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Take-Two: Target Zone in Focus!Although a slight downward tendency has been observed in TTWO’s sideways phase, the stock has recently shown new motivation on the upside. While short-term pullbacks cannot be ruled out, we still expect the beige b-wave to extend into our beige Target Zone (coordinates: $241.59 – $257.87), where we anticipate a significant trend reversal. This outlook remains intact as long as the support at $135.62 holds fast. An early sell-off below this level would trigger our alternative scenario of a premature correction low within our blue Target Zone between $107.47 and $46 (33% probability).
NASDAQ:TTWO
by MarketIntel
APPL - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade ContinuationHere's the details of my trade Short on AAPL.... I previously shorted APPL for a trade from $255 to $244. Unfortunately I did not fully maximise my profit. If you watch the video I explain where I missed a signal that could have allowed me to gain more profit. Nonetheless, I made a profit! So let's celebrate that. The original pattern and trade is still in tact and therefore this video explains the continuation pattern I am currently trading. Daily Chart: - QQE Signal Short - Divergence on the RSI - Cross down on the MACD 4hr Chart: - QQE Signal Short - Strong Divergence on the RSI - Cross down on the MACD Fundamental Support: - PE Ratio overvalued at 40, historic PE ratio range 12-28 excl Covid 2020 - Buffet has cut Berkshire Hathaways stake in Apple by 60% - 2 consecutive years of flat YoY revenue, with declines in Iphone, Wearables, Ipad, Mac offset by YoY growth in Services - Flat YoY Revenue in USA, Asia Pac, and Japan, with declines in Greater China - 2 consecutive years of YoY Net Income decline, EPS benefit from share buybacks of 1B since 2022 - Operating Margin improvement, however primarily driven by product mix (decline of core products and growth of services business) Previous Developments & News - Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th - A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position if employment figures are positive - However, inadvertently, higher employment figures will reduce the likelihood of FED rate cuts, offsetting some of the upside potential This was commentary I put in previously....what ended up happening? The unemployment report on Friday ended up being way above forecast 255k vs 155k forecast. Sending treasury yields higher and the market lower. This is in line with my comment about higher employment figures, although it may sound rosey, it's further reducing the likelihood of the FED reducing rates and increase the possibility of higher inflation. The market does not like that Target: - Previous ATH at 236, if it breaks this level than there's opp to move down thru 232, to as low as 221 - Stop: A break above $244 - Possible profit taking at 50 day moving average near $237-$238 range - Previous declines ranged from 8-15 days to reach short term lows, estimating similar timeframe with a possible break of support line, retest, and further decline Risks: - The rollout of Apple Intelligence sparks strong Christmas sales and upgrade cycle for Iphone 16 - Investor optimism for Apple Intelligence drives continued buying in AAPL - A bounce off support and continued move higher Overall: AAPL has rolled out Apple Intelligence in several major markets with some features still coming soon. It would be an understatement to say that the development, features, and rollout have be clumsy at best. Not only has the rollout and announcements been underwhelming, but Apple looks to be playing catchup with technology competitors have already well established in the market. Apple continues to be a loved brand worldwide, and there's no denying the brand loyalty is still strong, however lagging technology, premium prices on their products, high PE/valuation with flat to declining revenue and profitability. Until Apple can either reclaim it's technological advantage by becoming a leader again in the market, or reposition it's product offering and pricing to drive demand, it's difficult fundamentally see why the stock is worth the PE with so many other companies in market with new innovation and growth potential comparatively. This isn't to suggest Apple will collapse, but a correction technically and fundamentally is warranted near term with broader economic risks and technological missed expectations that could warrant lower prices. My Position: 3 Put Options $235 Strike, Current Price $242 Expiration Friday Jan 17th Average Price is $1.30 a contract Investment $400 Target $3.00-$10.00 Stop $.65 Potential Loss -$200 Potential Gain $400-$2600 The reason for the wide target range is because if APPL breaks through the 50 Day MA and the previous ATH, that is very bearish and although it may retest that level, it could create quite a fall and I would look to maximise my trade at that point.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by jaytmarquardt
