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Business sentiment turning up which is usually bullish Since the 70's, a significant improvement in the US business sentiment, as measured by the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, usually translated in a higher S&P500 in the following months and year. The only exception being 2021 when the pandemic put a halt to the rise in the stock market (but did recovered quickly). I used a cross of the 12-month rate of change above 6%. The most recent datas is showing the best improvement in business sentiment since the early 80's. This bodes well for a continuation of the bull market in the coming months.
ECONOMICS:USBOILong
by waverity
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
CPI forecastThe CPI represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. User fees (such as water and sewer service) and sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer are also included. Income taxes and investment items (like stocks, bonds, and life insurance) are not included. Prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The stochastic indicator is pointing to an increase in inflation over the next few months. However, that doesn't necessarily predict an immediate increase in inflation this month.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by Options360
Willshire5000 - the extended Buffett indicator - SPX 6084How to read the Char. In the main pan, there we find the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by global Gross Domestic. As you know, the Buffett indicator is built by the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by GDP USA. Meantime, together with the strong globalization, various experts thinking, that US companies make a lot of there revenues in foreign countries. And GDP US contains this not exactly. Example: an big company is contained in the willshire5000 as a price, but runrover etc. Is contained in a other country. Whatever: the extended Buffett Indicator is for sure and in a relatively sight in the amount better than the US GDP to measure a relative economic performance. Very impressive: This indicator shows only two times an extreme irrational Exuberation, as marked in the chart below and the marked losses in SPX. 100% for sure: we are very close to a third irrational exuberation. Big big troubles in US Market ahead. Dan, 12. dec. 24
FRED:WILL5000PRShort
by Flyerdan
Bearish Divergence on Indonesia Population Data: A Brief OpinionA bearish divergence was detected on Indonesia's population chart using MACD and RSI indicators. Typically used in financial markets to predict trend reversals, applying these tools to population data may not be relevant. Bearish divergence happens when data shows higher highs, but indicators show lower highs, hinting at weakening momentum. While this could suggest slowing population growth, such interpretation needs caution. This observation is purely experimental and not a reliable demographic insight. Proper demographic studies using statistical models are essential to derive accurate conclusions. This article reflects an opinion and highlights the need for further research. TradingView offers a wide variety of data and charting tools. This analysis is just an entry point to explore other insights on the platform. However, a deeper understanding and thorough research are necessary to draw meaningful conclusions. Please note that this analysis is not meant to be taken seriously as a demographic forecast. It is simply an unusual observation using technical indicators in a non-financial context. Apologies if this perspective seems unconventional or causes any misunderstanding. No offense is intended, and it is shared purely for educational and exploratory purposes.
ECONOMICS:IDPOP
by rahmadsaleh86
S&P 500 trends and market speculation for 2025As 2025 gets into full swing, traders are navigating a landscape shaped by two years of extraordinary stock market performance. The S&P 500 has delivered back-to-back annual gains exceeding 20% in 2023 and 2024, but analysts are signaling a more tempered outlook for the year ahead. With economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments in focus, investors are keenly watching for potential trends and reversals. S&P 500: Riding the momentum The S&P 500 ended 2024 with an impressive annual gain of approximately 23%, following a 24% increase in 2023. This marks the first occurrence of consecutive gains above 20% since the late 1990s. The rally was fueled by robust economic growth, cooling inflation, and a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, enthusiasm surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business agenda further bolstered investor sentiment. However, as we enter a new year, the market is showing signs of caution. December saw a pullback in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst monthly performance in over two years. The S&P 500 also registered its largest monthly loss since April 2024. This correction reflects profit-taking by investors and concerns about the Federal Reserve's revised stance on interest rate cuts.
FRED:SP500
by Exness_Official
Understanding Reverse Repo Agreements: The Q1 Liquidity DanceUnderstanding RRPONTSYD: The Quarterly Liquidity Dance and Its Impact on Markets The term RRPONTSYD, which stands for "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve," might sound complex, but it's pivotal in understanding financial market behaviors, especially at the end of each quarter. Here’s an exploration of this mechanism, why it spikes, and what it means for liquidity and the stock market. RRPONTSYD is essentially a tool used by the Federal Reserve where it sells securities to banks or financial institutions with the agreement to buy them back the next day. This process acts like a secured overnight loan from the banks to the Fed, designed to manage the money supply in the economy. Its purpose is twofold: to control short-term interest rates by offering a safe place for excess cash and to absorb excess liquidity from the system which could otherwise lead to inflation or push rates below the Fed's target. Every quarter, RRPONTSYD tends to spike due to a combination of tax payments and financial reporting. Large sums are moved to the Treasury General Account for tax obligations, significantly reducing the cash available in banks. Additionally, banks engage in what's known as "window dressing," adjusting their balance sheets to look more robust for quarterly reports by using reverse repos to manage their liquidity or leverage ratios. This spike represents a temporary parking of cash at the Fed, often for earning a small return or to manage financial obligations. The behavior of RRPONTSYD after this spike can have significant implications for markets: If these agreements remain high after a spike, it signals that liquidity is being withheld from circulation. This can lead to higher borrowing costs and less capital available for investment or consumption, potentially resulting in a bearish outlook in the stock market as investors might see this as an indication of a tighter monetary policy or reduced market liquidity. Conversely, a sharp drop in RRPONTSYD after a spike suggests that the cash is re-entering the financial system. This influx of liquidity can lower short-term rates, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. The stock market often reacts positively to this scenario, viewing it as a bullish sign since there's more capital available for stocks, potentially driving up equity prices. Understanding the dynamics of RRPONTSYD offers a window into how monetary policy, liquidity, and market performance are interconnected. Whether these agreements spike and then fall or remain elevated can serve as an indicator for market conditions. However, investors should always interpret these signals within the broader context of economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and global financial trends. To conclude, today represents a significant point as the markets open for Q1 2025 as the vast majority were closed through New Years Day. Bullish investors want to see an IMMEDIATE drop in these rates with the most bullish scenario dropping below the 100 billion dollar mark by early next week. A significant drop is the LIKELY scenario as this scenario playing out indicates a high probability of upside continuation for the markets
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
2025 STOCK MARKET PREVIEW – It's a BEAST!2025 Stock Market Preview – It's a BEAST! You are going to want to watch this video as it's JAM packed with great information for the new year! It may be long but aren't you trying to learn and become a better investor or trader?! Get ready for 1 HOUR of action-packed, game-changing insights: -Economic data -Technical analysis on NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM -My 2025 predictions -How to prep for the next stock market crash -How I'll be monitoring the markets What do you think will happen in 2025? Share your thoughts in the comments below! You won't find this much FREE CONTENT anywhere else! Let's dive in!
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RonnieV29
20
M2 needs to move to historic trend to avoid massive risks.The United States has the capacity to bailout the retirement system for Boomers and Millennials if we do not blow the "dry powder" of American Exceptionalism on pumping up the economy and markets for political and 1%er gains. America will be at peak Boomer dependence on Social Security & Medicare around 2030 and will not see a reduction of that dependence until more Boomers have crossed the Rainbow Bridge than Xers retiring. During the 2040s there will be a reprieve for the retirement system, but then in the 2050s the Millennials retire putting strain back on. The United States needs a sustained period of 3%+ GDP growth, moderate to low energy prices and productivity gains driven by technology. America should probably also merge & standardize Medicare & Medicaid to eliminate waste and fraud (Trumpcare?), as well as, start putting about 20-25% of Social Security payroll taxes into the S&P 500, 600 & 400 indexes with the rest in special 3% rate UST in the "lockbox" that Al Gore talked about 25 years ago. That will require seed money in the form of $10-20 trillion of QE, aka, the dry powder we can't waste.
FRED:M2SL
by Kirk_Spano
From Rate Cuts to Tech Booms: What Will Shape Wealth Management The wealth management industry in 2025 is set for transformative changes driven by evolving monetary policies, geopolitical dynamics, technological advances, and the rising importance of personalization. A significant shift will be seen in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy , transitioning from aggressive rate hikes to gradual cuts. This move, with rates projected to stabilize at 4–4.25% by year-end, will reshape investment strategies. Fixed-income assets may lose their current dominance, while equities, IPOs, and other growth-oriented investments are expected to gain appeal. Investors and wealth managers will need to diversify portfolios to adapt to this shifting landscape. Technological innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence and biotechnology, will further influence wealth management. These sectors promise robust growth, yet wealth managers must strike a balance between embracing these opportunities and maintaining diversified investment strategies. While AI tools can enhance decision-making processes, reliance on them without human oversight risks introducing errors and inefficiencies. The industry's focus will be on harmonious integration of technology, using it as an enhancement rather than a replacement for human expertise. Geopolitical developments, including Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency, will add complexity to the market. Bold fiscal policies and potential trade measures could heighten market turbulence, with the risk of trade disputes extending beyond the U.S.-China relationship to Europe. Wealth managers will need to prepare for this heightened volatility, creating adaptable strategies to navigate these uncertain times. At the same time, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations will continue to shape investment decisions. Regional discrepancies in ESG standards, such as those between the EU and the U.S., will pose challenges, requiring wealth managers to align portfolios with varying frameworks. Tax efficiency will also grow in importance as global compliance standards become increasingly intricate, emphasizing the need for location-specific strategies. Emerging markets will capture renewed attention as they evolve, offering opportunities to finance real business growth. However, entering these markets will demand meticulous risk assessment and management to balance growth potential with inherent uncertainties. Diversification across regions and asset classes will be essential in using these opportunities. Ultimately, the future of wealth management will hinge on personalization. Moving beyond generic fixed-income products, wealth managers will prioritize bespoke solutions tailored to clients’ unique risk tolerances and financial objectives. Dynamic, client-focused approaches will replace outdated methods, creating resilient portfolios that adapt to changing market conditions. In 2025, the industry will thrive by embracing diversification, innovation, and a profound understanding of global trends.
FRED:EFFRLong
by juliakhandoshko