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HE1 Outlook (12/09/2024) (Log)HE1 engages in the exploration and production of Helium Gas. As of present, it has been an extremely volatile AIM play, peaking at 25p and bottoming at 0.185p. Fortunes have been made & lost. Now, onto the analysis. I am NOT a fan of using log over linear, as I find it to be less reliable, hence most targets are based on the red horizontal lines, with the trend patterns as supporting evidence to inform/estimate intersections. As of today (12th Sep 2024), I expect a pump to what I call the bag holder line. I then expect a slow sell off to around 3 to 4 pence (assuming no stock splits occur). I expect this target to be hit around September 2025. Then, from there, we may truly have lift off. Let's see how it plays out!!! Not financial advice - Just a bit of fun.
LSE:HE1
by mypostsareNotFinancialAdvice
25% sell Shell and buy BPBP and Shell move together and BP has already lead the way lower If Shell moves back to relative parity there is a 25% poss move Shell moves back to EMA 200 Shell moves back to 0.618 fib retracement of prior move This could be start of much larger move lower Most MSM are claiming inflation trade that oil will move higher but TA price chart shows breaking out of a wedge lower Shell just broke it trendline support Good luck no matter which way the market moves if these prices come back to parity over maybe quick snap back or longer term 3-6 months you can pick up 25% With Sept here and markets closer to top than bottom it safer as your money is hedged BP triple top at 500 Shel topped out at approx 3000 round number As both of these moved up hugely over past few years on back of oil price if their prices break the 200 EMA then the banks and other market holders may sell and get out of the long term trend ie bank their profits which could cause swift market moves USA numbers are weaker than expected, also if the Fed cuts and markets tank following fed announcement which is lead by the bond market which is already lowerer. So it all points to lower shell price. Also Trump promised to reduce the cost of energy for USA so he wants lower oil prices to reduce the cost of manufacture of goods in USA to make them more competitive Also with JPYUSD the last time the carry trade got into trouble was due largely in part of the high oil price. Which caused liquidity crisis, hence as they central banks are buying now due to the past months JPYUSD mess up. Historically having a lower oil price helps the JPYUSD situation. Plus ATM Dollar is strong and emerging markets are relatively weak so having lower oil price may result as Dollar weakens and the emerging markets strengthen over the next couple of years. I am not so sure retail knows how to hedge any more ? well I am not so sure todays hedge fund mngrs know how to hedge any more they just buy everything and get paid their commissions. Works fine until theres another liquidity crisis and we are at biblical sentiment indicators so there is a lot of risk out there. BP / Shell as a pair dont get stretched much apart historically if you have a lot of money and can just sit there with 6,7,8.9,10 figure accounts I think you will do well with this approach hey we could have banked it together and slept soundly at night! and traded from anywhere in the world with not so much urgency to sit in front of a screen 24/7 - that is this strategy
LSE:SHEL
by William_Playfair
Shell quick 18% to sell off back to 200 EMA and to 61.8 FibAs Oil is weak bearish case for Shell to sell back to its 200 EMA and then just fake out below this level to reach the 61.8 Fib retracement of the recent move up Shell looks like it just broke is support trendline Other points Oil has broken out of a wedge and appears to be moving lower BP and Shell move together and BP has made ATH at round number 500 and made triple top at this level and has already broken lower. If you pair trade these two stocks there is now a relative of up to say a potential of 25% to be captured if the two companies prices move back to relative parity to each other
LSE:SHELShort
by William_Playfair
