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Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders, Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
How California Boomers Screwed Gen ZThe Golden State once glittered with the promise of the American Dream, a paradise where surf meets turf and everyone could afford a slice of heaven. But thanks to the Boomer generation, those dreams have been bulldozed and replaced with vacation homes for the wealthy and overpriced rental units. Gen Z, you might as well start saving your pennies for rent instead of a mortgage. The same folks who wax nostalgic about the good old days when they bought homes for a song have now orchestrated an epic housing crisis, ensuring that California’s golden dream stays just that – a dream. Welcome to the Golden State, where a once prosperous and burgeoning society has fallen victim to institutional decay and a shrinking middle class, courtesy of our dear Boomers who mastered the art of NIMBYism and speculative real estate. Every generation’s moral narrative is a cover story for their greatest theft. What does this moral narrative look like for California Boomers? Well it’s superficial environmental sustainability under a facade of social progressivism. And the theft? Now that would be the Boomers stealing the opportunity and success of future generations. CEQA, California's Environmental Quality Act, was supposed to protect nature, but Boomers turned it into a weapon to block new housing. By crying "environmental concerns," they've stalled countless developments, preserving their scenic views while future generations are priced out of homeownership. It’s a classic Boomer move: using a green facade to guard their golden nest eggs, all while younger Californians scramble for overpriced rentals. Thanks for the "environmentalism," Boomers—we'll be enjoying it from our 300SF apartment that cost $4,000 a month.
FRED:MEHOINUSCAA646N
by defrog_god
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by seventyfiveinvest
July Economic Calendar - IMPORTANT EventsIt’s going to be a busy month for the Chair of the Fed (Jerome Powell), who delivers a speech today and then will testify later this month in front of Congress to provide updates on monetary policy decisions. Will we gain clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts this year, and if they are even being considered? Crypto in June - How BTC responds June saw significant volatility across the crypto market. Bitcoin fluctuated between price highs above $70,000 and lows of around $60,000, with substantial movement around 4 June when Bitcoin peaked above $71,000, before declining on 6 June and continuing a downward trend and falling to levels last seen in May. ETH and altcoins followed along, with Ethereum down approximately 11% in June . Pulling it back to the US markets, some analysts argue that the fluctuations was largely driven by uncertainty surrounding inflation data. The drop to $60k could likely be due to the reducing likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank this year, contrary to earlier investor anticipations (causing hesitation and a cautious approach). Upcoming Events that could Affect Markets: ❗ Tuesday, 2 July 📢 Jerome Powell speech Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide an economic overview today, outlining current monetary policies. He will answers questions and the outcome of this speech can significantly impact financial markets and investor sentiment. ❗Wednesday, 3 July 📢 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) The upcoming FOMC minutes are expected to provide more details on the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, and its revised economic projections. Key points could include the reasons behind the more hawkish stance on rate cuts, and the implications of updated forecasts for unemployment and inflation. ❗Friday, 5 July📢 US Unemployment Rate The US unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic health, influencing consumer spending, corporate profits and the social sentiment. During May the US jobs sector added 272,000 jobs, further casting doubt on the rate cuts in the US this year. ❗Tuesday, 9 July 📢 Fed Chair Powell testimony Jerome Powell is set to discuss the state of the economy, monetary policy decisions, and also outline future policy intentions in his twice-a-year testimony in front of Congress. ❗Thursday, 11 July 📢 US Inflation Figures The year-on-year and month-on-month inflation numbers provide crucial insights into purchasing power trends, influencing market expectations for interest rates and the overall economic outlook. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% in May, the smallest advance in core CPI since October 2023. Take extra caution when over the next few weeks as volatility will be likely depending on the outcome of these events. _______________________ ECONOMICS:USINTR FRED:UNRATE ECONOMICS:USIRYY
FRED:SP500
by Crypto-Check-
$EUIRYY -EU YoY (CPI) source: EUROSTAT The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023, reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% . Meanwhile, The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, also cooled to 4.2% in October; marking its lowest point since July 2022. However, both rates remained above the European Central Bank's target of 2%. The energy cost tumbled by 11.1% (compared to -4.6% in September), and the rates of inflation eased for both food, alcohol, and tobacco (7.5% compared to 8.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (3.5% compared to 4.1%). Services inflation remained relatively stable at 4.6%, compared to 4.7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1% in October, after a 0.3% gain in September.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Grain Market and Bread Prices - Its Potential TrendIn today’s tutorial, we will track the potential prices of this important staple, wheat, which is used to make our bread. In these studies, we will use a combination of technical analysis and fundamental developments to support this view. Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options Ticker: ZW Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
2
Unemployment & The Coming RecessionOnce the Unemployment Rate crosses the 36 mo MA this has historically marked a period of a coming Recession. As you can tell from the RSI indicator we entered into this phase a few months ago. I'm posting this chart because tomorrow Biden is going to tell everyone how great the Economy is doing (wait for it), but the Unemployment Chart indicates we have officially moved into the "Recession" category and there is nothing on the horizon that says this situation is going to be improving, in fact, millions of illegal aliens now flooding into the country indicates the situation will be getting much worse. Banks will begin seizing a record number of properties in foreclosures and bankruptcies as the Unemployment Rate continues upward thanks to the plans they implemented. These periods of "Boom and Bust" are completely fabricated through the policies they implement. There is no reason why this chart shouldn't be mostly a steady line with minor hills and valleys in what would be considered a growing and healthy economy. Also note the Unemployment Rate has never returned back to it's 1972 levels following the removal of the Gold Standard in 1971 by Nixon.
FRED:UNEMPLOYShort
by cldx
United States has Already Entered RecessionMean Deviation Index when plotted against United States Coincident Economic Activity Index has a 100% track record of predicting recessions since data began over 60 years ago Something is about to cause unemployment to explode. Which it likely already has, it's just that the data has been altered to such a degree it's unable to see in the official government numbers Looking back at the chart the current situation looks similar to what occurred in 1975
ECONOMICS:USLEI
by GoodTexture
Mortgage Product BiasMortgage Product Bias Indicator Overview: The "Mortgage Product Bias" indicator is designed to assist investors, analysts, and mortgage brokers in identifying trends and potential biases in the mortgage products market. This tool evaluates the relative positioning of the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cash rate against a calculated average interest rate over a specified period, providing insights into whether market conditions favor fixed or variable rate mortgage products. Functionality: Data Sources: The indicator utilizes real-time data from the RBA cash rate (AUINTR), integrating these values to generate insights based on historical averages. Average Interest Calculation: Utilizes a user-defined number of months (default is 7 months) to calculate the exponential moving average (EMA) of the cash rate, which represents the average interest rate over the specified period. Bias Identification: Determines the bias towards fixed or variable rate products: Fixed Rate Bias: Triggered when the current cash rate is higher than the average interest rate, indicating a potential market leaning towards fixed-rate products. Variable Rate Bias: Triggered when the current cash rate is lower than the average interest rate, suggesting a favorable condition for variable rate products. Usage: For Investors: Use this indicator to gauge the best times to enter into fixed or variable rate mortgage agreements based on historical pricing trends. For Analysts and Mortgage Brokers: Provides a visual tool for advising clients, preparing reports, and making data-driven decisions in the mortgage industry. Visual Elements: Color-coded Display: Red indicates a fixed rate bias. Green indicates a variable rate bias. Gray indicates neutral conditions where the cash rate aligns closely with the average rate. Horizontal Line: Represents the threshold level at -0.5% to highlight significant deviations in the cash rate from the average. Implementation: To use the Mortgage Product Bias indicator, simply add it to your TradingView chart from the Indicators menu and configure the length of the average interest rate calculation as needed. The tool is designed for ease of use and can be customized to fit individual or institutional analysis workflows. Disclaimer: This indicator is intended as a tool for financial analysis and decision-making. Users should consider additional factors and conduct comprehensive market research before making financial decisions based on this indicator.
ECONOMICS:AUINTR
by ThomasMakin
Fraud Update - Mainstream NewsLast week, on the television show "Good Morning America", they ran a segment about "the economy". During this segment, the Disney-owned (short Disney) "news outlet", reported the unemployment rate is 3.7%. ... ...... ............ the unemployment rate is currently 4%. No big deal you say? Well, I disagree. Namely because: 1. They're wrong, 2. finding out the unrate is as simple as googling "unrate". So for some reason the supposedly professional news team at Disney-owned ABC, chose to incorrectly report a key datapoint. Lol. Why the fake news, ABC?
FRED:UNRATEShort
by ChiefMacro
What drives FreshForex clients' profits?Specialists at Goldman Sachs Group have revised their year-end forecast for the S&P 500 index (#SP500) upward to 5,600 points. This adjustment is based on the assumption that negative earnings will be below average and that the price-to-earnings ratio is now considered fair. Yesterday, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,488 points! The index has already grown by 15.8% since the beginning of the year, and the upward trend is expected to continue. We previously discussed the rise of the S&P 500 in April. Our traders closely monitor the market and engage in active trading, so this new surge was not a surprise to them. The growth of leading American companies strengthens the resilience of the U.S. economy The stock price of Applied Materials (#AppliedMat) has increased by 56% since the beginning of the year. Applied Materials is an American corporation that provides equipment, services, and software for the production of semiconductor chips used in electronics, flat panel displays, smartphones, televisions, and solar products. The rising demand for electronic chips fuels investor interest in this company. Motorola Solutions (#Motorola), the successor of one of the oldest U.S. corporations, has transformed into a leading manufacturer of specialized communication devices and holds a monopoly in certain niches. The company's stock has grown by 22.6% since the start of the year. Motorola Solutions focuses on the highly profitable public sector procurement, leading to steady revenue growth for MSI. Procter & Gamble (#PG) is a global leader in the consumer goods market, well-established in the U.S. and abroad. The stock of this defensive goods group (covering beauty and grooming, healthcare, fabric and home care, and baby, feminine, and family care products) has been growing steadily and reliably. Over the year, their value has increased by 15.6%. Start your journey in the world of financial investments with advanced trading platforms, comfortable conditions, and attractive bonuses! Trade with FreshForex!
FRED:SP500Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
FED hawkish with encouraging inflation data. ...are we at a pantomime of a creaking economic system? bond futures are currently pricing in a cut of just over 25 basis points in fed funds between now and the end of the year. While the Fed bides time on a possible interest rate cut, inflation data is encouraging. Core goods (excluding food and energy), the category that drove the inflation spike in 2021 and 2022, registered its biggest deflation since 20 years. Next cut in September? Let me know your opinion with a comment. Thank you
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by NewHOrizons1