP and its paper cartel have experienced a decline in their dominant position within the domestic market, where they previously maintained a strong monopoly and significant control. Historically, the paper packaging industry in Thailand has been recognized as one of the most expensive globally, largely due to the stringent control exerted by SCGP and its cartel over the pulp and paper supply chain, particularly in the corrugated box segment. The recent policy decision by the Thai government to exempt taxes on Chinese imports has introduced unprecedented challenges across various industries, with the paper sector being no exception. This shift has effectively dismantled the barriers that once protected the local market, leaving it vulnerable to formidable competition, which outmatches the domestic capabilities by a significant margin. This is also relevant to other ASEAN markets, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, where it lacks the advantageous positions in capital and regulatory support.
Looking ahead, SCGP and the broader Thai paper industry will be compelled to pivot towards innovation and substantial research and development efforts to remain competitive against the influx of more affordable and technologically advanced Chinese products. Regrettably, SCGP's strategy of diversification and international expansion has led to the dilution of its resources, including both human and financial capital, rendering it a generalist in a landscape that increasingly demands specialization. This strategic spread has left the company vulnerable to multifaceted competition. Whether it could turn itself into a technology-first innovative organization is yet to be seen, but, in my humble opinion, unlikely. The relentless drive of Chinese competitors to leverage their extensive industrial capacity in the ASEAN region poses a significant threat, undermining smaller entities and eroding the profit margins of larger firms, all while often neglecting considerations of sustainability and principles.
With the expansive reach of the One Belt, One Road initiative extending from Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and spanning from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, ASEAN is poised to transition into a new era under China's influence and control. The implications of this shift are likely to be seen and felt on a global scale.
