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Economy

🟩 Margin Debt with brokers points upWhen we look at the first chart the Margin Debt with brokers (aka how much the brokers are deploying margin) - we see a positive relationship with the times when brokers are on margin (aka buying a lot) and the market going up. When we analyse the Rate of Change of this stat for the last 15months we can see that currently we are getting to a state of bearishness close to the 2008 and 2002 periods. This of course is a contrarian indicator and could point to a move higher. This is a long term assessment, but it is a good point to include in your analysis. However remember we NEVER have confirmed of the NET NEW HIGHS - hence this market has still not confirmed Bull Status, at best we have Bull-transition. So be very cautious of the market.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QLong
by TintinTrading
⚖️ 📊 Why Is The Fed Rate @ 5.33% ? - Here Is The Answer🛡️ Now in the last videos, i said i was not going to teach you -- Risk management but I have changed my mind -- in this video, i break down Risk management using US Economy as an example take notes -- Watch this video now before you trade -- Disclaimer: This is not financial advice do your own research before you trade -- Do not buy or sell anything i recommend to you -- 🚫📊 **Trading Disclaimer** 🚫📊 The information provided is for educational purposes -- only and should not be considered as financial advice. -- Trading involves risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. -- Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor -- before making any investment decisions. Remember to set appropriate stop-loss levels to manage risk. -- Rocket boost this content to learn more
FRED:FEDFUNDSEducation
by lubosi
Macro Monday 14~Unemployment Rate Rise Macro Monday 14 US Employment Rate Pre-Recession Indications The Unemployment Rate tells us how many people in the United States are currently without a job and actively looking for one. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates and reports the unemployment rate. In basic terms it consists of the following; Survey: The Bureau of Labor Statistics conducts a regular survey of a sample of households across the country. They ask people whether they are working or actively trying to find work. Calculation: Based on the survey results, the Bureau calculates the percentage of people who are unemployed (those without jobs but actively seeking employment) compared to the total number of people in the labor force (those who are either employed or actively looking for work). Reporting: This percentage is then reported as the unemployment rate. For example, if 5 out of every 100 people in the labor force are unemployed, the unemployment rate would be 5%. At present the Unemployment rate is 3.8%. In simple terms, the unemployment rate is a way to gauge how many people are struggling to find jobs in the United States. In this respect it is an important economic indicator that helps us and policy makers understand the health of the job market. The Chart In today’s chart I will be analysing the history of the Unemployment Rate and how it has behaved both before and during recessions. The aim of the analysis is to help us understand the distinct pre-recession patterns and levels that occur prior to recession so that we can prepare ourselves should these levels be breached or these patterns play out again. These historic levels will be placed on the chart for you to monitor from today forward. Chart Outline: 1. Recessions are the red zones (also numbered & labelled 1 – 12 and on the chart itself) 2. Increases in the Unemployment Rate prior to recession are in blue. - These blue zones start at the lowest level the Unemployment Rate established prior to the recession periods in red. - Basis points (bps) have been used to show the change in the value within the blue zones (pre-recession zones) e.g. recession No. 2 The Great Financial Crisis had a pre-recession Unemployment Rate increase from 4.39% - 5.00% which is a 0.61% increase in the unemployment rate or a 61 bps increase. - Peaks: I have also included peak bps increases within these pre-recession periods (within the blue zones). These are times that the Unemployment Rate peaked higher but reduced thereafter but a recession still followed. Chart Findings: 1. In 10 out of 12 of the recessions outlined the Unemployment Rate increased in advance of the on-coming recession (in the blue zones) demonstrating that initial early increases to the Unemployment Rate can act as an early recession warning signal: - An average increase of 33.5 bps over an average timeframe of 7.3 months is observed pre-recession. - The maximum increase in the pre-recession blue zones was 71bps over 8 months. This max increase was observed prior to 1980 Volcker/Energy Recession no. 6 on the chart (this increase was from 5.59% to 6.30% in the Unemployment Rate itself – a 71bps increase). This recession