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FED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted Remains TightFED FUNDS Rate Inflation Adjusted for core inflation remains in the tightening area. As inflation rises over the next few months, thanks to Trump's liberating all Americans with higher taxes and less discretionary income to spend. I expect this chart to drop as inflation rises and Fed holds rates steady. Alternatively, FED lowers rates bc we will be in a recession, and it is trying to make private money creation cheaper to pump the economy. Which of the two will occur first, I could not tell you. However, it is important to keep a close eye on this chart in the months ahead. Click like, follow, subscribe.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by RealMacro
3
one of the most underrated charts : M2(money supply)When it comes to forex and macro trading, it's easy to get lost in charts, indicators, and economic calendars. But one of the most overlooked—and incredibly powerful—macro indicators is the M2 Money Supply. In this post, we’ll break down what M2 really is, why it matters, and how traders like you can use it to get an edge. 💰 What Is M2 Money Supply? M2 represents the total amount of money in circulation in an economy, including: M1 (physical cash + checking deposits) Savings deposits Money market securities Time deposits (under $100,000) In simple terms: M2 tracks how much money is sloshing around in the system. 🧠 Why Traders Should Care About M2 When M2 goes up significantly, it often signals that a central bank is easing monetary policy—i.e., printing more money, keeping interest rates low, or using QE (quantitative easing). Conversely, when M2 contracts or slows, it suggests tightening, and could signal reduced liquidity, higher rates, or a slower economy. M2 = Macro Liquidity Meter And liquidity drives markets—especially currencies. ⚙️ How to Use M2 in Your Trading Strategy Here are 3 ways you can incorporate M2 into your macro trading toolkit: 1. Gauge Inflation & Currency Value When a country expands its money supply rapidly (like the U.S. did during COVID), the purchasing power of its currency often declines, especially against currencies with tighter monetary policy. ✅ Watch for divergences: If M2 is growing fast in one country and flat in another, that’s a potential FX opportunity. 📉 Example: USD weakened sharply post-COVID when M2 surged. 2. Confirm Trends in Interest Rates M2 often leads or confirms central bank policy. Shrinking M2 → Tighter conditions → Rising rates → Currency bullish Expanding M2 → Easier policy → Lower rates → Currency bearish Use it alongside yield curve analysis and central bank projections. 3. Identify Risk-On/Risk-Off Regimes A rising M2 usually supports risk assets like equities and EM currencies. Falling M2 can trigger liquidity squeezes, flight to safety, and stronger demand for USD or JPY. Use M2 as a macro filter for your risk appetite. Watch for turning points in M2 to anticipate market regime shifts. 🔎 How to Track M2 on @TradingView Open a new chart and search for: 🔍 FRED:M2SL – U.S. M2 Money Stock (seasonally adjusted) You can also compare this against: DXY (US Dollar Index) USDJPY, EURUSD, or other major FX pairs U.S. 10-Year Yields (US10Y) or Fed Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) Add M2 as an overlay or sub-chart for macro context. Use the "Compare" tool to visualize divergences with currency pairs. 📌 Final Thoughts M2 might not give you minute-by-minute trade signals like an RSI or MACD, but it offers something far more powerful: macro context. When used with other indicators, it can help traders: Anticipate currency trends Understand shifts in monetary policy Position for regime changes in risk appetite Remember: the smartest traders aren’t just charting price—they’re charting liquidity. And M2 is the ultimate liquidity map. put together by : @currencynerd
FRED:M2SLEducation
by currencynerd
3
Will Jerome Powell give in on Wednesday May 7 by cutting rates?Introduction: As the US Federal Reserve (FED) approaches a new monetary policy decision, the central question is: Will Jerome Powell bow to political pressure and initiate a rate cut on May 7? To answer this question, it is essential to look back at the institutional framework of the FED and the historical precedents that shed light on the current stakes. Created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, the FED is founded on a fundamental principle: its independence from the executive branch. This principle ensures that its monetary decisions, particularly with regard to interest rates, are not dictated by political considerations, but by macro-economic factors. 1) The independence of the FED is enshrined in law The independence of the FED is enshrined in law. Its Chairman, appointed for a four-year term, can only be removed by the President of the United States for "just cause", in other words, gross misconduct, a provision designed to prevent any attempt at direct political interference. This institutional bulwark was put to the test in the 1970s, when a landmark episode pitted Richard Nixon against Arthur Burns, then Chairman of the FED. In a bid to stimulate the economy before the 1972 presidential election, Nixon put intense pressure on Burns to lower interest rates, despite inflationary signals. Burns eventually relented. While this accommodating monetary policy initially bore electoral fruit, it also triggered a long period of inflation and a severe economic crisis. Today, this episode remains a historic lesson in the consequences of an FED subject to political will. 2) On the macroeconomic front, Powell should wait beyond May 7 In 2025, the FED finds itself under pressure again, this time from Donald Trump, but current economic conditions do not justify hasty action. Although inflation is slowing, with the PCE index close to the 2% target in nominal terms, several factors argue in favor of the status quo. Firstly, US household inflation expectations, as measured by the University of Michigan index, remain high. Secondly, U.S. companies face uncertainty about how to deal with the tariffs: should they pass on costs to consumers or cut their margins? Finally, despite existing economic room for manoeuvre, macroeconomic signals are not clear enough to justify an immediate rate cut. Conclusion: History shows that giving in to political pressure can be costly for the US economy. Jerome Powell seems aware of this responsibility and should adopt a measured wait-and-see strategy. May 7 will probably not be the day of the long-awaited monetary turnaround, but more likely the monetary policy decisions of June or July if disinflation is confirmed and a trade agreement is reached between the USA, China and the EU. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Swissquote
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY April/2025 source: EUROSTAT - Consumer price inflation in the Euro Area remained steady at 2.2% in April 2025, slightly exceeding market expectations of 2.1% and hovering just above the European Central Bank’s 2.0% target midpoint, according to a preliminary estimate. A sharper drop in energy prices (-3.5% vs. -1.0% in March) was offset by faster inflation in services (3.9% vs. 3.5%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (3.0% vs. 2.9%). Prices for non-energy industrial goods rose by 0.6%, unchanged from March. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.7%, up from March’s three-year low of 2.4% and above the forecast of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.6% in April, matching March’s rise.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR May/2025 source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations. The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%. The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Inflation Slows as Expected (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Inflation Slows as Expected (March/2025) ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC March/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The personal consumption expenditure price index in the US was unchanged in March from February 2025, the least in ten months, and following a 0.4% rise in each of the previous two months, in line with expectations. Prices for goods fell 0.5%, after a 0.2% increase in February and prices for services went up 0.2%, easing from a 0.5% rise. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also unchanged, compared with forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Separately, food prices rose 0.5% (vs a flat reading) while prices for energy goods and services dropped 2.7% (vs 0.1%). Finally, the annual PCE rate decreased to 2.3%, the lowest in five months, and the annual core PCE inflation also eased to 2.6%.
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
$USGDPQQ -U.S Economy Unexpectedly Contracts in Q1/2025ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ Q1/2025 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -U.S economy shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, the first contraction since Q1 2022, versus 2.4% growth in Q4 and expectations of 0.3% expansion, as rising trade tensions weighed on the economy. Net exports cut nearly 5 percentage points from GDP as imports jumped over 40%. Consumer spending rose just 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023, while federal government outlays fell 5.1%, the most since Q1 2022.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
M2 Money Supply W/ Trix As M2 money supply breaks out here is an interesting look back. Since 1959 the Trix indicator has never crossed below the zero line until late 22 early 23 signaling the biggest contraction in money supply since the mid 90s after recording the largest expansion recorded post plandemic. Now with it back above the zero line and supply ticking above previous highs, will we see normal rate of expansion, or will these recent readings become the new norm? Regardless, the fiat printers will not stop as the chart clearly shows up and to the right. This is why Bitcoin exist and why governments cannot be trusted no matter who is charge, the printer is always warmed up and ready to go brrrr.