Boeing is ready for next leg up to $200On December 10, 2024, we had a look at the weekly chart of NYSE:BA Boeing and it was a very good opportunity to get into this stock. Since then, we made over 20% in under one month. After consolidating for nearly three weeks, we may have another chance to get in for the next leg up to $200. The only thing to worry about are the earnings on January 28. Those could have a huge impact on the stock price, but chances are the impact will be positive. Since 2024 was a very challenging year for Boeing with lower net orders booked compared to Airbus the comparisons are much easier to beat than it is for Airbus. Boeing experienced a decline in various metrics last year. The company recorded 569 gross orders, representing a 61% decrease compared to the previous year. Cancellations increased by 50 units, mainly due to the anticipated cancellation of 135 jets ordered by Jet Airways. Net orders fell by 71% to 377 orders, and the net order value also decreased by 71% to $33 billion. This reduction in orders is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Boeing's production schedule, which makes it less attractive for airplane orders. Deliveries fell by 34% to 348, and the delivery value decreased by 35% to $26.1 billion due to the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX 9 and a subsequent strike. If we assume no further crashes or problems with Boeing aircrafts the numbers are easier to beat, and we come from a very low base. In addition, most analysts are quite conservative right now. Looking at the technical setup we just bounced from the 0.382 fib from the current upward movement. Below the fib we have another support at around $160 as well as a resistance at $200 with an open gap. Assuming no surprises during the earnings we’re up for another leg up to $200 (15% ROI). Target Zones $198-200 Support Zones $165 $160
NYSE:BALong
by LGNDRY-Capital
1
Johnson & Johnson: Awaiting ResultsJohnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), one of the global giants in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer sectors, is in the spotlight as it prepares to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results. Analysts and the market expect the results to reflect a combination of macroeconomic challenges and strategic opportunities that will define its performance in 2025. Expected Q4 2024 results 1. Pharmaceuticals: The pharmaceutical business remains the key revenue driver for J&J, driven by drugs such as Stelara (treatment for immune diseases) and Darzalex (multiple myeloma). However, the recent loss of exclusivity for some products could affect revenues, especially in key markets such as the United States and Europe. o Expected revenues: Moderate growth of 3-5% year-on-year is projected in the pharmaceutical segment. 2. Medical devices: The post-pandemic recovery has favored this segment, with an increase in surgical procedures and advanced therapies. However, supply chain issues and high material costs could limit gains. 3. Consumer products: The consumer division, now under the Kenvue brand, has experienced stable growth thanks to products such as Tylenol and Neutrogena. However, competition in this market remains intense, which could limit profit margins. Technical analysis with WACD The company is currently in a price correction that began in September 2024 and has moved since December last year in a range between $150 and $142 a share. Currently there have been bearish signals in the WACD indicator in its WVAP signal that show us that it can correct its price again in that range. On the other hand the smoothed triple mean seems to be extending its move from the recent lows, indicating that this signal could be short-lived and could send the price subsequently towards the high end of the range if the expected results are as indicated. Outlook for 2025 1. Pharmaceutical innovation: Johnson & Johnson has strengthened its focus on research and development, with a robust pipeline that includes oncology treatments and advanced gene therapies. Expected new drug approvals could be a key catalyst for long-term growth. 2. Legal Challenges: Litigation related to talc and other consumer products continues to be a source of uncertainty. While J&J has established a compensation fund, legal costs could affect its results in 2025. 3. Digital transformation and sustainability: The company is investing in digital technologies to improve operational efficiency and in sustainability initiatives that align its business model with market and regulatory expectations. Conclusion Johnson & Johnson faces a mixed picture in the near term, with challenges in some key segments and growth opportunities in others. Fourth quarter 2024 results will be crucial in gauging its ability to overcome current pressures and capitalize on its innovation strategy in 2025. With a focus on diversification and innovation, J&J remains a benchmark in the healthcare sector, but its success will depend on how it manages legal and macroeconomic risks in the coming years. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NYSE:JNJ
by ActivTrades
