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NVDIA Death Cross Quant Perspectives (Light Case Study)NASDAQ: Nvidia (NVDA ) has recently experienced an uptrend after a death cross formed consisting of the 65 and 200 EMAs on the 1 Day chart. If we analyze back on Nvidia starting in 1999 , we can count a total of 10 death crosses that have occurred, and 9 have been immediately followed by downtrends. Although a single death cross did not have an immediate downtrend, shortly after this event (approx. 282 days) another death cross formed and price then fell roughly twice as it historically has , almost appearing to make up for the missed signal. From a quantitative perspective: If we calculate the raw historical success rate using: Raw Success Rate = 9/10 = 90 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 90% In order to avoid overconfidence we can apply Laplace smoothing using: Smoothed Probability = 9+1/10+2 = 10/12 or 0.8333 With this calculation the observed success of 65/200 EMA death crosses correlating to an immediate downtrend is 83% Given the results of the data I personally feel that there is a Very High (83%) chance this death cross that recently formed on the 1 Day chart (around 04/16/2025) will immediately lead to a downtrend. And a Low (17%) chance it does not. Furthermore these results support a technical analysis hypothesis that I formed prior. Many different systemic factors can contribute to the market movement, but mathematics sometimes leave subtle clues. Will the market become bearish? Or will Nvidia gain renewed bullish interest? Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by TRADEABLESKUNK
5
Short term TSLA Price best guess road mapattached a TSLA trading road map; It will be fun to see if this is how things play out.short term: 1st try arrow now starting Mon small pullback,  start up Tuesday  peak by May 2? Then pullback  Starting May 2-3 Mid Mayto 288 chop for a week then back up  ( if the market tanks to new lows then the red alternate arrow is more likely as all stocks strong and weak  are sold.)    If TSLA holds 288 area then back up By July1 into about to early July (2nd try arrow)If iTSLA can do this and broad market isn't a mess then 400 will be reached in months ahead
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by mukCL
$MSFT : A 'Teflon' stock refusing to budge under pressureI promised multiple times that a detailed analysis of NASDAQ:MSFT will be published. Its time, today we analyze the levels to watch for and the future price points in this stock. A large cap stock like NASDAQ:MSFT is a difficult ship to navigate. During the recent turbulence the stock lost almost 33% of its value. Even during these times, it never broke below the prior cycle highs of 345 $ in contrast to other MAG7 stocks like NASDAQ:TSLA which then led to more than 50% downturn in the stock. But as the headline says NASDAQ:MSFT is Teflon stock with resistance to go down. In the weekly chart we see that the stock never broke below the midpoint of the upward sloping regression band channel which is @ 375 $. Now where does the stock go from here? If we plot the Fib levels on NASDAQ:MSFT we see that it is firmly at 0.382 which lies at 392 $. Next level is at 415 $, and we have an earning catalyst upcoming for NASDAQ:MSFT and if the stock closes above 425 $ then we can easily touch 422 $. Verdict : NASDAQ:MSFT keep on DCAing. Earnings quality with low volatility.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by RabishankarBiswal
TSLAThe Future of Tesla Stocks: 2025 Outlook Current Situation As of late April 2025, Tesla (TSLA) is trading at approximately $284.95, with notable volatility Bullish scenarios: Some forecasts see TSLA reaching $360 or even as high as $800.70 by year-end, especially if Tesla executes well on new products and technology. Bearish scenarios: More cautious analysts, such as those at Wells Fargo, warn of a possible drop toward $130 if deliveries and margins disappoint, citing intense competition and slowing demand. Most forecasts for 2025 fall between $284 and $800, highlighting high uncertainty and volatility in the stock’s outlook. Key Drivers for Tesla’s Stock Performance 1. Vehicle Deliveries and Production Tesla is expected to deliver between 1.95 million and 2.5 million vehicles in 2025, with growth driven by new models like the Cybertruck and more affordable vehicles. Any production setbacks or failure to meet targets could pressure the stock. 2. Technological Innovation Success in rolling out Full Self-Driving (FSD) features and the anticipated Robotaxi service could be transformative, potentially boosting profit margins and investor sentiment. However, delays or regulatory hurdles could dampen optimism. 3. Competition and Market Share Tesla faces growing competition from legacy automakers and new EV entrants, especially in China and Europe. Its EV market share has slipped below 50% in key regions, raising concerns about sustaining growth. 4. Financial Performance Revenue is projected to grow by 17.5% to $117.2 billion in 2025, with EPS also expected to rise. Margins are under pressure due to price cuts and rising costs, a key risk factor. 5. External and Market Risks Macroeconomic conditions, such as interest rates and consumer demand, will influence stock performance. CEO Elon Musk’s leadership and public perception remain influential but can also be a source of volatility. Long-Term Potential: Despite short-term risks, many analysts consider Tesla a strong long-term play due to its innovation and brand strength. Conclusion The future of Tesla stock in 2025 is highly uncertain, with forecasts ranging from significant gains to steep declines. Key factors include delivery growth, technological breakthroughs, margin management, and competitive pressures. While the long-term outlook remains positive for many analysts, short-term risks and volatility should not be underestimated. Investors should monitor Tesla’s execution on new products, regulatory developments, and broader market trends for directional cues.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Shavyfxhub
PEPG Setup: EMA 50 Rejection Continues, Support Levels in FocusRespecting the EMA 50 wall here and keeping a close eye on key support levels as the setup continues to play out. Important observation: Price action has consistently failed at the EMA 50 resistance level -- a pattern that's played out multiple times now, including the most recent rejection. In the current skittish environment, no real reason to expect this time to be any different. I’ve also highlighted two key support levels: S-1 at $1.18 S-2 at the 52-week low of $0.88 I've traded in and out of this name a few times with solid profits simply by respecting the technicals and price action. Just sharing the setup, FWIW. Staying disciplined in this market matters. Stay tuned. 👀
NASDAQ:PEPG
by BluntForceOptions
PINDUODUO Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 042525Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 94/61.80% Chart time frame: D A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: A A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:PDD
by fibonacci6180
Break Out or Fall Back or Fluctuate?SOFI has made its third contact on the daily parallel channel, and it has earning this Tuesday. Price has appeared to cycle to the top of the channel and is pressing against a key level 13.10. Stochastic RSI overbought but buyers appear to still have the upper hand, RSI is at a healthy level, and it appears to be rising. CCI level is very strong at 166 and not near 200 reversal levels. If SOFI rises and closes above $13.10, possible targets are 13.48 and 13.87 if it rejects possible price target 12.32. Please be mindful of volume and fake outs. Please observe chart for key levels.
NASDAQ:SOFI
by paper_Trader1775