Gold Fields Limited - Who benefits most from the gold rally? Key arguments supporting the idea Gold is currently trading above $2500, reflecting a 36% increase from its low point last October and a 23% rise since the start of the new bull run in late February. However, the market has yet to price-in these astronomical gold price levels with gold mining stocks. We conducted a thorough analysis of the gold mining landscape and came up with a list of the companies that have the most potential in the coming year in our view. We evaluated gold mining companies based on three pillars: 1) their performance in the past year, 2) production growth expected in 2025, and 3) EBITDA margin going into 2025. With all three in mind, we decided to list the most undervalued stocks and came up with the following list. Bull Thesis for Gold Miners A rally in the gold prices has led to margin expansion for many of the players with some of them going into 2025 with a secured EBITDA margin of nearly 90% (for royalty companies), and 60-70% (for those miners with an AISC of less than $800 per ounce). A rally has fast forwarded many of the projects under construction phase, prompting miners to enjoy the fruitful seasoning with ingredients such as high price, government support and a decrease in interest rates. While we may be worried that there’s little room left for expansion in the gold pricing, it does little to affect gold miners, who’re willingly secure future gold sales at currently elevated forward prices, ensuring them hefty margins years in advance. Business Overview Gold Fields is one of the world's largest gold mining firms, headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, with operations spanning Africa, Australia, and the Americas. Headquartered in South Africa, it is one of the world’s largest gold producers, known for its significant high-quality reserves and resources. Key operating assets include the South Deep mine in South Africa, the Tarkwa and Damang mines in Ghana, the Cerro Corona mine in Peru, and multiple sites in Australia, including the St Ives and Granny Smith mines. In recent years, Gold Fields has been expanding its presence outside Africa to reduce geopolitical risks and diversify its asset base. It has also been investing in new growth projects, such as the Salares Norte project in Chile, which is expected to become a key contributor to the company’s future production. Namely, Gold Fields (GFI) has become the 4th largest gold mining company in 2022 following its acquisition of Yamana Gold (AUY) for $7 bn. The rationale for acquisition was an intentional increase of presence in the Americas region, where prior to that the Company was fairly active. Recently the Company announced that it will acquire Canadian Osisko for $1.6 billion amid rising precious metal prices. The acquisition supports Gold Fields' business diversification beyond Africa. The mine is expected to start operations in 2027, with an annual production volume of 300 Koz. The Company is forecasted to increase gold output by 14% in 2025, while it enjoys a high margin of 56%.
LSE:0IYRLong
by FreedomHolding
Defensive Dividend Stock Interest rates are coming down, the rate cutting cycle has started in the EU and the UK. Time to look at the best defensive stocks out there. Reckitt Benckiser is close to the top of my list for the following reasons: 1. High divident yield - 4.51%. This will soon be higher than having money parked in a savings account. 2. Low market volatility and recently oversold on the monthly RSI. This suggests a new upcycle could well be on it's way. 3. Economic Moat - strong brand ownership of essential goods. Including Lysol, Dettol, Durex, Nurofen, Finish. 4. Defensive characteristics - It's essential product offering (cleaning products, painkillers, etc) are required regardless of the economic situation. Founded in 1823, making it over 200 years old and still going strong. Technical analyis - observe my chart, it speaks for itself. Complete reset on the Monthly RSI and hopefully the start of a large wave up. Not financial advice, do what's best for you.
LSE:RKTLong
by NoFOMO_
Will Rolls Royce print 60% correction to 180p?Since the long idea (linked below) price action has melted up 600% in only 21 months. Astonishing. A plethora of long ideas are now published, including on this platform. The Motley Fool, July 11th - recommended buy “Rolls-Royce’s share price looks very undervalued to me, with strong business growth prospects, and an investment-grade rating adding to the firm’s allure.” People actually pay money for this rag. This analysis from WW is free. Businessinsider, June 26th - According to TipRanks, RR stock has received a Strong Buy “Deutsche Bank Stays Bullish on Rolls-Royce (RR) Amid Industry Headwinds” It goes on.. “Menard is a five-star-rated analyst as per the TipRanks Star Ranking tool. Through this tool, TipRanks monitors the performance of many financial experts, ranking them based on their success rate, average returns, and statistical significance.” It is fascinating to see so many turn bullish at this time. It is a reminder why so few traders (and hedge funds) succeed. Greed. ** The Technical Analysis ** On the above 3 week chart we have: 1) RSI touches 89.3 (blue line), it has never been at this level in the entire history of the business. I remind you this is a 3 week chart. The entire history is shown below. These are bubble levels of strength recorded on the RSI index. 2) RSI support prints breakout. Look left. 3) The Gravestone DOJI candlestick prints across multiple timeframes, including this chart. 4) Why 60% correction? Significant market corrections in the stock were always arrested at the same levels when looking left. 4a) Annual support (yearly candles). 4b) The Fibonacci 0.382. In 2016 the correction was even further, down to the 0.618 The orange line is where both those conditions 1st confirm. Is it possible price action continues up like the financial rags claim? Sure. Is it probable? 100% no. Ww RSI big picture 3 week