ADBE near Confluence Support - 33% ROI PossibleNASDAQ:ADBE is currently nearing a confluence support (an area where multiple support elements are combined) at around $410-$420. Nevertheless, opening a first position right now is already an option given the attractive valuation and the horizontal support (blue zone). In addition there are two big daily gaps (red zones) above the current price giving us some potential pulling factor towards $580. The trendline you can see is very weak and has only two real re-tests in October 2022. So, take that with a grain of salt and try to concentrate more on the horizontal support and the $410-$420 area (61.8 fib). Looking at fundamentals (I know most of you are not really interested in such things, but they do help with swing trades) we can see a price-to-sales ratio of 9.xx suggesting upside of 50% when comparing it to the long-term average of 14.xx. ARR increased 23% YoY to $3.48B. In terms of AI, firefly generated more than 16 billion assets so far, and FY24 revenue increased by a little more than 11% to $21.51B. Current PE ratio is just short of 22. So, adding here and more towards that $410 will give us a huge potential ROI over the next couple of months. Support Zones $440 $410-420 Targe Zones $540 $580-600
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by LGNDRY-Capital
2
HOW TO Document your RESEARCH using TradingViewDocumenting your research as a trader is not just beneficial—it's essential. After a decade in the trenches, I know that organized, thorough documentation can make the difference between a profitable strategy and a missed opportunity. TradingView is not just a charting platform, it is also a journal, a diary, for ALL your trading ideas. The features it has are enormous. You can literally screenshot/snip your screen or part of it from another window and then CTRL+V it onto the chart itself. Personal TIP: I picture my physical notes, then I put the picture inside next to the chart, then I save the chart image with a link, and then I put the link into the idea text, and it shows me the note, like here: You can always revise your documentation and add to it as much as you want. The more evidence you can add, the more sound your pattern is, and the more confident you will be in putting your money on it, since you "KNOW" it should manifest because it is backed up by stock market logic and research. The price will move, with you or without you, ask yourself always the question: "Can this move be predicted beforehand?" and start your way from there... Be honest with yourself, some moves just CANT be predicted, they come out of nowhere, but others CAN and WILL give you HUGE SIGNS... if you document them... Here’s a structured approach to help you capture and refine your trading insights: 1. Find a Market Logic Before diving into trades, establish a market logic—a hypothesis or theory that drives your trading decisions. This might stem from historical data patterns, news-driven market reactions, or economic indicators. Ensure your logic is grounded in data and has a clear basis for expected outcomes. This foundational step helps avoid random, emotion-driven trades. 2. Give It a Name Assign a distinct and memorable name to your market logic. This helps you quickly reference and differentiate between multiple strategies. A good name can be as simple as “Earnings Reversal Strategy” or as creative as “The Phoenix Rebound.” Naming your strategy not only aids in documentation but also enhances your cognitive recall during decision-making. 3. Take Pictures of It Documenting your strategy visually is crucial. Take screenshots of relevant charts, trade setups, and indicators. Annotate these images with key details like entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and any other pertinent information. Visual aids can clarify your logic and make it easier to analyze past trades. TradingView allows you to insert a chart into your research, giving you the most visual documentation possible. By the way, if you are short in time, you can do a video of your documentation and speaking your idea of a strategy instead of writing it, much faster documentation. Also, much more interactive for future reference. 4. Write the Pros of It Clearly outline the pros of your strategy. These could include: Consistency: Does your strategy yield reliable results over time? Risk Management: Does it have built-in mechanisms to minimize losses? Simplicity: Is it straightforward to execute without complex calculations? Adaptability: Can it be applied across different market conditions? 5. Write the Cons of It - Are You Maybe Wrong? Be honest about the cons of your strategy. Acknowledge potential weaknesses: Overfitting: Does your strategy rely too heavily on historical data, potentially failing in real-time? Complexity: Is it too complicated to execute consistently? Market Conditions: Does it only work in specific market environments? Emotional Bias: Are there elements that could lead to biased decision-making? 6. Write the Limitations of It - Where It Works, and Why? Define the limitations of your strategy. Clearly state where and why it works, and under what conditions it might fail: Timeframes: Does it perform best on certain timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly)? Market Phases: Is it more effective during trending or ranging markets? Instrument Specificity: Does it work better with certain asset classes (stocks, forex, commodities)? Understanding these limitations helps you apply your strategy more effectively and avoid unnecessary risks. 7. Connect with Different Ideas - Do They Make Sense? Finally, cross-reference your strategy with other ideas and strategies. This process involves: Finding synergies: Does your strategy complement other existing strategies? Seeking validation: Are there external sources or research that support your logic? Peer Review: Discuss your strategy with fellow traders to gain different perspectives.
NASDAQ:COINEducation
by ZoharCho
1