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12/2/24 - $nu - Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when (LONG)12/2/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NU Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when - is one of the three stonks in latam that i've commented in the past is worth keeping a v close eye on b/c of the growth rates and tremendous product. the others are NASDAQ:MELI and NASDAQ:DLO (the latter of which worked out nicely and we made a good exit earlier this year from the lows, but it took a minute). - back to Nubank: 1/ brazil in earlier innings of economic funeral, but what's new this happens every so often and those battle tested growers tend to come out of these events eating massive share, Nu will be one of these 2/ timing is always the tricky thing. you want to take calculated risk, but unlike the US stonks, you have clear geo/ FX and therefore adverse flows risk to consider. invest in emerging mkts and you need to have a tolerance/ knowledge of currency risk, minimally. i'm not going to downplay that here, but only to flag this needs to be something you consider if/when considering a stake in $nu. the counter point is they're growing bananas outside of Brazil as well and likely take over pretty much over every other latam country similar to Meli. IMO, there's no competition for the growth engine they can export into latam. 3/ let's math and use two approaches... PE and ROE -> book value a1. PE: let's imagine the 62c next year (in USD) is 50c - only a 15% growth. the reason you'd look at this is b/c most investors r going to be focused here, so you stand the chance of risk-evaluating what others see and making a call (similar to support and resistance vs. some esoteric TA you've developed). in this vein, what would you pay for a 15% EPS grower (ignoring all other factors of what this biz is and only considering it's a bank in Latam)? maybe 10-12x? def sub 1x PEG. b/c it's brazil, brazil is currently fukt. so you put a "depressed multiple" on a depressed EPS. at call it 50c and 10x - you're at $5 bucks. sick downside from the $12 it closed at today. so that's probably *worst* case, from today's POV. let's call that -60%. diddy slip and slide party pain. a.2: PE: but this isn't some "new kid on the block". a lot of Nu investors are smart int'l types that are going to look beyond trough '25, even today, including papi warren B. so if we assume we pick up from 15% toward 20% the following year and go 50c -> 60c, you'd probably start to consider at that point at least a PEG of 1x given growth would extend to the following yrs as well. at 20x on 60c you're at $12 for year-end '26. and let's give it a 15% discount (Ke brazil finger in air - but likely in the ballpark) and you get to $10 and change for the 12M view e.g. YE25, which is the bogey we're all looking at today given we're already done w/ '24. so that's 20% downside. combining a.1 and a.2 above... i'd likely weight a.2 as being perhaps a 70% and a.1 as 30% given the logic described, investor base and this isn't some going concern issue. also i'm being mega conservative w/ my EPS estimates as well. if you haven't noticed, they keep ripping the cover off the ball on EPS. so combined that's -60%*30% + -20%*70% = 33% downside more or less or a $8 stonk. b: ROE thinking. 25% ROEs (probably expanding) and growing book at probably ~$1/shr for the next 2 yrs combined gets you to a book of $5. when you consider this likely continues to grow nearly 15-20% a year... and we could be conservative and say it's 10% a year (cut it more than in half)... at a 15% Ke you get: Price = BookVal * (ROE - g)/(Ke - g) then discount 2 yrs by 15%. this is Price = $5 * (25 - 10)/(15 - 10)/1.15/1.15 = $11+ today. tying this all together... fair value is probably between 10 and 11 today. so buying $12 is defn being a bit opportunistic and playing a reversion move on BRL related assets. i'd not be surprised to see this thing move back toward $13/14 into year end, and equally i'd not be surprised to see it test the big green dilly from Aug 5 this year that ripped thru $10. So, it's not an obvious trade for those who don't know this asset or haven't been following that closely. perhaps easier to wait for better entry even if that means some chop here/ there and you get a bit of fomo if first move is up. The way i'm personally playing it are $10 and $11 strike 2027 leaps. allows me to amp my exposure without necking out too hard on a notional cash-in basis. offers about 3-1 leverage, so a 1.5-2% options position gets me a gross effective of about 5-6%. that's comfy for now. i'd like to get this position closer to 10-15% if/when we hit the $10s area or below (and it will be one to manage b/c *WHY* we go there will matter a lot - not just a rote plan, these things always evolve and perhaps there are other better deals out there too esp in the US or my favs NASDAQ:NXT , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:META ). anyway. wanted to flag. should be on your radar. this is a quality LT compounder that's gotten cheap b/c of geography, but is a neo-bank virus to the existing dino's in latam. LMK what u think or esp if u see it differently. have a good week my friends V
NYSE:NULong
by VROCKSTAR
$AMD BuyThe chart of NASDAQ:AMD , combined with its latest fundamental research, provides a detailed overview of the stock’s current position and outlook. Technical Analysis: NASDAQ:AMD is currently in a corrective phase, testing critical support levels. The price is approaching significant support around **$120**, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, with deeper support near **$92**, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement and a long-term moving average. These levels are historically strong areas where buyers could re-enter the market. Momentum indicators such as **RSI** and **Stochastic Oscillator** are showing oversold conditions, signaling a potential reversal upward. The **MACD** remains bearish but hints at a possible shift in momentum. The long-term trend remains upward, with the current price action indicating the stock is near a potential turning point. Fundamental Analysis: Recent financial performance highlights NASDAQ:AMD 's strength. In Q3 2024, revenue grew by **17.82% year-over-year**, driven by strong demand across its product lines. Net income increased by **157.86%**, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency. Despite these positives, NASDAQ:AMD faces challenges. It is trailing Nvidia in the AI GPU market, limiting its ability to capture a significant share of this high-growth sector. Additionally, a potential slowdown in the PC market could pressure revenue growth. However, NASDAQ:AMD continues to benefit from Intel’s struggles, while growth opportunities in the data center and custom chip markets remain strong. Synthesis: The current correction in NASDAQ:AMD 's price reflects market concerns over its competitive position in the AI sector and potential softness in PC demand. However, the company’s robust financial performance and opportunities in high-growth areas like data centers suggest that this correction may be temporary. Key support levels at **$120 and $92** are critical to monitor for potential long-term entry points. Conclusion: While NASDAQ:AMD faces near-term challenges, its strong financials, market positioning, and growth potential in high-performance computing present a positive long-term outlook. If the stock holds the current support levels, it could regain momentum, with significant upside potential in the coming years.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by FairValueBuffet
ACHR Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown with Key Level!The **30-minute chart** for **ACHR** highlights a **symmetrical triangle breakdown**, indicating bearish momentum. - **Entry**: $8.32 (yellow line - breakdown level) - **Stop Loss (SL)**: $7.75 (white line - key support) - **Target 1 (T1)**: $9.30 (red line - immediate resistance) - **Target 2 (T2)**: $10.55 (green line - major resistance level) The price is breaking below key support levels with strong volume, suggesting potential for further downside. Watch for price action near $8.32 to confirm the trend. #ACHR #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #NYSE #StockMarket #BearishTrend
NYSE:ACHRLong
by Xeeshan79
NVIDIA (NVDA): Post-Earnings Battle Between Bulls and BearsIt is getting harder for $NVDA. Nvidia's earnings appear to have produced a muted market reaction for once. The chip maker's blowout quarterly report was good enough to support the stock but not provide another leg to its stunning rally. By any normal measure Nvidia's third-quarter numbers were stunning, as it nearly doubled its revenue from the prior year. However, its guidance wasn't as strong as some analysts had expected. Which is incredibly if you think that doubling its revenue is not enough for Nvidia to surge higher once more. Attention will now turn to the rollout of Nvidia's Blackwell artificial-intelligence chips Our attention will stay on the chart and we can see this kind of market behaviour in the chart really well. It seems as if bulls and bears are now battling about this earnings report and there are definitely some people trapped with option calls on NVIDIA that they have bought before the earnings. NASDAQ:NVDA has build somewhat of a trend channel and keeps on defending the lower edge of it very well in the past. The question now is if the wave ((iv)) is already finished or not. With the fact that NASDAQ:NVDA is loosing momentum on the RSI but still being able to reclaim the VAL and putting in higher highs we think is is very likely that we are seeing some kind of pullback/blowout of those positions that have been opened and trapped at the all time high now. Still NASDAQ:NVDA is a stock that can put in 10% next week and nobody would be astonished. Therefore we are moving our stop loss from our current open position to 114.50$ and setting alerts for a possible buying opportunity again on $NVDA.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Tesla (TSLA): Profits Taken, Pullback AnticipatedWhat a rise by NASDAQ:TSLA ! The stock has now reached the targeted wave 3 zone, and we might see some asset rotation out of Tesla into underperforming stocks that could attract renewed attention and capital inflows. Many traders have booked significant profits on NASDAQ:TSLA , and larger players are likely to do the same in the coming sessions. As usual, our focus remains on building a new position during a pullback. We are targeting the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which should provide sufficient support for another push higher, potentially toward $585 or more. A key level to watch is the old all-time high. Should bulls defend it effectively, waiting for an entry at $371.35 might leave us sidelined. However, we see no reason to force or rush an entry into NASDAQ:TSLA at the moment. Patience remains critical as we wait for the market to come to us.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
BBAI: The Next Big AI StockThe AI industry has captured alot of interest from many investors and traders alike. After the most recent massive rally on Sounhound , for a whopping 400% , we may potentially see a rotation into other AI players such as Big Bear. BigBear.ai is a technology and analytics company specializing in artificial intelligence (AI) solutions for decision support and predictive analytics. The company focuses on providing AI-driven tools and insights to support data-driven decision-making, particularly in complex and high-stakes environments. BigBear.ai serves industries such as defense, healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics, offering services that include: Predictive Analytics: Helping organizations anticipate future scenarios by analyzing patterns and trends. Data Integration: Combining data from multiple sources for a unified and actionable perspective. AI-Driven Decision Support: Leveraging machine learning and advanced algorithms to guide strategic planning. Simulation and Modeling: Creating virtual scenarios to test outcomes and optimize decision-making. The company's solutions are designed to enhance operational efficiency, improve situational awareness, and enable smarter, faster decisions. At the moment, we have several indicators pointing to potentially higher prices including the anchored vwap of the low, as well as a value area breakout and massive triangle breakout. Lets see how it plays out
NYSE:BBAILong
by afurs1
3
AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend. Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles. The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD. In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006. Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
NYSE:AESShort
by AFCapital21
ADBE bear trend ADBE is in a deep bearish trend since its earnings Fundamentally its a very strong stock based on its earnings and future outlook It is easily heading towards the strong support and psychological bottom of 433 - 434 Entry can be done now or at 433 - 434 levels Or for safe entry 592 is an entry which confirms a long term bear trend channel being broken below 434 is a dark era for ADBE then next level is 383 which I dont think it should reach , expect a solid bounce from 440 430 levels Stop loss should be 380 if you enter at 430 440 levels
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by vortexTradingSolutions
$GNS Breakout pendingIt's hard not to be bullish on $GNS. Bitcoin reaching all time highs and a AMEX:GNS holding over 200 of them, having paid circa $93,500 for them provides an immediate return on that investment. I like what the company have planned for Jan 2025, with its education platforms. At a price of less than a dollar per share, this appeals greatly to me. That combined with the chart set up. In a long downward channel, I expect any breakout to be violent. When you look at the daily, I see a bullflag forming. IF this is correct, my personal first target will be $2. Likely then a backtest before a lot more upside moving to ~$3.80. The volume has been drying up, which is what we want to see in a bullflag. At 70c this is a good gamble in my eyes. I'll be waiting for either 2 daily closes, 1% or 3% break of trend for confirmation. Not financial advice.
AMEX:GNSLong
by k_trades11
NFLX pullback to $803MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level VBSM is positive Price at 4.618 Fibonacci level Down from $876.75 Target is $803 or channel bottom will manually stop loss
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by chancethepug
9
Z tags $85, pulls back to $75MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at or near top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level VBSM is spiked positive Price at or near Fibonacci level Buying a put if price reaches $85 Target is $75 or channel bottom Stop loss is TBD
NASDAQ:ZShort
by chancethepug
2
META pullback to $586MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. 2HR CHART (expect target to hit THIS WEEK) Price at or above top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level VBSM is spiked positive Price at or near 3.618 Fibonacci level Target is $586 or channel bottom
NASDAQ:METAShort
by chancethepug
10
AVGO Bullish and bearish at the same timeAVGO had an amazing Gap up opening due to fantabulous earnings and guidance related to AI . Looking at historic trend AVGO always fill the gap up openings by bearish moment At this point in time AVGO is in bear trend and looking to fill the gap but we can give AVGO benefit of doubt and it seems like 212 is a very strong support as well Entry advice Buy at 212 or 212 when it bounces off that support Second entry can be at 185 as that is a very strong support and will bounce off from that support level Stop loss 155
NASDAQ:AVGOLong
by vortexTradingSolutions