LSE:RR.Short
by without_worries
1
Ubisoft Entertainment SA / UBIUbisoft Entertainment aka ubi "bug" is a french video game publisher headquartered in Saint-Mandé with development studios across the world. Its video game franchises include Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, For Honor, Just Dance, Prince of Persia, Rabbids, Rayman, Tom Clancy's, and Watch Dogs. Ubisoft was one early investors in web3 technologies and projects too last year was a terrible year for ubi because not only they didn't succeed with their franchise like farcry 6 but also they entered the bear market while they were working on their bigger projects like AC. “We are clearly disappointed by our recent performance,” said Ubisoft Chief Executive Yves Guillemot. “We are facing contrasted market dynamics as the industry continues to shift towards mega-brands and everlasting live games, in the context of worsening economic conditions affecting consumer spending.” 2023 is a big year for ubi and they are going to publish some of their best games like Assassin's Creed Mirage, Tom Clancy’s The Division Heartland and skull and bones ubi stock now in Accumulation phase and its next targets are 21, 23 and 25
LSIN:0NVLLong
by moonypto
1
Burberry may turn around soon? EW sequenceBurberry (ticker: BRBY) reaching ~14 years lows, where the risk /reward ratio for the mid/long term starting to be favourable. I have two scenarios sketched out on the weekly, white being a 5 wave up, in which we finished 3, followed by a yet unfinished irregular flat structure as a wave 4. Yellow suggests a 3 count move up as an (A) wave, working now on the (B) wave, and later (likely several years) a (C) would follow in 5 subwaves. In yellow I would primarly expect a deeper cut in the (B) wave also as an ABC structure, where we likely nearing the A wave bottom in the foreseable future. In both scenario a move-up should be imminent, white to start the wave (5) to the upside, and for the yellow it would be the B wave. For the yellow I put there the resistance levels, but be aware, as price cuts deeper (IF), then we need to adjust that red resistance fib box. Now, the movedown already consist 5 waves, so technicly we could be near to the local lows, and also in support already (hence the post). Next levels to watch: 951, 885, and 834 and 768 as bigger fib support levels. Weekly RSI is oversold despite MACD is weakening, On the daily we are building divergence already, so far all the meaningful MA's (9/21/50-52) currently rejecting price action, and far below the 200day MA.
LSE:BRBYLong
by tommtajlor
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC*safe investment opportunity - low risk* Each candle on the above chart represents 6-months of price action. You can be sure not many people are studying this time frame. A new candle was printed at the close of 2020 following an astonishing 80% correction since mid-2014. We can see previous price action resistance from dot.com bubble is now winning strong support during the ‘everything bubble’ resulting in the printing of a Dragonfly DOJI candle. Cleary buyers were keen to get exposure to this oversold stock. An ‘incredible buy’ opportunity is now indicated on the 10-day chart below following an oversold condition (orange column). Price action currently finds support in the bullish half of the Bollinger Band as volume increases. A buy from 66-100p is amazing if you can get it.
LSE:RR.Long
by without_worries
36
Centrica - bullish divergence*investment opportunity* A 90% correction since 2014 and following oversold condition there now exists an excellent opportunity to buy this stock. The 10-day chart above confirms a regular bullish divergence between price action and the oscillators + higher low in price action. This is the start of a trend reversal. Price action is now in the bullish half of the Bollinger band as the mouth is constricting, which suggests a big move is coming. On the fundamentals Centrica engages in the provision of energy and supply services. There is no end of ‘bad news’ stories on the business. Pay no attention. The only news you need is the headlines in the charts, and they look amazing. A buy above 42 is good. 1st target 115 2-month chart - broken RSI resistance following oversold condition: 3-month chart - bullish morning star + confirmation
LSE:CNALong
by without_worries
20