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Economy

US Money Supply and Recession OutlookECONOMICS:USM2 There were four time US money supply trend has changed in last 60 years or so. The 1st one was with the Clinton Govt. with lower interest rate in 90's that started the boom and bust and 2001 recession. This trend starting in 90's changed with similar slope in 2008 when the interest rate went down to 0 after the Great Financial Crisis. This third trend line did reset during Covid resulting in current trend line with a near 90 degree angle of the slope - supply exploded with free money from government on top of 0% interest. This caused finally Fed to intervene and raise interest rate reacting to inflation. Starting 2022 we do see the reversal of the latest trend. If the steep slope of money supply is unsustainable either 1) we yield to a new trend line with similar slope increment like past two events 2) Merge to existing trend that started in 2008 . In case that scenario #1 materializes the new trendline which is nearly at angle vs. the previously emerged on in 2008 - we should see a so called small landing or a very mild recession. This should settle by around Q3 of '23. This might materialize with a rapid depletion of assets going below the dotted new trendline between April and July and then settles back by end of Q3. In Case scenario #2 we should see a gradual depletion of the excess money supply that would bring the money supply to the 2008 trendline. This probably would mean a rolling recession in various sectors. We have already seen that happened in Housing followed by Technology. In this case with the strongest balance sheet in the bank - probably financial is going to be hit last causing credit crisis in around 2024 and finally Fed to cut and a recession to be over sometime around 2025 as highlighted with the red arrow aka "hard landing". In either case - a recession in a presidential election year or the year before is rare if not unprecedented. This will not be desired in current social and political environment of United States - something to worry about for the '24 election outcome. And in either case - unless we (the tax payers) are paying for a incompetent and blatantly stupid Federal Reserve - I don't see how Fed can stop raising or pausing interest rate until money supply is curbed. So far the trend reversal is very short and not steep enough - so it will be unbelievable if Fed declares victory with inflation. In other words, in "normal world" pain should sustain and stocks and bonds should be shorted.
ECONOMICS:USM2Short
by dgtrader1981
Big drop in Employment rate.US Employment Rate. Lowest level in last 70 years was 55% employment rate. dropped to 51% last year. Another reason to stay Bearish, if employment is down and interest is up that isn't a great sign? When interest rates are high its harder to pay back debt so companies can layoff employees, can create a viscous cycle as jobs recessed. What is an economy made of? Jobs are fundamental and providing some kind of Proof or work to generate an asset, product or service for sale adds value to an economy, circulation adds value to an economy, lower costs on sustainable resources adds value to an economy. What else adds value to an economy? We need to find a way to tie all these markets and concepts together that are easier for Joe to understand. Employment rate Interest rate Money Supply Equities and Bonds Currency and exchange rates Companies, Corporates and stocks Assets and commodities If we drop below the red dotted 50% line that means that more people in the US are without jobs than with them, very important to stay above 50% employment rate
ECONOMICS:USEMR
by cryptodefrag
PERSONAL SAVING RATE RUNNING ON EMPTYThis chart shows that personal saving is at the lowest in US Record . TIC TIC TIC BOOM NO SAVINGS RECORD HIGH RATES ON CREDIT CARD . AND CONSUMER SPENDING AT A RECORD HIGH . . ONCE UNEMPLOYMENT TICKS UP I WANT TO PUT THIS OUT THERE THEREIS ONLY TWO THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN 1 PUT CASH DIRECT INTO THE ACCOUNT =INFLATION OR CONSUMER CREDIT DEFAULTS START Auto repossessions at a rate of 15,000 a month . or a 3th way debt forgiveness, The MACRO Picture over the next 18months, is NOT good Civil Unrest , homelessness.
FRED:PSAVERT
by wavetimer
1
Reverse Repo MarketReverse repo market cooling off. Let's see how this affects the Fed's positioning, considering the liquidity implications. Expecting a 6-8 month lead time for the liquidity to make it's way to the market. 1. Banks pulling liquidity to backstop any liquidity crunch 2. Banks expecting the fed to pivot, so they can get better returns lending that money out rather than using it for RR ops. Lock long term high rates, lending money out, now. Guessing this is front-running the fed. Publishing to keep an eye on it. IMO, Fed pivot != bullish. It means they likely overshot their desired outcome. Fed halting to re-analyze would be the best outcome in my eyes.
FRED:RRPONTTLDShort
by cmerged
USA $31.4T Debt: How will this affect BTC and Stocks?❗ WARNING ❗ You're about to read an unpopular opinion... Over the past few days, we've seen bullish price action across nearly all markets. Infact, this is the first time since 2013 that Bitcoin has closed so many green dailies consecutively. This entire market reversal seemed a bit sudden, and many claimed "bull trap". (I'm a believer in the Macro, so when it comes to pure charting without fundamentals, longing was the way to go over the past few days, no argument on this). However, another interesting this happened today - the U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit TODAY, amid a standoff between the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Joe Biden's Democrats on lifting the ceiling (which could lead to a major economic crisis in a few months). Suddenly, I thought to myself, the entire reversal seems even more suspicious. Now here's my unpopular opinion : What if this is part of an elaborate plan to eliminate some of the debt? The world is dependent on the dollar, if the US financial system is in trouble, so is most of the world. Everything is just too interconnected at this point. Across the giants of investment world, there are rising concerns about unsettling markets and risking a recession. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell predicted that the debt ceiling would be lifted sometime in the first half of 2023 under conditions negotiated by Congress and the White House. According to Reuters, the White House is refusing to negotiate with Republicans on raising the debt ceiling because it believes that the majority of them will eventually back off their demands, as a growing group of investors, business groups and moderate conservatives warn of the dangers of edging towards a default. The high-stakes deadlock is widely expected to last for months, and could come down to the last minute as each side tests the other ahead of June when the U.S. government might be forced to default on paying its debt. A default means being unable to pay. Because U.S. debt is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, due in part to its stability, a default could shake economies across the world. Americans could also face a recession, including higher unemployment, and the stock and bond markets would likely plunge. Today, a government that defaults may be widely excluded from further credit; some of its overseas assets may be seized; and it may face political pressure from its own domestic bondholders to pay back its debt. Today on Twitter, Elon Musk said openly that even if the government taxes every billionaire by 100%, it wouldn't even make a notable dent. According to him, the only way to make a notable dent in this debt is to tax the citizens even more. But what about the markets, the whales, the insider trading between banks, governments and large corporations ?? Trading markets is a multi trillion dollar industry. To make it more practical, the total value of global equity trading alone was 41.8 trillion U.S. dollars in the third quarter of 2021. We know that the Total cryptocurrency market is currently standing just under 1T. I'm unable to find data on the total worldwide value of the commodity market, if you do please comment below with your source. It is estimated that the total amount of money in the world is a couple of quadrillion. Whatever that means. Suddenly, 30 Trillion seems pale in comparison. Furthermore, investment options go far beyond just stocks, cryptocurrency and commodities. Some of the other less frequently discussed options include: 1. High-yield savings accounts 2. Certificates of deposit (CDs) 3. Money market funds 4. Government bonds 5. Corporate bonds 6. Mutual funds 7. Index funds 8. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) 9. Dividend stocks 10. Real estate Now imagine, scooping off a bit of cream from the top?? You wouldn't need to necessarily wipe out an entire market, but a good 20% to 30% drop across markets and Bob's your uncle ! The money machine carries on until next time it's overspent. Hike interest rates. Increases taxes. Inflation. Liquidate markets. Repeat cycle. So the point that I'm trying to get at is this - remember tot take profits. Nothing wrong with taking a hedge to manage your risk during these uncertain economic times. I personally won't be surprised if there's some major "news event" that sends the markets into a overnight flashcrash soon. I could be totally wrong, in fact I would prefer to be wrong in this case. What are your thoughts on this? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
FRED:GFDEBTN
by CryptoCheck-
25
CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession startsThe new CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article. DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes. If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500 What to do: If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
FRED:CDSP
by MayaUndefined
S&P 500 market will open for the forth day todayThe S&P500 index yesterday closed at its highest trade line level in three days at 3,999.26 as investors turned to US stocks. Most of the gains in this week's pullback in US stock prices have been led by bank stocks as well as shares of some media companies, which were probably untapped by individuals and businesses. The S&P is now up 5.2% this week This is not a piece of financial advice. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
FRED:SP500
by CryptoSanders9563