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$GBIRYY - U.K CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.6% March/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 2.6% in March 2025 from 2.8% in February and below market and the BoE's forecasts of 2.7%. The largest downward contributions came from recreation and culture (2.4% vs 3.4%), mainly games, toys and hobbies (-4.2%) and data processing equipment (-5.1%). Transport also contributed to the slowdown (1.2% vs 1.8%), largely due to a 5.3% fall in motor fuel prices. In addition, prices rose less for restaurants and hotels (3%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 3.4%), mostly accommodation services (-0.6%); housing and utilities (1.8% vs 1.9%); and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3% vs 3.3%). In contrast, the most significant upward contribution came from clothing and footwear (1.1% vs -0.6%), with prices usually rising in March as spring fashions continue to enter the shops. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.3%, slightly below both the previous month’s increase and expectations of 0.4%. Annual core inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$CNGDPYY -China's GDP (Q1/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY 5.4% Q1/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q4 and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. It remained the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years amid Beijing's ongoing stimulus. The latest GDP readings were also buoyed by robust March activity: industrial output rose at its fastest pace since June 2021, retail sales posted the biggest gain in over a year, and the surveyed jobless rate eased from a two-year high. Fixed asset investment also slightly surpassed expectations in the first quarter. On the trade front, exports recorded their strongest growth since October as firms accelerated shipments ahead of looming tariffs, while a drop in imports narrowed. The statistics bureau said the Chinese economy was “off to a good and steady start” and highlighted the growing role of innovation. However, intensifying trade tensions with the U.S. have quickly darkened the outlook, increasing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional support measures.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
Gold Skyrockets Like It's 2011: Are We There Yet?Gold has been on a powerful run since breaking above the 2100 resistance level in March 2024. After just one year of relentless gains and a return of over 60%, it has become one of the top-performing assets. But the big question now is: how far can this rally go? To the moon? It's difficult to predict how far prices can climb during these kinds of parabolic moves. In 2011, the final green monthly bar alone rose 17% from open to high. These FOMO-fueled surges often lead to euphoric tops followed by painful bear markets. So, are we there yet? Since Richard Nixon ended the dollar's gold backing and introduced the modern fiat system, gold's status as a safe haven has become even more prominent. Whenever there are heightened risks, whether geopolitical, fiscal, or related to the fiat money system, investors tend to flock to gold. The 2011 rally was a clear example of this. After the 2008 financial crisis and the quantitative easing that followed, gold became the go-to asset for both preserving value and speculative opportunity. A similar pattern has unfolded following the COVID-19 shock. The Federal Reserve returned to aggressive quantitative easing, while both the Trump and Biden administrations increased fiscal spending, including direct payments to households. This surge in money supply and concerns about fiat stability, along with rising government debt, helped trigger another major gold rally. With the added risk of a trade war, the rally has accelerated further, pushing gold beyond 3300 and creating a situation that closely mirrors 2011. Looking at the money supply-to-gold ratio and the US federal debt-to-gold ratio, gold now appears to be testing trendline levels. Its recent surge has made metrics like M2 and federal debt seem relatively smaller, which may be a sign that the rally is approaching exhaustion. Still, history shows that final euphoric moves can stretch even higher before a true top is formed. Rather than trying to predict the peak, it's often better to wait for signs of price stabilization. Gold typically offers a second opportunity, often forming two peaks with the second lower than the first, before entering a bear phase. In 1980, gold fell more than 60% within two years. After the 2011 top, it declined nearly 40%. Even if the retreat expected to be milder this time, gold could still offer a 20% or greater downside opportunity once the top is in. Smart money has already started to take profits gradually. Net managed money positions in the COT report have decreased by 40% since January, as we discussed in our earlier post:
FRED:M2SL
by ftdsystem
gold and inflation in 1970s stagflation fomc member repeatedly saying this is not stagflation like 1970s but gold bug on social media constantly pump stagflation narrative after gold historic run from $2000 to $3000 in just one year with usa cpi and gold chart in one image you can get idea how gold moved in last stagflation crisis with big political news : when paul volcker comes into fed and when Ronald Reagan wins election gold first makes double top before multi year bear market inflation peaked after volcker get fed control but before election result. is this is really replay of 1970s ? we got same old president trump and same old fed chair powell ✅ biden forced fed to do big size 50bps cut pre election to choose inflation over higher unemployment which is stagflation ✅ in his first term trump in election year March 2020 use covid as excuse to cut 0% and do QE and trillion dollar fiscal policy stimulus check. choosing inflation over high employment which is stagflation but it was biden who has to face most of the inflation spike to 9% ✅trump raise tariff to 100 years high to choose high employment over inflation which is recession ✅ in next 4 years it will be clear is this replay of 70s or not. in future we will have more inflation and gold price data to confirm
