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The Chart The FRED Does Not Want You To See - All Wrong. Can't help but notice the incredible amount of people calling for recession this or no recession both on Bloomberg and CNBC using the 10Y -2Y without adjusting it for the money debasement? Could not be more clearer almost all of these "market experts" still living in pre 2008 with their degrees are going to be absolutely obliterated buy the CPI and eventual return of inflation. ADJ the 10Y -2Y to the M2 that includes the debasement of bail outs you can see the US bonds are in a spiral down and down. Why? You can't get Japan to YCC bond yields with printed currency to prop up the market this leaves smart investors selling the bonds and the yield goes up. The FRED on purpose has tried to create disinflation causing mass money to flow back into the US bonds to prop down the yield as the "experts want more return on inflation. Sorry Japan is having an inflation crisis and they need to sell the US bonds, and China is selling too. Now you get a failing US bond market that could be in a bear market on nominal value to inflation for the next decade. "experts" purchasing high yielding bonds that cannot outrun US CPI yes you're going to lose. "experts" longing instruments like TLT expecting mass cash to flow back into US bonds you're praying and hoping the FRED starts YCC or Japan sends their economy down the drain to save the US bond system. We've been in a recession since 2009, reason these "experts" on tv don't notice this is due to them owning assets that benefit from monetary policy and fiscal debasement. Bill Ackman has recently figured this out too taking a defensive position on this. Some are shorting bonds, some allocating to Gold, some allocating to Bitcoin. Is Bill Ackman insane? or has he simply figured the FRED used fake data to try get the market to flee from markets causing deflation. www.investing.com 2023 - We can't have a recession if we've been in one since 08.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by FederalXBT
1
Is AI excitement creating a stock market bubble?History shapes our views and we are always seeking analogs comparable to current events. Even if we know that ‘past performance is not indicative of future performance’, we are still comforted when we draw parallels to the past. Many are now drawing parallels of the current tech enthusiasm to the dawn of the internet. The quintessential example of a ‘bubble’ occurred in the late 1990’s. Some hallmarks of that time: When companies put the suffix ‘.com’ on their names, their share prices soared. Any company can do this and it has nothing to do with any real business prospects or potential. With the absence of profits or even sales, new metrics were created to make the case for progress in businesses like webpage visits or clicks. Many of the leading internet companies did not have positive earnings but, even in the more established S&P 500 which required profitability to get included, we approached price levels of 100x earnings for many large cap names. Hundreds of billions of dollars of market capitalisation was supported by dreams of wild future profits. And for what is happening in the first half of 2023: There are companies putting ‘AI’ (artificial intelligence) into their names, but it is not yet a huge number and, alongside this, the transition of big numbers of private companies tapping the public markets has not yet happened. Additionally, companies putting AI into their names have real business reasons for doing so. Naturally, investors will look to track measures like the intensity with which firms are using AI or engaging with data. Because people remember the 2000-02 ‘Tech Bubble’ period, we doubt that investors will also then say that ‘earnings don’t matter’ or ‘revenues don’t matter’—or at least that could still be some time away. When people look at how the big indices, like the Nasdaq 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index, are being driven higher by the largest companies, we see that all of those large companies are ‘real businesses’. They have revenues, they have cash flows, and they have earnings. It’s absolutely true that investors might look at Nvidia, as an example, and think that the multiple is too high for the growth that they expect to see—but it’s not a case where Nvidia is selling the dream of making a chip one day. Nvidia chips exist, they are sold, and Nvidia is the clear leader in providing the graphics processing units (GPUs) that allow AI to run. Even if the market could very well be ripe for a near-term correction after a nearly 6-month run, and even if that run was accompanied by a hype cycle in AI, we are not seeing signals that the broad technology focused stocks are in bubble territory. Let’s look at some numbers During the ‘Tech Bubble’ investors decided to not consider the classic statistics. We will not make that mistake here. We create a view of the ‘Expanded Tech’ sector. Companies like Meta Platforms and Alphabet are in ‘Communication Services.’ Amazon.com (even accounting for that .com suffix) is in ‘Consumer Discretionary’. Information Technology includes Microsoft and Apple. If we use this ‘Expanded Tech’ designation, we capture a broader cross section of technology.1 In 1998-2000, roughly speaking, this index was hitting a forward P/E ratio2 of more than 55x. The initial run up was based on prices and euphoria—the second spike into the 50x range would have been from the quick drop in forward earnings expectations when the popping of the bubble was clear. Looking at what the same Index is currently trading at in terms of forward P/E present, it is still below 30x. 28.4x is not ‘cheap’, so we are not seeking to indicate that tech is currently cheap in any way. Back in 2000, real interest rates were higher. However, we would note that this multiple expansion has occurred alongside a higher interest rate environment—not always an easy feat for stocks to achieve. Back in 2000, when the tech sector was over 55x forward earnings, real interest rates (measured by TIPS bonds) were double where they are currently. We can see how the ‘other stocks’ that are not tech have been doing by way of valuation. These other stocks never broke a 30x forward P/E ratio during the tech bubble. The current valuation of the ex-tech part of the S&P 500 is at 16.7x, and is very close to the average over the full period. This is not ‘cheap’, but certainly not getting into the more expensive territory. The bottom line: a bubble is not just ‘a bit expensive’ but, rather, a bubble represents a situation where there is a clear case that prices have gone extremely far beyond fundamentals. Forcing ourselves back to a classic figure, forward P/E ratio, we don’t see evidence of that being the case. Dealing with the AI hype cycle Still, we understand that performance in thematic equities can come in waves. One way to deal with these waves is to allocate to certain themes and then recognise that, over a cycle (something closer to 10 years than 5 years), there are going to be periods of strongly positive and strongly negative returns. In many cases, knowing whether the themes are working or not is something completely different from looking at the share price performance. What we know today is that, in the current quarter, Nvidia is expecting revenues in the range of $11 billion USD3. It will be critical to watch that trajectory, which then indicates a 12-month run rate above $40 billion. Do we actually see that materialise? Similarly, companies like Microsoft and Alphabet will continue to talk about the topic and launch new options for their customers. These are the kinds of things that we can honestly see and monitor. Signals of a greater degree of froth could entail seeing a much more robust IPO (initial public offering) market in specific AI companies, which may happen in the future but is not here yet. We are not saying that one day there cannot ultimately be a bubble—we are all still human, and human behaviours create bubbles—but what we are seeing at this moment is not yet there. Sources 1 This is akin to older definitions of the section before GICs made some changes to internet and communications stocks. 2 P/E ratio = price to earnings ratio. 3 Source: Factset, as of Nvidia’s earnings guidance given on their Q1 2023 earnings call. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NDQ100
by aneekaguptaWTE
WILL THE MONEY SUPPLY REALLY COME DOWN? Yes, it is possible that the total money supply will decrease. = The total money supply in an economy is affected by various factors such as monetary policy, banking system dynamics, and economic conditions. Here are some scenarios in which the total money supply may decrease: CONTRACTIONIST MONETARY POLICY Central banks have the ability to control the money supply through their monetary policies. When they pursue contractionary monetary policy, they take steps to reduce the money supply in order to control inflation. This can include selling government securities, increasing reserve requirements for banks, or raising interest rates, which can lead to a decrease in the money supply. BANK CRASHES OR BANK RUNS When multiple banks fail or experience a bank run, it can lead to a decrease in the money supply. When banks fail, the money that customers have deposited in those banks may be lost, resulting in a decrease in the overall money supply. ECONOMIC DOWNTURN During economic downturns, such as recessions or depressions, businesses and individuals may reduce their borrowing and spending, leading to a decline in the demand for credit and money. As a result, the supply of money may shrink. CONTRACTION OF CASH OR DEMONETIZATION Governments may withdraw certain denominations of cash from circulation or demonetize them altogether. This can be done for a variety of reasons, including combating counterfeiting, promoting digital payments, or curbing black market activity. In such cases, the total money supply would decrease as the currency withdrawn from circulation became invalid. DEVALUATION OR DEFLATION When there is a significant decline in the value of a country's currency (devaluation) or a sustained decline in the general level of prices for goods and services (deflation), the total money supply can effectively decline in terms of its purchasing power. While these scenarios can lead to a decline in the total money supply, it is important to note that in modern economies, the money supply is generally controlled by central banks, which strive to maintain stable and predictable monetary conditions to promote economic growth and stability. A significant and prolonged contraction in the money supply can have a detrimental effect on economic activity, so central banks generally seek to avoid abrupt contractions in the money supply. If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much. Thank you, and happy trading!
