July Economic Calendar - IMPORTANT EventsIt’s going to be a busy month for the Chair of the Fed (Jerome Powell), who delivers a speech today and then will testify later this month in front of Congress to provide updates on monetary policy decisions. Will we gain clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts this year, and if they are even being considered?
Crypto in June - How BTC responds
June saw significant volatility across the crypto market. Bitcoin fluctuated between price highs above $70,000 and lows of around $60,000, with substantial movement around 4 June when Bitcoin peaked above $71,000, before declining on 6 June and continuing a downward trend and falling to levels last seen in May. ETH and altcoins followed along, with Ethereum down approximately 11% in June . Pulling it back to the US markets, some analysts argue that the fluctuations was largely driven by uncertainty surrounding inflation data. The drop to $60k could likely be due to the reducing likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank this year, contrary to earlier investor anticipations (causing hesitation and a cautious approach).
Upcoming Events that could Affect Markets:
❗ Tuesday, 2 July 📢 Jerome Powell speech
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide an economic overview today, outlining current monetary policies. He will answers questions and the outcome of this speech can significantly impact financial markets and investor sentiment.
❗Wednesday, 3 July 📢 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
The upcoming FOMC minutes are expected to provide more details on the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, and its revised economic projections. Key points could include the reasons behind the more hawkish stance on rate cuts, and the implications of updated forecasts for unemployment and inflation.
❗Friday, 5 July📢 US Unemployment Rate
The US unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic health, influencing consumer spending, corporate profits and the social sentiment. During May the US jobs sector added 272,000 jobs, further casting doubt on the rate cuts in the US this year.
❗Tuesday, 9 July 📢 Fed Chair Powell testimony
Jerome Powell is set to discuss the state of the economy, monetary policy decisions, and also outline future policy intentions in his twice-a-year testimony in front of Congress.
❗Thursday, 11 July 📢 US Inflation Figures
The year-on-year and month-on-month inflation numbers provide crucial insights into purchasing power trends, influencing market expectations for interest rates and the overall economic outlook. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% in May, the smallest advance in core CPI since October 2023.
Take extra caution when over the next few weeks as volatility will be likely depending on the outcome of these events.
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