TSLA: Uptrend channel bounce, trading between 50 and 200-day SMAHey guys/gals!
So we all know that Tesla took a massive drop last week. It fell about 14%, and was down even 3% after hours at one point. I think we can all agree this crash wasn't technicals driven - it was clearly headline impacted. This was a clear black swan even t, and even in my case, nothing like this has ever happened to me as a trader. It was unforeseeable, forced me to hedge overnight and I'm still having nightmares (lol). Definitely one to remember as I don't think something like this would happen with any other stock. Tesla is truly unique in this sense.
But looking at the bigger picture, the bounce that we experienced on Friday must've been technicals driven, and psychologically influenced, as I am almost certain that the crash was a massive overreaction. People woke up the next day and thought this was severely discounted over a couple social media tweets (I won't go into the politics of things).
As you see on the chart, Tesla may in a new upward channel. At first I figured this may be a bear flag, however due to the upcoming catalyst like the Robotaxi launch - this would likely only be a bear flag if prices crashes below the lower support trend line.
As long as price is within the channel, I'd say things are holding up. We'd likely see a jump towards the upper side of the channel - however it's important to note that $300 and £360 are major resistance points. Robotaxi launch and any future tweets will definitely move price, and I think those will be a factor in determining whether price goes up or crashes below the trend line.
Another thing to point out is that price is currently trading between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day SMA is acting as vital support, whereas the 200-day SMA is the resistance. If there is a break above the 200-day SMA, price will likely go higher. The opposite may happen if price crashes below the 50-day SMA.
Either way, headlines and technicals mentioned above will continue to influence price.
Note: not financial advice.
When Intuition Beats the Algorithm█ When Gut Feeling Beats the Bot: How Experience Can Improve Algorithmic Trading
In today’s world of fast, data-driven trading, we often hear that algorithms and rules-based systems are the future. But what happens when you mix that with a trader’s intuition, the kind that only comes from years of watching charts and reading price action?
A recent study has some surprising results: A seasoned discretionary trader (someone who trades based on what they see and feel, not just rules) was given a basic algorithmic strategy. The twist? He could override the signals and use his instincts. The result? He turned a losing system into a winning one, big time.
█ What Was the Experiment?
Researchers Zarattini and Stamatoudis (2024) wanted to test whether a skilled trader’s experience could boost a mechanical system. They took 9,794 stock “gap up” events from 2016 to 2023, where a stock opens much higher than the day before, and let the trader pick which ones looked promising.
⚪ To make it fair:
All charts were anonymized — no names, no news, no distractions.
The trader had only the price action to guide his choices.
He could also manage open trades — adjusting stop-losses, profit targets, and position sizing based on what the price was doing.
⚪ The Trading Setup
█ What Did They Find?
The trader only selected about 18% of all the gap-ups. But those trades performed far better than the full list. Here's what stood out:
Without stop-losses, the basic strategy lost money consistently (down -0.25R after just 8 days).
With the trader involved, profits rose fast, hitting +0.80R just 4 days after entry.
Risk was tightly managed: only 0.25% of capital was risked per trade.
⚪ So what made the difference? The trader could spot things the system missed:
Strong momentum early in a move
Clean breakouts from long sideways ranges
Patterns that had real follow-through, not just random gaps
He avoided weak setups and managed trades like a pro, cutting losers, letting winners run, and trailing positions with smart stop placements.
⚪ Example
An experienced trader can quickly identify a breakaway gap, when a stock gaps up above a clear resistance level. Unlike random gaps, this setup often signals the start of a strong move. While a system might treat all gaps the same, a skilled trader knows this one has real potential.
█ What Does This Mean for You?
This research shows that trading experience still matters — a lot.
If you’re a systematic trader, adding a discretionary filter (whether it’s your own review or someone else’s) could drastically improve your results. A clean chart read can help you avoid false signals and focus only on the best setups.
If you’re a discretionary trader, this study is proof that your skills can add measurable value. With the right tools and discipline, you don’t need to throw away your instincts, you can combine them with structure and still win.
█ Key Takeaways
⚪ Gut feeling isn’t just noise, trained instincts can spot what rules miss.
⚪ Trade selection matters more than just following every signal.
⚪ Managing risk and exits well is just as important as picking good entries.
⚪ Hybrid trading, rules plus judgment — might be the most powerful combo.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Bullish - StandardAero (SARO)📈 Why I’ve started building a position in StandardAero (SARO)
Some of you have been asking what I’m buying next for my long-term portfolio, so here’s one I’m quietly excited about.
I’ve started accumulating SARO, a relatively new listing (IPO’d Oct 2024) that specialises in aircraft engine and airframe maintenance — known as MRO (maintenance, repair & overhaul). These guys are one of the largest independent MRO providers in the world, with military, commercial, and business aviation clients.
So why SARO?
▶️ First: They’re starting to win serious defence contracts.
They’ve recently secured:
A $315M U.S. Navy engine contract (E-2D Hawkeye)
An $80M turbine engine contract for the U.S. surface fleet
And they’re in line to build Black Hawk helicopters in the UK if the NMH programme goes ahead. That deal alone would create 600+ jobs in Gosport.
▶️ Second: They’re small, but not unknown.
At a $10B market cap, SARO is still tiny compared to defence giants like BAE ($78B). But big money is already circling. The reason I found this opportunity in the first place, is due to monitoring closely 'Theleme Partners' (a hedge fund co-founded by Rishi Sunak before politics) - they just opened a position. So did T. Rowe Price, Two Sigma, and Vanguard.
▶️ Third: Macro tailwinds.
UK and global defence spending is rising rapidly. The UK has pledged to hit 2.5% of GDP by 2027, with a fresh £15B aimed specifically at submarines and nuclear support. If SARO lands even one meaningful UK MoD contract, which is very possible through its UK-based Vector Aerospace arm... it could seriously pay off.
💡 How I’m playing it:
This is a long-term hold for me personally and I’ll look at dollar-cost averaging into my position.
Short-term, I’ve marked targets around $32, $35 and $38 for potential profit-taking zones for those trading shorter holds.
Long-term, I’m holding a big chunk in case we see SARO grow into something much bigger.
It’s not without risk:
🔴 High post-IPO debt
🔴 Execution risk on current contracts
🔴 ... and the gamble that they secure government defence work all need to be considered.
But that’s part of the calculated upside here.
I’m sharing this because I think SARO is an early-stage contender worth watching and one that fits well into a defence-heavy decade ahead.
Curious to know if anyone else is looking at this one?
#LongTermInvesting #DefenceStocks #SARO #MarketInsights #DCA #MRO #UKDefence #InvestingStrategy
Market Update - 6/8/2025• Friday was a solid day, lots of strength especially in the energy, quantum computing and recently construction/industrial names
• A bit concerning is that breadth is very high already which tends to be followed by corrections, but we've been in a correction in small caps for almost a month now
• Good sign to see small caps outperforming large caps on Friday
• Gold and TLT are selling off, so that also confirms risk on mode
• Plus the strength in construction and retail names and the weakness in healthcare names are also pointing towards a risk on mode environment
• Will risk 0.5-0.75% of my account over the next weeks
REGN looks & sounds fundamentally good, all else absolute !!!Using 4 Fundamental metrics:
P/S & P/E, net income & total revenues all sounding like a buying opportunity at these levels but structurally this crash style move is something else one of a kind or i am missing something here ( all else absolute !!!)
$CRWD: Relative outperformance compared to its peersCybersecurity is one of our favorite themes. This is known to all who have been following this blog space. We have been bullish on the tech sector AMEX:XLK and specifically in the sub sectors within the tech sector. Cybersecurity is one of them. Within Cybersecurity we have some stocks which have outperformed the rest of its peers. One such name is Crowdstrike. NASDAQ:CRWD after suffering a 50% correction last year outage which took its price to 200 $ has recovered the loss and has recovered all the losses and then some. The stock is up almost 140% from its lows.
An outperformer in an outperforming sector. In the chart we also look at the ratio between NASDAQ:CRWD to $HACK. The ATH for the ratio chart was 6. Currently we are @ 5.6 in the ratio chart. The price chart of NASDAQ:CRWD alone looks bullish. If we plot the Fib retracement level just before the 2024 downturn then the next level in the price chart is 520 $. My price target is 520 $ before we can target 700 $ in the medium term.
Verdict : Go Long NASDAQ:CRWD for medium to long term. 520 $ first then 700 $.
paypal holding can see its gloriuos days againpay pal has capacity to restore what has been retrace throghout past years if it can hold throuh next 3 weeks. 67$ and 55$ will be significant support at under any circumtances better should not fall. if it can see this targaet after that we coul see if its momentum strong enough to hold for long term like next year
Shopify has been trending steadily since 2022 Q4NASDAQ:SHOP is strongly in a steady uptrend since Oct 2022. Despite some strong correction in Feb 2025, the correction ended in a 3-wave manner before resuming its upside. We believe that the upside is likley to continue as the ascending triangle is strong.
Furthermore, the long and short-term momentum are in unsion, pointing towards a strong bullish momentum. Volume remain healthy.
Stop Hunting for Perfection - Start Managing Risk.Stop Hunting for Perfection — Start Managing Risk.
Hard truth:
Your obsession with perfect setups costs you money.
Markets don't reward perfectionists; they reward effective risk managers.
Here's why your perfect entry is killing your results:
You ignore good trades waiting for ideal setups — they rarely come.
You double-down on losing trades, convinced your entry was flawless.
You're blindsided by normal market moves because you didn’t plan for imperfection.
🎯 Solution?
Shift your focus from entry perfection to risk management. Define your maximum acceptable loss, stick to it, and scale into trades strategically.
TrendGo wasn't built to promise perfect entries. It was built to clarify probabilities and structure risk.
🔍 Stop chasing unicorns. Focus on managing the horses you actually ride.
Breakout brewing 📈 JJSF – Breakout Brewing 🔥
Fundamentals are rock solid: low debt, strong margins, and steady cash flow.
Technicals show bullish accumulation, solid support, and upside momentum.
I’m watching for a breakout toward $130–$140, with $180 as the next major target.
All-time highs could follow. This setup has one of the highest win-rate profiles on my radar.
Is Tesla telling a classic story right on its chart?This looks like a textbook example of Richard Wyckoff's "Creek" analogy. For months, the stock faced a "creek" of selling pressure around the $280-$300 resistance line, turning back any attempt to move higher.
Before the big move, the price "backed up" to a Last Point of Support (LPS) to gather steam—that was the dip we saw back in Phase D. Then came the powerful "Jump Across the Creek," a breakout with strength and volume, launching us into what appears to be Phase E.
But the story isn't over. The sharp pullback we're seeing now isn't necessarily failure. It's the critical "Back-Up to the Edge of the Creek." The stock is testing if the old resistance (the far bank of the creek) will now hold as new support.
The question now is: Does the ground hold for the next launch higher, or does the price fall back into the water? This is the moment of truth.
ASML REVERSAL SHIFT to the upside begins. SEED at 750 X2 Target!ASML Holding N.V. holds a near-monopoly in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the production of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for manufacturing advanced chips. ASML is the sole provider of these machines, making them indispensable for chipmakers like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. This position gives ASML significant control over the global chip supply chain.
ASML an industry leader which has seen consistent multiyear price growth from 300 to tapping a peak at 1100 -- took some much needed hibernation during the trump transitional period, coinciding with the general market.
Now, the stock's red days season is about to meet its end. This month, June 2025, ASML registered its first bear weight clearout based on our diagram conveying an initial prep work for that significant reversal to the upside.
The last bear weight clearout was on December 2022. So you know this current massive shift that transpired this month is very special. This signal is elusive and doesn't come often.
It touched the most bargain 78.6 FIB levels -- the most discounted area where most buyers converge. And its currently manifesting based on the prices the last few days.
Ideal seed is at the current price zone at 750 with mid target at x2.
Flight will be easier now.
With ASML monopolizing the industry -- and with FA and TA aligning, second guessing has no place with regards to the trajectory of this stock.
Spotted at 750
Target at 1400.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
Bullish on TSLA if its stay above 290$ USD**INDICATOR SAY BULL🚀 TESLA (TSLA): The Ultimate Showdown – Bullish Surge or Bearish Collapse? 🚀
Tesla (TSLA) has all eyes locked on it , standing at a crossroads that could dictate its next explosive move. Hovering at $295.14 USD , it’s holding onto the crucial $290 USD support level , a make-or-break zone that could either ignite a spectacular rally or trigger a sharp decline.
🔥 Bulls Are Ready to Take Off: If Tesla defends $290 USD , it’s GAME ON. This level acts as a launchpad—a pressure point where accumulation fuels momentum, setting the stage for a surge toward $460 USD. Investors, traders, and market enthusiasts are all watching for this breakout moment, knowing that breaching higher resistance could spark an avalanche of buy orders. Tesla’s chart suggests a brewing storm of demand, one that could shatter expectations and push the stock into new highs.
⚡ Bears Are Lurking in the Shadows: But danger is never far away. A slip below $290 USD could signal the end of bullish dominance, dragging TSLA into a downward freefall toward $220 USD or even $200 USD . This break would suggest weakening momentum, market hesitation, and potential large-scale selling pressure. Bears will seize the opportunity, forcing Tesla into a recalibration phase—one that could reshape investor sentiment for weeks to come.
🔥 Tesla’s Next Move? A Market-Defining Moment! 🔥
This isn’t just another stock movement—it’s a battle between fear and ambition, bulls and bears, excitement and caution. Tesla is standing on the edge of innovation and volatility, making its current price action one of the most thrilling showdowns in the market today.
Will it skyrocket toward greatness , or will the bears drag it down?
Whatever happens next, one thing is certain— this ride will be unforgettable . Buckle up! 🚀⚡🔥
Let me know if you want even more refinements or additional angles! 😎🔥
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