SMCI hit its 1W MA50, eyes a massive break-out.Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) has surged more than +15% today after the company announced a multi-year, $20 billion partnership with Saudi data center firm DataVolt.
Technically that brought it on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the first contact with it since the week of February 18 2025, which was the previous Top. The current rally as well as the one that led to the Feb 18 Top, is fueled by the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) which held as Support on both occasions.
The driving pattern behind those Bullish Legs is a Channel Up (blue) and this is not the first time SMCI comes across such formation. It was in fact a similar Channel Up that took the stock from the 2022 bottom of the Inflation Crisis and guided it to its new Bull Cycle. That rose by +950% before it pulled back on its first consolidation.
As a result, we have a short-term Target at $80.00 and after a pull-back, long-term Target at $180.00 (+950% from the bottom).
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5/14/25 - $spir - I'm not convinced ST5/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SPIR
I'm not convinced ST
- stock seemed to get ahead of last print
- this is a high capex biz so it needs to see obvious sales pickup to offset the high capex AND opex costs for leverage... once u see leverage... this is 0 marginal cost stuff
- i've also been seeing enterprise co's talk about reduced clarity on new contracts, delay in bookings while their customers get a handle on what current environment allows them to budget for spend.
- so while i like the idea of this product and its usefulness, in a weird macro... i don't think the incremental spend on this category/ data is the right zip code, and then you layer on valuation is not cheap and it's not like the co is generating substantial (any) cash w ST visibility.
- more of a short, but i won't be mean
- but i'm just staying away. not interested. gl to longs tho and pls lmk if i've been too crude in my armchair analysis or missed something incrementally important. always happy to change my tune as knowledge changes!
V
5/14/25 - $dlo - Small position into print...5/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DLO
Small position into print...
- I've written about this one in the past, but was out around these levels, uninvolved last print, and am now coming back to the table.
- I'm positioned in a way where if the stock is down "big" - call it 15-20%... i will dive in deep and make a call about sizing large. if it's down 5-10%, i stay pat (on my 2026 options) and assess with small size. if it's up... let's see.
- obviously my bias is that given the nearly 15-20 days of short cover in this current tape... and a mgmt team that i trust... and partnerships that keep coming... and perception (seemingly) that this quarter "won't be great" the setup is probably skewed +ve. i have no particular edge on the q, to be clear.
- in fact, thinking high level... given all these chinese relationships these guys have to pump product ROW (in addition to big tech names), there could be an incentive to grow elsewhere which should ultimately benefit DLO. Latam is also doing quite well on it's own. Look at MELI and NU... Brazil is important.
- ultimately i think nothing has really changed in my thinking that this is a 20-30 stock in time as compounding works its way through the model. and given the covfefe we've dealt with in the last month(s) this hasn't really been a play i've wanted to engage with. but now back green on the year, given the setup, i'm willing to take a 25 bps (4-1 leveraged so 1%) punt.
flagging, if it's of interest or you know more and want to talk me off the ledge (or get me to jump higher ;)
V
PLMR Seasonality Idea till end of augustHey guys,
this is a more statistical try.
Given the Seasonality indicator you can the the potential for NASDAQ:PLMR in the months from may to august.
I calcuted four different cases.
1. red line: worst case scenario (-19.05%)
2. green line: best case scenario (+122,11%)
3. yellow line: average scenario (+42,83%)
4. purple line: all cases average scenario (+40,32%)
I calculated chances in Excel using the Min, Max and Averages of all months.
For example best case scenario:
May historical maximum win + June historical maximum win + July historical maximum win + August historical maximum win
or
min-min-min-min in worst case scenario.
Greetings
J.
$AAPL laggard to the upside?All of the tech stocks recently have had a large moves to the upside, yet Apple has yet to have one. I think Apple is lagging the other names and is likely to have the same kind of move to the upside.
I rarely trade short term, but this one seems like a good setup.
I took a trade for 6/6 $235C to express this view.
Let's see if it plays out.
BA (Boeing Co.) – Trade Setup Alert🚀✈️ A major new defense contract is on the horizon — and if confirmed, it could skyrocket BA’s valuation to new heights. This could be the catalyst that propels the stock far beyond its current range.
Boeing is showing renewed strength with a bullish setup developing. With multiple entry points and solid upside targets, this trade offers compelling potential for swing traders and long-term investors alike.
📌 Entry Points:
1️⃣ Market Price
2️⃣ $162
3️⃣ $147
🎯 Profit Targets:
✅ $200
✅ $230
✅ $260
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading involves risk. Please do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AAPL Trade Plan – 2025 Outlook📊With global markets reacting to renewed tariff talk from Trump, Apple (AAPL) NASDAQ:AAPL could face short-term volatility—but that’s also opportunity. As fears of a trade war ripple across Asia and Europe, AAPL may temporarily dip, especially with supply chain exposure in China.🍏📉📈
📌 Entry Zones (Buy the fear, not the panic):
1️⃣ 194 – Light entry as weakness sets in
2️⃣ 180 – Strong support historically
3️⃣ 166 – High-conviction zone if macro panic escalates
🎯 Profit Targets (Scale out as strength returns):
✅ 209 – Quick recovery zone
✅ 230 – Pre-fear valuation
✅ 260+ – Full macro recovery with bullish momentum
📈 Strategy: Let the news create emotion. You trade the levels.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Just sharing my personal trading plan based on current macro trends and technicals. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
AMZN: A Power Move for the Smart Trader | The Rebound Play?🚀 AMZN 2025 Trade Plan
After an early 2025 rally to $240+, Amazon (AMZN) has pulled back sharply to around $167, opening the door to what could be one of the most attractive rebound setups of the year.
With AWS still growing strong and net income nearly doubling in 2024, the fundamentals are on Amazon’s side. Add to that bullish analyst outlooks pointing to $226–$253 this year, and we might just be looking at a golden entry zone.
📌 Entry Points:
Start building a position at $167
Add more if it dips toward $160 or $151 (52-week low)
🎯 Profit Targets for 2025:
First stop: $210
Next: $226
Final push? $240+
This setup blends technical recovery with strong financials and long-term bullish sentiment. Patience, discipline, and solid risk management are key as AMZN finds its footing.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading involves risk. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before investing.
ELV Swing Trade Setup - May 2025Fundamentally undervalued with a strong balance sheet, consistent earnings beats, and a low P/E ratio. Recent drop (~33% from 52-week highs) appears overdone relative to earnings strength likely due to short-term Medicaid cost concerns, not long-term deterioration.
📊 Position Type:
✅ Swing Trade to Core Position
Start small and build over time if technicals stabilize. Could evolve into a 6–12 month hold depending on market environment and how the stock reacts to future earnings or policy updates.
Entry Zone:
📍$380-360
📍$340
📍$300
Profit Targets
🎯 TP1: $415
🎯 TP2: $445
🎯 TP3: $500+
📌 Final Word
ELV is trading near a critical support zone after a 30% drop, yet it keeps delivering solid earnings. With strong cash flow and a powerful Carelon segment, this could be one of the best risk-reward setups in healthcare right now.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research before investing.
RKLB Gap Down Earnings Reversal Play + Flag BreakoutTwo powerful setups are in play here, and both are primed for action:
🔹 Setup 1: Earnings Gap Down Reversal (Kicker Candle)
Post-earnings flush, buyers stepped in hard — this has been a relentless pattern in this market.
Even on earnings misses, buyers are aggressive. We saw the same setup work beautifully on NASDAQ:TEM and NYSE:HIMS recently.
This is a kicker candle setup — strong reversal signal after a gap down flush.
🔹 Setup 2: Flag Breakout at $23.50
Price is coiling into a tight flag, with a breakout level at $23.50.
Risk is defined, with stops at $22, keeping the trade tight.
🔹 My Trading Plan:
1️⃣ Initial Position: Buying May 30th $25 Calls today.
2️⃣ Risk Management: Stop at $22 for the calls and underlying stock.
3️⃣ Add Size: On a clean breakout over $23.50.
🔹 Why This Setup is Hot:
The earnings gap down reversal has been a killer setup in this market — buyers are dominating.
Dual setup means two chances to win: Reversal + Flag Breakout.
Tight risk, with a clear invalidation at $22.
⚠️ Risk Management: Tight stop at $22 — this is a LOW-risk, high-reward setup.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Software-Driven Growth Meets AI Hardware ECompany Overview:
Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO is undergoing a strategic transformation—shifting from a hardware-centric model to a hybrid software and subscription platform. The VMware acquisition is proving pivotal, reshaping AVGO’s margin profile and deepening its enterprise moat.
🔑 Growth Catalysts:
💻 VMware Integration = High-Margin Recurring Revenue
70%+ of top 10,000 VMware customers already moved to subscription model
Transition boosts revenue visibility, margin expansion, and valuation multiples
Strong cross-sell opportunities within Broadcom’s enterprise base
⚙️ Custom AI Chips – A Key NVIDIA Hedge
Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators offer an alternative amid export curbs
Strong demand from hyperscalers and cloud players (Amazon, Google, Meta)
Positioned as a strategic silicon supplier in the AI infrastructure stack
📶 Diversification = Resilience
Deep reach across networking, broadband, storage, and wireless
Reduced cyclicality vs. pure-play semiconductor firms
Balanced between enterprise software and hardware demand
🛡️ Geopolitical Edge
Broadcom’s chip solutions provide alternatives in regions impacted by U.S.-China tech tensions
VMware’s software suite ensures relevance in multi-cloud and hybrid IT environments
📊 Financial Highlights:
Consistent double-digit free cash flow growth
EBITDA margin expansion via software scale and cost synergy post-VMware
Shareholder-friendly with strong buybacks and dividend growth
📈 Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $165.00–$170.00
🚀 Upside Target: $270.00–$280.00
🎯 Thesis: With AI tailwinds, VMware synergies, and rising recurring revenues, Broadcom is evolving into a software+silicon powerhouse—positioned for outsized returns and resilience in volatile markets.
#Broadcom #AVGO #VMware #AIchips #Semiconductors #EnterpriseSoftware #RecurringRevenue