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$EUINTR - Europe Interest Rates (July/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR July/2025 source: European Central Bank - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, effectively marking the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, while the deposit facility rate holds at 2.0%. Policymakers struck a wait-and-see stance, as they evaluate the impact of lingering trade uncertainty and the potential fallout from proposed US tariffs on economic growth and inflation. Inflation hit the ECB’s 2% target in June, adding to the case for a pause in policy adjustments. Speaking at the ECB press conference, President Lagarde said the central bank is “in a good place” but acknowledged the difficulty in assessing how tariffs will affect price outlooks, given the mix of both inflationary and disinflationary pressures. On the recent euro appreciation, Lagarde reiterated that the ECB does not target exchange rates directly but considers them when forecasting inflation.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Inflation vs. Growth : Is the Fed Behind or Ahead of the Curve?CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! CME_MINI:MES1! CBOT:ZN1! Fed Policy recap: There is an interesting and unusual theme to keep an eye on this week. The Fed is in a ‘blackout period’ until the FOMC meeting- this is a customary quiet period ahead of an FOMC policy meeting. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to give a public talk on Tuesday. Although his address will be focused on the capital framework of the large banks, this appearance will be closely watched for any subtle signals on the FOMC policy stance. Especially given that last week, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller made a speech, “The Case for Cutting Now” with a purpose as he stated to explain why the FOMC should reduce rate by 25 bps at the July 30th, 2025 meeting. His stated reasons were: 1. Tariffs create one-off price level increases with transitory inflation effects, not sustained inflation momentum. 2. He argued that much of economic data points towards interest rates should be lowered to FOMC’s participants' median neutral rate, i.e, 3%. 3. His third stated reason notes that while the state of the labor market looks resilient on the surface, accounting for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth has peaked, with more data suggesting increased downside risks. His speech further explains: • Growth has decelerated sharply: Real GDP rose only ~1% annualized in 1H25, a significant slowdown from 2.8% in 2H24, and well below long-run potential. • Consumer spending is weakening, with real PCE growth falling to ~1%, and June retail sales showing soft underlying momentum. • Broader labor market indicators, including the Beige Book and JOLTS data, show declining labor demand and hiring caution, suggesting increasing downside risks to employment. • Inflation is slightly above target (PCE ~2.5%) but driven primarily by temporary, one-off tariff effects. Core inflation ex-tariffs is likely near 2%, and expectations remain anchored. • Current fed funds range (4.25%–4.50%) is well above neutral (3%), implying excessive restraint. • With inflation risks subdued and macro conditions deteriorating, a preemptive rate cut now provides optionality and avoids falling behind the curve if the slowdown deepens. Further cuts may be warranted if trends persist. • The tax bill contains pro-growth provisions, but its economic impact is expected to be minimal in 2025. Source: Federal Reserve Speech, The Case for Cutting Now Governor Waller Inflation Analysis: Let’s compare this with what we have previously mentioned regarding inflation. CPI index stood at 257.971 points in January 2020. Projecting this at a 2% Fed target, June 2025 inflation should be around 287.655 points. However, June 2025 inflation is currently at 322.56 index points, 12.2% higher above 2% the inflation trend. Effectively, this means annualized inflation since January 2020 is roughly 4.15%. The Fed is in a real dilemma whether cutting rates given the inflation trend in the last 5 years and risks to inflation outlook justify cutting rates. Key Questions to ask Markets are forward looking. Investors and participants want to know: • How will the rates impact the cost of debt service? Currently the third largest government expenditure, over $1.03 trillion. • Will the tariff rate offset the tax revenue losses by extending tax cuts? • Is the fiscal path sustainable? • What happens to the long end of the yield-curve? • Will the Fed monetize the debt issuance imbalance? • Is this simply Governor Waller positioning himself for the next appointment of Fed Chair when Fed Chair Powell’s term expires in May 2026? It seems there is a huge conflict between longer term implications vs quick short term fixes that align with US administration objectives. The Week ahead: It is a relatively light economic calendar in the US. Flash PMI readings and housing data on the docket. The primary focus as it has been for most weeks since President Trump took office, will be on the developments in trade policy and any further comments on Fed and Chair Powell. The threat of renewed tariffs starting August 1st, is also key to monitor and whether these protectionist measures will force US’s trading partners to make further concessions to negotiate trade deals. The earnings season is off to a good start with major US banks reporting higher EPS and revenue than expectations. This week investors will be looking at Q2 earnings reports from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft from the Mag 7 and Tesla.
ECONOMICS:USCPI
by EdgeClear
$GBIRYY - U.K Inflation Rises to a 2024 High (June/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY June/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK rose to 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2024, up from 3.4% in May and above expectations that it would remain unchanged. The main upward pressure came from transport prices, mostly motor fuel costs, airfares, rail fares and maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment. On the other hand, services inflation remained steady at 4.7%. Meanwhile, core inflation also accelerated, with the annual rate reaching 3.7%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$USIRYY -U.S Inflation Rate Seen Rising for 2nd Month (June/2025ECONOMICS:USIRYY June/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated for the second consecutive month to 2.7% in June, the highest level since February, up from 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%, marking the largest increase in five months. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to edge up to 3% from 2.8%. Monthly core CPI is also anticipated to climb 0.3%, up from 0.1% in May, marking its sharpest increase in five months.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$CNGDPYY -China GDP Growth Slows Less Than Expected (Q2/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q2/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s economy expanded 5.2% yoy in Q2 2025, easing from 5.4% in the prior two quarters and marking the softest pace since Q3 2024. Still, the latest reading narrowly beat estimates of 5.1%, supported in part by Beijing’s policy measures amid a fragile trade truce. Growth momentum in H2 is projected to weaken further, due to headwinds from trade tensions, deflation risks, and a prolonged property slump.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
Weekly Macro Brief: Chinese Economic Data, US Inflation, Tariff CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME:BTC1! CME_MINI:RTY1! COMEX:SI1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! NYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:M6E1! CBOT:ZN1! CME_MINI:MES1! Highlights this week include Chinese economic data points, UK CPI, US CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales. Inflation data is key, as it comes ahead of the Fed's meeting on July 30th, 2025. Market participants, including institutional investors and futures brokers like EdgeClear, will be scrutinizing these data points closely to monitor global growth and underlying inflation pressures. Fed speakers are scheduled throughout the week. With increasing calls for Fed Chair Powell voluntary resignation and impeachment, the US administration desiring lower rates, the Fed’s independence and credibility to carry out its dual mandate is at risk. It will be interesting to monitor who folds first. Last week’s FOMC minutes revealed a divided Fed on the interest rate outlook, affirming its June dot plot. On the fiscal policy front, we are already witnessing a shift in global trade policies, with many nations making concessions to negotiate trade deals with the world’s largest economy. In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies have to start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation. In summary, the complex interplay between tariffs, inflation, and consumer behavior presents critical considerations for traders. EdgeClear, as a dedicated futures broker, remains focused on equipping clients with the insights needed to help navigate this evolving macroeconomic environment. Overnight Data Recap: • Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jun) 826.0B (Prev. 743.6B) • Chinese Trade Balance USD* (Jun) 114.77B vs. Exp. 109.0B (Prev. 103.22B) • Chinese Imports YY* (Jun) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -3.4%) • Chinese Exports YY* (Jun) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.8%) Key Economic Releases: • MON: EU 90-Day Retaliatory Pause Ends • TUE: OPEC MOMR, Chinese House Prices (Jun), Retail Sales (Jun), GDP (Q2), EZ Industrial Production (May), German ZEW (Jun), US CPI (Jun), NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), Canadian CPI (Jun) • WED: UK CPI (Jun), EZ Trade (May), US PPI (Jun), Industrial Production (Jun) • THU: Japanese Trade Balance (Jun), EZ Final HICP (Jun), US Export/Import Prices (Jun), Weekly Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Jul), Retail Sales (Jun) • FRI: Japanese CPI (Jun), German Producer Prices (Jun), US Building Permits/Housing Starts (Jun), Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Jul) China GDP / Retail Sales/ Housing (TUE): • Q2 GDP is expected to slow to 5.1% Y/Y (vs 5.4% in Q1) and 0.9% Q/Q. • Retail sales have been resilient, but industrial production and investment show signs of weakness; deflation and labor market concerns persist. • Property prices continue to decline, fueling stimulus speculation; policymakers remain cautious, with only modest easing expected (LPR and RRR cuts in Q4). US CPI (TUE) • June CPI expected at +0.3% M/M headline and core, suggesting a modest