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China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary. Manufacturing - 51.4 Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 51 Services - 52.5 Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024 ✅In line with expectations of 52.5 Composite - 52.8 Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 52.5
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by PukaCharts
China Caixin Services PMI (isolated chart)Sharing as a separate chart to Macro Monday 45 so we can update this separately. PLEASE REVIEW MACRO MONDAY 45 China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) ▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
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by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)Macro Monday 45 The China Caixin PMI (Services and Composite released Today Monday) Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday. We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today. 1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released 2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024 3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined) What is the Caixin PMI? ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers. Why Focus on China PMI's? China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also. Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. Reading both PMI’s: >50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. < 50 represents contraction A reading of 50 indicates no change. The Charts China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024 ✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week). ✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings. China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) ▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings. China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET ▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite. In Summary (subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary) China Caixin Manufacturing PM I ↗️ Expansionary The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023 China Caixin Services PMI ↗️ Expansionary As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month (April 2024 Figures Release Today) China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI ↗️ Expansionary The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity. (April 2024 Figures Release Today) All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻 PUKA
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by PukaCharts
Gov't Money printer Turned back on.Macro Commentary Cash will continue to be forced into assets either through investing or during the transaction/exchange of commerce. The printing won't end Until there's real change in fiscal policy and the new normal may be at the same adjusted rate during the 2008 collapse. People who do not trade their fiat for assets or income generating sources will get left behind to be stuck paying higher prices in the future. Normally this is the difference between the people who do invest and the people who don't. However we are getting to a scary point where this cycle may leave so many people so far behind that most investments and assets may become out of reach crushing the middle and lower class even further.. PS: Buy BTC
FRED:WM2NSLong
by AngryBuhda
Good Liquidity Proxy? Fed balance sheet + BOJ balance sheet adjusted to USD + PBOC balance sheet adjusted to usd - Fed reverse repo - Treasury general account + Assets held at money market funds Looks as if 1% rise in liquidity = 5% Rise in Crypto Michael Howell thinks there is a 6 week lag with liquidity and Bitcoin, and 6 month Lag with Liquidity and Gold Only Allows a Weekly Timeframe. A more experience trader/chartist I'm sure could improve this draw. Copy and Paste Below into Trading View: FRED:WALCL+FRED:JPNASSETS*FX_IDC:JPYUSD+ECONOMICS:CNCBBS*FX_IDC:CNYUSD-FRED:RRPONTSYD-FRED:WTREGEN+FRED:MMMFFAQ027S
FRED:WALCLLong
by will_moriarty
Macro Monday 44 (Chart B) - China Manufacturing Caixin PMI PLEASE REVIEW Macro Monday 44 for the full post. This chart is presented here so that we can update it at a later date only. It is also included in the prior post China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024. ▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024). ▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024.
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by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 44~China NBS PMI & Manufacturing Caixin PMIMacro Monday 44 The China NBS PMI and Manufacturing Caixin PMI (both released Tuesday 30th April 2024) China NBS General PMI – Surveys by 3,200 large corporations ▫️ Provided by the National Bureau of Labor Statistics ▫️ Based on a large sample size surveying 3,200 companies across China. ▫️ The NBS PMI has a stronger focus on larger state-owned firms. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024. Both the Manufacturing Caixin PMI and the China NBS General PMI are of companies that are mostly export-orientated & located along China’s Costal Regions. These are the manufacturing and export hubs of China, the likes of major coastal regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai which have strategic access to ports and shipping routes. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion in 2023. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from both the PMI charts we are about to review below. Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indices; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. Reading both PMI’s: >50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. < 50 represents contraction A reading of 50 indicates no change. The Charts China NBS General PMI – Surveys from 3,200 large corporations (subject chart above) ▫️ After hitting an all time low of 28.9 in Feb 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s NBS General PMI has experienced significant fluctuations. ▫️ The NBS PMI made two subsequent significant lows in Apr and Dec 2022 at approx. 