was induced by Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden increase to interest rates much like those that have been imposed by Jerome Powell over recent months (Volcker was appointed in Aug 1979 and got to work quick). - The max timeframe for a rising Unemployment Rate prior to recession was 16 months. This was prior to the The Gulf War Recession, no. 4 on the chart (which was considered a short 8 month softer recession). This max 16 month pre-recession timeframe has been marked on the chart to May 2024 in correspondence with today’s pre-recession blue zone timeline – so we know where a max timeline would put us (not a prediction). - 2 out of 12 times the Unemployment Rate did not increase prior to recession however it did not decrease either, it based at 0 bps or no change (No.1 COVID-19 Crash and No. 5 The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession). Whilst the Unemployment Rate did not increase, they did temporarily peak higher within the blue zones by 10 bps (No. 1) and 31 bps (No.5) demonstrating the importance of peaks and bases formed prior to an Unemployment rate ramp up and recession. I found the peak increases interesting to include because they illustrate that the Unemployment Rate can oscillate peaking higher temporarily only to form a higher low or return to its starting point, but a peak, if significant enough could be a telling indicator. The most notable peaks are the following; 62 bps (no. 12), 61 bps (no. 9), 60 bps (no. 10), 30 bps (No. 8), 31bps (No. 5) and only 10 bps (No. 2) for the COVID Crash. All of these peaks reduced thereafter within their pre-recession blue zones but a recession still ensued. A sudden increase in the unemployment rate should be taken seriously. I will include a subsequent data table chart that outlines these peaks and all other data utilized for Chart 1’s illustration and findings. We are currently in dangerous territory as we have passed the average timeframe of 7.3 months of increases to the Unemployment Rate and the Unemployment Rate increased by 40 bps over that period which is higher than the historical average of 33.5bps. We have surpassed both averages. The max historical pre-recession increase is 71 bps (No. 6) so this is a level to watch going forward. This translates to a level of 4.11% in the Unemployment Rate (marked on the chart). Similar to today’s Unemployment Rate level, there are two very similar instances in the past where the Unemployment Rate increased from c.3.4% to c.3.8% prior to recession (See RED ARROWS on chart). These both took 7 – 10 months to play out with a 10 – 42 bps increase to be established before recession hit. This is very similar to today’s levels which are at 7 months and 40bps of an increase with the 8th month being released this Friday 6th October 2023 which should be very revealing. We are now well armed with an historical chart as a reference point for any upcoming Unemployment Rate figures released in coming months. We know we have surpassed the averages in terms of timeframe (7 months) and the 40 bps increase is above the avg. 33.5 bps. We can refer back to this chart using Trading View, press play and see if we are breaching the max pre-recession level of 4.11% (the 71bps move) or other extreme pre-recession levels such as the dot.com and GFC Unemployment Rates (both marked on the chart). And if you don’t frequent the chart on trading view I will update you here regardless. Lets see what Friday brings…. PUKA
FRED:UNRATE
by PukaCharts
1
🏘 Housing Bubble v 2.0: What Does It Mean for US Stock MarketMuch to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says more than half of U.S. metro areas registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023. So much for the idea that a "housing recession" would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes. The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: Home values started rising again. NAR reports that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. Home prices in August 2023 rose 3.9 percent year-0ver-year to reach $407,100 — near the all-time-high of $413,800, and only the fifth time any monthly median has eclipsed the $400,000 mark since NAR began keeping records. The housing recession is essentially over, or has just began!? Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates have soared past 7 percent, reaching their highest level in more than 20 years in August. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s August data showing only a 3.3-month supply. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Turn Higher, as 200-Month SMA Key Resistance was broken earlier in 2022. Average Annual Mortgage Interest. 30 000 U.S. Dollars Rubicon is at the hands. After the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters he was keeping a close eye on the housing market. "Housing is very interest-sensitive, and it’s one of the first places that’s either helped by low rates or held back by higher rates," - Powell said in the press conference. "We’re watching that situation carefully." Housing economists and analysts agree, regardless, that any market correction is likely to be a modest one. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession. Is the housing and stock markets are going to crash? The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2000s. Back then, home values crashed with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the housing boom is threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and a potential recession so buyers and homeowners are asking a familiar question: Is the housing market about to crash? 5 reasons ("cast in bronze") there will be no housing market crash 1. Inventories are still very low. 2. Builders didn’t build quickly enough to meet demand. 3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers. 4. Lending standards remain strict and impose tough standards on borrowers. 5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices, and it’s nothing like it was two decades ago. Funny, but all of that adds up to the one only consensus: Yes, home prices are still pushing the bounds of affordability. But "Ooh not", this boom shouldn’t end in bust. 😏 History does not repeat itself. But often rhymes. Technical graph for ECONOMICS:USSFHP - U.S. Single Family Home Prices illustrates there has been a while, without new all time highs in Top Four U.S. Stock market indices while Housing Bubble was exist in 2000s. So lets see, will be the same in 2020s or not, while 2023 is a second straight year without new all time peaks in S&P500 SP:SPX , in Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX , in Dow Jones Index AMEX:DJIA as well as in Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by Pandorra
Qualitative Fundamental Analysis of US Economy Oct.2023The most important factor for the economy is the behaviour of GDP. Several economic indicators are tracked to determine the overall economic situation and GDP growth. A technical recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. If GDP grows less than 3% on average for the year, the economy is not growing fast enough and this will lead to unemployment. At its core, the Federal Reserve has dual mandate policy: price stability(2% inflation for a year) and maximum employment (max Unemployment rate 4%) . CPI Inflation projection: inflation is forecast at 4.7% in 2023 and is expected to further slow down to 3.0% in 2024. Actual CPI : 3.7 % PCE Inflation projection: inflation to be 3.3 percent in 2023, 2.6 percent in 2024, and 2.2 percent in 2025, and the Federal Reserve expects a similar outlook of 3.3 percent, 2.5 Actual PCE : 3.5% Unemployment rate projection: The unemployment rate reaches 4.1 percent by the end of 2023 and 4.7 percent by the end of 2024 before falling slightly, to 4.5 percent, in 2025. Actual: 3,8% GDP Growth projection: Real GDP increases by 1.5 percent in 2024 and by 2.4 percent in 2025. Actual: 2,4% Interest rates projection:The Fed now expects its benchmark federal funds rate to close out 2024 at an effective rate of 5.1%, which is higher than its June forecast of 4.6% Interest rates: 5.5% MONEY MARKET Yields From the chart above we can see when the recession is coming. The 10Y-2Y has already fallen below 0 and we should prepare for a recession when it comes above 0. The yield curve (all yields) is slightly inverted, but only because of the 20-year yields. The overall curve is normal, which means that investors are not worried about the future, at least for now and they invest more in long-term bonds. According to the FED, we should expect a mild recession at the end of this year. The SP500 seems to be consolidating for the next few months. Corporate Bonds and Credit Spread Spreads are relatively stable. They do not point to a recession. Money Supply M2 The money supply is also stable, which means that the printer is not running. This is a good sign considering the banking crisis. interest rates The last time IR was so high was during the last recession in 2008. History could repeat itself. At the last FOMC meeting, the FED paused rates but said they would remain high. This could be exactly what happened in 2007. FED paused after aggressive hike and recession came. SERVEYS ISM PMI, NMI The historical correlation between real GDP growth and the ISM PMI/NMI is 85%. PMI/NMI are leading indicators and they will predict how GDP will move. It is a short to long term prediction (within 12 months). The reading continued to point to another albeit smaller deterioration in the manufacturing performance, as contractions in output and new orders softened. Meanwhile, sufficient stocks of inputs and finished items, alongside still subdued demand, led firms to reduce their purchasing activity sharply again and firms continued to work through inventories in lieu of expanding their input buying, which contributed to a further improvement in supplier performance. Consumer Sentiment Index(UMCSI) The level of consumer confidence in stability and future prospects can be used to understand the overall trend in the economy. Still, consumers are unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry. From a technical perspective the chart looks very suspicious. Like bullback before the new swing. Will see. Building Permits The jump in permits suggested that new construction continues to thrive, driven by a shortage of homes available in the market, despite the dampening effect of rising mortgage rates on housing demand. NFIB Business optimism index Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. Also, the number of small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined (seven points from July to a net negative 37%). “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street. Overall the business is not optimistic for the near future. Leading Economic Index The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The US LEI continues to signal a recession. Combined with the yield curves, it looks like a recession could be coming very soon. INFLATION Total Inflation = 30% CPI (demand) + 40% PCE(supply) + 30% other factors) CPI The FED's target may be 2%, but the reality is that inflation is between 2-4%. Inflation has risen again in recent months and current oil prices suggest that it will remain high. Investors are worried about future prices. The same thing happened in the 80s. The FED does not want the same to happen today, which is why they have been so hawkish recently. Core CPI This projection is very scary, but if the economy goes crazy, it can happen, just like in the 80s. I am not predicting that core CPI will rise that much, just pointing out the similarity. PCE Inflation The US personal consumption expenditure price index rose 3.5% year-on-year in August 2023, the most in four months, after an upwardly revised 3.4% rise in July and in line with market expectations. PPI / Core PPI The producer price inflation in the United States accelerated to 1.6% year-on-year in August 2023. This is the second consecutive month. GOVERNMENT Balance sheet The balance sheet is falling, which is deflationary. On the one hand, this is good and gives us an indication that inflation should be contained, but on the other hand, it is a sign of recession. [b ]Cyclical Commodities Trade weighted US Dollar Index Rising trade indices are actually deflationary for the economy. Commodities They stable prices do not give us a clear picture of the near future. Stocks The benchmark indices are falling. The failed to make new HH, suggesting that the will consolidate or fall. Sometimes they are seen as a leading indicator of future GDP and recession. Summery The current pause in interest rates, with the hawkish narrative that rates will stay high for a long time, could be the second phase of the business cycle. The next one is recession. Yield curves have also suggested that the recession is not as far away as we think. The surveys are relatively stable, but the overall picture is not so optimistic. Inflation is on the rise again, which may lead the FED to be more aggressive. They have said many times that they would rather have a recession than a price explosion. They have even warned about a mild recession, how mild we will see. The unemployment rate is still below 4%, but in recent months it has risen from 3.5% to 3.8%. Rising unemployment is a sign of recession. Stock indices have risen in recent months, but future expectations of a new recession, combined with high interest rates and business optimism, are bearish factors for the stock market.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by SerpentForexClub
2
Higher US Interest & Lower Dollar, Why?higher US rates, the US dollar should be trading higher. But inversely, the US dollar became weaker since September last year. In today’s tutorial, we will discuss what is the cause of a weaker US dollar and the future of the US dollar; despite US interest rates could go higher than expected. Bond trading: • US Treasury Bond futures Minimum fluctuation: 1/32 of one point (0.03125) = $31.25 Code: ZB • 10-Year T-Note Minimum fluctuation: 1/2 of 1/32 of one point (0.015625) = $15.625 Code: ZN • 5-Year T-Note Minimum fluctuation: 1/4 of 1/32 of one point (0.0078125) = $7.8125 Code ZF • 2-Year T-Note Minimum fluctuation: 1/8 of 1/32 of one point (0.00390625) = $7.8125 Code ZT Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by konhow
2
Money Supply Contraction Means What?If you have seen the general news that M2 Money Supply is contracting at the greatest rate in 50 years, then you may be wondering why it is happening and what it means. I hope you do, at least. Money Supply is a general term that means the total money available to an economy in the form of cash money in the bank plus loans and short term deposits sitting in banks. It is the purest measure of "gas in the tank" for the economy. If you are going on a long trip (economic growth), it is also helpful to have a tankful of gas to get you there. If you don't have it now, then clearly you will have to stop and get gas along the way. The economy needs money the way we need air to breath, unless we revert to trading goods and services with each other and we all know that isn't easy at all. It is hard to "make change" in case the trade doesn't balance perfectly. Either way, the amount of money in the system turns over a certain amount of times per year and that is called "velocity". The velocity of money is the fudge factor to figure the size of the economy and the amount of money in the economy. Obviously, it is very difficult to track as some money gets spent a hundred times or more and other money gets spent once or twice. It is constantly changing. Net-net though, the quantity of money is the most common way of understanding what inflation "will do" in the future and has been extremely helpful. For now, the indicator points to lower inflation if not deflation in the coming months and quarters. It will take care of itself. Cheers, Tim 2:16PM EST Sep 27, 2023
ECONOMICS:USM2
by timwest
5
SRILANKA TOURIST ARRIVALS PROJECTION FOR 4TH QUARTERTourism has recently played a significant role in Sri Lanka's economy, particularly following the country's default and economic crisis. After experiencing a dramatic decline in tourist arrivals during lockdowns and the pandemic, there has been a steady increase in visitors since September 2022. The winter season has historically been a crucial driver of Sri Lanka's tourism, with the fourth quarter of each year consistently achieving peak levels of visitors over the past decade. Between 2013 and 2019, the country witnessed strong tourism peaks, ranging from 153,000 to 253,000 arrivals, with a consistent mid-range of approximately 180,000 to 224,000. Considering this historical performance, it is reasonable to assume that the fourth quarter of 2023 will once again reach peak levels within the range of 180,000 to 224,000 visitors. This projection and the anticipated performance numbers will provide valuable support to the tourism sector and contribute to the overall economic recovery of Sri Lanka in the fourth quarter of 2023.
ECONOMICS:LKTALong
by TraderChamp-Pro
Turkey's big housing problemTurkey is selling real estate for a passport, you could be a Turkish citizen If you bought 400.000$ It was 250.000$ at the beginning and you only need this flat for 3 years. Right now, Turkey is might be most expensive place in Europe due to interesting economic decisions, expats even leaving Turkey because of that, rents are expensive, food is expensive, energy is expensive. Turkey is no more a holiday destination because of that, Egypt took that this year. Turkish is plunging against the dollar, central bank doesn't have even a penny. Interest rates are 30 right now even low when you compare with real inflation. There will be huge regrets till USA started to print money but Turkey's problems might not so easily.
ECONOMICS:TRHPIShort
by kargaa
1
Month on Month US Inflation Harmonically Set to Rise to 1.94%This is a followup to this year-on-year inflation chart idea posted back in June 2022: The YoY US Inflation rate has been on a trend of going down since it tested the 1.414 PCZ of the Bearish Butterfly above, but recently we have seen the MoM rate slow its descent and form a bottoming pattern with MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence at the 200-Month SMA and now we can see that the MACD has crossed positively as the inflation rate has broken out of its recent range. This harmonically puts it into position where we will likely see it at least hit the 0.886 retrace to complete a small bat pattern, but it could go out of control and go as high as the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension area all the way at about 1.94%. One reason I suspect for the sudden stop of the inflationary decline is due to the Fed not raising rates high enough, fast enough, and then keeping them the same for the last few months. It would also seem that the year-on-year inflation rate is setting up for a similar rise, showing Hidden Bullish Divergence at the Moving Averages and likely one that will result in it going to test higher highs to around its 1.414-1.618 PCZ once area once more before ultimately crashing back down from these highs once the Fed starts to go heavy on rate hikes again. Though the timeframe may be shorter than how it is presented on the chart, I do still suspect we will have action resembling what is projected on the chart below until the Fed starts rising rates aggressively again: This does not mean I think stocks will go up, that the dominance of the dollar will go down, or even that I think the consumer credit situation will improve. Instead, I think the rise in inflation will be fueled by energy, import, and export costs, and that this will be very bad for: Stocks, Consumers, REITs, and Banks overall, and that the Bond Yields will continue to rise at an accelerated rate.
ECONOMICS:USIRMMLong
by RizeSenpai