rebound from May’s subdued figures. • Inflation impact from tariffs seen as temporary; Fed officials maintain a cautious stance with possible rate cuts only if price pressures stay benign. • Markets are pricing near-zero odds for a July rate cut, but still expect two 25bps cuts by year-end in line with Fed guidance. US Retail Sales (THU): • Headline June retail sales expected flat M/M; ex-autos expected to rise +0.3%, showing signs of consumer stabilization. • BofA data shows mild spending rebound, though discretionary service spending continues to weaken, especially among lower-income households. • Spending strength remains concentrated in higher-income cohorts; weakness in wage growth limits broader consumption momentum. US Trade Tensions – Tariffs & Negotiations: • Trump announced 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican goods effective August 1st, separate from sector-specific tariffs. • Trump stated the EU is engaging in talks and South Korea is also pursuing a trade deal. Mexico Response: • President Sheinbaum expects a deal before August 1st but reaffirmed Mexican sovereignty is non-negotiable. • Mexico’s Economy Ministry is negotiating to protect domestic firms and workers, aiming for an alternative resolution. EU Response: • European Commission President von der Leyen warned that 30% tariffs would disrupt key transatlantic supply chains. • The EU will extend suspension of countermeasures until early August but is prepared to respond proportionally if needed. • The EU prefers a negotiated solution and dropped plans for a digital tax, seen as a concession to US tech interests. • Separately, the EU is drafting a broad corporate tax on firms with turnover above EUR 50 million to support its budget.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by EdgeClear
$CNIRYY -China's Inflation Data (June/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY June/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s consumer prices rose by 0.1% yoy in June 2025, reversing a 0.1% drop in the previous three months and surpassing market forecasts of a flat reading. It marked the first annual increase in consumer inflation since January, driven by e-commerce shopping events, increased subsidies for consumer goods from Beijing, and easing trade risks with the U.S. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.7% yoy, marking the highest reading in 14 months and following a 0.6% gain in May. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1%, after May's 0.2% drop, pointing to the fourth monthly decline this year.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
FED: less than 5% probability of a rate cut on July 301) The US labor market remains resilient according to the latest NFP report, which is good news for the macro-economic situation The US labor market demonstrated its resilience last week, making a rate cut by the FED on Wednesday July 30 unlikely: the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% of the labor force, after several months of stability around 4.2%. This drop in unemployment suggests that, despite two years of monetary tightening and current macro-economic uncertainties, the US economy continues to show resilience in its ability to create jobs. This is good news for economic growth, but it delays the FED's next rate cut. By clicking on the link below, you can reread our S&P 500 analysis proposed following the latest NFP report update last Thursday. 2) The probability of a rate cut on July 30 reduced to almost zero, barring any huge surprises between now and then on inflation, employment or trade diplomacy Up until now, most investors were expecting an earlier decision, as early as July 30, at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. But cautious communication from Fed officials tempered these expectations. Jerome Powell and several governors reiterated that they would wait for “sustainable” evidence of a return of inflation to the 2% target before committing themselves. The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.1% introduces a nuance: it confirms that the economy is not contracting sharply, allowing the Fed to wait a few more weeks without taking the risk of slowing growth more than necessary. At the same time, the latest consumer confidence indicators and manufacturing activity data suggest a gentle slowdown, closer to a controlled landing than a halt. Note that this week's Wednesday July 9 deadline for trade agreements will reveal more about the future impact of tariffs on inflation, and this will further alter the FED's monetary policy expectations. When these lines are written, the probability of a FED pivot on July 30 is less than 5%. 3) Here are the fundamental dates that will be decisive between now and the FED's monetary choice on Wednesday July 30 Wednesday July 9: the current deadline for trade diplomacy between the USA and its main trading partners. The final amount of tariffs will be decisive for US inflation expectations. Tuesday July 15: US CPI inflation , the last major US inflation figure to be updated before the FED's monetary policy decision on July 30. Initial and ongoing weekly US jobless claims are published on the Thursday of each week and will have an impact on the likelihood of the FED's action on July 30, but only marginally. Barring exceptional events, it is therefore unlikely that the FED will resume cutting the federal funds rate on July 30. The next PCE and NFP are due after the FED (July 31 and August 1) and will therefore have an impact on the FED's monetary policy decision on September 17. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
$EUIRYY - Europe CPI (June/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY 2% June/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Eurozone consumer price inflation rose slightly to 2.0% year-on-year in June 2025, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with market expectations, according to a preliminary estimate. The figure aligns with the European Central Bank’s official target. Among major economies, inflation in Germany unexpectedly declined, while France and Spain saw modest increases and Italy’s rate held steady.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Jobs vs politics: GBPUSD caught in crossfire Two major stories are developing on either side of the Atlantic. ADP reported a 33 k fall in June private payrolls (consensus +95 k). It is the third straight miss and sets the tone for Thursday’s early Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release, brought forward because of the 4 July holiday. In the UK, speculation is growing around the position of Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in Parliament. Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to confirm whether she would remain in the role, sparking questions over the government’s fiscal direction. The political uncertainty helped accelerate the sell-off in GBPUSD, which has fallen sharply from recent highs near 1.38. The latest candles show a long lower wick around 1.3600, indicating that buyers are attempting to defend the area. If this support fails to hold, the next downside target lies near 1.3485–1.3500, which acted as a base for the late-June rally.
ECONOMICS:GBGD
by BlackBull_Markets
What is Inflation Climate and Weather? Copper is NextThe key driver of most markets — and a major influence on their trends — is inflation. Once we understand the difference between short-term inflation weather and long-term inflation climate, we can better recognize where risk meets opportunity. On this half yearly chart. We can see as the close on 30th June, copper settled firmly, closed above its $4.44 resistance that has been tested for years. This study indicates that copper could be at the beginning of an uptrend. I will be looking out for buying-on-dips opportunities whenever they arise. Mirco Copper Futures Ticker: MHG Minimum fluctuation: 0.0005 per pound = $1.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
NFP report for Thursday July 3, the crucial figure of the weekBeware this week for stock market fundamentals, as it's a special week. Friday, July 4 is an Independence Day holiday in the United States. On July 4, 1776, the Continental Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence, a text drafted principally by Thomas Jefferson, which proclaimed that the 13 American colonies had officially separated from the United Kingdom. For this first week of July on the stock market, this has a direct impact on the US fundamentals update. As you may know, it's the first Friday of every month that the US NFP report is updated, which is the monthly report on the US labor market. Consequently, this particular week sees the publication of the NFP report brought forward from Friday July 4 to Thursday July 3. It is therefore the stock market session on Thursday July 3 that will be the fundamental highlight of the week, with the NFP report likely to have a strong influence on the FED's monetary policy decision on Wednesday July 30. 1) The probability of the FED cutting its rate on Wednesday July 30 is just 21% At this stage, and following last Friday's US PCE inflation update, the probability of the FED resuming the cut in the federal funds rate is just over 20%. Despite the strong pressure exerted by Donald Trump on Jerome Powell's FED, the FOMC (the FED's monetary policy committee) is in no hurry to cut rates in the face of the risk of a rebound in inflation caused by tariffs. Last week, we offered you a fundamental analysis of the FED, which you can reread by clicking on the image below. 2) The US labor market seems to be starting to deteriorate according to the continuing weekly jobless claims In reality, there is only one fundamental factor that could allow the FED rate to be cut at the monetary meeting on Wednesday July 30: a deterioration in the labor market with the NFP report figures on Thursday July 3. It's true that the latest updates on ongoing weekly US jobless claims show an increasingly negative dynamic which could end up feeding the US unemployment rate higher. 3) Beware, the slightest upward tick in the US unemployment rate when the NFP report is updated on Thursday July 3 could accelerate the FED's timetable for resuming the US federal funds rate Keep in mind that the FED is pursuing two major objectives: inflation under control at around 2% and low unemployment. The FED's alert threshold is currently 4.4% of the labor force, and the consensus for the NFP report update of Thursday July 3 is 4.3% of the labor force. CAUTION therefore: if the US unemployment rate makes 1 or 2 upward ticks this Thursday, the probability of a FED rate cut on Wednesday July 30 will rise sharply. This is the fundamental highlight of the week. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
FRED:UNRATE
by Swissquote
FED, rate cut possible on July 30? With the US Federal Reserve (FED) meeting on July 30 fast approaching, the markets are scrutinizing the slightest signals likely to indicate an inflexion in monetary policy. While a rate cut seems unlikely in the short term, it cannot be ruled out altogether. Despite Chairman Jerome Powell's firm stance, some influential members of the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) are actively pushing for monetary easing this summer. 1) Jerome Powell is not the only decision-maker on the FOMC, and there is pressure for a rate cut in July Jerome Powell adopts a very cautious stance, making any monetary easing conditional on clear convergence towards the 2% inflation target. His main concern is the potentially inflationary impact of the tariffs currently under negotiation. However, Powell does not have absolute power. The FOMC has 12 voting members, including 7 permanent governors, the president of the New York Fed and 4 rotating regional bank presidents. Although each vote is worth as much, the Chairman largely shapes the agenda and guides the discussions. Some members, such as Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, appointed under the Trump presidency, are pushing for a cut as early as July. Donald Trump's implicit support for this option adds political pressure, even if his direct influence is limited. Below is a table showing the current balance of power between the voting members of the FOMC. 2) There will be a rate cut on July 30 if and only if the unemployment rate becomes worrying On the fundamentals side, inflation measured by the PCE index, the FED's benchmark, remains slightly above target, but several key components are showing signs of normalization. Oil, which accounts for around 11% of the basket, is not showing any alarming technical signals with the geopolitical calm in the Middle East. The real estate sector and healthcare spending, also heavily weighted, are showing positive indications in favor of further disinflation. Moreover, tariffs are only marginally affecting services, which account for 67% of the PCE. Despite this, Powell remains concerned about the risk of exogenous inflationary resurgence, especially if the universal 10% tariff were to apply to all US trading partners, with an expected impact on core PCE of +0.2% to +0.3%. Markets are anticipating a first decline in September, but a July changeover cannot be ruled out if employment data, notably the NFP report of July 3, show a marked weakening of the labor market. 3) The S&P 500 index will need the FED's pivot to go higher, as it has returned to its all-time high On the financial markets, a FED pivot would be a decisive bullish catalyst, especially for US equities, Bitcoin and other high-beta assets. Technical analysis of the S&P 500 shows a favourable technical configuration since the beginning of April, with a V-shaped recovery. But with the market now in contact with its all-time high, very positive fundamentals will be needed to consider going higher. In short, the decision on July 30 will depend on a subtle trade-off between political pressures, inflation dynamics and the health of the job market. A status quo remains the central scenario, but a reversal is conceivable in the event of a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic data, good inflation figures or positive surprises on trade diplomacy. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
FRED:FEDFUNDSEducation
by Swissquote
June 27 PCE inflation, stagflation is avoidable.The release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, due this Friday June 27, is the major macroeconomic event of the week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation indicator, the PCE could play a decisive role in determining the direction of US monetary policy in the second half of 2025. 1) PCE inflation is the Fed's favorite inflation index The economic context is particularly delicate. At its last meeting, the Fed maintained its key rate between 4.25% and 4.5%, while revising its macroeconomic projections. It now anticipates weaker growth, higher inflation and slightly higher unemployment by the end of 2025. This cautious stance reflects the many uncertainties, notably geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and tensions over raw materials, particularly oil. These factors could revive fears of a stagflation scenario, i.e. a combination of weak growth and persistent inflation. Against this backdrop, the PCE figure for May is of strategic importance. The Fed remains attentive to what this indicator shows: confirmation of a slowdown in price rises would reinforce the hypothesis of a first rate cut as early as September. Conversely, an unexpected rebound, driven in particular by energy prices or the new tariffs introduced by the Trump administration, could postpone this deadline and intensify tensions on financial markets. 2) The stagflation scenario is still avoidable However, the immediate outlook for PCE seems relatively contained. According to leading indicators of underlying inflation, the components most sensitive to fluctuations in world prices, such as services and real estate, are not showing any signs of overheating. On the other hand, the recent rise in oil prices, stimulated by tensions in the Middle East, could lead to a temporary increase in nominal inflation. Its overall impact is estimated at around 10%, which remains moderate at this stage. Beyond this release, markets are weighing up the chances of the Fed taking action ahead of its key meeting on Wednesday September 17. Should geopolitical uncertainty diminish and inflation figures continue to normalize, the conditions for monetary easing would be met. At present, ten FOMC members are leaning towards two rate cuts by the end of the year, while seven prefer to maintain the status quo. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was cautious, insisting on the need to be guided by economic data. All in all, the June 27 ECP will act as an eye-opener. It will shed light on the current state of inflationary dynamics in the United States, and strongly influence investor expectations. If it reinforces the idea that inflation is converging towards the 2% target on a sustainable basis, markets could regain confidence in a more accommodating monetary policy. In any case, the Fed will have to navigate skilfully between ambiguous economic signals, persistent exogenous risks and growing political pressure. Friday's PCE figure represents much more than a simple monthly indicator: it is a compass for US monetary strategy. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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ECONOMICS:USPCEPIAC
by Swissquote
FED Balance Sheet Projection Using Technical AnalysisThis chart refers to the total assets owned by the Federal Reserve System. Essentially, if this chart is contracting, there is less liquidity in the economy/markets, if it's expanding, there is more liquidity. If this chart enters its expansion phase, we can expect risk assets to pump, reaching new all time highs and the dawn of a new super cycle. This doesn't happen often. When we look at previous patterns, it looks like this chart has lined up for its next big move up. Firstly, if we look at the similarities between the previous cycle and the present moment, we have a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, a slight dip below the weekly 200 EMA, and a stronger oversold reading on the RSI. It looks like WALCL is ready for another move higher, this would signal another round of QE by the FED. For targets, we looking looking at the same target as the previous cycle, the 4.618% Fibonacci extension level, coupled with a confluence of the 1.618% projection, this would result in an increase of 288% in the FED's Balance Sheet, a massive move up and would result in an absurd amount of money printing and inflation. If this projection plays out, the cryptocurrency, housing and stock market will absolutely skyrocket. Now is the time to consider loading up on some risk assets and protect yourself from the inflation that is to come, it's likely to be hyper inflationary. The definition of hyper inflation is: "Hyperinflation is a severe economic condition characterized by an extraordinarily rapid increase in prices, typically defined as an inflation rate exceeding 50 percent per month." Let me know what you think. Trade safe, SunnyHillCapital
FRED:WALCL
by SunnyHillCapital
$JPIRYY -Japan CPI (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY May/2025 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - Japan's annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in May 2025 from 3.6% in the previous two months, marking the lowest level since November. Price growth eased for clothing (2.6% vs 2.7% in April), household items (3.6% vs 4.1%), and healthcare (2.0% vs 2.2%), while education costs fell further (-5.6%). In contrast, inflation held steady for transport (2.7%) and miscellaneous items (1.3%), but accelerated for housing (1.1% vs 1.0%), recreation (3.0% vs 2.7%), and communications (1.9% vs 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of electricity (11.3% vs 13.5%) and gas (5.4% vs 4.4%) remained elevated. On the food side, prices increased by 6.5%, staying at the slowest pace in four months, though rice prices soared over 100%, underscoring the limited impact of government efforts to rein in staple food costs. Meanwhile, the core inflation accelerated to 3.7% from 3.5% in April, reaching its highest level in over two years, ahead of the summer election. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% gain in April.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx