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$EUINTR -Europe's Interest Rates (December/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (December/2024) source: European Central Bank The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to cut its key interest rates for the fourth time this year by 25 bps in December 2024, as expected. This move reflects a more favorable inflation outlook and improvements in monetary policy transmission. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease, with forecasts of 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is also expected to fall, with a target of 2% in the medium term. Despite easing financing conditions due to the rate cuts, borrowing costs remain tight due to previous hikes still affecting existing loans. Economic recovery is projected to be slower than before, with growth expected at 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, and 1.4% in 2026. The ECB remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to its 2% target and will adjust its policies based on incoming data, without committing to a fixed rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
We have had the recession already; it's not yet to comeThis is an interesting chart. I don't think it is anything like charting stocks but there is a clear linear trend channel/line that M2 supply has been following. It is supposed to follow GDP growth to stabilise inflation but we all know the Fed doesn't always get it right and the two yoyo about the trendline. However, what is interesting is that we have had the largest drop in M2 in history over the last two years; there has barely ever even been a drop before; only a brief flat line. This makes it clear that we have been in recession for two years. The apparent stockmarket and crypto hype is not a result of excessive printing but rather a change in the way money in the economy is distributed; it is not being lent out for business but rather to buy assets instead. At the same time we have seen taxation and regulation that disincentivises entrepreneurs and favours existing conglomerates. I think this trend will accelerate as AI and robotics start to take on responsibility for producing goods and services and human beings simply trade assets with their money instead. Food for thought...
ECONOMICS:USM2
by cultureofwoods
Stoxx600 and M3 EUM3 contains more asset classes than M2. So, to find the signs to bubble, in a point of historical view, it might be better, to compare value of equities with M3. Therefore you see below, what it means. Market crisis/crashes are marked. The differences from 2007/08 to others: there we had an Interbanken problem: no one trusted each other and was not willing to overtake overnight credits. Second: the fed announced, to take several repo papera from the list, which means big problems for some primary dealers. All in all it was not a problem of to much money in the system, the problem was, that some money was on wrong places. Panic driven at the end. Whatever: actually, no doubt, we have to much money in the system.
FRED:WILL5000PRShort
by Flyerdan
Fed Funds Before CPICPI will be an important event tomorrow an hour before open. I believe the most important thing will be the reaction of the fed fund futures. Currently the target rate is sitting at 4.64 and the market is pricing in an 86% chance of that rate moving down to between 4.25-4.50. As long as this expectation remains, I think we'll have a bullish to flat end to the week. Downside would come if rate cut expectations changed due to an unexpected report. That would be a major shift right before the fed meeting so that seems unlikely, but it will be important to watch.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by AdvancedPlays
SPX vs. M2The chart shows the development between the Money supply of the USA M2 versus the prices of the Standard & Poors 500 an also the small and short recessions we had. Naturally, also the foreign holders of SPX equities, with their money the switch in USD were responsible for higher SPX prices. Neverthenless, the chart shows over the years a high coincidence between M2 and SPX. And also shows the irrational exuberations very good (Mr. Greenspan). Overall, also in historic view - there has to be a sharp correction in the SPX. Or a bloody flood of central bank money will provide for the required balance.
ECONOMICS:USM2Short
by Flyerdan
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US Unemployed to Employed as Indicator of Job Market HealthIn this chart, we use the following symbols: ECONOMICS:USNFP , FRED:UNEMPLOY ECONOMICS:USNFP represents the number of jobs created in a month. FRED:UNEMPLOY represents the number of unemployed individuals for a month. Assuming exactly 1 payroll per person , the ratio 100 * ECONOMICS:USNFP / ( FRED:UNEMPLOY + ECONOMICS:USNFP ) estimates the percentage of previously unemployed individuals who transitioned to employment in the month. If enough jobs are created, the current FRED:UNEMPLOY should equal the previous month's FRED:UNEMPLOY minus ECONOMICS:USNFP , as the jobs created should correspond to the unemployed who found work. When sufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed decreases, and the ratio increases. A "healthy" value for this ratio is around 2.5% , indicating that approximately 2.5% of unemployed individuals transition to employment each month . Conversely, if insufficient jobs are created, the number of unemployed rises, and the ratio decreases. Ratios around 0% or negative values are usually observed during or before recessions, indicating an unhealthy job market . For last two consecutive months, the ratio has been 0.17% , suggesting an unhealthy job market . Similar patterns were observed before the DotCom and GFC recessions. If this trend continues for several months, it strongly suggests that the US is either on the verge of or already in a recession. Historically, when the 30-week SMA crosses below the 50-week SMA, it signals a recession. This signal was triggered in June '24.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by eugene_sea
Money Supply Rockets and Crypto HedgingAs we know a base of economics in money related to supply and demand is scarcity creates value, however in cases of money supply increase (money printer doing its thing) Inflation ensues due to the fact that the more of something there is, the less valuable the individual pieces are... Well it's time to track Money Supply USM2 to notice a new parabolic-like burst in printing the last few months that can continue to move up as new forms of QE will prompt more money supply increase over the next year+ Hedge with anything worth of value, equity, crypto, real-estate, etc. For some one is easier to acquire than another, so move that money into something that will rise with value as inflation begins to show its ugly face again...
ECONOMICS:USM2
by SuperScholarXYZ
2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
EUR/USD Analysis UpdateSince my last update on November 11, 2024, the EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable decline, breaking through the targeted price of 1.0425 and even testing the 1.0365 support line. This represents a cumulative drop of 300 pips since my last analysis and a significant total decline of 630 pips since I initially announced this multi-month bearish cycle. Fundamental Context The fundamental backdrop for this movement is consistent with expectations. The "Trump trade" has delivered the anticipated outcomes, contributing to an over 5% decline in the EUR/USD. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties have driven investors toward safe-haven currencies, while the U.S. economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. An accompanying chart comparing GDP growth between the U.S. and the EU underscores this divergence, further supporting the strength of the dollar. Technical Analysis Key Support Level: After reaching the 1.0425 level, I previously suggested that we might see price consolidation as the market gathers strength for further declines. Notably, the daily candlestick on November 25 opened precisely at the 1.0425 level, with subsequent price action operating above this mark. -4-Hour (4H) Chart: Currently, the 4H chart shows the formation of a firm double bottom at the 1.0470 support line. This pattern suggests that the price action for this week is likely to operate within a range between 1.0500 and 1.0570. This consolidation phase could indicate a temporary stabilization before the market decides its next move. In summary, while the EUR/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, the current technical setup indicates a potential for consolidation in the near term. The formation of a double bottom suggests that traders may find temporary support around the 1.0470 level, with the range for the week expected to be between 1.0500 and 1.0570. However, the bearish trend remains intact, driven by fundamental factors that continue to favor the U.S. dollar over the Euro. As we move forward, close attention should be paid to key levels and any new geopolitical developments that could influence market sentiment.
FRED:GDP
by XAUBanker
1
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY November/2024 source: EUROSTAT Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected -The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
NFCI : From Greed to GriefTV is a very useful platform. It provides a lot of wonderful charts. But many are seldom used. To look into the future, there are 3 critical charts. NFCI is one of them. US10Y and Oil are the other two. What we see above is a lot of GREED currently going on - with financial conditions so loose. It is NOW at a quite critical level. In all probabilities, it can go UP. And if it does, it means shit hits the fan. ALL RISKY assets will DEFINITELY go BUST. My opinion is that if GREED is the cause - just like in 2007/09 with subprime - the aftermath is going to be extremely BAD. Take care and good luck.
FRED:NFCILong
by i_am_siew
2
$USCPCEPIMM -U.S PCE (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM October/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in October 2024, the same pace as in September and matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.4%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-year, core PCE prices rose by 2.8% in October, the most in six months, also in line with market estimates.
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
US Debt Exploding Relative To Real GDPUS debt has risen more than 90% since 2016, with no meaningful increase in economic growth inflation-adjusted (Real terms) meaning we pay more for goods and services showing a higher nominal GDP. As you can see in the chart the economy used to grow faster than debt and even outpaced debt in 70s, 80s and 90's. As I have shown before on tradingview, The annual US Gov't spending as a percentage of annual GDP is now 45% and it has been even higher. My question to you is this. next recession when Real GDP falls and politicians tell you we have to increase deficits and spending to "stimulate" the economy. How much higher will the debt go relative to real GDP?
FRED:GDPC1Long
by RealMacro
The Inverted Yield Curve - A History LessonThe yield curve has just recently reverted back to normal after the longest inversion in history. The yield curve has been perhaps the most reliable and only indicator needed to predict recessions. This time is no different. We are entering the final stages now, we are seeing the type of extreme greed levels needed for a major top. The fed has just begun cutting rates, which was obviously a mistake, but the fed makes a lot of mistakes, nothing new there. They cut way too early and inflation is not on target for their 2% goal despite what Powell claims. The actions of the federal reserve, congress, and Yellen among others over the past 4-5 years is going to cripple the global economy and cause a great deal of pain for all consumers. This time is no different, AI is not going to save, semiconductors are not going to save us, it is already done. The actions required for the recession have already taken place, nothing else matters. It is simply a question of time now. I hope I am wrong honestly, but after witnessing the recent market action I am more sure now than ever that the collapse is coming and will be soon. The good news is, this will present a generational wealth building opportunity somewhere around 2026. We will have a great recession, but we will recover and prosper in the long run. For bulls, I'm with you on riding this market up until it stops. However, the end is inching closer and closer. If the market continues up until the end of the year, we had better make some money on longs. We will need it. Godspeed.
FRED:T10Y2YShort
by AdvancedPlays
2
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications -The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.3% in October 2024 from 2.5% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since January. Electricity prices saw the smallest increase in six months (4.0% vs 15.2% in September), as the effects of the energy subsidy removal in May diminished. Also, gas prices rose more slowly (3.5% vs 7.7%). In addition, costs slowed for furniture and household utensils (4.4% vs. 4.8%) and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Moreover, prices dropped further for communication (-3.5% vs -2.6%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, prices edged higher for food (3.5% vs 3.4%) and housing (0.8% vs. 0.7%). Meanwhile, transport prices jumped (0.5% vs. 0.1%) amid faster rises in cost of clothing (2.8% vs 2.6%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 0.9%). The core inflation rate hit a six-month low of 2.3%, down from September's 2.4% but above estimates of 2.2%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.4%, a reversal from a 0.3% fall in September.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024. Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx