Get started

Economy

The Debt Ceiling AgreementThe debt ceiling is a limit set by the U.S. Congress on the amount of debt that the federal government can have outstanding. This debt is primarily made up of two components: debt held by the public (like U.S. Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like those in the Social Security Trust Fund). From a financial perspective, the debt ceiling is significant for several reasons: 1. Creditworthiness of the United States: The U.S. government is seen worldwide as an issuer of risk-free assets, primarily because it has never defaulted on its debt. If the debt ceiling is not raised in time, it could potentially lead to a default, shaking the world's confidence in U.S. government securities. This could increase the interest rates that the U.S. has to pay to borrow money in the future. 2. Global Financial Markets Stability: U.S. Treasury securities are used as a benchmark for many other types of credit and are widely held by financial institutions around the world. A default could cause significant upheaval in these markets and potentially lead to a financial crisis. 3. Economic Recession : A default could lead to severe economic consequences. It could cause a sharp decrease in government spending (since the government couldn't borrow to finance its operations), which could in turn lead to job losses and potentially a recession. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of this risk in the case of the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. 4. Budgeting and Planning: The debt ceiling also has implications for how the government budgets and plans its finances. When the debt ceiling is reached, the Treasury Department has to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the government funded, which can create uncertainty and inefficiency. 5. Political Tool: While not strictly a financial point, it's worth noting that the debt ceiling has often been used as a political tool. Lawmakers may refuse to increase the debt ceiling without certain concessions, such as spending cuts or policy changes. This can lead to financial uncertainty, as was the case during the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. The negotiations that led to the agreement were marked by considerable compromise. President Biden, for instance, noted that the agreement represented a compromise where not everyone got what they wanted but was nonetheless an important step forward1. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, despite opposition within his own party, committed to passing the bill within 72 hours of its introduction on the House floor. This commitment was a testament to the urgency felt by lawmakers due to the looming threat of a potential default on the U.S. debt obligations. The agreement was a product of compromise and necessity, driven by the urgent need to avoid a default on U.S. debt obligations. It included a two-year budget deal holding spending flat for 2024 and imposing limits for 2025, effectively reducing spending as Republicans had insisted. This was in exchange for raising the debt limit for two years, until after the next election. The deal would boost spending on the military and veterans' care and cap spending for many discretionary domestic programs. However, the specifics of these spending caps remained subject to further debate between Republicans and Democrats. Conclusion The 2023 U.S. debt ceiling negotiations showcase the intricate dynamics of American politics and its intersection with economic policy. They underscore the importance of compromise in a divided government and the challenges that ideological divergences within parties can pose to such compromise. These negotiations and their outcome also highlight the potential economic implications, such as the risk of default, that can arise when political disagreements hinder prompt fiscal decisions.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188SEducation
by financialflagship
6
Data error Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food And Energy (JPTCPIEFA) & JapHello good morning & good day to all! There seems to be an error for these 2 Japan econ data when we chart on Trading View, Japan Tokyo CPI Ex Food And Energy (JPTCPIEFA) & Japan Tokyo Core CPI (JPTCCPI). Previously, these 2 data have been presented in index values but it seems that yesterday, their format has been changed to y/y % for the last 2 months but does not adjust prior historical data points to y/y. Thus, right now, I cannot do any meaningful analysis of these charts. Wrote in about these errors and sent a ticket to Hep Centre but no reply. Can anyone help over here? or is there a rep from Trading View here? Much appreciated. Thank you
ECONOMICS:JPTCCPI
by Kelvin-Wong
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Breaking DownMoney that is being parked at the Feds Reverse Repo Facility due to attractively high interest rates the fed has set for money parked at the facility has been on a steady decline since late 2022 and we have now confirmed a lower high and are looking to break down below a Bearish Dragon trend line that could be the initial trigger that gets it started to going down all the way to an 88.6% retrace or lower even. One can only speculate that the money exiting this facility will lead to more trading of short term debt on the open market, which could eventually lead to yields coming down overall and for all of this excess liquidity to chase Equities instead as the value of the US Dollar declines due to the shock of all this newly added supply of liquid cash to the open market thereby causing a loosening of market conditions.
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by RizeSenpai
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin. This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price? I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down. I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place. From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles. In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE. If you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Share your thoughts below 🙏
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by FieryTrading
8
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
Tim's Guess for Mortgage Rates for 2023I thought I would publish this "guess" for the sheer entertainment value to show the dramatic increase in mortgage rates and to put in perspective the damage that has likely been done to the purchasing power of home buyers. The Fed has engineered an attempt to shut down an excessive spending to cool the economy down and we are all waiting for reverberations to indicate that they have been successful. M2 money supply, which I will add on a follow-on chart, is declining at a sharp rate which is indicative of recession ahead. I believe this M2 money supply contraction is a sign that mortgage rates will fall and here is a "guess" just to put a guess out there. There is 1 datapoint per week for this series and you can see the box that represents a week as shown with a gray box around the blue line. I added the 2008 contraction for reference. Let's see what happens. I hope this is wrong because it will mean that the economy is falling sharply, but also it would imply that the Fed believes it will have conquered inflation. Tim West April 26, 2023 9:54AM
FRED:MORTGAGE30USShort
by timwest
16
Prediction of Copper prices till 2028Using data from 2001 I identified 3 distinct commodity cycles. After measuring the length and amplitude of the cycles I averaged them to get average cycle length, average cycle difference in high to low price, and average cycle difference in low1 to low2 price. Using this data I created ratios for difference in high to low price/Time and the difference in Low1 to Low2 price/Time and vice versa. Using these ratios I then predicted the next cycle low which came out to be around march of 2026 and falling to $6,237.24 per metric ton of copper. I then used the ratio of the difference in high to low price/Time to determine where prices will be in 2028 which would be 692 days from the previous cycle's end. This came out to be $7879.74 per metric ton of copper. This was for a school project in regards to Barrick Gold's mining endeavor in Pakistan
FRED:PCOPPUSDMLong
by lantsmansam130
1
US banking crisis affects more than just banksIn the high-end dialogue session of the Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum, Zhu Min, former vice president of the International Monetary Fund and former vice governor of the People's Bank of China, had a conversation with Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, on the US banking crisis, the Fed's policy path choices and Hot topics such as the impact of inflation and the causes of inflation will be discussed. Regarding the U.S. banking crisis, Ray Dalio said it is important to realize that this is a pervasive problem that affects more than just the banking industry and that it is currently affecting many banks because many of them have bought government bonds . But many entities actually bought government bonds. And, it's not just US entities that buy US government bonds, but also European entities that buy European bonds because of monetary policy, etc.
FRED:UNRATE
by tangerine111
$WM2NS -And Always Remember ... And Always Remember NOT TO : - LIVE for it - DIE for it - Turn yourself in to a SLAVE for it - Sell the most precious Asset owned, Your TIME - Fall in LOVE with it - Get BLINDED by it - Be GREEDY for it - Do others WRONG to own it - Betray OTHERS TRUST to own it - Put others DOWN if in abundance you own it - FORGET your LOVED ONES for it You and I BOTH Got to be CAREFUL, this is a mutual reminder to my self and you. I love you ! Don't be Miserable ! DO NOT ALLOW THE EVIL of the Money TRAP You Dearly take all these advices and hold them close in to your heart . Have seen people act upon all upmentioned criterieas ! People who let THE EVIL OF MONEY take the best of them. Don't be like them people , I LOVE YOU NEVER FORGET : THEIR MONOPOLY OF MONEY IT'S A BIG FACADE ! IT'S A VERY WELL DESIGNED GAME TO KEEP US IN CHECK , TRAPPED AND MISERABLE TO ENSLAVE US AND MAKE OUR LIFES GO IN VAIN IN ORDER TO OWN IT IN ABUNDANCE OF WHAT THEY SIMPLY PRINT CREATING INFLATION HURTING US
FRED:WM2NS
by Mr_J__fx
2
GDP & Money SupplyThe trajectory of global GDP & Money Supply keeps going up. The World's GDP was 103.86 trillion in 2022 and is forecasted for 112.6 trillion in 2023. As of Nov. 28, 2022, the total global value of the M2 money supply is $82.6 trillion. Gross domestic product (GDP), is an estimate of the total value of goods and services produced in a country during a specified period, it is currently calculated yearly to understand the growth metrics of the country. The calculation is based on nominal GDP, also called GDP at current prices or in value. Countries by GDP is the single most indicator to capture economic activity of all the countries. The largest economies and top 10 countries by GDP in the world are United States, China, Japan, Germany, India, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Russia & Brazil. The United States economy is the largest in the world, measured by nominal GDP, followed by China, the world's second largest with annual growth that consistently