FRED:WM1NSEducation
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
NASDAQ 100’s special rebalance On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta. The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional rebalancing opportunities each quarter. A special rebalance outside the usual schedule is only happening for the third time in the index’s history, with the first two having been in December 1998 and May 2011. According to NASDAQ, a special rebalance may be triggered if the aggregate weight of companies individually accounting for more than 4.5% of the index tops 48%. Based on this, NASDAQ announced its plan to rebalance the index on 7 July. The new weights were applied before the start of trading on 24 July. What happened in the past? Strong rallies in tech stocks were behind the special rebalances both in May 2011 and December 1998. In 2011, Apple was among the stocks that saw its weight being reduced notably following a period of strong performance. And in 1998, it was Microsoft1. Performance of the index following the two rebalances does not give much to go by. Following the rebalance in December 1998, the NASDAQ 100 continued on its upward trend while the index was weighed down following the rebalance in May 2011. What it means for investors For investors looking to position themselves tactically to benefit from this development, arguments can be made to support both bullish and bearish cases. Passive money tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index will be forced to sell the biggest names on Wall Street which have made a significant contribution to the index’s performance this year. This could create some volatility in the short-term especially given the special rebalance has happened in the middle of the earnings season and market sensitivity to announcements may be heightened. Already in the week of 17 July, when Tesla and Netflix announced their earnings, markets reacted adversely to their cautious outlook for the third quarter. This also means that it would be hard to completely isolate the impact of the rebalance on stock prices. A dip in prices may, however, may be seen by some investors as an entry point. But while the move from NASDAQ is aimed at reducing the concentration of the biggest tech names in the index, the special rebalance does not mean that the NASDAQ 100’s risk profile has changed materially. The index follows a modified market capitalisation methodology which means that, subject to some limits of influence, the biggest companies will still occupy the largest weight. The index, therefore, continues to give investors a way to capture the sentiment in growth stocks, bullish or bearish. In some of our recent blogs, we have also emphasised how the NASDAQ 100 is not a way to capture specific tech megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI), despite investor sentiment towards AI driving the fortunes of some of the top names in the index. Dedicated AI strategies, such as the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, tend to have relatively low overlap with the NASDAQ 100. Again, the rebalance does not fundamentally change this. Closing word The NASDAQ 100 Index was launched in 1985. This is only its third special rebalance in almost four decades. For an index which is focused on growth stocks, it signifies how contributors to performance have been concentrated right at the top this year. For tactical investors, there may be opportunities in the short-term resulting from this. For others, it may be a reminder of the need for diversification. Sources 1 Source: CNBC report from 05 April 2011 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NDQ100
by aneekaguptaWTE
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band. The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions. It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again. Core inflation at highest level since 1982 The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above). Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982. Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market. BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations. More volatility beckons for risk assets The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher. On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023 2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023 3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023 4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023 5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by aneekaguptaWTE
$USIRYY -CPI# *M printToday is the Consumer Price Index numbers release. Consensus sits at 8% Inflation rate, while the previous month's number was at 8.2%. Many are forecasting for a 8.1% CPI number coming out. Feds have been expecting to bring inflation down via their instrument of interest rates by raising them at 4%, however, thus far, no success was found there for Feds in terms of bringing down inflation, let alone their 2% inflation target that for now, seems far-fetched target. While in this world of speculation we live in and nothing is for certain, it is best for traders to wait over CPI's release taking the risk off and trading cautiously . I would not suggest for any one to trade the news and it's volatility , but if you do so, please take measures on any occurring scenarios over CPI's number release. Very important day for everyone who is involved on Financial Markets. Very important day for Macro-Economics Data and overall Inflation around the World. What do you think it will happen with 2% Inflation target Feds got in place ? TRADE SAFE Note that this is not Financial Advice . Please do your own research or consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activities based soly on this idea
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Bottoming OutMoney that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of liquidity exiting the facility and effectively hitting circulation, which led to that money chasing assets and commodities. This chasing of assets and commdoities effecctively backed the 2023 Stock Market Rally. The target I had set for this move was down to the 0.886 of a Bullish Bat and now months later we can see that we came very close to it, but it would seem that rather than getting a full 0.886 retrace we are instead getting a confirmation-styled RSI reaction as price Bounces from the 1.618 Extension, which just so happens to align with an AB=CD formation it's made on the way down. I see this as an indication that the liquidity will soon stop flowing out from the facility and that liquidity will now begin to flow back to the facility, effectively taking money out of circulation, which would likely result in a decline in asset prices and a decline in the trading of Short Term Debt on the open market, which could then lead to Short Term Yields rising overall along with the US Dollar as institutions once again begin to lock up their dollars in this facility and chase yield rather than assets. Recently, I have been seeing a lot of weakness in the banking sector. That weakness may act as a catalyst for these institutions to once again park their money with the Fed, just as it did before. As always, my target for an ABCD is back to the Level of C, so we should see this rising back up about 30% before we can start looking for signs of this topping out again.
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by RizeSenpai
2
Durable goods orders indexHi everybody , you see on social media and influencers channels huge exaggeration about us economic data like this and they show all things strong and well but please se otherside of coin with me ,,, you should check that core durable goods orders doesnt change at all related to previous month all increasing on durable goods orders was based on transportation orders and if you eliminate that you get the reality .....i put for you the link to check this out by your own :https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-durable-goods-orders-59 always go to data deeply with me . comment your idea below. stay safe and logical
ECONOMICS:USDGO
by Logical_Markets
US inflation data is at multi year resistance..Us inflation is at multi year resistance.it shows inflation has already peaked. once it will start coming down markets will rally to the upside. Will markets makes new ath sooner or later ? Well who knows?? Ask yourself that question. Will fed stop rising rates for now? Very unlikely. Will fed could consider lowering the basis points ? Most likely. Will fed do it in upcoming meeting (23rd sep'22) this month? Unlikely.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by EsCApetHEmAtRiCS
1
DXY | JPY | CREDIT EVENT | DECRYPTERS Hi People Welcome to Team " DECRYPTERS" SO we Have 3 Main events this Week Lets Get A DEEP DIVE IN TO THEM 1- FED :- FED RATE HIKES ( PRICED IN ) + PRESS CONFERENCE ( HAWKISH ) AS we predicted Last time what Ever Happen Rate hikes will be increased we still stand by our words . Lets go further Either we are Getting 50 BPS This time or We are Getting 25 BPS next time WHY Is That So ... ?? The Attached Charts shows the overall level of financial conditions in an economy The conditions are on Same levels When FED was ABOUT to hike Rates Meaning . Further more —Dot plots , Fed curves ,GSUSCFI Index and Bloom Berg Index & Fall in Credit spread "ALL" Indicating ease in financial system Meaning this Data provide Evidence that FED Can increase More Interest Rates As Credit spread also falling to positive signal for economy — Rise In commodity Prices Like (RBAB Gasoline) Indicates more higher Prices in Energy sectors. — Lastly Good inflation trading above 20 years average & CPI Also printing higher on Y/Y Basis. 2- EURO RATE HIKES :- THIS comes With same Expectations Rate hikes + Hawkish Stance with & Lagarde speech. Lets Discuss JPY NEWS ON FRIDAY 3- BOJ REPORT :- A surprise can be Expected From Other Side Like They can Increase the range of "10 -years JGB" 50 BPS TO 75 /100 BPS ( BOND BUYING BACK PROGRAM) This will Cause bonds Prices to Rise / Yields to Fall & "JPY TO GET WEAKEN" —Other yield can React Negatively To IT ( LIKE US -10 YEAR)
FRED:NFCI
by DECRYPTERS
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35% There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RizeSenpai
Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds. Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process". To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively. The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading. And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan. Many are willing to fight for it. For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone. For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD. In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength. We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP. We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries. Currency strength comes from yield rates. The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields. Power = Money Supply * Money Strength MV = PQ Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg? Consider the following equations: MV = PQ Q = GDP M = M2SL V = FRED:M2V P = "price level" 1 / P = "currency strength" Currency Strength = Q / MV In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
FRED:GDP
by akikostas