ECONOMICS:USM2
by AlainasGrace
$EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025) ECONOMICS:EUINTR April/2025 source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Policymakers noted that the disinflation process is progressing well and dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance, while cautioning that the growth outlook has worsened amid escalating trade tensions.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY - U.K CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.6% March/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 2.6% in March 2025 from 2.8% in February and below market and the BoE's forecasts of 2.7%. The largest downward contributions came from recreation and culture (2.4% vs 3.4%), mainly games, toys and hobbies (-4.2%) and data processing equipment (-5.1%). Transport also contributed to the slowdown (1.2% vs 1.8%), largely due to a 5.3% fall in motor fuel prices. In addition, prices rose less for restaurants and hotels (3%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 3.4%), mostly accommodation services (-0.6%); housing and utilities (1.8% vs 1.9%); and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3% vs 3.3%). In contrast, the most significant upward contribution came from clothing and footwear (1.1% vs -0.6%), with prices usually rising in March as spring fashions continue to enter the shops. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.3%, slightly below both the previous month’s increase and expectations of 0.4%. Annual core inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$CNGDPYY -China's GDP (Q1/2025)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY 5.4% Q1/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in Q4 and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. It remained the strongest annual growth rate in 1-1/2 years amid Beijing's ongoing stimulus. The latest GDP readings were also buoyed by robust March activity: industrial output rose at its fastest pace since June 2021, retail sales posted the biggest gain in over a year, and the surveyed jobless rate eased from a two-year high. Fixed asset investment also slightly surpassed expectations in the first quarter. On the trade front, exports recorded their strongest growth since October as firms accelerated shipments ahead of looming tariffs, while a drop in imports narrowed. The statistics bureau said the Chinese economy was “off to a good and steady start” and highlighted the growing role of innovation. However, intensifying trade tensions with the U.S. have quickly darkened the outlook, increasing pressure on Beijing to roll out additional support measures.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
Gold Skyrockets Like It's 2011: Are We There Yet?Gold has been on a powerful run since breaking above the 2100 resistance level in March 2024. After just one year of relentless gains and a return of over 60%, it has become one of the top-performing assets. But the big question now is: how far can this rally go? To the moon? It's difficult to predict how far prices can climb during these kinds of parabolic moves. In 2011, the final green monthly bar alone rose 17% from open to high. These FOMO-fueled surges often lead to euphoric tops followed by painful bear markets. So, are we there yet? Since Richard Nixon ended the dollar's gold backing and introduced the modern fiat system, gold's status as a safe haven has become even more prominent. Whenever there are heightened risks, whether geopolitical, fiscal, or related to the fiat money system, investors tend to flock to gold. The 2011 rally was a clear example of this. After the 2008 financial crisis and the quantitative easing that followed, gold became the go-to asset for both preserving value and speculative opportunity. A similar pattern has unfolded following the COVID-19 shock. The Federal Reserve returned to aggressive quantitative easing, while both the Trump and Biden administrations increased fiscal spending, including direct payments to households. This surge in money supply and concerns about fiat stability, along with rising government debt, helped trigger another major gold rally. With the added risk of a trade war, the rally has accelerated further, pushing gold beyond 3300 and creating a situation that closely mirrors 2011. Looking at the money supply-to-gold ratio and the US federal debt-to-gold ratio, gold now appears to be testing trendline levels. Its recent surge has made metrics like M2 and federal debt seem relatively smaller, which may be a sign that the rally is approaching exhaustion. Still, history shows that final euphoric moves can stretch even higher before a true top is formed. Rather than trying to predict the peak, it's often better to wait for signs of price stabilization. Gold typically offers a second opportunity, often forming two peaks with the second lower than the first, before entering a bear phase. In 1980, gold fell more than 60% within two years. After the 2011 top, it declined nearly 40%. Even if the retreat expected to be milder this time, gold could still offer a 20% or greater downside opportunity once the top is in. Smart money has already started to take profits gradually. Net managed money positions in the COT report have decreased by 40% since January, as we discussed in our earlier post:
FRED:M2SL
by ftdsystem