outpaces the United States. Below is the latest top 20 list of Countries by GDP, ranked as per the economic activity of each country in 2023. Rank 2022 2023 2024 1 USA 25,035.164 26,185.210 27,057.202 2 China 18,321.197 19,243.974 20,699.148 3 Japan 4,300.621 4,365.976 4,568.729 4 Germany 4,031.149 4,120.242 4,337.385 5 India 3,468.566 3,820.573 4,170.220 6 UK 3,198.470 3,479.468 3,757.403 7 France 2,778.090 2,806.690 2,932.363 8 Canada 2,200.352 2,326.620 2,420.683 9 Russia 2,133.092 2,136.222 2,146.696 10 Brazil 1,894.708 2,059.443 2,200.916 11 Iran 1,973.738 2,044.152 2,135.731 12 Italy 1,996.934 1,991.008 2,059.410 13 South Korea 1,734.207 1,792.467 1,879.043 14 Australia 1,724.787 1,787.948 1,837.686 15 Mexico 1,424.533 1,476.407 1,527.077 16 Spain 1,389.927 1,421.012 1,508.902 17 Indonesia 1,289.429 1,388.683 1,506.988 18 Netherlands 990.583 1,019.762 1,076.955 19 Saudi Arabia 1,010.588 996.390 1,016.690 20 Turkey 853.487 941.551 1,037.858 (Source "populationu GDP List Updated Jan 2023 IMF gdp data in Oct 2022") How Money Supply Is Measured: M0: Referred to as the monetary base, M0 includes all the money in circulation, including money banks hold in reserve. According to the Federal Reserve, there was about $2.3 trillion in circulation as of January 2023. M1: It includes all the M0 money supply, adding the money held in travelers’ checks, demand deposits, other types of checkable deposits and negotiable orders of withdrawal. As of January 2023, the seasonally adjusted stock of M1 totaled $19.64 trillion. M2: It includes all of the currency from the M1 money supply, and expands to include mutual funds, smaller time deposits, money market securities and other types of time deposits. M2 currencies are usually less liquid than M1, meaning you can’t convert M2 money into cash as easily. The total stock of M2 was $21.27 trillion in January. M3: It includes all the elements of M2, plus institutional money market funds and large time deposits. As compared to M1 and M2, M3 assets have the lowest liquidity. The Fed no longer calculates M3. How Much Money Is in the World? The total amount of money in the world can be measured and expressed in many different ways, so it’s difficult to give a specific answer. If you’re curious about the total value of notes and coins in circulation, the Bank for International Settlements estimated it to be 8,275,000,000,000, or $8.28 trillion U.S. dollars, across 20 major countries plus the euro area in 2021, its most recent estimate. Of course, there are nearly 200 countries in the world, so this is just a rough estimate of the most narrowly defined — and perhaps easiest to quantify — category of money. The global M1 supply, which includes all the money in circulation plus travelers checks and demand deposits like checking and savings accounts, was $48.9 trillion as of Nov. 28, 2022, according to Visual Capitalist. That publication estimated the total value of the M2 supply to be $82.6 trillion. Money is also present in the form of investments and derivatives. The total market capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq is over 48,000,000,000,000 USD as of December 2022, according to Statista. The sum of Market Capitalization of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Market Capitalization of Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounted for 12,360,284,655,000 USD in March 2023. The total market cap of cryptocurrency, as reported by CoinMarketCap, adds another $1.16 trillion to that figure. (Source "gobankingrates, By Scott Jeffries March 16, 2023")
ECONOMICS:USGDP
by Options360
7
Central Bank Liquidity vs US MarketsThis chart presents central bank liquidity (credit: @DylanLeClair_ on Twitter for the calculation). It demonstrates a consistent pattern: when global liquidity decreases, the US markets also decline. The chart highlights the notable trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), particularly as the US markets attempt to push higher. This information provides insight for investors and analysts, enabling them to gauge market movements and understand the influence of global liquidity changes on the US markets. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:RUT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX
FRED:WALCL
by EquityEye
Nikkei 225 continues to outperform other Indices Nikkei 225 continues to outperform other Indices JP225 has been trending up since the third week of March. Economic news from both the US and Japan are the contributing factors to the bullish trend. In the short term, a breach of 30,000 seems likely. There are strong first-quarter earnings, coupled with the dovish Bank of Japan. Elsewhere in China, the numbers are rather disappointing for Industrial Production and Retail Sales. In the US, the current hot topics are the debt crisis, the hawkish Fed, and concerns about the safety of the deposits. Nikkei 225 index has been outperforming other indices. Geopolitics and encouraging fundamentals from Japan are making this asset a lucrative one. However, one needs to exercise caution when trading JP225, as it is considered one of the most volatile indices, said Abrar Bhatti, an analyst at Exness. On the daily charts, the technical resistance area of 30,000 is yet to be broken. If it does happen, the next resistance area will be the 30,300, followed by a high made on 21st September 2021. Moreover, the index is currently trading well above 20 days Moving average, making it lucrative for trend traders. On the contrary, bears will try to push the index down to the 29,300 area. The price of 28,500 will serve as an ultimate support area.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by Exness_Official
1