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The history of periods when unemployment was rising For comparison, the impact on BTC and altcoins. Interestingly, throughout Bitcoin's entire history, the best periods have been when unemployment was declining. The only exception was during the COVID era, when the largest amount of money in history was printed, inflating the markets. Currently, we are facing rising unemployment, unregulated inflation, escalating global conflicts, and a trade tariff war. How will the stock market and the crypto market react?
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Marek_Jasinski
Inflation vs gold correlation 60's to 80's Pattern.Gold seems to like inflation. Or, is inflation food for gold? These are chars that no one is showing you. According to this chart, Gold has a seven year bull run ahead of it that should top at some point in 2032. This a chart of the US Inflation rate on the 2 month (Blue line) right from the horses mouth, Bureau of labour statistics. On the top in gold or yellow is the gold chart. As you can clearly see, in the seventies gold was very heavily correlated with inflation. This is not my opinion this is a fact, and it will be again. THIS IS A 2 FOR ONE GUYS. INFLATION AND GOLD FORCAST ALL IN ONE!! Let me know what you think down below. Kind regards, WeAreSat0shi
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by WeAreSat0shi
FED REPO Index at same levels as 1998 and 2007: WARNINGDear viewers, traders and investors, Something very important could happens in the coming months, which may impact all financial markets: as you can see from the chart the REPO Index is at a very level, and this is not a good sign. Currently we are slightly between 1998's and 2007's levels which, by records, have been very bad years for global finance. What REPO is? Repo rate refers to the annualized interest cost when borrowing money using securities as collateral. Essentially, in a repurchase agreement (repo), you sell securities to a lender with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date at a slightly higher price. This price difference reflects the interest cost of the loan. Understanding repo rates is paramount for several reasons. First, they directly influence the cost of short-term funding in the financial markets, which can affect borrowing costs if you engage in repo transactions. Secondly, repo rates play a critical role in maintaining market liquidity. Disruptions in the repo market can lead to liquidity shortages and increased volatility, potentially impacting the value of your fixed-income holdings. What can influence REPO rates? Several key components influence the repo rate. Firstly, the quality of the collateral significantly impacts the rate. Higher-quality securities like government bonds typically command lower repo rates due to their lower credit risk. Conversely, lower-quality securities may require you to pay higher repo rates to compensate lenders for the increased risk. Secondly, the duration of the repurchase agreement affects the repo rate. Longer-term repos generally involve higher rates to compensate lenders for the increased interest rate risk associated with longer loan periods. Lastly, the delivery requirements for the collateral can influence repo rates. If you need to deliver the securities to the lender physically, it may result in higher transaction costs and potentially higher repo rates. Factors influencing repo rates Several factors significantly influence the repo rate you’ll encounter: Credit risk. The credit risk associated with the collateral directly impacts the repo rate. If the collateral is considered risky (e.g., lower-rated corporate bonds), lenders will demand a higher repo rate to compensate for the increased risk of default. You’ll often hear about “general collateral” and “on special” collateral. General collateral typically consists of high-quality securities with low credit risk, such as Treasury securities. “On special” collateral refers to high-demand securities, often due to short-selling activity or specific market conditions. Repo rates on “on special” collateral can be significantly lower than those on general collateral. Term. The term of the repo agreement plays a crucial role. Longer-term repos generally involve higher rates to compensate lenders for the increased interest rate risk associated with longer loan periods. Collateral delivery. The delivery requirements for the collateral can influence repo rates. Suppose you need to physically deliver the securities to the lender (on-site delivery). In that case, it may result in lower transaction costs and potentially lower repo rates compared to situations where tri-party repo agents are involved. Supply and demand. The supply and demand dynamics of the collateral significantly impact repo rates. When a particular security is in high demand (e.g., due to short-selling activity or regulatory requirements), its repo rate can decline significantly. This is because the borrower has an asset that lenders of cash may specifically want. Money market rates. Prevailing interest rates in the money market, such as the federal funds rate, strongly influence repo rates. If the cost of borrowing funds from other sources (like the federal funds market) increases, repo rates will generally follow suit to maintain competitiveness. Thank you very much for taking time to read my post, hope you may find it interesting!
ECONOMICS:USRR
by CryptoAndy85
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary, but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering. Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this. From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada. In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do… DRILL BABY DRILL. For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil. We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter. Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;) Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by jonnieking
4
$EUNITR - Europe Interest Rates $EUNITR (January/2025) source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%. This move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, with price pressures easing in line with projections. While domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating, and corporate profits are absorbing some inflationary effects. Despite persistent tight financing conditions, the rate cut is expected to gradually ease borrowing costs for firms and households. The ECB remains data-driven and has not committed to a predetermined rate path, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Oilseed Volatility: Global Production and Trade AdjustmentsThe global oilseed market is experiencing significant volatility driven by changes in production levels and trade dynamics. There has been a decline in global oilseed production, including soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. This article analyzes these shifts in production and their profound impact on vegetable oil and meal markets. Decline in Global Oilseed Production Global oilseed production for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast to decrease slightly compared to previous estimates. The WASDE report indicates that the world oilseed production outlook is revised downwards by 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million metric tons this month. This reduction is primarily due to lower rapeseed production in India, Russia, and Uruguay, as well as decreased soybean and sunflower seed outputs in Russia and China. Soybean Production CBOT:ZS1! Soybean production in the U.S. is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from earlier projections. Significant reductions in soybean output were observed in states such as Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Lower yields and reduced harvested areas are contributing factors to this decline. Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Production ZCE:OI1! BET:NAPR1! In addition to soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower seed production have also faced challenges. For instance, European Union countries like Germany and France have reported lower rapeseed yields due to unfavorable weather conditions Similarly, sunflower seed production in Ukraine and Russia has been affected by geopolitical tensions and logistical disruptions Impact on Vegetable Oil Markets The decline in global oilseed production has direct implications for the vegetable oil market. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil are critical components of the global edible oil supply chain. Soybean Oil The USDA projects that soybean oil used for biofuels will be around 13.6 billion pounds for the 2024/25 marketing year. However, with lower soybean production, there is increased pressure on available supplies for both food and industrial uses. This scarcity could lead to higher prices, impacting sectors reliant on soybean oil, such as the food processing industry and biodiesel producers. Rapeseed Oil: Lower rapeseed production has led to a tightening of rapeseed oil supplies. Countries heavily dependent on rapeseed oil imports, such as the European Union, may face increased costs and potential shortages. The European Union's reliance on imported rapeseed oil from Canada and Australia has become more crucial, but even these sources are experiencing some declines in production. Sunflower Oil: Sunflower seed production cuts in Ukraine and Russia have further exacerbated the situation in the sunflower oil market. These two countries traditionally account for a significant portion of global sunflower oil exports. With reduced availability, alternative oils like palm oil are becoming more prominent, although they come with their own set of environmental concerns. Impact on Meal Markets Oilseed meals, particularly soybean meal, play a vital role in the animal feed industry. The reduction in global oilseed production has cascading effects on the availability and pricing of these meals. Soybean Meal Global soybean crush is projected to increase by 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million metric tons for the 2024/25 crop year. Despite this increase, the overall lower soybean production means tighter supplies. Brazil’s strong first-quarter soybean meal exports, especially to Asian markets, have contributed to this rise. However, the upward trend in soybean meal prices is evident, with forecasts indicating an increase to $310 per short ton. Rapeseed Meal: Similar to soybean meal, rapeseed meal is also witnessing price pressures. Reduced rapeseed production in key regions like Europe has led to higher prices for rapeseed meal, affecting livestock and poultry industries. Farmers may need to seek alternative protein sources or adjust feeding strategies to manage costs. Sunflower Meal: With the decline in sunflower seed production, sunflower meal supplies have also tightened. Ukraine and Russia's reduced contributions to the global sunflower meal market have forced import-dependent countries to diversify their sourcing strategies. This shift has led to increased competition and higher prices for sunflower meal. Trade Dynamics and Market Adjustments The decline in global oilseed production has prompted several trade adjustments: Export Shifts: Countries like Brazil and Argentina are stepping up their soybean exports to fill the gaps left by the U.S. and other major producers. Brazil's soybean crush is expected to reach 56.947 million metric tons, driven by robust demand for soybean meal and oil. Meanwhile, sunflower oil exporters like Turkey are exploring new markets to compensate for the loss of Ukrainian and Russian supplies. Import Diversification: Key importers such as China are diversifying their sources to mitigate the impact of reduced supplies from traditional partners. China's soybean imports remain strong, but there are signs of increased reliance on Brazilian supplies. Additionally, European countries are turning to alternative suppliers for rapeseed oil, such as Australia and Canada, to meet their domestic needs. Logistical Challenges: Geopolitical tensions and logistical issues continue to pose challenges for the oilseed trade. Port congestion and shipping costs have risen, complicating the movement of oilseeds and their derivatives. For example, sunflower seed oil exports from Ukraine have faced delays due to ongoing conflicts, impacting global supply chains. Price Trends and Market Outlook The combination of lower production and disrupted trade flows is exerting upward pressure on oilseed and related product prices. Vegetable Oils: Prices for vegetable oils, including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil, are expected to rise. Soybean oil prices are forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound, but given the tight supply scenario, future increases are likely. Rapeseed and sunflower oil prices have already seen hikes, reflecting the scarcity in the market. Oilseed Meals: Similarly, oilseed meal prices are on an upward trajectory. Soybean meal prices are projected to increase by $10 to $310 per short ton, reflecting the higher demand and constrained supply. Livestock farmers and poultry producers will need to adapt to these rising costs, potentially leading to higher meat prices in the coming months. Conclusion The decline in global oilseed production, encompassing soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds, has introduced significant volatility into the oilseed market. This downturn affects not only the supply of oilseed-derived products like vegetable oils and meals but also influences broader agricultural and food industries. As countries and companies navigate these challenges, diversification of sourcing and adaptation of production methods will be crucial for maintaining stability in the market. Investors and stakeholders should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions and anticipate potential risks and opportunities in the evolving landscape of the oilseed sector.
ECONOMICS:WWOPI
by juliakhandoshko
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR (January 2025) source: Federal Reserve -The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024. The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewhat elevated, removing the reference to ongoing progress toward the 2% target. The Fed also said the economic outlook is uncertain, and is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by Mr_J__fx
MARKET CORRECTION TIMING APPEARS IMMINENTThe chart provides a compelling historical perspective of major S&P 500 corrections and their relationship with Federal Reserve interest rate cycles. It highlights three significant market downturns (the shaded areas in red): the Dot-com Bubble (-49%, March 2000 - October 2002), the Global Financial Crisis (-57%, October 2007 - March 2009), and the COVID-19 Crash (-34%, February 2020 - March 2020). A notable pattern emerges when examining the relationship between these market corrections and interest rate peaks - market downturns often follow periods where interest rates have reached their cyclical highs. The blue line (in the chart below) representing the Effective Federal Funds Rate shows clear peaks before each of these major market corrections, suggesting a historical correlation between rate cycle tops and subsequent market pullbacks. Given that current Federal Reserve rates appear to have peaked around 5.5% and started to decline, historical precedent suggests we could be approaching a correction phase in the relatively near term. The chart's pattern indicates that once rates stabilize at their peak, as they have recently, the window for a potential market correction typically opens within a matter of months. However, while this pattern is interesting from a historical perspective, it's important to note that past patterns don't guarantee future market behaviour, and many other factors contribute to market corrections beyond just interest rate cycles. In my opinion we may be just missing a catalyst? Was this week DeepSeek correction the start of it? Only time will tell. Keep nimble! Keep cautious! 
FRED:DFFShort
by RichmondHillCM
US FEDERAL WORKERS and COMING DECLINEThe chart Posted is that of Government worker Has PEAKED ! As you can see under Elliot Wave We have reached the point That Governments thru out the United States has FIVE LEGS up ! and to which the jobs created over the last fours has been where most jobs have been. It is my view that this has come to an end ! and that we are going to see a true sea change . Timing is for a decline to start NOW !This should also slow down the rate of Debt and inflationary forces ! . I stand by my work and the data the US Unemployment levels have bottomed and a upturn that started last year will see it increase to a level in the mid 5 to 5.5 % .and that the recession started last year mid summer early spring . If cycles based on the data we should see the peak in unemployment in Oct 2026 and the low in the Liquidity cycle and recession low . Best of trades WAVETIMER
FRED:USGOVT
by wavetimer
Money supply is increasing again. Back to QE?You can see that the balance sheet (total assets) of the ECB is at the bottom of a channel. Just like that of the FED (see my previous post). Given the current financial and economic situation in the EU, I expect a switch from QT to QE within a few months. If I look at the money supply of the EU, the previous ‘ATH’ (September 202) has already been broken. For the US, this is now very close. In other words, if the market crashes now, that will certainly be a reason to increase the money supply further and to switch from QT to QE. Interesting times. I foresee a repeat of the period 1995-2000! This means that the final phase of the bull market has yet to begin.
ECONOMICS:EUCBBSLong
by Krijgsman
Are we entering QE? I find it hard to imagine that the Balance Sheet of the FED ('total assets') fits into some kind of channel or TA, but I have to be honest that I do see some patterns here. Total Assets is in a channel that has been going on for years, the end of which seems to be in sight. This means that the transformation from QT to QE is slowly taking place (this could take months). In addition, it seems that the RSI is also 'oversold' and seems to be making its way to go up. Of course, QT can continue, but I do expect QE to take place somewhere in Q2 or Q3 2025... This is not a tradable asset, so of course you should take this with a grain of salt!
FRED:WALCL
by Krijgsman
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 3.6% (December/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in a year (6.4% vs 4.8% in November), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.7% vs 9.9%) and gas cost (5.6% vs 3.5%) increased at the fastest rate in four months with the absence of energy subsidies since May. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.9%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.6%), transport (1.1% vs 0.9%), furniture and household utensils (3.0% vs 3.7%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.6%), recreation (4.0% vs 4.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-2.1% vs -3.0%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3.0%, up from 2.7% in November and matching consensus. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.6%, the highest figure in 14 months.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
US DEBT Outpacing Private Credit 2 to 1Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few while socializing those liabilities onto the backs of the many. The many will not realize this is happening until it is too late. The few will sell their bonds, take their money, and move it overseas, collapsing the currency's value, and leaving the many to pay for the debt with taxation, austerity and inflation. (even hyperinflation) The more Gov borrows to deficit spends the more it has to deficit the closer we get to the point of no return. That's what this chart is showing you. The direction we are heading.
FRED:TOTBKCRLong
by RealMacro
Need to Show You Something...... every time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates the indexes have taken a fall ...in video I show every BOJ rate hike since the early 2000's along with indexes at the durations ... there are three spots: ... 2000-2001 ... 2006-2010 ... 2024-Present ... BOJ recently upped their interest rate from 0.25 to 0.50 Lets see what happens this year. Also remember that bonds have recently entered a 20-30 year cycle. Certain industries will thrive here.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by NebulousMercuria