Get started

Economy

Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp. My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures. So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar). In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy. Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis... But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008. The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt). In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ECONOMICS:USGDPLong
by BradMatheny
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
Yield Curve Reversion Trade 2024The yield curve reversion is when the US10Y Treasury Yield becomes greater than the US2Y Treasury Yield and has a track record for signalling recession. I've been tracking the reversion for the past two years for any hint of sense of whether the US FED would cut FEDFUNDS rates or if bond traders would drive yields/prices towards reversion. This time, the fed's narrative is driving the reaction here. To express this idea I've put on long CBOT_MINI:10Y1! and short CBOT_MINI:2YY1! via the futures market. I'll keep rolling the futures contracts until the yield curve starts to form a top, likely a spread value between 1.5-3.0.
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by pb0316
M2 supply seasonality - sell in may & go away until OctoberUsing this formula: (FRED:M2SL+ECONOMICS:EUM2+ECONOMICS:JPM2+ECONOMICS:CNM2+ECONOMICS:INM2+ECONOMICS:GBM2+ECONOMICS:CAM2)/100000000000000 This formula includes US, EU, GB, CAN, JP, In & CN M2 money supply. You can clearly see M2 money supply seasonality changes, rounding consolidation from June1st & going up starting from October. Every time - for the last 5 years very clearly. More global liquidity should drive the markets up.
FRED:M2SLLong
by strip
2
The 3-way of Economic Nightmares.I recently had a discussion on X, with regard to the Forecasting ability of High Yield Spreads. I was making the claim they do possess Leading Indicator qualities, while a gentleman took the other side of this debate. To illustrate my views, I've put together a chart of FedFunds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and said High Yield Spreads. This chart shows the last ~28yr of the above mentioned series, and how they "play" with one another. A) Shows the period leading into the "DotCom" Bubble. We see High Yield Spreads rise first - Leading the other two data series. In a Coincident fashion, FedFunds then rolls over, while Unemployment shoots higher. A successful "Forecast" by High Yield Spreads of the impending Downturn/Recession. A successful Leading Indicator. B) Shows the period leading into the "GFC". We once again see High Yield Spreads rise, this time SHARPLY, albeit with much less "lead time" than the previous example. As with example A), FedFunds and Unemployment then begin their inverse (to each other) dance. Once again showing High Yields Spread giving us that Advanced/Leading warning that things were getting fragile in the economy. A successful Leading Indicator - with admittedly less warning time. C) Shows us an outlier in this analysis, and for good reason. We see our 'significant' rise in High Yield Spreads, but what we do NOT see, is FedFunds and Unemployment doing their typical dance. Unemployment continues to head lower, while FedFunds begin to rise - the OPPOSITE of what they did in the prior 2 examples. D) Shows the period surrounding Covid. Once again High Yield Spreads shoot up in a dramatic fashion, warning bells should be going off in markets. Much like 2 of the previous 3 examples, FedFunds had also been in a "hiking" cycle. And right on cue, Unemployment skyrockets; completing our 3-way from Hell. We now find ourself in E). In the Oval we see our significant rise in High Yield Spreads, but this is accompanied by rising FedFunds, so we do not have our "danger" signal. Unemployment also remains low. We now however see High Yield Spreads beginning to turn up, with talks of Rate Cuts to FedFunds, as well as Unemployment rising. History may not repeat, but it does often rhyme. Are we starting to see warning signs flashing? Only time will tell, but as stated in previous posts... It's definitely not a time to be leveraged, or riding on large gains you haven't secured. TLDR; High Yield Spreads followed by Fallings FedFunds and Rising Unemployment = Market/Economic Stroke. As always, good luck, have fun, practice solid risk management. And thank you for your time.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
by mrjones2020
PIMCO Warning on Fed's First Cut in 4 Years next week The only event that matters next week is the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could result in its first rate cut in over four years PIMCO analysts, in a fresh note, outlined what could be in store for the U.S. dollar as the Fed embarks on its rate-cutting cycle. Historically, the dollar has shown a tendency to weaken, at least briefly, following the Fed’s initial rate cuts since the 1990s. The Fed now faces a tight decision on whether to opt for a larger-than-expected half-point cut or stick with a quarter-point reduction. An aggressive half-point move could raise concerns that the central bank is concerned about the economic outlook for the US, potentially prompting markets to price in further, more drastic rate cuts beyond the Fed's current trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets
Inflation, 2yr-bond yield, fund rate, unemployment, recessions The chart illustrates how five key economic indicators—Inflation, 2-Year Bond Yield, Federal Funds Rate, Unemployment Rate, and Recessions—compare across different time periods or economic conditions. 1. Inflation: This line or bar typically shows the rate at which prices for goods and services rise, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. Inflation is crucial for understanding cost-of-living adjustments and purchasing power. The chart might indicate periods of high or low inflation and how it correlates with other indicators. 2. 2-Year Bond Yield: This line represents the interest rate on 2-year government bonds, which reflects investor expectations for short-term economic conditions and interest rates. A higher yield often suggests expectations of rising interest rates or inflation, while a lower yield might indicate expectations of economic stagnation or lower rates. 3. Federal Funds Rate: This rate, set by the Federal Reserve, influences overall economic activity by affecting borrowing costs. Changes in the Federal Funds Rate can signal the Fed’s stance on monetary policy, with increases often aiming to combat inflation and decreases aiming to stimulate growth. 4. Unemployment Rate: This line measures the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. It provides insights into labor market conditions and economic health. High unemployment typically indicates economic distress, while low unemployment suggests a robust job market. 5. Recessions: Recessions are usually marked as shaded regions or periods on the chart. They indicate times when economic activity is declining, often accompanied by rising unemployment and decreasing inflation. The chart might show how other indicators like inflation and bond yields behave during recessions. Comparative Insights: Correlation: By comparing these indicators, the chart helps identify patterns, such as how rising inflation might correlate with higher bond yields and Federal Funds Rates. Economic Cycles: It shows how these indicators respond to economic cycles, including periods of expansion and recession. For example, during recessions, inflation might decrease, bond yields might fall, and unemployment might rise. Policy Impacts: The chart may also highlight the impact of monetary policy changes (reflected in the Federal Funds Rate) on inflation and unemployment.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by creengrack
One Chart to Rule them All ~ 10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spreads10Y/2Y and 10Y/3M Yield Spread One chart to rule them all. I have combined the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread (purple line) and the 10Y/3M Yield Spread (blue line) onto one chart. You can get updated readings on it at anytime on my TradingView page (link in bio above) I have measured the historic timeframe from un-inversion to recession for both datasets. Un-inversion occurs when the yield spread rises back above the 0 level. Given the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread has just un-inverted (moved above 0), I thought this a worthy exercise. The findings are interesting and useful. Main Findings / Trigger Levels The findings are based on the last 4 recessions (this as far back as the 10Y/3M Yield Spread chart will go); ▫️ Before all four recessions both yield spreads un-inverted (only one has to date); - At present only the 10Y/2Y yield spread has un-inverted (2nd Sept 2024), thus we can watch for the next warning signal which is an un-inversion of the 10Y/3M yield spread. Without both yield spreads un-inverting the probability of recession is reduced. ▫️ The 10Y/2Y typically un-inverts first and the 10Y/3M un-inverts second. -Historically the delay between the 10Y/2Y and the 10Y/3M un-inversion is between 3 to 10 weeks (23rd Sept – 11th Nov). This is the date window that we can watch for a 10Y/3M un-inversion (based on historic norms). -If we move outside this window beyond the 18th Nov with no 10Y/3M un-inversion, then we are outside the historic norms and something different is happening. Nonetheless watching for the un-inversion of the 10Y/3M after this date could be consequential. ▫️ On the chart I have used the last four 10Y/2Y yield spread un-inversion timeframes to recession and created a purple area to forecast these from the recent the inversion on the 2nd Sept 2024 forward (Labelled 1 - 4). This creates a nice visual on the chart. Based on these historic timeframes and subject to the follow up 10Y/3M un-inversion confirming in coming weeks, the potential recession dates are as follows (also marked on chart); 1.28th Oct 2024 (based on 2000 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe) 2.03rd Feb 2025 (based on 2020 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe) 3.12th May 2025 (based on 2007 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe) 4.25th August 2025 (based on 1990 10Y/2Y un-inversion to recession timeframe) ✅ Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView👍 ▫️ I will include a table in the comments which outlines all of the above metrics with dates. I will also share a chart with a zoomed in version of present day so that all the above trigger dates can be more closely monitored. Finally, it’s important to recognize that these findings and trigger levels are based on the last four recessions. There is no guarantee that a recession will occur or occur within the set trigger levels. What we have is a probabilistic guide based on historic patterns. This time could play out very differently or not play out at all. Regardless, all of the above findings help us gauge the probability of a recession with historic timeframes to watch. It leaves us better armed to make the necessary risk adjustments, particularly if the 10Y/3M yield curve un-inverts. Price is king, and at present, prices are pressing higher on most relevant market assets. From the above findings and the current positive market price action, it appears we have a little more time before being hauled into a longer-term correction or recession. I lean towards the later dates (2, 3, and 4 above) for this reason. Interestingly, many of my historic charts from months ago and last year suggested Jan/Feb 2025 (also option 2 above) as a very high-risk period. You can view these charts under the above specific chart on TradingView. This chart is your one-stop shop for checking recession trigger levels based on historic timeframes for both yield spreads. You can update this chart data anytime on my TradingView page with just one click. Be sure to follow me there to access a range of charts that will help you assess the direction of the economy and the market. Thanks again for coming along! Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView. Thanks PUKA
FRED:T10Y3M
by PukaCharts
14