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Sangam-Agarwal
India, USA, China - Government Debt to GDP PerformanceIndia’s Fiscal Discipline Stands Out in a High-Debt Global Economy Government Debt to GDP Performance Over the Last 20 Years: China: +217% USA: +99% India: +3% Over the last 2 decades, global economies have increasingly relied on debt to stimulate growth and manage crises. However, a closer look at long-term Debt-to-GDP trends reveals a stark contrast in fiscal discipline among major economies: ----------------------------------------------------------------------- India: A Beacon of Fiscal Stability India has maintained remarkable fiscal discipline, with government debt increasing by just +3% relative to its GDP over the past 20 years. This demonstrates India’s conservative borrowing strategy, especially notable given the country’s ambitious development goals, infrastructure push, and welfare programs. This level of restraint positions India well in the face of rising global interest rates and inflation risks. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- USA: Steady Climb Amid Stimulus Spending The United States has seen a +99% increase in its debt-to-GDP ratio over the same period, driven by successive rounds of stimulus, defense spending, and entitlement obligations. While the U.S. enjoys the unique advantage of issuing the world’s reserve currency, the long-term implications of rising debt—especially as interest payments rise—pose potential challenges to fiscal sustainability. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- China: Debt-Fueled Expansion China’s debt-to-GDP has surged +217% over the past two decades, reflecting its aggressive infrastructure-led growth model and significant off-balance-sheet local government borrowing. While this has powered China's rapid urbanization and industrial growth, the mounting debt burden raises questions about long-term efficiency, default risks in the shadow banking sector, and the need for deleveraging. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 🔍 Key Insights: 1) India’s 3% debt growth over 20 years highlights an underleveraged economy, offering headroom for targeted fiscal expansion if needed. 2) In a world where debt sustainability is becoming a key investment theme, India stands out as a relatively safer macro environment. 3) This fiscal prudence complements India’s improving trade metrics and strengthens its position in global economic leadership. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 📈 Conclusion: As the global economy grapples with inflation, rising interest rates, and debt concerns, India’s modest rise in government debt is a key macro strength. While China and the USA have seen significant increases in their debt burdens, India’s fiscal balance provides confidence to both investors and policymakers for future growth cycles. This makes India an attractive long-term investment destination in a world of rising uncertainty.
ECONOMICS:USGDGLong
by Atmiya_aatubhai
India, USA, China - Trade Deficit Performance after Covid PhaseIndia’s Trade Deficit Nearing a Turning Point – Strong Growth Amid Global Shifts Trade Deficit Performance Over the Last 5 Years: India: -10% USA: -215% China: +359% Over the past five years, global trade dynamics have shifted significantly, with India showing promising signs of a turnaround in its trade performance. India: A Rounding Bottom Pattern? India’s trade deficit has improved by -10% over the last five years, hinting at a potential rounding bottom pattern that could transition into a trade surplus in the coming years. This positive shift comes despite global economic headwinds, positioning India as a resilient and emerging export player. USA: Longer Road to Recovery In contrast, the United States has seen its trade deficit worsen by -215%, suggesting a deeper structural challenge in its trade balance. While the U.S. economy remains strong in other metrics, its export-import imbalance will likely take more time and policy adjustments to stabilize. China: The Export Powerhouse slowdown after Tariffs sanctions ? China continues to dominate with a staggering +359% improvement in its trade surplus over the past five years, solidifying its position as the world’s top exporter. However, rising global tariffs and geopolitical tensions could gradually redirect supply chains. 🌏 Macro Implications: Tariff Realignment: As global companies look to diversify away from China amid escalating tariffs and political tensions, India is emerging as a key beneficiary. This realignment could significantly bolster India’s export sector. India’s Growth Story: With structural reforms, expanding manufacturing capabilities, and supportive government policies like PLI (Production-Linked Incentives), India is well-positioned to capture a larger share of global trade flows. Global Slowdown, Local Resilience: Despite a global economic slowdown, India’s improving trade dynamics signal strong internal momentum and a maturing economy. 📈 Conclusion: India is on the cusp of a major trade shift. While China remains the global leader in exports and the USA faces growing imbalances, India’s improving trade performance, geopolitical advantage, and manufacturing push make it a compelling long-term trade and investment story. Amid Tariffs war and global economy slowdown, India's growth story continues...