42.6. ▫️ By March 2023, the PMI reached an all-time high of 57.0, indicating strong expansion in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. ▫️ This fell to a low of 50.3 in Dec 2023, and since then we have risen to 52.7 in Mar 2023. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surverys from 650 SME’s ▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024). ▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. Both PMI's are in expansionary territory which is positive news for China production and exports. SME's appear to have made a more gradual and measured recovery in the Caixin PMI versus the volatile nature of the large corporations in the NBS PMI. Regardless both are swinging higher towards 52 or 53 placing them in the expansionary mode. Potential Trade Set Up On a separate note, adding to China's expansionary potential from above economic data and the PMI charts, one of the worlds greatest traders Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt recently posted a potential buy signal one of Chinas main indexes, the Heng Seng Index which looks to have formed a Head and Shoulders bottom with a recent break out (see most recent post under this one). The Heng Seng Index (HSI) serves as a great proxy for Asian markets, its the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong and includes 82 constituent companies, representing about 60% of the total capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The companies in the HSI are considered blue chips and thus the index operates a good basal gauge of market sentiment in China. Definitely a chart to add to your arsenal for Asian markets. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Lets get after this week 💪🏻 PUKA
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by PukaCharts
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
How High will Gold Rally Reach?How high will gold prices reach? They will rise in proportion to the U.S. debt. Today, we will study the relationship between U.S. debt and gold prices during these periods. We will also explore how high gold prices might go and how soon they could reach these levels. Micro Fold Futures Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by konhow
2
Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI Macro Monday 43 Japan Composite PMI – Japan’s Business Activity (Flash PMI is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024) Unfortunately, I had great difficulty in locating the Japan Composite Flash PMI in chart form on TradingView (it appears to not be available). Instead we will briefly cover the Japan Composite PMI chart which is the final PMI released later on Tuesday 7th May 2024 (for April). We can review the Flash PMI figures that are released tomorrow regardless for an indication. The flash consists of about 90% of the final PMI input thus is a good forward view on how the final PMI will come in on the 7th May 2024. Over the past three weeks we have covered the following three indicators for Japan: 1.Macro Monday 41 - Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) 🚨 Pessimistic but with an improving long term trend. A positive ranging move from 28.6 in Nov 2022 to 39.5 in April 2024. This is the highest reading in c. 5 years, a significant milestone and trend higher. A move above 40.86 would signify a move above the historical average level of consumer sentiment (less pessimistic, as only above 50 it optimistic). 2. Macro Monday 42 - Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) ✅ Business Optimism is high with the Japan Reuters Tankan Index standing at +9, down from the previous month's 10 however firmly in the positive (above zero). 3. Macro Monday 43 - Japan Composite PMI ✅ THIS WEEK we take a quick look at the Japan Composite PMI which is firmly in the positive at 51.7 (above 50 is expansionary and below 50 is contractionary). As you can see from the chart below we have been in an uptrend since Nov 2023 The Japan Composite PMI for March 2024 was 51.7, indicating continued expansion in private sector activity (businesses). This matches the optimistic business sentiment in the Japan Reuters Tankan Index. This marked the third consecutive month of growth and the strongest pace since late September in PMI. The service sector saw solid expansion, while the decline in manufacturing production softened slightly. New orders accelerated to a seven-month peak, primarily led by the service economy. Employment growth was the steepest since May 2023, and there was a marginal rise in outstanding business. Input prices expanded robustly, leading businesses to increase their selling prices at the most pronounced rate for seven months. Overall, the PMI provides insight into the health of Japan’s private sector economy The overview of the past three weeks we covered and what they broadly tell us? 👇🏻 Japan Businesses are in expansion and optimistic whilst the Japanese Consumer remains reserved In contrast to the positive Business Sentiment and Business Activity in Japan, the Japanese consumer is not as optimistic and appears to be trailing business behind sentiment(RTI) and activity (PMI). The Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) came in at 39.5 for March. Whilst this was the highest reading in 5 years for the Japan CCI and demonstrated a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022, the Japan CCI remains below its historical average level of 40.86. Despite a sizable recovery since Nov 2022, the current 39.5 suggests the Japanese Consumer is still more pessimistic than the historical average. Whats the Japan PMI made up of? The Japan Composite PMI is a weighted average of several key components that provide insight into the health of the private sector economy. Here are the main components : New Orders (30%): Measures the volume of new orders received by businesses. An increase in new orders suggests growing demand and potential future production. Output (25%): Reflects the level of production or business activity. Higher output indicates expansion, while lower output signals contraction. Employment (20%): Tracks changes in employment levels. A rising employment index indicates job creation and economic growth. Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%): Monitors the time it takes for suppliers to deliver goods or services. Longer delivery times may indicate supply chain disruptions. Stocks of Purchases (10%): Measures inventory levels. An increase in stocks suggests businesses are building up inventories, while a decrease may indicate reduced demand. The above components collectively provide a comprehensive view of economic conditions in Japan’s private sector How to read the PMI chart The Composite PMI varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating overall growth compared to the previous month, and below 50 indicating contraction. PUKA
J
by PukaCharts
Monetary Policy Apr 24I believe the SBP will keep the policy rate unchanged at 22% in the upcoming MPC meeting. Due to the following points: 1. Inflation has been decreasing month by month due to lower food inflation, which holds greater weightage in our national CPI. However, it's important to note that this decrease may be temporary, as it coincides with the wheat cutting crop time, which will decrease wheat prices. But this is a one-time event, and inflation may increase again next month when prices stabilize. 2. The upcoming budget is expected to widen the country's deficit, which will necessitate increased taxes, potentially leading to an increase in inflation. 3. Conversations with the IMF suggest that they may recommend additional taxes, which could contribute to a decrease in inflation. 4. Ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran could lead to an increase in petrol prices, thereby contributing to inflation. As I check many poll results, the monetary policy rate remains the same
ECONOMICS:PKINTR
by Faizansajid
Eurozone Core & Headline CPI overviewEUROZONE CPI Eurozone Headline and Core CPI for October both came in as expected (decrease) Eurozone Headline CPI: MoM – Actual 0.1% / Exp. 0.1% / Prev. 0.3% YoY – Actual 2.9% / Exp. 2.9% / Prev. 4.3% (purple on chart) Eurozone Core CPI: MoM – Actual 0.2% / Exp. 0.2% / Prev. 0.2% YoY – Actual 4.2% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.5% (blue on chart) The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 0 – 2% from 2015 – 2020 below.
ECONOMICS:EUCIR
by PukaCharts
1
Macro Monday 42 ~ Japan Business Sentiment (ReutersTankanIndex)Macro Monday 42 Japan Reuters Tankan Index – Business Sentiment (Released this Wednesday 17th April 2024) Firstly lets briefly cover the Japan Consumer Sentiment we covered last week, Japan Consumer Sentiment Last week we covered the Japan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which provided a great indication of how the Japanese consumer is feeling. The Japan CCI surveys have a reliable 90.6% response rate from c. 8,400 households. The Japan CCI came in at 39.5 for March last week which was the highest reading in 5 years and demonstrates a trending recovery from lows of 28.6 in Nov 2022. Any figure below 50 on the Japan CCI is pessimistic however historically the index has only ever rose above 50 briefly twice. We discussed how this is due to many factors such as the Japanese being conservative and risk averse. To remedy this and help find a threshold, I used the historical average level of 40.86 as an indicator of above average historical consumer sentiment (however still pessimistic). If we break above the 40.86 level in coming months this would be a good signal of improving sentiment, essentially that the Japanese consumer is less pessimistic than on average, however still pessimistic. Japan Business Sentiment This week we are looking at the Japan Reuters Tankan Index (RTI) which is essentially Japan’s Business Sentiment Indicator. Why is Business Sentiment in Japan an important macro-economic metric to observe? 1.Japan’s manufacturing output for 2021 was valued at $1.025 trillion USD, making it one of the world’s largest manufacturers. The country is known for its high-quality production in areas such as automobiles, electronics, and robotics 2.Japan contributes c.7.2% towards the world’s total manufacturing output, showcasing its critical role in the global supply chain and its influence on international trade. 3.Japan makes up 8% of total global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. 4.Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China Now that we understand that Japan is one of the major manufacturing and economic hubs of the world, lets now try to understand how optimistic or pessimistic Japan businesses are feeling at present. The Japan RTI is collated from data from major leading Japanese companies. 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures advise of improving (above 0) or worsening conditions (below 0). For reference the 200 non-manufacturing companies include the likes of services, retail, finance, and real estate. The Chart You will see, as outlined on the chart, that the Japan RTI is made up of 4 sub categories: 1. Business Conditions (current) 2. Business Outlook (future quarter) 3. Large manufacturing outlook 4. Non-manufacturing sector These subcategories can help in understanding the nuances of sentiment in Japan among different sectors and are crucial for a comprehensive analysis of Japan’s business environment. We might cover these individually when the data is released this Wednesday. I am particularly interested in the future quarter business outlook. Reading the chart Above 0 = Business Optimism Below 0 = Business Pessimism 0 = Neutral The Japan RTI Business sentiment is currently above 0, firmly in the optimistic zone at 10. You can see that we have been rejected from the 12 – 13 level three times since 2022 (Aug 2022, Aug 2023 & Dec 2023). If we break above this level it will be the first time in over 2 years that Japan Business sentiment reached this high. Expectations for the coming release this Wednesday are for a reduction to 9. So expectations are low for this weeks release. Japan Consumer Sentiment has risen from a major low that was established in Nov 2022 and has since been on a significant up trend moving from 28.6 to 39.5. Whilst still in the pessimistic zone the consumer index moves closer towards the historical sentiment average of 40.86. The Japan RTI Business Sentiment appears to have followed suit rising from a low in Jan 2023 a few months later and is now reaching for recent highs of 12 (current reading of 10 with 9 anticipated this week) Both the Japan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Japan RFI Business Sentiment Index are trending towards higher optimism (or less pessimism) but have a bit more work to do to offer some confirmatory action. We will look at the Japan Flash Composite PMI next week which is released Tuesday 23rd April 2024. This will help add perspective in the form of manufacturing/services data directly relating to New Orders, Output, Employment, Deliveries and Stock. In between now and then I will update the above Japan RTI Business sentiment index this Wednesday and update you on Japan CPI which is released this Friday also (something to watch out for). We will gradually get familiar the macro-economic data that matters across the globe here on Macro Mondays. Again, all these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Thanks for coming along. PUKA
ECONOMICS:JPRTI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 38 - German Zew Sentiment Index (extra chart)Macro Monday 38 - Please review the full report shared prior to this. This is only the German chart in Isolation. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:DEESI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38 The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024) ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research. There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday; 1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 25 for Feb 2024) 2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024) EURO AREA ZEW INDEX This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants. EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts
MACRO MONDAY 21~NAHB Housing Market IndexMACRO MONDAY 21 NAHB Housing Market Index The NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) is compiled from a monthly survey issued by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) to U.S. builders in order to measure the current and forward looking sentiment for single-family homes being built or with the prospect of being built in the U.S. In the survey builders rate their current single-family sales, sales prospects over the next six months, and the traffic of prospective buyers. The NAHB Builders consists of more than more than 700 state and local associations with 140,000 members. According to the NAHB these builders account for some 80% of the new homes built in the U.S. Correlation with U.S. Housing Starts The HMI displays a close correlation with “U.S. Housing Starts”. U.S Housing starts are a broader measure of new residential construction for privately owned homes which includes multi-family housing (units & apartment complexes). U.S. Housing Starts is supplied monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau from surveys conducted and is considered a key economic indicator of the overall housing sector. The release of U.S. Housing Starts is the day after the HMI, so the HMI gives us a day head start on the 11thbusiness day of each month (16th Nov), with Housing Starts released on the 12th business day (17th Nov). The correlation between the HMI and the U.S. Housing Starts: The NAHB release on Thurs 16thNov (11th Business Day) came in at 34 ▫️ HMI readings above 50 reflect a generally favorable market view and outlook in the housing sector whilst a reading below 50 indicates weakness in the housing sector. ▫️ Since July 2023 the HMI has fallen from 56 down to 34. ▫️ The HMI registered an all-time high reading in November 2020 at 90 and since then has made a series of lower highs over 32 months. These lower highs combined with a reading below 50 do not bode well on the recession front as you can see from the below chart (red arrows). Similar to recent months, from May – Aug 1989 the HMI peaked its head above the 50 level for these four summer months before tanking down to 20. From May – Aug 2023 the HMI briefly rose above the 50 level in similar fashion and appears to now be reducing at a rapid rate. An interesting level to watch will be the diagonal support line at approx. 31 (dashed line). If held it would be a higher low and could indicate a pause in the decline. A level to keep an eye on because if lost it means we have consistently made lower lows and lower highs. Not a good look at all and we would be eyeing the 20 level in such a scenario. US Housing Starts ▫️ US Housing Starts release on Friday 17th Nov (12th Business Day) which provides for Octobers figures came in higher than expected at 1,372K vs the 1,350K estimate. Building Permits came in higher than expected at 1,487K vs the 1,450K estimate. ▫️ Given that the HMI is in less than favorable territory at 34 (HMI only accounts for single family homes), the higher than expected US Housing Starts could be an indication that larger multi-family housing (units and apartments) are being built at a greater rate than single-family houses. In any event US Housing Starts has been in decline since April 2022 In summary the charts suggest the long term trend for both the NAHB and US Housing Starts are in decline with multi-unit properties (Apartments) being more rapidly built in recent months than individual homes. We will keep an eye on the these metrics going forward and are now aware we can get a days advance indication from NAHB ahead of US Housing Starts being released. PUKA
ECONOMICS:USHMI
by PukaCharts
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