ECONOMICS:CNEXPLong
by Atmiya_aatubhai
4
$USIRYY -United States CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY (March/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US eased for a second consecutive month to 2.4% in March 2025, the lowest since September, down from 2.8% in February, and below forecasts of 2.6%. Prices for gasoline (-9.8% vs -3.1%) and fuel oil (-7.6% vs -5.1%) fell more while natural gas prices soared (9.4% vs 6%). Inflation also slowed for shelter (4% vs 4.2%), used cars and trucks (0.6% vs 0.8%), and transportation (3.1% vs 6%) while prices were unchanged for new vehicles (vs -0.3%). On the other hand, inflation accelerated for food (3% vs 2.6%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI decreased 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, compared to expectations of a 0.1% gain. The index for energy fell 2.4%, as a 6.3% decline in gasoline more than offset increases in electricity (0.9%) and natural gas (3.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation eased to 2.8%, the lowest since March 2021, and below forecasts of 3%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI edged up 0.1%, below expectations of 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY March/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices. Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
4/8/25 - one more i keep staring at. i'll keep it short!One more from me tonight, friends, I keep staring at this chart which plots (the scatter-like print) ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and also shows the S&P adjusted by M2 (purple). I believe one or the other is likely true. 1/ we're in the middle of a mega bull run that began in '09 and never really ended, given low rates, tons of tech-led innovation (with cash flows) and the current correction is a pause (similar to the GREEN ARROW in '98) before continuing much higher and with rates remaining high and potentially even headed incrementally higher as stocks climb the wall of worry. 2/ we're undergoing a WTF growth scare, a geopol reordering, inability to look through for many months (or even a year) and causing such a financial meltdown that rates will be forced to head back to zero and stocks maybe undergo another 20-30% lower (the FROWNY FACES). My guess is it's #1. - the current spat is Trump-induced. - it's not a meltdown of credit markets (well... yet...) - there's not a fake _____ (event of any sort) causing freak out - and also... unlike dotcom, which ran HARD, we've had some pullbacks along the way in this recent multi-year run, testing the thesis... notably mar '20 and end '22. these tech leaders are v cash generative and there's a good reason to believe they'll continue to gain strength all this would translate into a massive run into '28, if #1 is correct. so now that we're in pure correlation 1, margin call territory etc. etc. we have the "can't look through, need help or some resolution event" so once that resolution comes. we probably boot, rally, retest. and rip. hard to do this on leverage b/c V might not be the shape of recovery (at least that's not how i'd play it, i still prefer to use deep ITM LEAPS for some flex) but let's see. this chart has my attention once again. V
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by VROCKSTAR
The strength in the move in credit spreads is thought provokingThe strength of the move in credit spreads since the week of Jan 20th is really unusual. Even during Covid when spreads really widened in a short amount of time the "strength" of the move doesn't compare to what we are witnessing right now with this move. One comparable timeframe Is June 2007-July 2007. The move in the RSI in credit spreads is what STARTED the great financial crisis. After this huge move happened spreads rose for the next 73 weeks or a little under a year and a half making higher highs and higher lows. Another comparable timeframe is May 2002-July 2002; Spreads had already been making higher highs and higher lows; were already above 4; and then this move is what ENDED the dot.com bubble.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EYLong
by Vixtine
Spike in Credit Spreads continues...As I wrote on March 4th after February monthly closing...the RSI on credit spreads made a higher high with Feb closing which indicates a change from a down trend in credit spreads to an uptrend; which is not good for risk assets. Now that March has closed; you will see yet another spike in the RSI to close at another higher high. This spike in RSI is actually rather large even though credit spreads are still less than 4. I've seen a lot of people on X laughing at people who have mentioned that credit spreads are "spiking" because when you look at the graph of credit spreads they still below 4 and do not appear to be spiking. Here's the thing...when spreads do spike you will be late to the party! So what happens when spreads get to 4? Do they do what they did in 2005 or 2014? The answer to this question will dictate how the market will react in the short term. Eventually however spreads will blow up...it's not an if but a when once RSI changes over to an uptrend.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EYLong
by Vixtine
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY March/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%. Services inflation slowed to a 33-month low (3.4% vs. 3.7% in February), while energy costs declined (-0.7% vs. 0.2%). However, inflation remained steady for both non-energy industrial goods (0.6%) and processed food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%), and unprocessed food prices surged (4.1% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 2.4%, slightly below market forecasts of 2.5% and marking its lowest level since January 2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% advance in February.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Core PCE Inflation Rises More than ExpectedECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC (February/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month in February, maintaining the same pace as the previous two months. The core PCE index increased by 0.4%, the most since January 2024, surpassing the forecast of 0.3% and up from 0.3% in January. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation remained steady at 2.5%, while core PCE inflation edged up to 2.8%, above the expected 2.7%.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx